Salt City Seven: Lineup Quirks, Courage to Fail, Teams to Watch & More

Early lineups involving Kessler have been promising. (Rick Egan, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

Data around lineup combinations are increasingly ubiquitous in NBA discourse, endlessly fun, and of course consistently mischaracterized at the same time.

Lineup math is not, contrary to popular belief, terribly predictive. In the postmodern, meta-Moneyball era of basketball, too many people misapply or over-extrapolate the numbers they see here as predictive, if not immutable arithmetic behind amassing wins. Step 1: identity winning lineups. Step 2: play those lineups more. Step 3: repeat until 82-0. It’s a a beautiful theorem in a world obsessed with unlocking basketball alchemy. If only it worked like that.

Five-man lineup data especially is more subject to wild fluctuation than anybody likes to acknowledge in those overly linear calculations. For example the Utah Jazz only have four 5-man combinations that have played even 50 minutes together, and those minutes have been spread across 11 or more games. The early returns on those lineups could look really promising, but if the next, say, 20 minutes includes some bad stretches or big opponent runs, you’ll be amazing at how quickly something we were all convinced was a good quintet can regress in the stats. (This happened after the Jazz’s big 2019 acquisitions; the lineup involving arguably the best five Jazzmen pre-Jordan Clarkson trade played mostly well together, but then were on the court for one disastrous run and their collective net rating plummeted. Then-coach Quin Snyder put that lineup in mothballs, because it was officially a Bad Lineup, and Bad Lineups shouldn’t play. Forget that the determination was made on the basis of a high-variance stretch against a small sample size.)

Looking at 2- and 3-man combinations starts to yield more convincing sample sizes, but even then, there is no guarantee that the performance will hold up (or stay bad).

That said, it’s still super interesting. If not predictive, lineup math is still *descriptive*, as it tells us what has or hasn’t worked so far and how that could impact different team-building concepts if — big IF — the trends hold.

Here then are a few pieces of lineups information that could be interesting as the rebuilding Jazz continue to imagine the different ways their future could unfold with (or without) the current players on the roster.

Marksman + Skywalker

There are a lot of really promising data points involving the two players whose emergence has been a major storyline for the 2022-23 Jazz: Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler. Those two are +7.6 together so far, with a solid 114.7 offense and an elite 107.0 defense. That’s a really strong foundation to have discovered, since both guys figure to be long-term Jazzmen.

A lot has been made of the stellar net rating (+12.8 currently) when those two play with Kelly Olynyk, but that number probably doesn’t matter all that much in terms of figuring out Utah’s future title equity, because it’s unlikely that the almost-32 Olynyk is a major part of future contending Jazz rosters. Through that lens, it’s far more interesting to see how the duo is complemented by other players. The Collin Sexton-Markkanen-Kessler trio is +10.8 to date. That’s encouraging. Those lineups don’t score as well, which makes sense since Kessler’s presence complicates Sexton’s work as a driver and the Jazz are still working on honing the latter into a more complete ball handling guard. But they defend really well — again, not surprising since Sexton’s balls-to-the-wall defensive approach is less risky with a legit paint defender at his back.

Markkanen, Kessler and Ochai Agbaji have only played 19 minutes together, and are -0.7. Statistically speaking, that’s close to meaningless. Markkanen, Kessler and Jordan Clarkson — whose long-term Jazz future is a hot topic these days — are +11.1 in 296 minutes.

Creators

Per Cleaning the Glass, the Jazz offense produced 119.3 per 100 non-garbage time possessions whenever at least one of Mike Conley or Clarkson is on the floor. When both sit, that number drops to 111.1

The implication here is that trading one or both could really influence the Jazz’s ability to produce enough points to offset their bottom-quartile defense. For what it’s worth, the same is true if you repeat that exercise with Conley and Olynyk, who is also an important facilitator from the center position when he plays. The Jazz’s offensive efficiency is 119.3 with one or both, 113.2 when the two are sitting.

Losing any of those three will seriously hamper the Jazz offense. That’s partly why I don’t buy the argument that the Jazz couldn’t possibly enhance their lottery odds with 33 games left; IF they wanted to, they could make the foundation a little wobblier by trading some of those creators away. Take two of Conley/Clarkson/Olynyk off this roster and the Jazz would have a hard time hanging onto their #5 offensive ranking.

Interesting Vanderbilt finding

While checking in on some of the big man configurations recently, I stumbled upon some Jarred Vanderbilt data that I’m not quite sure what to do with.

We used to talk about the “Conley Effect” — the fact that every Jazz player had a significantly better net rating when playing alongside Conley than when without him. Something weird is happening with Vando that is, um, the inverse of that.

Take this with all the appropriate caveats, please.

I… don’t know what to do with that. On the one hand, lineup numbers are totally fickle, and in another 10 games those data could say something else. On the other hand, it’s pretty unique for that to happen across the board. It would be easy to over-extrapolate here and wind up somewhere in the vicinity of “Vando: bad,” and that’s totally not fair. There are at least eight other variables driving all of these numbers, and again LINEUP DATA ARE NOT PREDICTIVE, they’re descriptive. But it still feels somehow meaningful to look up and down the roster and see this impact played out in every single possible combination. 

And again, as it relates to the future the biggest question here is whether the Markkanen-Vando duo, or Kessler-Vando, or Sexton-Vando are going to hold up. Maybe they won’t. Ochai Agbaji-Vando was -0.7 less than a week ago and is now +3.0, virtually the same as when Agbaji plays without him, another sign that these numbers move around more than people acknowledge.

Plus-minus superstar Rudy Gay

The mystery of Gay’s miraculous impact on Jazz lineups remains in effect, despite the fact that we all see the veteran wing visibly struggle on an individual level.

Sarah Todd already wrote the definitive “why Rudy Gay?” piece, so there’s little benefit to rehashing that. But I will say this: the four guys who make the Jazz defense measurably better when they play are all guys with positional length: Gay, Talen Horton-Tucker, Markkanen and Kessler. At some point, it probably just matters that Gay is 6’8″ with a positive wingspan and a beefy build. Like, Vanderbilt likely has better defensive technique at the 4 spot than Gay, but Gay is just bigger, longer, stronger. Similarly, Malik Beasley is probably a better defender in behavioral terms than THT, but the latter has a 6’10” wingspan.

That’s my working theory at the moment for understanding Gay’s team-best on/off numbers.

**

Maybe these things will hold up. Maybe they won’t, But all of them are interesting and (Gay note aside) have an actual impact on how the Jazz could approach certain roster decisions in the short and long term.

In the words of Jazz players/people

“I think you have to have the right dosage of failure, if that makes sense. You don’t want a guy to continue to fail over and over and over again. You want them to have enough success that they believe in the process of what they’re doing, and they believe in those situations that we’re putting them in as a staff. But failure is a big part of existing in the NBA.”

-Will Hardy as the Jazz prepared to face Brooklyn

It’s kind of ironic that Hardy uttered this before the Jazz-Nets contest, because Friday night was a pretty rough outing from several guys, especially the rookies Hardy was asked about leading up to this question.

Kessler struggled with the long, lean and athletic Nic Claxton, and consequently played fewer minutes than in any of the last six. Agbaji reverted to his invisible alter ego after a week and a half of playing decisive, impactful basketball. In 12:39 of playing time a long rebound was his only statistical contribution to the game.

But to Hardy’s (perhaps prescient) point, failure is far from the worst outcome. The only way to avoid failure altogether is to never venture beyond one’s comfort zone, and that means never growing. So the courage to fail is actually a really important part of the learning process. It’s the whole idea behind the growth mindset, the school of thought behind a best-selling book.

Key stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week

49%

Among other things, Markkanen is the league’s best volume outside shooter in first quarters. Of the 32 players with the most first-quarter attempts from deep, Markkanen’s 49% in opening quarters is tops. 

9

By now you’ve heard a lot of stats about the uncommonness of Kessler’s 20-20 game against Minny. But did you know that he needs just one more double-double to tie Mark Eaton for the second most double-doubles by a Jazz rookie (10, one more than his current nine). Karl Malone holds the record at 32, meaning that Kessler is already has the most of any Jazz rookie in 37 seasons. 

6, 0

Mike Conley logged three straight games with 6+ assists and no turnovers, which it turns out matches the longest such streak in NBA history. The run ended on Friday night when he was charged for an offensive foul against the Nets. He is still one of just two players this season (Fred VanVleet) — and the first Jazzman since John Stockton’s second NBA season — to have a 4-game stretch with at least 32 assists and no more than a single turnover.

70.4%

Conley is also now the NBA’s top corner shooter (among guys with at least a handful of attempts).

Projecting the Jazz’s place in the bigger picture

Really briefly, here are a list of three teams you be watching if you’re rooting for the Jazz to make the playoffs… and three you should be watching if you want the Jazz’s season to go the other direction.

One the one hand, if you’re someone who wants to see the Jazz get as high a seed as possible, you can probably ignore the immediate struggles of teams like Phoenix, Dallas and even the Warriors. Those teams have too much high-end talent not to figure it out to some degree, and FiveThirtyEight currently gives them 82%, 75% and 68% odds of making the playoffs, respectively. FiveThirtyEight doesn’t love the Clippers, but if they ever start focusing on, you know, playing games instead of managing loads, they have the talent to pull away. Instead, focus on:

• LAL: The Lakers acquired Rui Hachimura on Monday and still have Patrick Beverley’s contract and two valuable firsts if they want to pursue any other win-now deals. They’re also 9-5 over their last 14.
• OKC: The Thunder are as impressive in their last 18 games (12-6) as the Jazz were to start the season, and they have a legit all-league candidate in 31-5-6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They look like they may have decided to start trying to be good.
• Min: Oh yeah, those guys. The team that owes most of its draft future to the Jazz. They are also a major competitor for a play-in/playoff spot in Utah’s range. They’re 8-3 in the New Year despite injuries, and while Karl-Anthony Towns now says the initial 4-6 week timeline was incorrect, Rudy Gobert is listed as day-to-day.

At the other end of the spectrum… even if the Jazz went aggressively after lottery odds, they’re not catching the bottom four teams. The Lakers and Bulls (or the Wolves if they wind up down here) don’t own their own picks so they won’t have motivation to out-lose anybody down the stretch. OKC and Indiana look like they’re trying to be good. Which makes the three teams to watch:

• Was: The Wizards are finally full healthy, and they just won three of five. The did give up Hachimura for a song, but they have plenty of other forwards to spread his minutes around. Their 538 projection (38) is within range of the Jazz’s (42) if Utah made some seller trades and if Bradley Beal’s return fortified the Wiz.
• Tor: The Raptors also project to 38, but they have underperformed all season. They’re tricky though because they have the assets (including young players on good deals) to add some wins to their late season schedule. They’re also not a great candidate for a total reset since their best players are already all 28 or younger.
• Por: The Blazers have had all their starters healthy throughout their current 2-8 malaise, but they too project to 38, meaning they are “catchable” if the Jazz shift their focus at any point. Only two of those losses were truly bad ones: at home to (surging) Orlando, and falling from 25 ahead at home to the Lakers.

The Raps, Blazers and Wizards are also (in that order) the three teams who have underperformed their expected wins based on efficiency differential — meaning they might be a little better than what their records say. 

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz outing

Jazz 126, Wolves 125: Walker Kessler. The first 20-20 game by an NBA rookie in nine years made this a pretty easy one, but the thing is that doesn’t even tell the story of how he controlled the paint defensively… Sexton is probably #2 here. The complexion of the game changed when Gobert checked out after 5 minutes, and suddenly the Jazz looked unsure of how to puncture Minny’s defense with 5 mobile guys walling off the paint. Sexton solved that for the Jazz, on a 19-4-4 performance. Agbaji had another nice scoring game (17) but combined it with all the effort-and-awareness stuff we lauded him for last week. Conley 14-8-6 and was a P&R wizard, Vando had 15-8-4, and Clarkson’s 21 included the game-winning free throw. 

Jazz 126, Clippers 103: Lauri Markkanen. Oh hey, Lauri. Back from a short injury absence, Markkanen had seven points in the first 80 seconds, 24 by intermission, and 34 for the game. He also had 12 boards, two blocks, a +26, and a nasty dunk. Conley was the secondary headline with 17 and 9 assists in front of a team that reportedly covets the veteran table-setter, and Kessler had another double-double. 

Strong in Defeat:

• Jazz 106, Nets 117: Collin Sexton. Clarkson scored a lot more (29-4-5) and Markkanen (22 & 11) made it interesting with late shots despite being smothered by Nic Claxton all night. But on a game when the Jazz lacked energy and had problems piercing Brooklyn’s defense, Sexton tangibly shifted the dynamic of the game. After the Nets led by 13 early, it was Sexton’s intensity and paint-breaking drives that gave them some life. He finished with 17 points, but this one is more about the spiritual impact.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action

Monday 1/23, Jazz vs. Hornets: Former Jazz All-Star Gordon Hayward played his second game of 2022 on Saturday night as the Hornets secured their first win streak since Thanksgiving weekend. Charlotte is still in fairly rough shape, though, at 6-19 in their last 25. They’ve only had their three supposed stars — Hayward, LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier — together for eight games this season (2-6). That has opened the door for Kelly Oubre Jr. (20.2) and PJ Washington (15.4) to have career years as scorers, but Charlotte is the worst true shooting team in the league and the second worst offense overall.

Wednesday 1/25, Jazz @ Blazers: The Blazers suffered a *tough* loss on Sunday, as they blew a 25-point lead to the Lakers at home. It was part of a 2-8 stretch for Portland, despite being mostly healthy. Their five preferred starters have all been available in each of those 10 games, and Damian Lillard has even been playing really well, at 33, 4 and 8. Their shortcomings start on defense: they allow the most rim attempts of any team in the league, and overall their opponent’s expected eFG% based on shot location is also the worst in the NBA. They and the Jazz are both in the bottom 8 for points allowed in the paint per contest, and both below average in terms of scoring their themselves.

Saturday 1/28, Jazz vs. Mavs: Speaking of points in the paint, the NBA team least likely to punish opponents in the offensive lane is Dallas, at 42.0 paint point per night. But the Mavs make up for it by launching a ton of threes (a league-leading 13% of their shots come as corner threes, per Cleaning the Glass, and they are second to GSW in threes overall) and by shooting above league average in every shot zone. All that adds up to a top-5 offense, but they too struggle at the other end. Luka Doncic has been sensational this year. His 33.6 point-per-game average is a few thousandths of a point behind Joel Embiid for the highest average, but nobody can top Luka’s 1,444 total points this season.

Random stuff from the Jazz community

One fun way of looking at the season and just how this group congealed is to consider the sheer number of ways Jazz players are having career seasons.

Here is every rotation player (non-rookie) who is putting up a career best this season in the five main counting stats or in important efficiency metrics. (* = tied previous best season.)

Career-best seasons as of 1/23/23

That will do it for another week. Trade season 2.5 weeks out, All-Star reserves next week, and much more fun to come.