Salt City Seven: Rotation Problems Continue, Schedule Lightens & More

Jeff Green is part of a bench unit for Utah that’s just not getting it done lately.

Every week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

An important quote from Jazz players or personnel from the week

“It’s something we’ve been conscious of during the course of the year… Our rotations are always something that you look at.

“Any time you start changing things too much, it doesn’t give a certain group of guys the opportunity to find a rhythm together.”

-Quin Snyder on Utah’s rotation and bench struggles

You probably don’t need me — or even Snyder — to tell you that the Jazz have a bench problem. At least a handful of their losses have come on nights when the game turned as soon as Utah turned to its reserves. In too many of their wins, they’ve had to claw back to erase a hole that the bench players had dug. That was the case again on Friday night, even as Utah hosted the worst team in the association. It’s problematic.

That was the context for what became a bit of a meandering answer from Snyder on bench play. He acknowledged that there have been games when different bench players or the reserve unit as a whole have stepped up in a major way, including in Utah’s Wednesday win in Minnesota. But the Jazz coach knows that on far too many other nights, the Jazz’s rotation has cost them dearly.

When the Jazz play any combination of their main six guys — Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic, Mike Conley, Royce O’Neale and Joe Ingles — they are +120 so far this season. What’s even more impressive about that number is that the vast majority of the minutes those combinations play come against the opponent’s best lineups.

When they play literally even a single player from outside that group, they are -105.

There are a lot of theories as to why. There’s not a viable pick-and-roll combination in the group, too many guys in that unit are non ball-movers, the defensive commitment has been inconsistent. All that is true.

But it might be time to start considering some different configurations. When a team with an elite core like Utah’s is plugging along in sixth place because they literally can’t go seven deep without watching the foundation crumble, that’s pretty tragic. That’s why Snyder’s line above about not “changing things too much” is wholly unsatisfying to these ears. When you’re -105 after 26 games any time you try to go past the sixth guy on your depth chart, you officially need to change something. This team should be past talking about giving guys an “opportunity to find a rhythm together.” They found a rhythm. The rhythm was bad.

Utah’s top three minute-getters outside of the starters and Joe Ingles also happen to be the club’s worst three players in Player Impact Plus-Minus. By a wide margin.

It’s not like there are obvious fixes. Dante Exum hasn’t played particularly well since returning from injury, either, and so far has more turnovers (10) than assists (7) in his first 83 minutes back¹. And while Tony Bradley is at least more of a natural P&R finisher than Ed Davis, he is still very raw and often looks overwhelmed against NBA athletes. Utah’s other alternatives are all rookies who are more a part of the SLC Stars’ ecosystem than the Jazz’s.

Help is not likely coming from outside the Jazz’s locker room, either, at least in the short term. Utah fully intends to explore free agent opporunities if any veterans seek buyouts from their current teams. But those options generally don’t materialize until late February, and if Utah is still seen as a borderline contender at that point, they won’t be in the front of the line for any truly impactful guys. And as our Clark Schmutz detailed on Sunday, Utah doesn’t have the asset portfolio to do anything really splashy in the trade market². 

So the answers, at least for now, need to come in the form of individual players playing better, or Snyder trying different things to unlock some level of competence that so far has eluded any lineups featuring anybody below Ingles on the depth chart.

From where the Jazz coach sits, he’d like to see the improvement start on the defensive end.

“I think more than anything, defensively we just need to continue to be solid and that takes care of a lot of stuff,” Snyder added in that same interview. “If you can get stops, it’s easier to play offense. That’s what we have to do generally, and that’s what we need to do in the middle of the game as well.”

Stats that tell the story of the week or highlight a timely topic

+3.7

One thing that will help: getting Conley back. The Jazz guard has missed four straight games, but practiced over the weekend, potentially in preparation to play in Utah’s home game against Orlando and/or the subsequent 3-game trip in the Southeast Division. That’s good news for Utah, who gets a 3.7-point upswing in their Net Rating when Conley plays versus when he doesn’t. They are -1.1 per 100 possessions when Mike sits, +2.6 when he is on the court. That’s about a 10-win jump in quality.

.410, 57

Utah’s about to get some help from the schedule, too. Their next 18 opponents have a combined winning percentage of .410, and they just started a 57-day stretch in which they don’t have a single back-to-back. That could mean more practice time for this still-adjusting group.

+17.7

Ingles is getting back to being Ingles. The Jazz have won three of their last four, and over that stretch, Ingles has a Net Rating of +17.7, best among rotation regulars. The Jazz’s true shooting has been a red-hot .660 over those four games with Ingles on the court, and plummets to .546 over the same period when he rests.  

Breaking down the Xs and Os behind a Jazz score from the week

Stagger DHO applied to player strengths

Staggered screens with a dribble hand-off — or “stagger DHO” — is a pet action that the Jazz run all the time. That means they have a player without the ball run off two successive screens, and on the second of the two, he gets a hand-off from the screener.

But the fact that they like this particular action doesn’t mean it looks the same every time. In order to use this or any action to maximize a specific player’s strengths, they need to leverage it differently depending on who is involved.

For example, Mitchell is at his best when he can get going downhill or exploit switches. So when they can, they like to point the stagger DHO action toward the paint when the young guard is involved. That’s what they did for this play, the signature highlight of Wednesday’s win.

This play starts with a “twist” action where Emmanuel Mudiay flares out behind Jeff Green, essentially creating a split post action with Green at the elbow. But the angle this creates for Mitchell sends him into the lane with momentum, and just one defender to beat. He smokes that defender with a behind-the-back crossover.

By contrast, when the Jazz stuff for Ingles, they’re not trying to get him downhill; they’re trying to set him up in the middle of the floor, with an advantage over his defender and plenty of space and time to read the defense and make a play. That’s why they often run stagger DHOs for Ingles out of the corner. This gets him the ball at the top of the key with a defender on his hip, which is what led to this play, another of the signature moments up in Minny.

They sometimes run this in a scripted way for Ingles, but not always. Other times, it’s a counter to a specific type of ball pressure. Watch this one.

When this play starts, the Jazz are actually trying to run a DHO between Gobert and Bogdanovic. But Bogey’s defender comes up high to “ice” that action so that Bogey can’t get to the handoff.

Okogie is “icing” here, so the Jazz turn Bogey into a stagger screen as a counter.

When that happens, the Jazz have a few options. Bogey can look for the backdoor cut, or Gobert can reverse to a ball handler on the right side. The Jazz employ both of those counters often. But in this case, Bogey simply turns to the corner to set up the same stagger DHO we’ve been talking about. Josh Okogie isn’t really in a position to help because after denying Bogey the first screen, he’s out of position and has to hurry back to Bogey. So that means Ingles gets the ball with a ton of space in front of him, a defender in the rear view mirror, and just one defender left to read.

Okogie and the corner defender could have just switched the action, with Okogie picking up Ingles and denying him the screen like he did to Bogey. But if they try that, Bogey can either slip to the basket through the switch, or he can post up the smaller defender and go to work. In fact, several of Bogey’s post possessions this season have come as the result of an opponent switching this exact action. And if Okogie steps out to show on Ingles without switching, then Bogey fades to the corner for a wide open three.

Keep your eyes out for stagger DHOs. You’ll see them a lot, but as you can tell from these videos, it will look different depending on which guy’s strengths they’re trying to maximize.

After each Jazz win, Twitter helps us decide who was that game’s MVP or most memorable performer

Jazz 127, Timberwolves 116: Joe Ingles. Sometimes game ball goes to the game’s MVP, other times to the most compelling narrative. On nights like this one, it’s harder to parse the pure game MVP discussion, so narrative naturally gets mixed in. Mitchell had an efficient 30 points plus five boards and six assists. Gobert pounded inside for a 20 & 16 double-double, kept Karl-Anthony Towns out of the paint and played dominant rim defense during Utah’s best stretch. Either of them could rightly claim MVP of the night honors. But Ingles was right there with them — season-high 23 points, five assists, five boards — and just looked different. Right from the start, he was unusually aggressive, and that helped set the tone. If he hadn’t bullied his way inside for the Jazz’s first three buckets (all going toward the hoop), the whole game might have gone differently, including the big nights from the two stars. 

Jazz 114, Warriors 106: Bojan Bogdanovic. This one was easier on a relative basis, although again you could make the case for Gobert, whose impact on the defensive end was palpable and who added the most win probability per stats site Inpredictable. But Bogey’s night jumped off the page — and the history books. His franchise record-tying eight threes helped him get to 32 points on the night, and this comes on the heels of a period when the Croatian forward had been struggling some. Mitchell added 28, on just 19 shots.

Tracking the wild Western Conference postseason race and the Jazz’s place in it

Let’s just take a quick look at the other five Western Conference teams who appear to be vying for top six spots, along with the Jazz.

• The Lakers are still rolling, at 24-3 overall including 17 wins in their last 18 games. They’ve now banked several impressive wins, too, including road wins in Denver, Utah and Miami. Their next six are pretty tough: they finish this trip with Indy and the red-hot Bucks, and then they have home dates coming up with the Nuggets, Mavs and Clippers. I had my doubts, but they are looking like the class of the conference right now. 
• Speaking of the Clips, they just finished a 4-2 road trip, and are three losses ahead of the Jazz.  They will host the Jazz right after Christmas, and before then they have to face the Lakers and Rockets.
• Houston is two losses ahead of the Jazz, thanks to some weird missteps, like recent home losses to Sacramento and Detroit. They have a road-heavy stretch coming, but it’s mostly against lottery teams.
• Denver has really struggled away from home, but they play five of their next six in the Mile High City. They start a tough 5-game trip on New Year’s Eve which will put them in Houston, Indy and Dallas.
• The Mavs are about to get tested, six of eight on the road to close the year, including visiting the Bucks, Sixers, Raptors and Lakers.

A quick look at the Jazz’s next seven nights of action

The Jazz currently have their feet up during a rare 3-day rest, and then they get back to work at home before embarking to the east.

Tuesday 12/17, Jazz vs. Magic: Nikola Vucevic didn’t wait long to make his presence felt. “Vooch” returned to the Magic lineup on Sunday after missing 11 straight games, and right away the center had a 20-point, nine-rebound afternoon in just under 30 minutes. His inclusion should help a Magic offense that currently ranks sixth worst in the league. The schedule while Vucevic sat was soft enough that they were able to survive to the tune of 6-6 without him, but they only have one win all season against a team currently projecting to make the playoffs (Philadelphia).

Thursday 12/19, Jazz @ Hawks: The Hawks are 2-15 since upsetting the Denver Nuggets on November 12. They are also 1-8 in their last nine home games, with the lone win coming against the lowly Warriors. Some key ingredients to their rough record: they’re the worst 3-point shooting team in the league, and they have a porous defense that allows the second most rim attempts and the fifth highest points per possession overall. In other words, the Jazz really need to come away with the W here.

Saturday 12/21, Jazz @ Hornets: Charlotte has the league’s sixth best shot profile as measured by location eFG%, yet they have the ninth-worst actual eFG%. Which means this young team coached by James Borrego has the beginnings of a smart offensive framework, but just doesn’t have the talent yet to start building on it. That’s especially true when the team is down veterans, and both Nicolas Batum and Marvin Williams missed Sunday’s game. We’ll see who’s healthy by Saturday afternoon. Rookie Devonte Graham has been having a nice season, leading Charlotte in points (19.9 ppg) and assists (7.6).

Because after all, following a basketball team is supposed to be fun

Our last bit of fun this week must be phrased in the form of a question.

This is how you know you’ve made it @rudygobert27 pic.twitter.com/qASZ0HSYCl

— Kris Smith (@KrizzzyS) December 12, 2019

We also have Andy Larsen to thank for the added hilarious detail that Gobert wasn’t even familiar with Jeopardy. But viewers of the famous answer-and-question game show are now perhaps a bit more familiar with Utah’s long and unique center.

Thanks for reliving another week with us. Now on to seven more days!