Hardy seems very focused on helping Sexton improve his play. (Trent Nelson, The Salt Lake Tribune)
Every Monday during the regular season here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven, with a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.
A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.
After being the feel-good story of the early NBA season, the Utah Jazz have suddenly fallen on some hard times. They’ve lost seven of their last nine, they didn’t win at all during a week of games without their veteran point guard, and their top scorer is now also banged up.
But what’s remarkable is that their top-five offense has held up, even without the ailing Mike Conley Jr. Their offensive rating in four games this week actually brought *up* their season figure. They peaked at the #2 offensive rating after a 10-3 start, but they still hold the #4 spot in that department.
Unfortunately, though, that means that the culprit behind their 2-7 malaise is fairly obvious: the defense has cratered.
All four of this week’s games were among Utah’s seven worst defensive performances of the season, and overall they are dead last in defense over the past nine games. Over that span, they have fallen from a respectable 10th place in DRtg all the way to 23rd.
There are three main issues driving this precipitous slide in defensive efficiency:
1. Rebounding. This has been an issue all season long, as Jazz opponents grab 32% of their own misses this season. But over the last nine, the Jazz are giving up 17.9 second chance points per game, the worst figure in the league.
What’s weird is the Jazz are themselves pretty good on the offensive glass, which seems to indicate that the aptitude is there to, you know, grab basketballs. In fact, Utah has scored more second-chance points than its opponents on eight occasions, and they won six of those games. But that means they are 6-8 when the opponent matches or exceeds them in that metric.
Saturday’s loss spelled out this problem pretty clearly: the Suns got second (and third) chances on seven straight reboundable fourth-quarter misses. And even though the Jazz finally got a couple in the final two minutes, DeAndre Ayton’s board with 2.1 seconds left denied the Jazz’s chance at a go-ahead play.
Losing out on live defensive boards is also hurting the Jazz’s offense: Utah’s actually 7th in the league at scoring per transition play (per Cleaning the Glass), but when you get fewer defensive rebounds than everybody else, you can’t cash in on those higher-efficiency opportunities.
2. Transition D. Their offense has also hurt their defense in one really important way: teams are coming right down Utah’s throat after empty possessions.
For the season, Utah’s opponents have outscored them off turnovers by nearly a point. But over this 9-game span we’re talking about, they’ve been outscored by 5.4 points off turnovers.
But it’s actually not even just the turnovers: a third of their opponents’ live defensive rebounds turn into transition plays, the fourth worst figure in the NBA. During this 2-7 funk, that figure has ticked up slightly (to 34% of live opponent rebounds) and Utah’s opponents are running with the third highest frequency overall.
3. 3-point variance. As our Ken Clayton pointed out in the Sunday stat thread, some of Utah coming back to earth might have been good old regression to the mean.
Through 13 games, 3-point percentages were being kind to the Jazz, on both ends. They were shooting a couple percentage points better than league average, and their opponents were shooting three percentage points lower. That was creating a nightly 15.7-point advantage from outside, and that was enough to cover up a lot of other stuff.
But as most statheads will tell you, 3-point shooting tends to even out over time. Eventually, the Jazz cooled to a perfectly average 35.5% and their opponents warmed up to a perfectly average 36%. The Jazz take a ton of threes, so they’re still outscoring opponents by 7.5 points from deep over the last nine. But, Ken tells us, that is no longer enough to offset the -9.7 deficit from 2-point territory and the free throw line.
Combined, those three trends have made it pretty hard for Utah’s defense to good or even average. Clearly the transition defense is somewhat “fixable” in the sense that the Jazz have some control over how attentive they are to running back. The other two issues might be less addressable, if we’re being honest.
Most teams that are bad at defensive rebounding don’t just suddenly become good at it, especially when physiology is involved; the Jazz are just smaller than a lot of teams when it comes to rebounding. And 3-point shot luck is just kind of what it is: the Jazz can guard to the scouting report more and be more vigilant about not giving up threes to certain players… but ultimately, they were never going to maintain that 32.3% opponent outside shooting figure.
In other words, this could just be some of Utah’s warts starting to show. Especially with Conley set to miss at least another week or so, teams are going to keep picking at these three scabs as they try to pounce on a suddenly flailing defense.
In the words of Jazz players/people
“The road of progress is not a straight line — it goes up and down on the way.”
-Jazz coach Will Hardy, on young guard Collin Sexton
With Conley still on the mend, a lot is being asked of Sexton. The 23-year-old had started 208 games for the below-average Cavs before coming to Utah, but now finds himself trying to steady a team missing its elite table-setter.
A heated sideline exchange between Hardy and the young guard brought a lot more attention to their relationship and to Sexton’s mercurial play. But count this writer among those not overly concerned by the intense conversation. Sexton has struggled to make reads and has found himself out of position on defense more than the Jazz would like. But Hardy taking him to task is actually a sign that he believes he can get more from him.
Perhaps the most insightful Hardy bit about Sexton came indirectly, via broadcaster Thurl Bailey. The analyst paraphrased Hardy as saying, essentially, that Sexton is “the type of player who wants it all right now.” That’s a perfect description of the youngster, who bounds and yells all around the court during his 23.1 nightly minutes. He is bursting at the seams, and clearly wants to be great, both on an individual level and in the way he impacts winning.
Sexton and the four non-Conley starters have actually produced pretty decent outcomes so far: +8.5 in 155 possessions so far, even better than Conley’s +5.7 with the same group.
Other Sexton-for-Conley variants have been a little shakier. The lineup version where Lauri Markkanen slides to the four and Malik Beasley takes Jarred Vanderbilt’s spot is +5.4 with Conley at the helm, but -12.4 in 54 possessions with Sexton, per CTG. There aren’t more direct lineup equivalents with both a Conley version and a Sexton version that have enough sample size to cmopare them good faith. But in all, Conley-led lineups with no Sexton are +2.3, and Sexton lineups with no Conley are -6.8 on the aggregate.
Conley is really good. Even at his age and reduced scoring numbers, it’s impossible to replace his impact and wisdom. That’s an unfair expectation for Sexton, who hasn’t really been in competitive situations yet. He was unleashed as a volume scorer on bad Cavs teams, and then just as Cleveland was getting better, he missed 71 games last season.
Overall, seeing Hardy this invested in refining Sexton is a positive thing. Sure, the coach clearly wants his guard to address some deficiencies. But being that engaged about communicating his expectations — during a game, no less — tells me that tapping into Sexton’s better basketball angels is actually a top priority for the first-year coach.
Key stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week
This week let’s look at the key stat in each of Utah’s four straight losses.
On Monday, the Clippers added 11.6 points to their offensive efficiency through transition plays, one of the worst 4% of transition defense performanced in this season’s NBA. They scored 1.73 points per transition play, including 2.25 off of live steals.
The Jazz also had two of their four worst halfcourt defense performances this week, starting with allowing the Pistons a 110.2 rating against Utah’s set defense. (The other was Phoenix at 112.8, but we’ll cover that game in a second.) Detroit shot 7-for-9 on corner threes outside of garbage time, CTG reports, and 50% from three overall.
The Warriors shot 92.3% at the rim (12/13) on Friday. Literally only one team has shot better on at least as many rim attempts all season: the Bulls, who shot 13 for 13 against the Bucks. (The Warriors also had a 9-for-9 night at the rim against Denver.) GSW’s 35 transition points were also tied for fourth most in an NBA game this season.
The Jazz’s effective field goal percentage in Phoenix was 9.9% better than their hosts, the single biggest eFG% advantage by a losing team this season. (Assist to the excellent Adam Bushman for sharing this one.) So how do you lose a game where you shoot nearly 10 percentage points better than your opponent AND even take decent care of the basketball, with a better-than-average 12.9% TO rate? The Jazz let the Suns rebound 34% of their reboundable misses, and failed to force turnovers. Phoenix turned the ball over on just 6.4% of their trips (fifth lowest this season) and as such shot 18 more times than the Jazz, counting freebies.
But…
The Jazz will not leave the time zone for 21 straight days. They’ll play eight of their next nine at home, and the only game outside of SLC is a quick trip over to Denver.
Projecting the Jazz’s place in the bigger picture
So how do all these losses change the panorama for the Jazz? Not much, honestly.
Before the season, I wrote that I wouldn’t be paying that much attention to wins and losses this season, instead focusing on larger future-focused themes like who might be part of future contending versions of the Jazz and how guys are developing.
What I do wonder is whether being .500ish as they approach the opening of NBA trade season would impact their mindset at all when it comes to making moves, whether to improve the roster or acquire future assets. December 15 is considered the unofficial trade market launch because it’s the date when most NBA players are trade-eligible. Between now and then, the Jazz face mostly .500-and-up opponents, the lone exception being Monday night against Chicago. They’ve already slipped from first in the West to eighth in a little over a week; if they slip further, could the expanded trade market present some options for the Jazz to be buyers or sellers?
The franchise’s decision-makers aren’t likely to let the record at any particular point in time dictate their long-term approach to team-building. In fact, the indication I get from in-the-know folks is that the Jazz never really took those options off the table, even though they have not been as eager about change for change’s sake as certain pockets of the fan base have been. They view their strong start as a positive development that gives them more options as opposed to fewer. They still own more unencumbered picks than anybody, and they have good players at very matchable salaries. They can make deals work in a lot of different ways.
That said, there are clearly players they would be more or less reluctant to trade. Markkanen and Sexton were acquired with the intent to give them a chance to grow, and the former’s early-season play has made it more likely that the Jazz treat him like a piece to build on. The rookie scale contracts of Walker Kessler and Ochai Agbaji give Utah several years of team control, making them somewhat less likely to be dealt. And as you’ve seen reported elsewhere, it would take a lot for ownership to sign off on a deal where Clarkson is outgoing.
The five above have potentially the best odds of being major contributors to a future contending version of the Jazz, but that doesn’t mean the other 10 main roster players are in the bargain bin. The Jazz have thresholds in mind for each of their guys, and in some cases those thresholds are set quite high. Whether or not they move someone is less about their record at any point in time and more a function of whether there are offers that will improve the competitive situation now and (more importantly) into the future.
The guess here: the Jazz have made it clear with their transactions and on the court that they’re not “tanking,” but they’re also smart enough that they won’t spend assets in a rush to get to 45ish wins. I wouldn’t expect them to make moves just to be marginally better this season unless there is a significant long-term benefit. But, back to the broader point, the further the Jazz get from their 10-3 peak, the calculus might shift to being slightly more future-focused in terms of defining the threshold for the club’s players on the trade market.
Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz outing
The Jazz obviously wanted the Game Ball department to take the holiday week off. So considerate of them, as their 0-4 week means no fake Wilsons to hand out this week. But we will still recognize top performers from each loss.
Strong in Defeat:
Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action
The Jazz have another 4-in-6-nights stretch coming up against mostly competent teams, but on the other hand they don’t leave Salt Lake City for nearly two full weeks, and even then it’s just to Denver and back before another extended stay at home.
Monday 11/28, Jazz vs. Bulls: Enigmatic Chicago has lost four of their last six, but the two wins were against Boston and at Milwaukee. DeMar DeRozan has again been pretty brilliant, but they are oddly 2-6 in the games where he has scored 30 or more. Meanwhile, Zach LaVine has had a slow start, missing some games and averaging 21 points, a 5-year low. THT and Alex Caruso, teammates with the 2020 champion Lakers, will come face-to-face, as will former Heat teammates Olynyk, Derrick Jones Jr. and Goran Dragic. (DeRozan’s former Spur teammate Rudy Gay remains out.)
Wednesday 11/30, Jazz vs. Clippers: This is already the third time the Jazz will have seen LAC, and yet there’s a chance they will have seen a very different team each time. Kawhi Leonard and Luke Kennard both missed an early November loss to Utah, and Robert Covington played only sparingly. Leonard was back by last week’s rematch, but Paul George and Covington joined Kennard on the sidelines. Both stars were inactive on Sunday, so who knows what the Jazz will face this week. In their absence, Ivica Zubac turned in a 31-point, 29-rebound performance to help the Clips put away Indiana.
Friday 12/2, Jazz vs. Pacers: The Pacers have been the Eastern Conference’s version of the Jazz: a team everybody assumed would find its way to the cellar and instead is sitting at 11-8 and currently hanging onto #4 in the Eastern Conference. Rookie Bennedict Mathurin looks *real* and might be the first player to win Rookie of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year in the same season. He’s averaging 19.4 points. Tyrese Haliburton leads the way with 19.9 and a league-leading 11.1 assists, making those two one of the most dynamic young backcourts in the NBA. I can’t think of a better guard duo under 23.
Saturday 12/3, Jazz vs. Blazers: A road-heavy stretch and injury issues for star guard Damian Lillard have slowed Portland some: after starting 9-3, they’ve lost six of eight. Lillard only played in half of those eight games, and was clearly struggling before that, at 20% from three in the previous four. In his absence, Jerami Grant has been carrying Portland with 28.0 points per game, and Anfernee Simons has added 25.5. Outside of those two, the other Blazers are shooting 27% from outside during this stretch without Dame.
Random stuff from the Jazz community
Clarkson and Vanderbilt both gave us heartwarming moments with their Thanksgiving week generosity. But did any moment this week elicit wider smiles from Jazz fans than this one?
brothhhhhaaaaaa!!!! @44Bojan always good to see u man!!! https://t.co/6Q2JKF2BIM
— Jordan Clarkson (@JordanClarksons) November 24, 2022
More than a quarter of the way through the season now! We’ll be back with seven more Jazzy things next Monday (and we’ll have more for you in the meantime on this site in general.)
Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us...Read More
Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us...Read More
Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us...Read More
Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us...Read More
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