Salt City Seven: The Fun Continues for the Pass-Happy, Defensive Jazz

October 31st, 2022 | by Dan Clayton

The 5-2 Jazz are sharing the ball and guarding well in the halfcourt. (Trent Nelson, The Salt Lake Tribune)

The Salt City Seven is back! Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with seven recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

A 2-2 week did nothing to quell the optimism around one of the NBA’s most surprising teams. The Utah Jazz stand at 5-2 after splitting their games since our last SC7 column, 

We already took a look in last week’s column at some of the reasons the hot start might not hold up. So we won’t do that again this week, except to say that you could flip three shot outcomes (or foul calls or whatever) and the Jazz would be 2-5. But it’s also not like they’re cheating the basketball gods: their expected wins based on net rating comes to 4.1, so they might have gotten a little fortunate, but mostly they’re just playing well.

So rather than poke holes in it, let’s instead try to understand precisely how the Jazz are defying expectations through seven games. And the way they’re doing it is by sharing the basketball at an incredibly high level. 

With the exception of Mike Conley Jr. and Kelly Olynyk, really none of the Jazz’s rotation guys came into this season with a reputation for being a great passer at their respective position. And yet the Jazz have started the season as a collective passing machine. Five of their top six minute-getters are currently posting a career-best season in assists per game.

As a team, just over two thirds of the Jazz’s buckets have been assisted so far, the fourth highest figure in the league. They’ve already had five games — all wins, by the way — where at least 64.3% of their made shots were the result of an assist. Last year’s Jazz had just 10 such games all season.

Of the main rotation guys, only Collin Sexton and Talen Horton-Tucker are generating more than half of their made field goals on their own. Even accomplished bucket-getters like Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson are mostly letting their scoring be a a product of the system, with 66% and 58% of their makes coming after a pass, respectively. All but three of Olynyk’s 34 Jazz buckets (91.2%) have been assisted.

When games get close, most teams lean more heavily on iso wizardry from a star player. For the Jazz, their star at this point *is* their unpredictability and their collective ability to involve everybody. Their best weapon in clutch situations is that nobody in the gym knows exactly who’s going to wind up taking the shot. Against Memphis, for example, their final eight shots were all assisted: shots like Markkanen’s thunderous dunk, Olynyk’s go-ahead three and Malik Beasley’s dagger. In their other win this week, against Houston, they literally didn’t score in the fourth unless it was off of assisted buckets or free throws.

In the clutch, their assist percentage swells to 76.9%. They are 4-1 so far in games meeting clutch criteria.

This is once again a pass-focused team. And at least so far, that commitment to sharing the basketball has made them harder to beat.

In the words of Jazz players/people

“I have not begged (Clarkson) to be a playmaker. I think I’ve just tried to explain to him where I think he fits in this group and try to empower him in that way. I’ve told him that if the game tells him to shoot 10 times in a row, then he should shoot 10 times in a row. But I just think he has more to offer us on that end.”

-Will Hardy

Nobody represents Utah’s commitment to the pass better than Clarkson, whose latest reinvention as a player has been as a distributor.

When Clarkson first arrived in Utah, he had been branded (justifiably) as a low-efficiency gunner, but he quickly earned praise by rethinking his shot mix and becoming one of the league’s most reliable bench anchors. But his role was still to spark second unit offenses primarily with self-creation, using a combination of his flammable outside shot and clever drives. So watching him suddenly become one of the Jazz’s best table-setters has been really intriguing.

Clarkson is literally doubling his career assist numbers: from 2.5 assists over his first eight seasons to 5.0 in these first two weeks of year nine (with a similar minutes load). He’s assisting on a quarter of his teammates’ made baskets while on the court this year, up from 15.9% previously.

It’s not even just about the quantifiable increase either; it’s the way he’s being trusted as the down-the-stretch facilitator and his understanding of opponent schemes. Like here:

“He’s been amazing throughout training camp and then this early part of the season,” Hardy said. “So credit to him.”

Key stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week

6

The Jazz have played six games that were theoretically up for grabs down the stretch, and they have used a different closing lineup in each. Some of that has been driven by foul trouble and now this wave of illness (some COVID and some unspecified), but that’s still remarkable. Markkanen has closed every game thus far (except for the one true blowout), and Conley has closed all except the Memphis game, since he was resting. JC has been a closer five times and Beasley four. Olynyk has closed three games, but might have finished two others if he didn’t foul out. Sexton and Jarred Vanderbilt have each closed twice.

90.6

The Jazz are also the sixth stingiest set defense in the league, allowing just 90.6 per 100 plays in the halfcourt. That’s despite allowing the most points per 100 reboundable opponent misses (29.1) than any other team in the league. If they could take better care of the boards, they’d be in really elite shape right now on defense. (Small sample size alert, though.)

30

Nobody has played more “clutch” minutes — scoring margin inside five in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or OT — than the Jazz’s 30. They’ve won those minutes 73-59 so far, and are a league-best (tied with Cleveland) 4-1 in those games. Only the two Denver games didn’t reach clutch classification. 

111

Conley’s assists have led to 111 Jazz points, the 9th highest figure in the league. If that’s not impressive enough, of the 15 players who have generate at least 90 points with assists, only Toronto’s Fred VanVleet has fewer turnovers than Mountain Mike’s 10.

5-0

From the jokey trivia file: the Jazz are undefeated when Markkanen makes a free throw. Great news since he’s an 85% career shooter on freebies. They’re also undefeated when he has 2+ assists. OK, but seriously: Markkanen is also one of five Jazzmen ever (and the first since Carlos Boozer) to post 21-and-9 averages in his first seven Jazz games. If he keeps doing what he’s doing as a multi-faceted scorer, we’ll soon have to have some really deep conversations about this dude.

Projecting the Jazz’s place in the bigger picture

Folks who were with us last week know that we’re using this space as a bit of a forward-focused grab bag until we have a clearer idea whether the 2022-23 Jazz will eventually wind up jockeying for playoff seeding or, you know, the other thing.

So let’s talk about the future roster decision we learned about in the wee hours of Sunday morning: Utah will not pick up the 2023-24 team options for Udoka Azubuike or Leandro Bolmaro. 

Azubuike’s option would have cost the Jazz $3.9 million, or roughly the cost of two one-year contracts at the veteran minimum. While Dok had some solid outings last season, he hasn’t shown enough in his mere 260 minutes of NBA action to be worth two vet signings. Both he and Bolmaro were final candidates for training camp cuts, but I thought the Argentine guard had at least a chance of getting another look, since his option would have only cost the Jazz $2.5 million.

Ultimately, the Jazz appear to have decided that their future flexibility is worth more than whatever the X% chance is that those end-of-bench pieces really pop over the next 75 games. That’s probably a fair bet given what they have/haven’t produced as professional thus far, but it’s still a bit of a letdown to see a recent Jazz 1st AND a piece from the Rudy Gobert package both nearing dead ends as assets.

Both guys can continue to audition to be considered a part of the future. The Jazz won’t have matching rights on either guy next summer, but they will have a version of Bird rights for both if either guy somehow announced himself as a future building block in the next 6 months. They’ll have full Bird rights on Dok (meaning they could technically offer him anything up to the max salary) and Early Bird rights on Bolmaro (up to around $12 million, or they could go beyond that with cap space). But let’s be frank here: this decision signals that the Jazz think the likelihood of needing to keep either guy past next spring is low. Remember that the Jazz have a dozen guys with guaranteed money or some sort of option for next season, plus Nickeil Alexander-Walker potentially entering restricted free agency and three first-round draft selections. Honestly, it would be a little hard to even find a 2023-24 roster spot for Dok/Bolmaro, at least based on today’s depth chart.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz outing

Let’s hand out two imaginary Wilsons for the week’s pair of wins, and recognize the best in two losing efforts.

Jazz 109, Rockets 101: Jordan Clarkson. Markkanen’s bounce-back game and 24-and-9 line made him the obvious choice (and the fan pick), but Clarkson really took over in nearly every way during the stretch that actually decided the game. The Rockets pulled to within two midway through the second quarter, and then Clarkson promptly grabbed a steal and assisted the next three Jazz baskets. He then made two threes of his own, canned a pair of free throws, and grabbed four rebounds to close out the half. After halftime, he made three straight threes, nabbed another steal, blocked a transition layup and closed a Jazz run with his own drive. All told, the Jazz were 43-26 during that 12-minute span, and JC’s fingerprints were all over it: 19 points, 4 boards, 3 assists, 2 steals and a block in that span. The sleeper pick was Talen Horton-Tucker, who contributed 14 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists, and assumed ball handling duties when Sexton went out.

Jazz 124, Grizzlies 123: Kelly Olynyk. As many heroes as there were in this one, this was a fairly easy choice for me. KO scored 23 points on just 10 shots, and had a do-it-all stat line with 23-3-4-2-3. He closed with a 10-point quarter, but just as importantly, he had three straight defensive plays (a block at the rim, a drawn charge and a broken-up lob) at an absolutely crucial juncture of the fourth period, when the Jazz were down six and it very easily could have been eight, 10 or 12 without Olynyk’s defense. Clarkson would be my next choice, with 21 points and lots of good playmaking down the stretch. Markkanen struggled early but wound up with 23-9-5, and Sexton energized the team and scored 19. 

Strong in Defeat:

  • Jazz 108, Rockets 114: Simone Fontecchio. A fairly easy choice since the Italian was the story of the game after providing energy and shooting during a surprise insertion. While six other Jazzmen joined Fontecchio in double figures, only Olynyk score more efficiently than Fonteccio’s 13 points on 5-of-9 shooting.
  • Jazz 101, Nuggets 117: Mike Conley. Almost by default. Clarkson didn’t have it. Markkanen was less efficient. Sexton scored OK, but had a game-worst minus-32. Ochai Agbaji showed some promise in his first extended run, but Conley was the real bright spot here: 14 points on seven shots, five assists without a turnover. Had Mike played his usual ~32 minutes, he was on pace for something like 19 and 7, but the Jazz smartly shut him down given Denver’s big lead.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action

The Jazz enter another busy week, but for the first time all season they get to play consecutive games in the same city — both tonight in their second straight home game, and again this weekend when they face both L.A. teams.

Monday 10/31, Jazz vs. Grizzlies: The sequel. Former Memphian Conley should be back from his 1-game rest for this one, but we’ll have to see if the Jazz get any of Rudy Gay, Fontecchio or Walker Kessler back. Perhaps more important is the question of whether All-NBA guard Ja Morant, out on Saturday with an unspecified illness, is back for Memphis. Last season, the Grizz won at a 63% clip with Morant in the lineup and were an astounding 20-5 when he sat (.800). This year, however, they’re minus-6.2 per 100 possessions in all lineups without the electric Morant on the court. He’s scoring a ridiculous 32.6 per game.

Wednesday 11/2, Jazz @ Mavericks: Dallas had an unconvincing weekend: they collapsed at home against OKC after leading by 16 late, and then on Sunday they flirted with disaster when they trailed visiting Orlando by double digits before eventually getting out of there with a win. Their season has been pretty uneven so far: they’re 3-3 despite a top-4 Net Rating, likely the result of one extremely lopsided victory skewing their stats. Luka Doncic has been otherworldly with averages of 37-10-9 (rounded), and Christian Wood and Spencer Dinwiddie have both started the year in a great rhythm. But their interior defense remains a real issue: third worst rim defense so far by opponent FG% in the restricted area, and second worst in “floater range” of 3-10 feet, per Cleaning the Glass.

Friday 11/4, Jazz @ Lakers: The Lakers won’t be winless when they host the Jazz on Friday. They finally scored a win on Sunday when Anthony Davis and the second unit absolutely laid it on Denver with a 17-0 run in about three and a half minutes — while LeBron James sat! The Lakers’ defense remains awesome — 2nd in the league as of this writing — but they are dead last in overall offense, effective field goal percentage, and 3-point shooting where they’ve converted just 26.6% of their attempts. Clarkson and THT get to face their former team.

Sunday 11/6, Jazz @ Clippers: It’s hard to know what to make of the Clippers’ 2-4 start, because Kawhi Leonard has only played in two of those games (a win and a loss), and he came off the bench in both as he works his way back from a year-plus absence. Their wins over Sacto and the Lakers hardly look impressive at this point, and since then they have lost four straight — including back-to-back losses in OKC and a blown double-digit lead at home against the Pels. That said, none of their statistical indicators mean anything yet given the caliber of guys who have been in and out of their lineup. They remain a mystery for now.

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Happy Halloween, everybody. Stay safe out there.

More next week in the next SC7 — and more throughout the week here at Salt City Hoops!

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