Salt City Seven: Vet Trade Watch, Jazz Win 5 of 7, Holiday Fun

December 26th, 2023 | by Dan Clayton

Kelly Olynyk has been the subject of recent rumors. (Trent Nelson, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick look at the big, burning question of the moment in Jazzland

For the second straight week, we’re going to open the Seven talking a little bit about the trade front. Because right now, as unpleasant as it is, the question that accompanies any role player’s positive outburst is whether such an explosion changes some of the brass’ thinking about who’s in the core… or perhaps juices someone’s trade value just enough to where some interesting doors creep open.

Just in the last two weeks, the Jazz have had some interesting performances from their non-star veterans:

  • Collin Sexton’s top four scoring games as a Jazzman have all come since 12/13.
  • Simone Fontecchio dropped a season-high 24 and completed a stretch of 45% outside shooting over the last eight games.
  • A previously slumping Jordan Clarkson came back from a 2-week rest to drop 30 in an impressive road comeback.
  • Talen Horton-Tucker had games of 27 and 23 in wins, plus 19 points, 11 assists and +5 in a loss in Cleveland.
  • Kris Dunn came back to the starting lineup and doled out double-digit assists in consecutive games.
  • Kelly Olynyk had a 27-6-4 outburst and averaged 7.1 assists per game as a center.

I’m generally of the opinion that a good game (or week, or whatever) doesn’t swing trade value all that much. Scouting in the NBA is really good, and teams are rarely swayed in their analysis by that small a sample size.

That said, there are probably situations where a team has been moderately interested in a guy but just wants to see signs of life, or see a particular skill set featured before they ultimately decide to pursue him fully. So multiple Jazz veterans choosing this stretch of the calendar to showcase some of their abilities could prove interesting as we head into the final six weeks before the trade deadline.

The Olynyk example is particularly interesting given that the big man has recently been connected in the rumor mill to the franchise that moved up to draft him in 2013.

But look: the Celtics can “monitor” Olynyk all they want, to use Marc Stein’s term. The reality is that the new second apron rules make an Olynyk-to-Boston deal extremely unlikely. In order to bring in Olynyk, the Celtics would need to to send out at least $11.086M in salary. Doing that without sending one of their top six would literally require a 5-for-1 trade, and Utah isn’t going to waive a third of their roster to make a trade happen just so they can employ Svi Mykhailiuk for half a season.

The Celtics surely aren’t moving one of their top five salaries in an Olynyk-centered deal, either. So that basically leaves Al Horford, who’s 37 and doesn’t really fit the Jazz’s project. Maybe a third team scenario exists where Horford gets routed to a team with win-now motivations? Maybe the struggling Hawks would fancy a reunion with their former All-Star and the Jazz could simply get a couple of projects like Saddiq Bey (from Atlanta) and Dalano Banton (from the Celtics) in a 3-team deal with some seconds sprinkled in? Seems like the only type of scenario that gets Olynyk to Boston and gets the Jazz something applicable to their rebuild. (To be clear, that’s not a rumor or anything else other than an example of a 3-team scenario.)

Frankly, if I’m running the Celtics and my title window is “right damn now,” I’m not sure I’m trading Horford, who’s been a pretty big part of their identity. But as illustrated above, they have limited ways to add an 8-figure difference maker to fortify their bench for a title run, and a Horford-Olynyk swap would make them six years younger and take $9.5M off of next year’s books.

But zooming back out past the specific KO rumor, the point here is that every solid night by a Jazz player not on a rookie contract and not named Lauri Markkanen is going to foment chatter about whether that’s the performance that shifts the value equation in the mind of some basketball decision maker out there.

 

Telling or interesting words from Jazz people

“The food will taste a little bit better.”

-Jazz coach Will Hardy, on securing a comeback win right before a brief Christmas repose

The Jazz probably had no business winning in Toronto. Down 17 after halftime in a road game right before a holiday, it would have been pretty darn easy to collectively say, Oh well, we don’t have it tonight, let’s get home to our families and try again after Christmas.

Instead, they had one of their most impressive wins of the year, fueled by an insane 41-21 fourth quarter.

But those holiday meals won’t just taste better because of that single stanza — the Jazz have quietly strung together their best stretch of the season. They’ve won five of their last seven despite players shuffling in and out of the rotation, and there are some impressive wins in there.

“It could be defining for us, we’ll see,” Hardy said. “I don’t know, but I know the team is in really good spirits right now. They’re feeling good and confident about how they’ve played for the last two weeks.” 

 

Stats that tell the story of the week

30-10

Utah’s advantage in fast break points on Monday against Brooklyn was their biggest of the season. They scored a season best 30 in transition, and their visitors only managed 10. Ochai Agbaji had 11 of the Jazz’s 30 quick ones.

14

The Jazz had fought back from being down as many as nine in Cleveland, but then let the game be decided by a 14-0 Cavs run straddling the third and fourth quarters. USU alumnus Sam Merrill had more threes in that game (8) than any undrafted player in a game this season.

1.3

Somehow, the games in Cleveland and Detroit were just the 2nd and 3rd times this season when all five starters have finished the game above 1.0 points per shot. Their combined PPS in those two games was 1.3. (The only other game where that happened was in the November 17 home loss to Phoenix.

171

The Jazz shot 8-for-11 in the paint in the fourth quarter in Toronto, and 6-of-11 from three, which is a huge part of how they achieved a 171 ORtg for the quarter.

 

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win

A 3-1 week means the Game Ball department had an unusual amount of work to do during this holiday week.

Jazz 125, Nets 108: Walker Kessler. Sexton and THT had identical lines of 27-3-6, and I was really close to giving this to THT, who had 14 of his points in the final 16:30 while the Jazz were turning a 5-point deficit into a runaway win. But this win honestly had more to do with defense, and Kessler was superb. He held the Nets to 1-for-10 shooting at the rim, a number so bad it looks like a typo. In all, Brooklyn shooters managed just 27% when Kessler was the primary defender. Sexton (2/7) and Agbaji (1/6) were really good in that category too, but Kessler was on another level defensively: 5 blocks to go with 14-and-14. Markkanen (20 and 10) was great, too.

Jazz 119, Pistons 111: Kelly Olynyk. This just had to be the former Piston, who poured in a season-high 27 (on 16 shots) when the Jazz clearly needed scoring help with Markkanen out. Somehow he also still managed to dish out six helpers, as well as grab four steals. Agbaji (18 points) and Dunn (13 points, 10 assists) were also in the running, plus those two shared the primary duties of checking Cade Cunningham. Sexton had a very complete line (19-4-8, with 4 steals) but wasn’t terribly efficient. Fontecchio added 16.

Jazz 126, Raptors 119: Jordan Clarkson. It was more than just stats here, although Clarkson matched Markkanen’s team-high 30 points. He had 16 of the Jazz’s 41 in the fourth, plus assisted another eight. But the reason this was an easy call is that Clarkson, after a slow start, was the answer to solve Toronto’s swarming, long defense. The Jazz spent the night trying to pass around a collection of 6’8″ dudes with positive wingspans, and then Clarkson finally realized that instead he could just crack the defense wide open by getting to the paint and triggering helps that opened up the game for Utah. Markkanen’s 30-9-5 line was special, and I’m tempted to reward the Finn any time he collects more than a couple of assists, but Clarkson clearly turned this game around. Kessler also had a great fourth quarter from a defensive perspective, but not quite to the degree of eclipsing Clarkson’s “Shhhh!” night in Scotiabank Arena.

Strong in defeat:

  • Jazz 116, Cavs 124: Lauri Markkanen. The Finnisher had 26 and 10 and was very cleary the best player on the floor… even though Merrill was the hottest. The Lauri-plus-bench minutes were rough defensively and through his overall net rating way out of whack, but the Jazz are still so much better offensively whenever #23 is on the court.

 

Breaking down the Xs and Os behind a Jazz score.

Let’s check out a beautiful play from a key moment of the Jazz’s most impressive win of the week.

This was not after a timeout or other stoppage, but this certainly looks like a called play, or at the very least a designed set-up meant to generate options.

Markkanen looks like he’s going to run off a double pindown to come to the ball, but instead cuts in between the two screeners. Kessler even throws in a little fake roll that occupies OG Anunoby for a split second, long enough that Markkanen can get behind him on the play.

It’s Dunn who makes me think this was drawn up for a Lauri three all along: the way he buys time by dribbling toward the apparent 3-man action makes it look like he’s really selling the “fluff” here, and then when he ultimately does make the pass to Lauri on the left wing, he does so without really looking that way first.

Also, watch Markkanen himself. As soon as he sees that OG is watching the Dunn-Clarkson-Kessler trio, he signals pretty hard for the Agbaji flare screen.

This put them up seven with 4:36 to play. Per inpredictable.com, Utah’s win probably improved from 78.9% to 88.1% when this shot went in.

 

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of action

Just three games this week after a crazy pre-Christmas sprint that saw them play eight times in 13 nights.

  • Tuesday, 12/26: Jazz @ Spurs. Victor Wembanyama is as advertised, but the Spurs are still the worst team in the conference. They throw the ball all over the gym (3rd worst TOV%), never draw fouls (30th) and can’t defend (2nd worst defensive eFG%).
  • Thursday, 12/28: Jazz @ Pelicans. The Pels finally have their starting group together and are playing much better: 8-4 since those weird back-to-back losses in Utah. CJ McCollum is shooting 45% from deep since his return, and he and super sub Trey Murphy III together have been unstoppable (+20.2 per 100).
  • Saturday, 12/30: Jazz vs. Heat. Miami’s Christmas win over the (Embiid-less) Sixers moves them to 6-2 since December 11. Jimmy Butler has missed three straight, but Tyler Herro has been red hot since returning (26.3 ppg last four), and rookie Jaime Jaquez amassed 31 on Christmas.

 

Random stuff from the Jazz community

    I’m an unrepentant sucker for stuff like this. It’s also kind of funny how on brand some of these interactions were. First of all, Kessler is hilarious and likable all the time. Sexton got a giggle from me by exuberantly congratulating himself on something looked cool but kind ultimately kind of missed the assignment. And does THT know what a snowflake is? Omer Yurtseven being exceedingly competent (in this case at making a paper snowflake) feels appropriate.

    That the premise of this was “we’re going to be away on Christmas” is also a reminder that the Jazz changed their travel plans and flew hundreds of miles out of their way to let the guys (and coaches, and team staff) spend Christmas with their families.

    The flight from Toronto to San Antonio is 1,440 miles. Instead, the Jazz chose to fly 1,660 miles back home just to turn around 36 hours later and fly another 1,100 to get to Texas in time to face the Spurs. Moreover, flying straight to San Antonio after Saturday’s game would have been the “normal” thing. People would have groaned in a “that’s the business we’re in” sort of way, but nobody would have blamed the Jazz for following standard practice here. Instead, they got guys back in front of their own Christmas trees. Even if the result is a 40-point blowout loss to the 4-win Spurs, that type of gesture is probably worth it in the long run in terms of the bank account of goodwill.

    Hope you also had a very Merry Christmas! Enjoy the last three Jazz games of 2023.

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