Salt City Seven (Plus): Impact Injuries, Mike the Magnifier & More From the Last Eight Days

January 25th, 2022 | by Dan Clayton

Exploring Mike Conley’s impact on the (currently very banged up) Jazz. (Rick Egan, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Every week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. This column usually runs on Mondays, but this week’s entry was delayed by a day — so you get EIGHT days worth of quotes, stats, plays and performances in this installment. Next week, we’ll resume our regular schedule.

In their own words

Once again, we start this week with words, because the biggest topic in Jazz Nation for this particular 7-day period is something we heard a lot about in recent days: health.

“I think it’s just a little strain. I’ve never really had that before, so it’s hard for me to tell how many games or how long it will take to heal, but I don’t think it’s anything bad… 

“We’re going to be cautious obviously, but it should be fine.”

-Rudy Gobert, after existing Sunday’s loss with what the Jazz are calling a calf strain

All throughout the highs and lows of the season’s first half, Jazz fans kept saying, “Just wait until the last week of January. That’s when we’ll see what they’re made of.” This very stretch was supposed to be the one that served as the measuring stick for the title-aspiring Jazz, with games against Western Conference giants like Golden State, Phoenix and Memphis. Instead, they could potentially hobble through the week without some of their best players.

Gobert strained a calf on Sunday night. Bojan Bogdanovic bruised his knee, and later it was revealed he also has a convulsion fracture. Donovan Mitchell stayed back in Salt Lake recovering from a concussion.

Those just happen to be Utah’s three top scorers for the season, responsible for 60 nightly points, plus a whole bunch of their shot creation, more than 23 combined rebounds per game, and — especially in Gobert’s case — the hub of the defense.

If any of those three miss significant time, Utah has some serious voids to fill.

Mitchell’s return is likely the closest of those three. Concussion protocol is usually a day-to-day process, and a full week has elapsed since Russell Westbrook’s elbow glanced the Jazz star’s face. He could return on Wednesday night when the Suns and Jazz travel north to complete the home-and-home set in Salt Lake City, but the Jazz have yet to release a detailed injury report ahead of that game.

The timelines for Gobert and Bogdanovic are less clear, but Gobert’s explanation of the injury didn’t sound particularly encouraging.

“I felt it right away,” the All-Star center said. “I stepped and I felt something slowly like — I had the feeling in my calf. I felt like a weird, not a tear, but a slow tear. So I knew something happened.”

That description — a slow tear? — doesn’t sound great. Gobert said he tried to play through it but could tell he “wasn’t moving right,” so ultimately he and the Jazz decided to let Eric Paschall finish the night at center. Calf injuries can be tricky, so it’s not particularly useful to speculate from here on what kind recovery time could look like or how he and the Jazz will weigh their options. Players have played on injured calves before, but obviously an injury anywhere in the kinetic chain can put a player at risk of hurting something else or worsening the initial injury.

The Jazz are obviously most concerned with having the optimal version of Gobert ready for the postseason, but a significant absence now could impact their record and playoff seeding. They are 1-5 this season when Gobert doesn’t play.

The fact that Bogdanovic finished the game is probably a decent sign that his knee contusion is something manageable.

“I’ll be fine,” the Croatian forward said soon after. “I don’t know what it is, but I’ll be fine.”

But now the avulsion fracture on his left hand complicates things. An avulsion fracture occurs when the a ligament pulls a tiny piece of bone out of place. They can be painful, and they can heal on their own or require surgery. ESPN reports that Bogey will “be able to play in a splint,” which seems to indicate that the Jazz will attempt to have him play through it. The fracture is at least on his non-shooting hand.

Beyond the walking wounded, these absences also have an effect on those who are left to carry the burden. Mike Conley in particularly looked gassed by the end of Jazz-Warriors. Mitchell’s absence puts an increased burden on the 34-year-old guard, who had nine points on 3-for-6 shooting in the opening frame, but didn’t score again after that as he finished 0-for-4. Jordan Clarkson struggled again, and Royce O’Neale and Joe Ingles both still seem reluctant to shoot. As a result, Conley often winds up having to initiate two or three different sets on each possession, and that has to be tiring. Plus, he was tasked with fighting through screens as the primary defender on superstar Steph Curry, whom he helped harass into a 5-for-20 shooting night.

So now the Jazz head into a new week having lost eight of 10 overall… with the status of their three best scorers unknown… with other players tired and/or slumping… and having to face the league’s best team (again) followed by the surprising Memphis Grizzlies and the always-challenging Minnesota Timberwolves.

Instead of this being the stretch that showed us all how close the Jazz are to the cream of the crop, the question now is merely going to be: can what’s left of the team survive while some of its best players get healthy?

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

Nobody is safe from speculation during trade season, and this week saw even 2021 NBA All-Star Conley thrust into trade speculation. So let’s talk about Conley for a moment.

It would be easy to look at Conley’s stats and see a declining player at 34 years of age. His scoring average (14.0 ppg) and usage (20%) are both at 10-year lows, and he’s taking a smaller portion of his shots in the restricted area than at any point in his career. For anybody lazy enough to stop there, that seems to support the narrative of a 30-something starting to slow down.

But look closer.

Conley’s minutes are also lower than they’ve been since his rookie season, and if you check his per-minute stats instead of raw numbers, he’s actually ahead of his career rates for scoring (17.7 per 36), assists (6.5) and rebounds (3.8). He’s also shooting above his career norms from the field, from outside and from the line, and his overall true shooting (.601) would be the second-best mark of his career.

Simply put, Conley is still doing exactly what he has done throughout his peak, and any statistical decline is really just the output of Utah’s staff managing his minutes.

And more to the point, the Jazz never acquired (or re-signed) Conley so that he could fill the stat sheet. The Conley fit was never about that. He’s here because he’s an elite game manager, because he plays net-plus defense, and because he brings out the best in other guys on the court. Literally. Look at this graph that shows how other Jazz rotation players perform next to Conley versus in lineups without the veteran playmaker:

Source: Cleaning the Glass, garbage time & heaves excluded

Every single rotation player is significantly better next to Conley. In many cases, Conley is the difference between the Jazz being pretty decent and the Jazz being unstoppable.

There’s something about Conley that simply seems to magnify the best of those around him. Maybe it’s the fact that he’s patient and steady facilitator, the Jazz’s best “defense solver” by a mile. Maybe it’s that he’s seen every scheme imaginable in his 15 NBA seasons, so he can more quickly recognize and adjust to what opponents try against the Jazz. Maybe it’s that he holds his own on defense, so the Jazz can give him tougher assignments when they need a less capable perimeter defender to cross-match onto a non-threat.

Maybe it’s all of those things, but it’s pretty obvious: every Jazz player plays better basketball with Mike along for the ride.

Even Gobert and Mitchell, these numbers show, both play winning basketball without Conley… but they absolutely crush teams when teamed up with the sage point guard. (And when the three are deployed together, forget about it: lineups built around the trio have a differential in the top 1% of all lineups, with an elite 123.5 offense and a solid 107.5 defense.)

What’s probably more impressive is that each player’s OFF-court number also gets better with Conley playing. 

Source: Cleaning the Glass, garbage time & heaves excluded

That’s actually remarkable: no matter who else is sitting, the Jazz still play not just winning basketball but ELITE basketball with Conley on the court. No Gobert? No problem… as long as you have Conley. No Mitchell? That’s fine… as long as Mike is inside the lines. Double-digit net ratings are the territory of historical juggernauts, and as long as he is on the hardwood, that level is accessible to the Jazz, even when other stars sit.

Conley’s arrival ensconced the Jazz as title contenders. Conversely, his departure would weaken the foundation instantly. Imagine if the only configurations available to the Jazz were the ones on the right of the charts above. No matter who else is on or off the court, the second Mike checks out of a game, the Jazz go from elite net ratings to being, in most cases, pretty regular.

Simply put, Conley is the key to the Jazz realizing their loftiest aspirations. That doesn’t mean he’s literally off limits ahead of the February 10 trade deadline. But the type of return they’d need to get to avoid an instant deterioration of their results without Conley borders on unrealistic. 

All of this is why, when the sun sets on February 10, Mountain Mike will still be a crucial fixture in Utah’s core, and a magnifier of everything that makes the Jazz elite.

Stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week.

20-15

The Jazz are now a fairly pedestrian 20-15 (.571, or a 47-win pace) when missing one or more rotation players, including 8-10 when they’re down one or more starters. The flip side of that is that they’re 22-8 when their preferred starters are all available, and a torrid 10-3 when their main 10 guys are all healthy. But they may need to find a way to improve their performance when one or more key guys are missing.

<52%

The Jazz have two of their five worst eFG% performances in the last eight nights: they shot 45.6% in San Francisco on Sunday night, and 44.0% in Los Angeles last Monday. For the season, they are 5-9 when they don’t reach at least 52% effective field goal performance.

19

Since January 7, when the Jazz’s current 2-8 funk started, no Jazz player has appeared in every game. In fact, the Jazz have played 19 different players in those 10 games. It’s also worth mentioning that over that span, multiple regulars have been struggling with their shot. Four of Utah’s best shooters are converting under 33% of their threes since that date: Mitchell (32.7%), Gay (32.0%), Bogdanovic (24.1%) and Ingles (22.9%).

+10.1

The Jazz have only three players who have appeared in at least five games since the new year and who have a positive Net Rating over that span: Gobert at +7.3, and Conley and Paschall at +10.1. The third-year forward has undoubtedly made a case for more minutes. He’s shooting 47% from three in 2022, and his perimeter defense has been really good.

1-12

The Jazz have not been comeback kids this year: just 1-12 in games they trail after three quarters. The only Western Conference team with a worse record in that scenario is San Antonio (0-25).

Keeping track of the Jazz’s place in the wild, wild West.

Let’s quickly check in with our friend Riley’s TRUE-LO model:

This rough stretch for the banged-up Jazz has made things interesting in the middle of the top eight. Once pretty ensconced at No. 3, the Jazz have been lapped lately by the increasingly convincing Grizzlies, and might start to feel pressure from Dallas. That’s especially true if these injuries linger on.

Ultimately, finishing 3/4/5 probably doesn’t matter greatly: either way, you’re playing a tough-but-beatable first round opponent and then you’re traveling to either Golden State or Phoenix to start the second round. That’s a tough ask, but that’s likely the path at this point; it’s just hard to make up 8-game gaps in the standings against great teams.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

Only one game ball to give out this week, and it was… hotly contested.

Jazz 111, Pistons 101: Rudy Gobert. Twitter folks submitted votes for Gobert, Clarkson, Trent Forrest and Bogdanovic, and each voter was pretty convinced that their candidate was the only logical choice. With respect to Bogey (23 & 6) and Forrest (a nice spark with 8 & 4, but I keep telling folks: game ball isn’t about “nice sparks”), this one came down to Clarkson or Gobert for me. The former had 20 points, helped unstick the offense early, and would represent the major contribution by the bench in this one. But ultimately, 24 points on 11 shots is quite a bit more impressive than 20 points on 17 shots, to say nothing of Gobert’s 14 boards, four blocks, and the 7-for-19 shooting opponents managed when matched up to him. As well as the bench played, the lingering story from this one is that this is what the Jazz ball handlers can unleash when they get the ball to a rolling Gobert, so let’s reward the big fella. Conley (19-4-4) a sneaky underrated candidate as well.

Strong in Defeat:

  • Jazz 95, Lakers 101: Mike Conley. What a weird game. The Jazz had an ineffably bad night from three (26%), and even a couple more falling would have completely changed the way the last couple of minutes unfolded. So we’ll recognize Conley, the one guy who had it going. The vet scored 20 on 5/9 outside shooting, plus he dished four assists. Gobert had a meaty 19-and-16 double-double with 6-for-8 shooting and three blocks, but had a weird off night as a rim defender (7/9), so we’ll give this one to Mountain Mike.
  • Jazz 111, Rockets 116: Rudy Gobert. Again, weird: another loss by a two-possession margin on a night when the Jazz shot 26% from deep. Bogey, at 23% from outside, was sort of emblematic of that condundrum, so I’m looking elsewhere despite his overall 29-point night (on 27 shots). That leaves Gobert: a fantastic 23-9-4-2-2 line, and also a positive overall presence (+2) despite it being the type of opponent that theoretically tests the big dude’s impact.
  • Jazz 92, Warriors 94: Bojan Bogdanovic. Gay’s per-minute production (16 & 5 in just 18 minutes) rivaled Bogdanovic’s, but based on my same “not just a spark” stipulation described above, I think this one has to be Bogey. He was the Jazz’s steadiest creation engine on a night when they were without both their leading scorer and their bench P&R big. He finished with 21, and had he made one more shot at the end he’d have been a shoe-in for game ball. Gobert’s 12 & 18 make him the obvious runner-up; outside of those two, Conley hit a wall late, Ingles and Clarkson continue to slump, and O’Neale didn’t make a shot. Rough going outside of Bogdanovic and Gobert.
  • Jazz 109, Suns 115: Trent Forrest. Clarkson is probably the more literal answer with 22-4-5, but he also sort of shot the Jazz out of it in the mid fourth quarter (before nearly shooting them back into it late). Danuel House Jr.’s impressive 14-7-4-2-2 line (in 43 minues!) was also pretty eye-popping. But we all know what the story of this game was: Forrest just punishing the Suns with strong drives and physical finishes. It was the best Forrest has looked all year. Paschall (14 points on seven shots) was also very good, and the only Jazz player with a positive +/-.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action.

Sunday’s game in the Bay Area kicked off a stretch with five games in eight nights in five different places. And, as noted above, we have very little idea which Jazz players will be available as they go through this torturous week.

Wednesday 1/26, Jazz vs. Suns: Phoenix is very real, the only team in the league with a top five offense (#4) and defense (#2). What’s more, they’re a remarkable 16-3 in games that are within five at any point in the last five minutes of regulation, a stunning .833 clip. DeAndre Ayton, though, hasn’t played in the Suns’ last four games after exiting their win Detroit with an ankle turn. And if you’re looking for a glimmer of hope, Jazz fans, the Suns are another team that doesn’t really have a signature win yet. They’re played just six games against teams with a top-10 efficiency differential (per Cleaning the Glass), and while they’re 5-1 in those games, most had some really funky context. Three of those five wins came against Dallas (two without Luka Doncic), another at Brooklyn (no Kyrie Irving or Joe Harris), and then Monday night’s victory against Utah’s skeleton crew. The loss came at home to Miami, on a night when the Heat had 11 on the inactive list, including All-Stars Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. If the Jazz are able to field something close to their usual team, this could actually be one of the first real tests of the year for BOTH teams.

Friday 1/28, Jazz @ Grizzlies: Memphis is way ahead of schedule, and fairly mature on both ends (ninth-ranked offense and defense). Ja Morant has absolutely taken the superstar leap: he’s now a 25-6-7 monster whose improved off-the-bounce outside shooting (36%) make him close to unguardable. That said, their scoring margin and other macro indicators still place them a tier below the Suns/Warriors/Jazz tier, so if you believe in those types of markers, this is a game where the Jazz should at least have a shot if they’re healthy-ish. But they had better take care of business early, because is also great (14-6) in clutch situations. They’ve got three rotation guards/wings in health protocols, though, plus Dillon Brooks who is out for a while with an ankle issue. 

Sunday 1/30, Jazz @ Wolves: Minny has won seven of its last 10, and the differentiator during that stretch has been Anthony Edwards: 48-44-90 shooting splits during that stretch. Karl-Anthony Towns is having another 40% season from outside, only now the Wolves have enough defense on their roster to be roughly average on both ends. That said, they still lack some shot-making talent outside the main guys: they have one of the biggest gaps between their location eFG% (4th) and their actually eFG% (19th), which essentially means they miss a lot of good shots. They’re 19-12 in games when KAT, Edwards and D’Angelo Russell are all available, and that’s a solid enough core to put them on pace for what could be their second playoff appearance in 18 seasons. (FiveThirtyEight gives them a 76% shot of making it.)

Random stuff from the Jazz community.

Awww.

That wraps another week (and then some) in Jazzland. We’ll get back on our usual schedule next Monday. 

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