Salt City Seven: Kids Rock, Deep Bench, Franchise History & More

Forrest is one of a handful of Jazz youngsters to turn in their best pro performances of late. (Francisco Kjolseth, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

In many ways, it was the perfect week for the banged-up Utah Jazz. The calendar let up on the weary, short-handed club, with just two games in the last seven nights. But more than that, the Jazz got two victories at the hands of also-depleted squads, ending a 2-11 slump just as their main guys are starting to get healthy again. Donovan Mitchell returned for a brilliant performance on Friday night; Rudy Gobert is expected back “early next week.”

Another nice bonus for Utah is that the 2-0 week came with big contributions from the kiddos. Still down 3-5 rotation players in each of this week’s games, the Jazz again called upon the deep bench youngsters, and they finally broke through with a win.

All four of Trent Forrest, Udoka Azubuike, Jared Butler and Elijah Hughes have played some of their best ball of late.

Forrest has been a battering ram lately, breaking the paint at will with strong drives. The two highest assist games of his career came in the past week, and he also set a career high in points (18) against Denver. He’s still reluctant to shoot threes, which has an impact on overall spacing. But he has turned a corner of late, figuring out how to leverage his strengths to help the offense.

Azubuike had 16 points and 13 rebounds total last season, figures he eclipsed in just his last two times out: 18 points and 21 boards this week while starting for the injured Gobert. He has given the Jazz — who still struggle greatly on both ends without a traditional center — another option for a defense-anchoring roll man. Longer runs still make the second-year center look winded, but he has given the Jazz winning minutes.

All three of Butler’s career double-digit games have come in the past month, including Wednesday’s 10-point performance. An off shooting night on Friday kept him to just five points, so instead he dished a career-best six assists. His defensive awareness is still a work in progress, but the kid clearly has tools, including some wicked change-of-speed moves with the ball.

Hughes’ week wasn’t quite as fruitful, with five total points on 2-for-6 shooting. But he had a breakout performance last month, with a 26-point, 8-rebound, 4-assist night in Toronto that reminded everyone of his potential.

It’s been an encouraging month for this quartet of first and second year pros. But does that mean the Jazz are beholden to carve out a path for this quartet to get more minutes?

Not exactly. While the breakout performances may bode well for the young reserves’ long-term progression, title-chasing teams rarely depend exclusively on such youngsters in the playoffs. Much to the contrary, most teams that have recently ascended to the NBA’s final four have actually boasted deep benches with a wealth of veteran knowledge.

The chart below shows the experience level — in career regular season minutes entering those playoffs — of the 10th through 15th men from the last three years’ worth of conference finalists. The average deep reserve on a team that reaches at least the third round is a veteran who has played somewhere around 5,000 NBA minutes. By contrast, the Jazz’s average deep bencher has played just 327 total minutes heading into Monday, and nobody other than Forrest has cracked 200 minutes yet.

(Click to view larger)

Most teams that go deep into the postseason have a couple of guys outside their main rotation that they can go to for something specific in a playoff series — the way the Clippers did against the Jazz last summer. It’s a nice luxury when a coach can turn to a savvy NBA veteran for help to solve a specific problem. The last three champs have each gotten a little boost at some point in the playoffs from a veteran or two, such as Jeff Teague, Javale McGee or Jeremy Lin. Right now, the Jazz just don’t have that same level of experience. 

This assumes that Eric Paschall — next in minutes played after the main rotation guys — with slide into ninth man duties following Joe Ingles’ injury, at least until other personnel changes are made. The Jazz are also expected to lock up Danuel House Jr. soon on a rest-of-season deal. If a single rotation acquisition bumped those two back to the 10th and 11th man spots, then Paschall’s 2,858 and House’s 4,599 career NBA minutes would give Utah a little more veteran presence in the third unit, but their 10-15th man average (1,461) would still be well below the deep reserves on the last 12 semifinalists.

Simply put, if the Jazz want their deep bench to more closely resemble a real contender’s, they may want to consider adding more NBA experience. They might bring in more experience ahead of this Thursday’s trade deadline. If not, there could be veterans available as free agent signings, particularly if some useful players request buyouts.

Let’s be realistic here: teams don’t win titles because of who their 12th man is. If we’re honest, the Jazz will go as far as Gobert, Mitchell and other core pieces take them.

But in certain contexts, depth matters. It’s useful when a coach can turn to an established professional who understands the NBA game. Then the low-minute youngsters can be used in true break-glass-in-case-of-emergency settings. That doesn’t mean they can’t blossom into real playoff performers down the road; guys on the chart above such as Chris Boucher, Donte DiVincenzo and Gary Trent Jr. were in those roles then, but are now fixtures in their team’s rotations.

It’s undeniably nice to see flashes from each of Forrest, Azubuike, Butler and Hughes. Paschall, too, has been playing really well since getting promoted back into the core rotation: 9.9 points per game on 54-49-80 shooting splits since January 5. The confidence those five are building now could really pay off later. But if the Jazz want their deep bench to look like teams who have made deep playoff runs, they should probably look into adding a veteran or two.

In their own words

“I didn’t give a damn if the ball went in or out… I was just happy just to be out there running around.”

-Mitchell, after returning to the court with a 27-point outburt on Friday

The ball most certainly went in, but we get Mitchell’s point.

After missing eight straight games with lingering concussion symptoms after a January 17 collision with Laker guard Russell Westbrook, Mitchell made it back to the court on Friday night. He was superb from the jump. His 8-of-10 shooting, creative distribution and multiple defensive hustle plays helped Utah run the visiting Nets off the court. Utah jumped out to a 10-0 lead and never trailed by less than seven after that.

But this quote here isn’t just about Mitchell’s Friday evening, but rather about the growing feeling that the Jazz are on the path back to health.

Even their head coach, Quin Snyder, was cleared from COVID-19 protocols on Sunday, and Jordan Clarkson (knee soreness) was upgraded to “questionable” for Monday’s game. Rudy Gobert (calf strain) has been ruled out for Monday, but ESPN’s Tim MacMahon reported that he should be back before long.

The Jazz are 22-8 when all five of their regular starters are available, but that has only been the case in four games since Christmas. Maybe this next week we’ll finally see more games featuring a healthy starting group.

Stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week.

14.8

One thing was pretty clear from watching Mitchell’s return to the court: just how much easier it makes life on other guys. Just for kicks, I checked Bojan Bogdanovic’s net rating with and without Mitchell, and it was a 14.8 point per 100 swing: from -5.9 without Mitchell to +8.9 with him. That’s not a knock on Bogey, either. Bogey is an elite secondary scorer, with enough versatility in his game to carry the offense in stretches. It’s more just a compliment to Mitchell and the influence he has on the guys around him.

74.6%

Outside of garbage time, the Jazz’s effective field goal percentage against Brooklyn was 74.6%. Per Cleaning the Glass, that’s in the top one-half percent of all NBA games played this season. It was also the best defense they’ve played in a game without Gobert all season — 103.7 before the blowout minutes. The previous best defensive outing in a non-Gobert game was 110.1 in Denver on January 5.

9

Speaking of Denver, Wednesday’s win against the visiting Nuggets wrapped up a rare 4-0 sweep against the division rivals, but it was also a night of career highs. Just counting the five main counting stats categories, five new career bests were set that night: Azubuike in points, rebounds, blocks, while Forrest logged new highs in points and assists (tied). Mike Conley Jr. also tied his season high in steals and blocks that night, and Rudy Gay set a new season high for rebounds.

Then against Boston on Friday, Azubuike upped the ante by raising his career highs in points and rebounds, while Butler had a new high game for assists and rebounds. That’s nine career highs set or matched in about a 48-hour time period.

Keeping track of the Jazz’s place in the wild, wild West.

There are definite tiers forming in the Western Conference. The Suns and Warriors are running away with the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds, respectively. The Jazz have an 11-game gap in the loss column to catch Phoenix and an 8-game gap in the loss column behind Golden State. With under 30 games to go, that’s just not happening.

So it’s starting to look more and more like this is the group Utah needs to watch:

Memphis might as well be in a mini-tier of its own, but since that’s only a 3-game gap (again, loss column), that’s not insurmountable. The only problem is: Memphis has already clinched the tiebreaker against Utah.

All of this is why No. 4 is looking more and more likely. Inpredictable gives the Jazz a 73% chance of finishing there. Basketball Reference says that’s 74% likely. We’ll keep an eye on the race for No. 3, but it’s starting to look like the main thing for Jazz fans to watch for over the remaining two months isn’t the suspense over where Utah will land, but whether Dallas, Denver or Minnesota winds up in fifth for a potential first-round matchup.

A second-round matchup starting in Phoenix is a tall, tall order for Utah. Phoenix is for real. That’s why climbing to third would still be preferable. But it would require one of those signature spring surges by Snyder’s crew.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

It was a light week this past week, but luckily the Jazz put the Game Ball Department to work both nights they were active.

Jazz 108, Nuggets 104: Trent Forrest. Game ball to me is like 60% “who was this game’s MVP” and 40% “which guy was the story of the game.” On these balanced nights, the first question is harder, but Forrest had a pretty good case after leading the Jazz in scoring (18), assists (8), shooting (6/7) and essentially co-leading in +/- (one of four guys who were +10 or +11). In terms of narrative, it’s pretty obviously Forrest: he spent the whole night burning Denver defenders to get to the lane and then making the right reads. Royce O’Neale was my runner-up, because he was involved in so many momentum-swinging plays, and Conley’s stamp was once again all over this game (17 points, 5 assists, 4 steals). 

Jazz 125, Nets 102: Donovan Mitchell. A really easy one, because again the MVP of the game and the buzz of the game were the same guy. Mitchell’s return was obviously going to be the story of Jazz-Nets, and then he delivered on that with a dominant performance: 27 points, six assists, silky 80% shooting, and a number of nice defensive plays. No need to overthink this one. That said, there were plenty of guys worthy of an honorable mention: Bogey’s 19-11-4 and game-best +36, Azubuike’s first career double-double, a nice renaissance for Hassan Whiteside, and a perfect start from Paschall on the way to 16 points. 

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action.

The Jazz’s 6-game homestand continues this week, with three games at Vivint Arena.

Monday 2/7, Jazz vs. Knicks: This first Jazz-Knicks meeting of the year comes at a time when Gotham’s team is in a bit of disarray. New York has dropped eight of 10 overall, including when they let a 21-point lead melt away in Los Angeles on the first stop of their current 5-game trip. Leading scorer Julius Randle and RJ Barrett pour in almost 37 combined points per outing, but both are well below average for per-shot efficiency. Former Jazz fan favorite Alec Burks is averaging 11.1 for them this season, but his mini-funk has coincided with their recent funk: 32% from the field in this 2-8 stretch.

Wednesday 2/9, Jazz vs. Warriors: The Jazz hung with the Dubs back on New Year’s Day, thanks to balanced scoring among the usual suspects. The game was tied going into the final two minutes. so if Utah gotten a little more out of Ingles or Gay that night (a combined 3/15, 0/8 from three), it’s easy to imagine how this could have gone differently. Instead, Steph Curry made nine points in a 12-5 closing surge. The Warriors were without Draymond Green, and they will be again on Wednesday. But Klay Thompson has made his return to the court after missing two straight seasons. They’re 7-4 in games with Thompson this season, but they’ve won his last five (and eight overall). This could be a big one for Utah.

Friday 2/11, Jazz vs. Magic: The first game post trade deadline, so we’ll see if either of these two teams looks different by then. Utah’s November 7 loss in Orlando was one of the biggest disappointments of the early part of the season. That said, these Jazz won’t have very many 19% outside shooting nights — that remains a season low — so the likelihood of exacting some vengeance in this one is decent. After hitting their nadir at 8-39, Orlando was flirting with competence there for a minute with four wins in six games, but then got reality checks in the form of 20 and 33-point home losses to Memphis and Boston. They’re the second worst team in the league by efficiency differential, and no team gives up more points per play after live rebounds.

Random stuff from the Jazz community.

When we say “these are the good times,” this is the type of thing we are referring to.

Mitchell and Gobert just achieved something only four other Jazz players in history have done: they both just earned their third All-Star selections as members of the Jazz.

Mitchell and Gobert have now achieved something only four previous Jazzmen ever did.

Frankly, this is franchise Mt. Rushmore-level stuff here. The Jazz have had some very talented stars come through Salt Lake City since the legends left in 2003, but Mitchell and Gobert just reached heights that none of Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Andrei Kirilenko, Mehmet Okur or Gordon Hayward attained. This is a Jazz era that will rewrite the franchise history book in many ways, and hopefully these three selections are just the start for both players.

Congratulations to Spida and Stifle, two of the NBA’s best!

Just five more before the All-Star break… and just three more days before we find out if any reinforcements are coming via trade.