Salt City Seven: Bench of Misfits, Danny Speaks & More

Jazz reserves like Beasley have wiggled their way into the hearts of fans. (Trent Nelson, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Every Monday during the regular season here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven, with a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

Even after a couple of weekend losses on the East Coast, Utah remains the toast of the league. At the close of Monday’s basketball business, the enigmatic Jazz were in a virtual tie for first in the Western Conference, just percentage points behind divisional foes Portland and Denver. And one of the main reasons for their early success is by now obvious: their surprisingly capable second unit.

“Surprisingly capable” might sound like a backhanded compliment, but Utah’s five most used reserves didn’t exactly come into the season at peak value. Collin Sexton and Malik Beasley were the bright spots, the former having been one of the prizes of the blockbuster Donovan Mitchell trade. But Sexton only played 11 games last season, and Malik Beasley was coming off a down year too (12.1 ppg on sub-average efficiency).

After those two, it felt even dicier. It’s not an exaggeration to say that Rudy Gay and Talen Horton-Tucker were the players who excited Jazz fans the least a month ago, and late first-round rookies like Walker Kessler seldom contribute meaningfully to winning in year one.

And yet… those five together have been Utah’s best high-volume lineup, outscoring opponents by 16.1 per 100 possessions so far (+18.9 if you exclude garbage time and heaves). The collection of misfit toys has become a strength for the Utah Jazz, extending leads in some games and keeping the club in striking distance other nights. The group has runs totaling 23-8 in Philadelphia on Sunday. A night earlier, Beasley’s shooting and Sexton’s rim pressure kept Utah within striking distance. Sure, both of those games ended in losses, but the Jazz bench did their part.

It’s Utah’s second-used lineup so far, and it’s a good thing they’re playing winning basketball, because the two most common variations of the starting five are both playing essentially even: the main starting group is -7 (raw) in 139 minutes and the group with Beasley in Jarred Vanderbilt’s spot is -3 in 34.

It’s still early for lineup data to mean much in a predictive sense — the quintet we’re lauding here has played just 79 possessions. But they’ve been enough of a motor for the Jazz’s early success that it’s worth looking at what each guy is doing really well. In order of total minutes:

• Beasley is shooting 42% from three, but more important is his willingness to bomb away: 66% of this shot attempts are from outside the arc, tops among Jazz rotation guys. (He also is capable of getting after it defensively, like he did with two big late stops in Washington.) He and Clarkson ranked 10th and 5th, respectively, in total threes made coming into Monday.
• Sexton puts a ton of pressure on defenses, and it often results in easy points. He drives 8.5 times per game and gets fouled on 14.8% of them. The only player with at least eight nightly drives who draws more fouls on paint forays is Giannis Antetokounmpo. In all, 43% of his shooting possessions (FGA + shooting fouls drawn) come at the rim, an elite figure for a 6’2″ guard.
• Speaking of drivers, Horton-Tucker has a way of making smaller defenders just bounce off of him as he rumbles to the hoop. Sure, he can get a little wild at times, but the same spirit that leads to those daring attempts also cracks the defense open a few times a game. In that sense, he’s not unlike the wildly popular Clarkson, who also won over the fan base by straddling the line between audacious and “umm wut.”
• Gay is still waiting for his shot to come on — career low .445 true shooting… ugh — but there’s something to be said for knowing where to be. Somehow, the veteran has the best DRtg of the rotation guys (93.6) and he trailed only Kessler with a +16.0 net rating.
• Kessler leads the Jazz in FG% (66.7%) and you’ve undoubtedly heard his defensive “instincts” lauded multiple times per broadcast. But it’s true: his 4.1 blocks per 36 minutes trails only Phoenix center Bismack Biyombo.

There’s another lineup data quirk that, if it holds, might mean something. Small sample sizes be damned, but so far Utah’s best two lineups on a per-minute basis are when Sexton appears with the other four starters in lieu of Vanderbilt (+54.3 outside of garbage time, but only 48 possessions) and when Jordan Clarkson runs with the bench mob in Sexton’s spot (+70.1, 45 possessions). If anything remotely like that holds over a big chunk of the season, we might see more crossover from Sexton and Clarkson.

Either way, few people expected those exact five guys to be as good together as they have been. Even when it’s just a variation of that group, that’s mostly where the Jazz have been winning basketball games. So far this season, Utah is a raw +60 in all lineups that feature at least three of those five dudes, and +3 in all other minutes.

Keep an eye on Utah’s bench of misfits.

In the words of Jazz players/people

“Pleasantly surprised… I like a lot of the players on our team. But the fact that they’ve jelled so well so early is fun. There is a lot of movement and a lot of guys moving the ball. That’s a fun way to play. And I think they’re all enjoying it very much.”

-Team CEO Danny Ainge, to Sports Illustrated

Angry Danny memes are funny and all, but smart people have said all along that the Jazz’s intention was never to be B-A-D. Rather, Ainge and general manager Justin Zanik assembled a team without a true star, sure, but they also made intentional moves to balance the roster and put skilled players at every position. That’s something you don’t do if you simply want to lose games.

The goal, at least for now, is likely more about seeing what the Jazz have and fomenting development, rather than losing or (gasp!) winning games. Folks with knowledge of how the front office is thinking say that the Jazz feel like this early success gives them more options, not fewer. They still have more unprotected picks than anybody and they have a bunch of capable players whose stock has likely risen with Utah’s head-turning start.

But wherever they go from here, it will be with a longer-term lens than the franchise has operated with in the past three years. “We’re in the process of trying to build a team for the now and for the future,” Ainge continued in that SI interview.

Key stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week

76

Monday’s game in Los Angeles marked the third time this season they’ve dropped at least 75 points by halftime. No other team has more than one such game. The 139 points Utah ended the night with are tied for the third highest output in a game this season.

297

Mike Conley Jr. has made just one of his last 11 three-point attempts and is having his worst true shooting campaign in five seasons at the moment — which is helping obscure the fact that he is just on another level right now as a creator. Only Tyrese Haliburton and Nikola Jokic have created more points through assists than Conley’s 297. Of his 14 double-digit assist games as a Jazz man, five have come in the last four weeks.

52.9%

We’ll keep citing this crazy stat until it stops being true or until it stops sounding ridiculous, whichever comes first. Of the 13 NBA players who have guarded at least 80 shots at the rim, Lauri Markkanen now boasts the lowest FG% allowed at 52.9% — that’s lower than Rudy Gobert (54.3%), Brook Lopez (54.3%), Nic Claxton (56.1%), everybody. Clint Capela has challenged 77 rim attempts at 51.9%.

45.2%

This week featured the Jazz’s best shooting game of the season (64.2% eFG vs. LAL) and the worst (45.2% vs. Philly).

102.6

The halfcourt defense that was a hallmark of Utah’s October success has softened. Through Halloween, Utah was holding opponents to 90.0 points per 100 against their set defense, good for 6th in the league over that span. Since November 1, they’re allowing 102.6, second last in the association.

Projecting the Jazz’s place in the bigger picture

We don’t have to do Knicks/Lakers schadenfreude all season long, but since it’s too early to talk about playoff projections (and we’re sure as hell not talking about tanking math while the Jazz are 10-5), let’s have some fun.

Here’s a quick comparison between the three players the Jazz brought back in the Mitchell trade and the three players the Jazz reportedly were targeting from the Knicks.

Acquired:

• Markkanen: 21.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists, .631 TS%, 2.3 EPM wins added
• Sexton: 14.0 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, .589 TS%, 0.2 EPM wins added
• Ochai Agbaji: 3.3 points, 1.7 rebounds, 0.2 assists, .453 TS%, -0.1 EPM wins added

Rebuffed by Knicks on:

• RJ Barrett: 18.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, .526 TS%, 0.6 EPM wins added
• Obi Toppin: 10.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.1 assists, .607 TS%, 0.4 EPM wins added
• Quentin Grimes: 2.0 points, 0.6 rebounds, 0.4 assists, .506 TS%, 0.0 EPM wins added

Obviously the picks from New York could have wound up being more valuable. But cumulatively, the Jazz are getting much more from the players they acquired, starting with Markkanen who is ninth in the NBA in EPM wins added:

• 39.1 points instead of 31.0
• 13.2 rebounds instead of 9.1
• 4.2 assists instead of 4.3
• .606 combined TS% instead of .552
• 2.4 wins added instead of 1.0

Welcome to town, Knicks!

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz outing

Let’s recognize the top performers from two wins and two losses!

Jazz 139, Lakers 116: Jordan Clarkson. For a second straight game, Clarkson came out in the first half just operating on another spiritual plane. He had his second straight 17-point first half, this time on the way to 22-4-4 for the night and +16, best among the starters. The other candidate was Markkanen, who bounced back impressively after struggling against Anthony Davis in the first half. He finished with 23 points on 15 shots. Conley was the perfect game manager — 12 assists! — and Talen Horton-Tucker got some votes after stamping it on his former team a couple different times.

Jazz 125, Hawks 119: Mike Conley. Brutally tough call. Markkanen dominated early and often (32 & 8, six threes). Conley was a maestro (13 assists). Beasley was red hot (18 points, six threes). Walker really impacted the outcome in limited minutes (12 on perfect shooting, three blocks, +14). And Clarkson did more Clarkson things (23-4-5). When there are this many candidates, I often look at who impacted the game most during a decisive stretch, and that was Conley. When the game got close late (100-98 Jazz), Conley returned and assisted a three, a layup and two more threes. Then he hit a floater of his own and sunk a free throw before assisting another three and a dunk. That’s 16 points assisted and three points scored in a 4-minute span, putting the Jazz up 10. Point God stuff. But Markkanen’s third 30+ game would usually make it automatic, and Kessler was the people’s choice.

Strong in Defeat:

• Jazz 112, Wizards 121: Talen Horton-Tucker. Sexton has a case for the consolation prize too, after leading the bench with 17 points on a night when the bench was the only reason this was relatively close late. Same goes for Beasley, who poured in six threes on a 16-6-3 night. But THT’s night was just a bit more the story of the game, and I often lean a little more that way on losses than I do for wins. His first Jazz double double featured a 10-assist performance, just one off his career high. He also had the best combination of personal stats and impact on the scoreboard (+13).
• Jazz 98, Sixers 105: Malik Beasley. It’s Beasley’s turn this time after the Jazz bench once again keeps the squad in the game. Between Beasley’s team-high 18, four threes, and some late attacking by Sexton (15 for the game), the brightest spots for Utah once again came from that bench crew. 

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action

The very busy Jazz — league leaders heading into Monday with 15 games played, and only the Rockets can match their 10 road games — finally get to spend a few nights in their own beds.

Tuesday 11/15, Jazz vs. Knicks: This was originally supposed to be the big showdown between Mitchell and the team he helped elevate to contention in a 5-year stint as leading scorer. Instead, Mitchell resides in Cleveland and this is just another game. The Knicks are stuck in mediocrity at 6-7, and the guys they chose to held onto are, um, struggling. (See above.) They have a bottom-five defense, partially because they give up the third highest proportion of threes.

Friday 11/18, Jazz vs. Suns: Phoenix has suddenly lost four of its last six including a late-game collapse on Monday night, and Chris Paul has missed three games with a heel issue. The bigger issue for the Suns is that CP3 has looked a bit more mortal this season, averaging a career-low 9.5 points on 37-27-88 shooting splits. That combined with Cam Johnson’s injury prognosis (out 1-2 months) and Jae Crowder’s continued absence have left the Suns a bit more Devin Booker-dependent than they’d like to be, but he’s been superb. Mikal Bridges has also been red hot (43% from deep), and the Suns once again have a top-five offense and defense.

Saturday 11/19, Jazz @ Blazers: Portland’s strong start (9-4) has been nearly as surprising as Utah’s. What makes it even more remarkable is that they’re excelling on the defensive end — they’re the #6 defense, although a little closer to average when you take out garbage time and heaves. They made a bet that putting more long athletes around Damian Lillard would help them finally forge an identity, and it looks like it has paid off. Anfernee Simons had taken another leap, Jerami Grant is back to averaging 20-plus (on 46% outside shooting), and the team is 6-2 when Lillard plays. And we still haven’t even seen mid-level exception signee Gary Payton II, a bulldog guard who can shoot and defend.

Random stuff from the Jazz community

Jacques Vaughn’s promotion to the head coach job in Brooklyn gives us a good opportunity to check in on former Jazzmen currently patrolling the sidelines of various NBA teams.

11 teams employ 15 Jazz alumni as coaches.

Also fun:

• This!
• Congrats to Beasley on kiddo number two!
• Clarkson remains a gift.
• Thanks to all those who have served and sacrificed!

Four weeks down!