Salt City Seven: Common Bugaboos Resurface, Ainge Hired, COVID Watch & More

Conley sat on Saturday as the Jazz lost their second straight game (Francisco Kjolseth via Salt Lake Tribune)

Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

There was a moment in the season’s first Jazz-Wizards matchup when Mike Conley Jr. ditched the script with a great in-the-moment read. He curled around a Rudy Gobert flare screen and then was supposed to come back towards the middle for an elbow pick-and-roll with the big man. But he noticed his man was playing him from the top, so he abandoned the scripted action, turned his shoulder quickly to seal the defender behind him, and went to the basket.

Gobert instantly recognized the improvisation and rolled in behind his point guard. The defense panicked, sending everything but the kitchen sink to stop them, and Bojan Bogdanovic got a wide open corner three.

In this past week’s Jazz-Wiz rematch, however, that improvisation just wasn’t there. Their best defense-solver, Conley, was out for planned rest, and other ball handlers just weren’t riffing quite the same way. Donovan Mitchell had an excellent individual performance, and Bogdanovic had some success attacking off of pressure. But largely, the Wizards’ defensive schemes stymied the Jazz offense, limiting them to their third worst output of the season on that end.

That is especially relevant because of how Washington was defending: they were switching most screening actions, a form of defense that has been a foil at times for the Jazz. Utah mostly tried passing around those switches and/or making 1-on-1 plays. The result was an anemic 102.0 points per 100 possessions, including just 88.4 in the halfcourt¹.

There is no one answer for beating a switching defense, and Jazz coach Quin Snyder frequently preaches the many counters that are available. There have been individual games where an opponent threw that at them and they quickly sliced it apart, just like they have had games where they quickly solved challenges posed by 5-out units, stretch bigs, drop bigs, or whatever other opponent ploys are supposedly Jazz kryptonite. There isn’t a type of opponent, scheme or system that the Jazz haven’t had success against on a given night, finding their counters and calmly executing their way to a win.

But on Saturday, those reads weren’t there. For example: slipping the pick as a switch counter. I counted 17 times that Gobert either a) had nobody between him and the basket after slipping a switch, or b) had a both feet in the paint with a smaller defender on him, but didn’t get the ball.

You could quibble on whether the pass was the right play on all of those. Fine. Even if they throw the ball towards the rim on half of those, the NBA’s leading dunker is going to cash most of those in — like he did here, on one of the rare occasions he did get the ball and took three guys to the rim with him. The notion that Gobert can’t finish those is silly and antiquated. He’s been one of the top-5 roll men in the league for several years now, with improved hands and finishing. He shoots 81% in the restricted area. And even if he does get fouled, he is up to 67% shooting from the stripe, which means a possession that ends in him getting wrapped up is worth, on average, 1.34 points to the Jazz, well above even their league-leading offensive rate in the halfcourt. And after a few possessions end with a punishing dunk or a free-throw trip, the defense would start to react, resulting in cleaner looks for outside shooters as guys crash the paint to react to the big dude. It’s just the smartest thing to do on most of those 17 plays.

And it’s not actually about Gobert at all, really. It’s about the fact that the Jazz will struggle to beat switching defenses if they aren’t ready to make that pass. If they don’t get better at reading those situations before the postseason, we will be here in May and June talking about a switching defense gumming up the gears of the Jazz’s offensive machinery. They have to take what the defense is giving them — and in this case, the defense is letting the NBA’s most prolific dunker head toward the rim with nobody in front of him. They should have sent a thank you card. Instead, they posted a season low in paint points (30).

Another common Jazz bugaboo appeared a night earlier, but on the opposite end: the Jazz simply could not keep the ball in front on defense on Friday. Once again, this is something they don’t always do poorly, but it’s another issue that if they don’t get better at soon, it will be something we talk about in the context of another disappointing spring. San Antonio typically shoots at 47.1% on drives, a perfectly average figure at 15th in the league; against the Jazz they shot 69.6% on drives instead. A whopping 54.3% of their 2-point shots on Friday were unassisted, because their ball handlers were able to simply break the Jazz defense apart. Like the switch-counter offense, this is something the Jazz just need to get better at — either through individual improvement or by general manager Justin Zanik finding defensive reinforcements from elsewhere.

None of these issues are death sentences. Again, there are times the Jazz defend on ball well, there are times when they pick apart switching defenses, and there are times when they render just about any other tactic futile with their heady play and talented roster.

But the playoffs are all about forcing a team to beat you with the thing they do second or third best, instead of letting them live where they’re most comfortable. Right now, the Jazz are less comfortable against switching defenses than against most other gambits, so they WILL continue to see this until they demonstrate the mental readiness to smash it apart with smart counters.

In their own words

“It’s a really good team… I’m not sure what needs to be done (with the roster), but we’ll look with Justin’s help and his staff and Quin, and try to figure out a way to make our team better, but the team is pretty dang good.”

-New Jazz basketball CEO Danny Ainge

Hiring Ainge is, on paper at least, a no-brainer. He is objectively about as qualified to guide the ship of basketball operations as anybody, with more than 40 years in professional sports and more than two decades as the lead decision-maker for one of basketball’s most storied franchises. He presided over different reloading phases in Boston, including one that culminated in a title.

But sure, there is reason to worry about what Ainge’s appointment as alternate governor means for Zanik, by all accounts a good and well-respected general manager. So it was encouraging how often Ainge tried to reassert that Zanik is in charge.

For his part, Ainge intends to clock in every day and bring his perspective to the basketball side of the organization as well as to other parts of the business. But it will be Zanik fielding calls from 29 other teams, Ainge insists, and he doesn’t plan on working the same 16-18 hour days he put in for the Celtics.

“I’m in load management,” Ainge quipped.

Ainge’s new boss, Jazz owner Ryan Smith, echoed the collaborative tone and shared his excitement at watching Ainge, Zanik and Snyder all “riff” together about basketball issues. But when asked to clarify the exact decision-making hierarchy, Smith did leave some room for interpretation.

“Externally in the league, it’s pretty clear: call Justin,” said Smith. “And then how we make our decisions internally will kind of be how we make our decisions internally… I’d normally put the best people around the table and make the right decisions, and that’s what we’re doing here.”

Here’s one thing to note: the way Smith described the Jazz’s aspiration to transition “from strength to strength” under Ainge’s leadership, it’s clear he did not hire the longtime exec to do nothing. Stay tuned.

Stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week.

.500

Weirdly, the Jazz are 6-6 in their last 12 games in Salt Lake City, a rare spell of home mediocrity for the club that was 31-5 inside Vivint a season ago. There’s no one issue at play, either; they’ve lost games with bad offense, bad defense, with late collapses and turnover-fests. They’re tied with Phoenix for the best road record in the West at 10-3, but they definitely need to clean up their play at home.

3rd

The Jazz had their third worst defensive performance of the season against the Spurs on Friday, and then followed it up with their third worst offensive night of the year against Washington. 

30

The 30 paint points the Jazz had on Saturday vs. Washington were a season low. The previous low as 36.

0-3

The Jazz have lost all three games this year that Conley has sat due to rest, despite the fact that their opponents in those three games have a combined .444 record.

+14.7

Back-to-back losses notwithstanding, the Jazz still have the best lineup in the league by efficiency differential, minimum 300 possessions. Their typical starting lineup has played 727 possessions together² and outscores opponents by 14.7 points per 100 possessions. The two versions of the Conley- and Gobert-led hybrid unit are +15.3 (with Rudy Gay) and +15.0 (with Eric Paschall), giving the Jazz three of the best six lineups in the league with at least 200 possessions. 

Keeping track of the Jazz’s place in the wild, wild West.

With more than 70 NBA players entering health and safety protocols in the month of December alone, it’s becoming increasingly clear that availability is going to be a huge factor in deciding the standings. Let’s look around the .500-plus club in the West (in standings order) to see what’s up. Although keep in mind that this stuff is changing constantly. As of this writing…

Phoenix. The West-leading Suns don’t currently have anybody in protocols, and Devin Booker just returned after a hamstring-related absence that cost him seven games (Suns went 5-2). Big men Frank Kaminsky and Dario Saric are both out for the time being with knee issues.

Golden State. The Warriors have two starters (Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole) in protocols, plus three rotation players who are listed day-to-day. Klay Thompson is ramping up towards a January return, and James Wiseman may return sometime after that.

Utah. The Jazz are really healthy at the moment, with nobody in health and safety protocols and only a couple of health concerns at the very back of the roster. Conley continues to load manage.

Memphis. Superstar Ja Morant may be clearing protocols soon. Rookie Ziaire Williams is still in protocols, and the rest of the regular rotation is mostly healthy at present.

LA Clippers. Marcus Morris Sr. is the only Clipper in protocols, but Kawhi Leonard remains out indefinitely and Paul George has missed five straight games with an elbow issue (Clippers 3-2 over that stretch).

Denver. Michael Porter Jr. is in protocols, but he was likely out for the season anyway. Guards Jamal Murray and PJ Dozier are both rehabbing torn ACLs.

LA Lakers. Four Laker role players are in protocols, Anthony Davis is out for a month, and Kendrick Nunn has yet to debut as a Laker.

Minnesota. Anthony Edwards, Patrick Beverley and three other rotation players for the 8th-place Wolves are in protocols. 

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

Unfortunately we have more consolation prizes to give out than Wilsons this week. Here’s who excelled in the Jazz’s lone win since our last SC7 installment, plus in the losing efforts:

Jazz 124, Clippers 103: Donovan Mitchell. The popular vote said to give this to Bogey, but this is one of those rare occasions where I’m going to exercise my veto power. Statistically, I just have a hard time giving it to a player with 20 points (only 10 shots) and one assist when right next to him on the stat sheet is a line showing 27 points (only 15 shots) and six assists. In terms of the specific narrative of this game, the Jazz put the hammer down in the third quarter, which is precisely when Don took charge with 13 points on 5-for-5 shooting. I just think it’s a no-brainer, and inpredictable.com agrees; their calculations say Mitchell had the biggest impact on Utah’s win probability by putting the game away in the third. If someone were to steal this from Mitchell, it would probably actually be Gobert: 20 points, 17 rebounds, three assists, two blocks, 8-for-10 shooting.

Strong in defeat:

• Jazz 126, Spurs 128: Conley. This is a tough one. Mitchell scored 11 to power the Jazz’s big second quarter, but then had a 1-for-7 third when things began to deteriorate. Gobert was phenomenal overall (16 & 14, plus two blocks) but the Spurs shot 7-for-9 at the rim with him nearby, one of his worst nights in the defensive paint of the season. So I’m going Conley. He also had a rough third quarter as it was all falling apart, but really gave the Jazz a chance late. With the Jazz down four entering the final minutes and Mitchell in the locker room, the Jazz turned to Conley and he produced eight points and assisted a Bogey layup, part of a 14-8 Jazz push to tie it. By then Mitchell was back and added seven late points of his own, but let’s go Conley for this one: 18-6-6, and he and Gobert were the only Jazz starters with a positive plus-minus (+7). Jordan Clarkson had an efficient 21.
• Jazz 103, Wizards 109: Gobert. Mitchell’s 32-3-5 line made him the most obvious candidate, but on a night when the only reason the Jazz had a chance at all was because of their defense, I’m going with the guy whose opponents shot 9-for-25 (36%) with him guarding. Gobert didn’t impact the offense as much in this game (see above), but still shot 4-for-4 from the field on his way to 11 points, 19 boards, six blocks. It’s the first time since 1999 (Dikembe Mutombo) that a player had at least 19 rebounds and six blocks without missing a shot from the field.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action.

The Jazz’s 6-game homestand marches on… culminating in the Christmas Night Game!

Monday 12/20, Jazz vs. Hornets: Gordon Hayward has shot just 20% from three against the Jazz in his career, easily the lowest career split in that category. (It’s also the smallest sample size — just five games — since Hayward spent his first seven years in Jazz colors.) Overall, Hayward is back to 19-5-4 averages 47-41-85 shooting splits, essentially matching his 3-year peak in Utah (20-5-4 on 45-37-83 shooting) that culimated with his only All-Star appearance. The head of the snake for Charlotte, though, is LaMelo Ball, a dynamic offensive engine who seems to always think two or three steps ahead. He leads a fast (4th in pace) Charlotte offense that is still also efficient (5th in eFG%) and cautious (3rd in TO%). They will be coming off a tough back-to-back though, having been boatraced in Phoenix on Sunday.

Thursday 12/23, Jazz vs. Timberwolves: After sweeping the season series against the Jazz last season, Minnesota lost by 32 in the team’s first meeting this season. The Jazz can expect a more prepared and motivated opponent this Thursday, but also a thinner opposing roster. The Wolves currently have five players out in health & safety protocols, including young star Anthony Edwards, second on the team in both scoring and usage. They were still able to edge the Mavs on Sunday night, their fourth win a row after a 5-game skid that included that home loss to Utah. They’ll play the Mavs again on Tuesday — this time in Dallas — before heading to Utah for Christmas Eve Eve.

Saturday 12/25, Jazz vs. Mavericks: Christmas basketball, baby! The Jazz and Mavs will conclude a 5-game slate on what I can imagine will be far from a Silent Night at Vivint Arena. Dallas is reeling with health and consistency issues, at 4-8 since Thanksgiving. Superstar forward Luka Doncic has missed eight games this season, and the Mavs are 2-6 when he sits. He’s having his least efficient NBA season yet (45-33-70 shooting splits), perhaps the byproduct of these nagging ankle issues. Dallas is also currently without some other rotation players, including Reggie Bullock and Maxi Kleber who are out due to COVID-19 protocols. Kristaps Porzingis had a heck of a November, averaging 24-and-9 through Thanksgiving on 51-38-93 shooting. But since then, he’s averaging just 17 points and 20% from three.

Random stuff from the Jazz community.

Well you don’t see this every week:

Deron Williams after beating Frank Gore: “I’m going to go sit my old dumb a** down somewhere and let these professionals do their s**t. Honestly, I probably looked terrible out there…I’m one and done.” pic.twitter.com/QLdoIXeJQP

— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) December 19, 2021

Merry Christmas, Jazz fans! Be safe and happy this week, and reach out to those you love and those who could use your service, support or just a smile.