Salt City Seven: “Aight”-for-Eight, Mitchell’s Path, Hot Shooting & More

Mitchell’s been cooking, and his Jazz have won “aight” — er, eight — straight.

Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

It’s hard to cultivate a deep understanding of 30 NBA teams. Almost impossible. Someone with a certain amount of free time can track roster moves and follow high-level narratives easily enough. But it’s another thing entirely to invest the hours required to really frame a team’s basketball identity to the point where you can put individual performances in any kind of context — and then do that 29 more times. And then just as you start to get a handle on it, rosters change, players improve or league trends shift and you have to refresh or replace what you thought you knew. It’s tough.

There are maybe a dozen analysts who are diligent enough and smart enough to collect and catalog that much knowledge. We were reminded this week that none of them sit at the Inside the NBA desk.

Shaquille O’Neal admitted recently he hadn’t watched Houston center Christian Wood. Forget that Wood has been in the NBA for parts of five seasons and with six different teams — he also led the Pistons in scoring for the second half of last season, and this year is posting 24-and-11 for the Rockets. Seems like a guy that a well-paid analyst covering the league should at least know about. But Shaq didn’t.

He’s hardly alone in his ambivalence toward players in the league he covers. Inside has a whole recurring segment that celebrates Charles Barkley’s refusal to keep track of where players play, which feels a bit problematic since he is also fond of boldly prognosticating, apparantly without any knowledge of roster compositions beyond the star level. Seems to me that an outlet purporting to be the premier program for NBA fans should be embarrassed when its on-air talent fails to keep up with information pertinent to his job description, not publicize it or almost revel in it. Even Kenny Smith, the closest thing to a serious analyst sharing Stage 6 with anchor Ernie Johnson, admitted on Thursday that when they’re in the back watching games, “We’re not really watching.“

At this point they’re not even trying to trick us into thinking they care enough to keep their knowledge fresh. And that’s fine. Inside is an entertainment product first and foremost, and Shaq, Kenny and Chuck are there because some cross section of NBA fans finds them entertaining. Cool. 

The problem comes when their detached, uninformed banter gets mistaken for real analysis. That’s what happened when Shaq decided to make a running joke about Rudy Gobert’s $205 million extension by demonstrating how little he knows about the tremendous impact the All-NBA center has on winning. And of course, it famously happened again on Thursday, night when Shaq inexplicably decided to ambush All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell on live air, turning a standard postgame interview into the most awkward sixty seconds of television since Kanye hijacked the Grammys.

While the postgame interview was cringeworthy, the bad take buffet actually started during the halftime show. Kenny wondered aloud whether Mitchell was poised for a superstar leap, and Shaq led off by proclaiming that Mitchell should be a second or third option. When pressed for supporting evidence, he mumbled some unintelligible nonsense until Barkley jumped in to rescue him. “He’s a great scorer,” Barkley chimed in, “but he makes zero impact on the rest of the game “ Really, Chuck?? Zero?! Shaq then parroted Barkley’s point back, as though it had been his thesis all along: “If he’s not scoring, what else can he do?”

Click to enlarge: Mitchell’s per-36 numbers (including assists & rebounds) track extremely well compared to where other modern superstar guards were after three seasons. (From a December article by Zarin Ficklin)

Back in reality, Mitchell’s per-minute figures for rebounds and assists coming into this season are actually right on pace with other modern superstar guards at a similar point in their career, our Zarin Ficklin discovered (see right). So once again, the fellas just plain got caught not knowing the facts behind their shoot-from-the-hip analysis. But even if they somehow accidentally stumbled into something that was statistically accurate, counting stats without context are a stupid way to craft an over-arching analysis about any player. For one thing, Mitchell plays in a system where multiple ball handlers generate the offense, and he plays next to an elite rebounding big. Different things are asked of him than were asked of, say, Dwyane Wade, because of the ecosystem he plays in and the other variables around him. Shaq and Chuck know that, because they’re not idiots. They’re simply too lazy to maintain enough knowledge about the Jazz to put any of that context around Mitchell’s career. 

But hang on, it got weirder.

After Mitchell powered his team to a seventh straight win with a brilliant 36-7-5 performance on TNT’s air, Shaq somehow thought it would be a good idea to tell Mitchell to his (virtual) face, “You don’t have what it takes to get to that next level.” Like… what?? That’s not a straw man or a paraphrase. That’s a quote.

Mitchell smirked. “Aight,” he offered back, not taking the obvious bait. Kenny tried to save the interview with some what-Shaq-meant retconning. It didn’t work. The whole thing was beyond weird.

Look, I don’t know what “superstar” means to anybody else. That’s a subjective term. I know that Mitchell is an All-Star, a top-25 talent. I know that he is 24 years old and keeps getting better. I know that he’s gregarious and engaging and the face of a franchise. I know that he has accomplished a bunch of really unique things that seem to indicate he’s on a path to being special. Usually when you share records with names like MJ, Kareem and LeBron, you’re at least on a pretty interesting arc:

• Joined Michael Jordan as the only modern players to average 36+ in a playoff series in his age-23 season or younger.
• Most points in a single playoff game since 1986 (Jordan).
• Most points in a playoff series (254) since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (260) in 1977.
• Third fastest active player to 5,000 regular season points, behind only LeBron James and Kevin Durant.
• Fastest player in NBA history to 600 made 3-pointers.
• Only Kareem (then Lew Alcindor) had a longer streak of 20+ playoff games as a rookie than Mitchell’s (and Jayson Tatum’s) seven straight in 2018.
• First player since 2006 (LeBron, in his third NBA season) to hit 25+ points and 10+ rebounds in a playoff debut.
• Most wins (48) by a team led in scoring by a rookie since David Robinson’s Spurs in 1989-90.
• First rookie to lead a team in scoring during a 10-game winning streak since 1960 (Wilt Chamberlain).

I also know that, from an objective standpoint, he’s not a top-10 player yet. At least not in terms of overall impact. He’s still learning to control the flow of the game, and sometimes his creativity works against him. He needs to improve defensively, and yes, he could be more conssitent even at the things he does really well. He’s off to a special start, but there’s still some clear room for him to impact the game even more.

If that’s what the guys meant, then that’s fair. To Kenny’s credit, his initial point was that Mitchell is seeemingly at a fork in the road: ready to either veer toward that level of megastar impact or instead level off as a very good player who will make All-Star teams and highlight reels but not necessarily hang banners. That’s why we watch: to find out which guys’ hunger will take them that final distance. We don’t know yet if Mitchell will top out as a top-25 guy, as an All-NBA talent, as an MVP candidate, or as one of his generation’s best. It’s a fascinating question that will be answered over time.

Shaq and Chuck, though, were not earnestly engaging with that set of questions. They instead preemptively and casually disqualified the young guard from superstardom without any real substantiation, then backed into some baloney counting-stats argument which, it turns out, doesn’t hold water anyway. It was a bizarre stand to take in the first place. Shaq upping the ante by laying his lazy assessment at Mitchell’s feet in a live interview was downright unprofessional.

The whole thing said way more about Shaq (and Chuck) than it did about Mitchell, who dealt with the nationally-televised ambush about as maturely as one could possibly imagine. He made it clear he needs no defending, and that’s not what this is. Rather, it’s an invitation to really think about the level of work and commitment it takes for someone to truly credential themselves and their analysis as worthy of your attention.

Shaq and Chuck keep loudly and enthusiastically reminding us that they are not interested in offering that type of analysis. Someday, we’ll all start believing them.

In their own words.

“We don’t really give a s-h-i-t [Yes, he spelled it] about what other people think about our team.”

-Joe Ingles, on postgame radio as relayed by @UTJolley

“At the end of the day, whatever they want to call us, if we keep winning games, they will have to watch us anyway. Hopefully they have to watch us until July. And then they can call us whatever they want.”

-Gobert, via The Athletic’s Tony Jones

“Aight. That’s it.”

-Donovan Mitchell

I couldn’t pick one.

It wasn’t just the Jazz and their fans who were perplexed by the on-air behavior of TNT’s guys. Former Jazz teammates weighed in, as did the league’s top stars. Even real, honest-to-goodness NBA analysts seemed confused about whatever Shaq was trying to accomplish in that interview.

But the best reaction of all was Mitchell, explaining after the weirdness why he didn’t want to distract from the team’s hot streak by endulging the nonsense. If you need any indication of what Mitchell is all about as a teammate and a person, watch this!

Stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week.

8

The Jazz haven’t just won eight straight games — they’ve also played eight straight fourth quarters without trailing or being tied for a single instant. In fact, they have only trailed after halftime for a total of 11:18 (9:06 vs. Denver, 2:12 in the second NOP game) out of a possible 192 minutes during this streak. They are just plain dominating right now.

40%+

During this streak, six of the Jazz’s regulars are shooting 40% or better from 3-point territory — basically every one of the main eight guys outside of the bigs. And ninth man Georges Niang isn’t too far off at 37.5%. Ingles’ 57% leads the way, followed by Mitchell’s 50%, Royce O’Neale’s 47%, and Mike Conley’s 44%. Bojan Bogdanovic and Jordan Clarkson are both a hair above 40%. It’s no surprise then they have converted an NBA record number of total threes through 15 games, per ESPN Stats & Info.

83-24

In each of this week’s three wins, the Jazz took control with big run. Against the Pels on Tuesday, they outscored their guests 27-8, led by Bogey’s nine, and in the rematch they swung things with a 34-11 surge that included 18 from Mitchell. Against GSW, they didn’t wait to make their big run, outscoring the Dubs 22-5 right out the gate, including nine apiece from O’Neale and Conley.

29-7-5

Ahem. Mitchell’s averages per the week. And, since the Jazz were blowing teams out all week, those numbers came on just 31.7 minutes per game. Convert them to per-36 figures and you get 33-8-6.

+10.8

The Jazz are now just 0.6 points behind the Lakers for the best efficiency differential (excluding garbage time) in the league. They currently have the #2 defense and the #4 offense in the league, per Cleaning the Glass, the only team in the league that’s top five in both, and they’re smoking teams by 10.8 points per 100 possessions. According to CTG, they have the efficiency differential of a 65-win team. 

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

Keeping track of the Jazz’s place in the wild, wild West.

Let’s check in on how Western Conference teams are performing according to some macro indicators and projection systems.

A collection of metrics that have some predictive value.

The Nuggets are sneaking up on the top three as the Suns and Mavs have receded, all while the surprising Spurs and the surviving Blazers keep themselves in the mix. 

And the Jazz? Simply keeping pace with the elite LA teams.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action.

Utah completes its 6-game homestand this week, then visits some old friends just across the Rockies.

Tuesday 1/26, Jazz vs. Knicks: The crew gets a chance to atone for probably the worst lost of the season. It’s not that the Knicks are just plain bad — they are surprisingly coherent this season, even if they are 3-7 since they shocked the Jazz by storming back from 18 down. But the Jazz clearly lost focus, getting outscored 86-56 over the last two and a half quarters, and letting Austin Rivers go off to the tune of 14 points in just under four minutes. Yeesh. The Knicks have a bottom-five offense, but managed a 115.6 ORtg against the Jazz — Utah’s second-worst defensive outing of the year. Expect a more focused defensive effort this Tuesday.

Wednesday 1/27, Jazz vs. Mavericks: The Mavs have lost four of six, but COVID precautions have a lot to do with that. They’ve been down four or more rotation players for that entire stretch, mostly due to the league’s health and safety protocols. They’re a much better team than their current 8-8 record, and Utah has the tough task of facing them in consecutive games. 

Friday 1/29, Jazz vs. Mavericks: Defensively, Dallas is a bit of a paradox. They’re decent at preventing close shots, but subpar at affecting the ones their opponents do get (68% opponent FG% at the rim, third worst). Inversely, they’re not great at limiting 3-point looks, but their opponents shoot the third-lowest percentage from outside. Add that up and they still have the ninth best eFG% defense, but since they foul a ton, they have a fairly average defense overall. They’re beatable, but these games literally could come down to who makes free throws.

Sunday 1/31, Jazz @ Nuggets: Jokic continues to put up silly numbers (26-12-10, rounded) and the Nuggets have won six of eight to correct course after a so-so-start. My favorite Nuggets stat: nobody has played more than Denver’s 58 “clutch” minutes. So far, their third-ranked offense falls all the way to 18th when clutch time hits, and the stars aren’t immune: both the Joker and Jamal Murray see their true shooting drop by at least six percentage points in the clutch.   

Random stuff from the Jazz community.

One way to assess just how lopsided a victory was is to determine how early the winner scored the clinching point, reaching the number needed to outscore the other team’s 48-minute total.

• Milwaukee scored 118 points against the Jazz, a total Utah had eclipsed with 3:55 to go.
• Detroit had 86, which Utah outscored with 6:04 left.
• Cleveland scored 87, a total Utah passed with 11:20 left.
• Atlanta tallied 92, which Utah had surpassed with 11:06 to go.
• Denver’s 105 took the longest for Utah to beat; only 1:01 remained.
• NOP’s 102 were in Utah’s rear view mirror at the 6:36 mark.
• NOP’s 118 in the sequel took Utah a little longer to eclipse: 5:50.
• Utah had already beat GSW’s 108 total points by the 11:45 mark.

On average, the Jazz had these games won by the 6:57 mark. That is… unusual. They are just playing really good basketball right now.

That wraps another week in Jazzland.