Salt City Seven Returns: Competitive Fire, Playoff Race, Stepping Up Sans Bogey & More

Mitchell, Conley and Gobert all need to have big showings for Utah to succeed in Orlando. (David Sherman via espn.com)

It’s been a while, but the Salt City Seven is back!

Every week during the regular season begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. We put the SC7 on pause along with the rest of the basketball world, but with the 2019-20 set to officially resume this week, it’s time to get back to packaging the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from each week in the world of the Jazz.

An important quote from Jazz players or personnel from the week

“Players in our game love to play, love to compete. It’s not like there won’t be stuff on the line that motivates you.”

-Jazz coach Quin Snyder, on the absence of fans at games during the upcoming NBA Restart

Midway through the third quarter of a meaningless warm-up game, Jazz center and two-time Defensive Player of the Year award winner Rudy Gobert tracked Heat guard Tyler Herro as the latter curled around a baseline screen and caught the ball as he veered back towards the basket. Multiple decoy actions disguised the Heat’s real intent here, but Gobert sniffed out the play and detonated it. He cut off the passing angle until he was sure Herro’s plan was to elevate, and then he met the youngster at the rim, turning him away with a clean block of his would-be slam dunk as Herro’s own momentum send him to the floor. Gobert then hovered over his victim, shaking his head in a mild taunt as a reminder to the vanquished.

Gobert’s Jazz were listed as the home team in that tune-up affair, but there were no fiery multitudes to celebrate the rejection. It didn’t matter. Even in a game that history will forget almost immediately, Gobert’s own competitive tendencies were enough for him to treat that moment as an opportunity to reassert his dominance, with or without thousands of rabid supporters to egg him on. (And if you need more evidence that the players inherently care about an opportunity to compete, just watch the way all five Jazz guys react simultaneously when the refs initially get the call wrong and whistle a foul on Gobert’s swat. In a game that doesn’t count.)

It would have been both easy and understandable to suspect that an NBA game played without fans present would lack the competitive juices that a viewing public injects into the event. Count this writer among those who believed that these NBA Restart games would simply be missing something as the league relaunched its season in mostly empthy gyms in Orlando.

We were wrong.

That Gobert block was one of several dozen moments over the last few days of intersquad scrimmages to spell out the truth: that the players’ intrinsic competitive fire is going to be enough to imbue these games with intensity. Imagine when the games actually matter! Snyder was right when he explained on Wednesday that the competitive energy that matters the most will be the intensity of the 10 men on the court.

Multiple NBA players have said as much. A couple of days before he stood flexing over Herro, Gobert himself explained that, “When we’re on the court, we kind of zone in and forget what’s around.” 

In other words, put ten NBA guys on a court and you’re still likely to hear the chirping and barking you’d hear at a packed arena in the postseason. Athletes don’t reach this level without some inner pathology that puts winning — in any setting — somewhere just behind air and water on their hierarchy of biological needs. It’s why videos surface every offseason showing a player cooking in some random gym somewhere, with nobody present but his peers in this fraternity of basketball sociopaths. No video board, no screaming fans, no coaching staffs; if someone is keeping score, the urge to conquer takes over.

Starting this Thursday, players on 22 NBA teams won’t just be answering their inner sense of competitive pride; these upcoming games, starting the the nationally televised Jazz-Pelicans matchup on Thursday evening, matter. Six Western Conference teams could still finish as high as the No. 2 seed and as low as No. 7 based on the outcome of eight seeding games¹, and then of course they’ll shift into actual playoff games where an actual champion will be handed an actual Larry O’Brien trophy.

That’s not to say that the lack of fans won’t make things somewhat odd. Both Gobert and Snyder conceded that the environment in Orlando will be “a little different” from what they’re used to. Here are a few ways it could make an actual strategic difference.

Momentum. In a normal NBA game, there are times when a coach has to factor in a crowd’s energy when deciding whether to call a timeout to quell an opponent run. It could be easier (or harder) to shift momentum when there’s no crowd involved.

“Your crowd, particularly at home, gives you a lift, can help provide energy in situations even when you’re tired,” Snyder continued. “That’s obviously not going to be there so you’ve got to find other ways to accomplish that.”

Crowd momentum after the home team’s big run, anxiousness in the arena after the road team surges, those things are part of the game, and the human responses of 10 men in sneakers to those emotional stimuli literally decides games. Coaches may be less likely to burn a run-stopping timeout, which obviously will factor into the way the table is set for the rest of the game to unfold strategically. It could also make it harder for a team to manufacture emotional energy when they need it at a key moment in the game.

On-court communication. The other reality of a mostly-silent gym is that more on-court chatter is going to be discernible,  both to the viewing audience and (more importantly) to opponents inside the gym.

“With the fans (present), there’s a lot of things you don’t hear on the floor,” Gobert explained. “Now every little thing that you say is going to be heard.”

It’s going to be a competitive concern for sure, with some NBA players and coaches already talking about the need to use visual signals isntead of shouting out the play, lest the other team decode their communications. It might not make a huge difference to how Snyder operates; TV viewers already hear him exhort players to go “Under!” on a screen or run “Elbow chin! Elbow chin!” But for more subtle stuff like a specific defensive scheme or a cutter trying to sneak away from pressure, it will be a lot harder to be furtive.

And regardless of the competitive impact, there will certainly be a viewing impact. We’ll hear interactions we’ve never been able to really understand in a playoff setting before: playful banter, trash talk, even potentially confrontational stuff. The first time a chippy game descends into an on-court brouhaha, we may hear more than we bargained for.

Broadcasts. Speaking of the viewing experience, broadcasts are going to feel weird throughout this experiment. Obviously we can all read the scoreboard, so we knkow when it’s a tie game with the shot clock off in a pivotal Game 7. But when the energy — positive, nervous or otherwise — of 20,000 people comes seeping through our TV screens, we know it.

Broadcasters won’t even be in the gym with players in most cases, so even they will be at a disadvantage in terms of conveying the gravity of a moment. Already, I’ve seen multiple times when an announcer got the call wrong and then was summarily confused when the “wrong” team inbounded the ball. 

I have called games remotely before. It’s challenging. It’s not only harder to get the details right, but as an announcer you sort of just have to guess what the emotional tenor at the actual event. 

Refereeing. OK, first a major caveat: NBA officials are mostly really great at their jobs, and everything I said above about players is true of game officials. These guys want badly to do their job well, and they get it right far more often than public perception would suggest.

That said, we’ve all seen times when a clean contest was called as a foul because it sort of looked like a foul and then 19,000 people reacted as though they had just witnessed a mugging. I’ve personally seen a fan call a three-second violation — as in, the ref didn’t appear to be monitoring time in the paint, but then a nearby fan yelled it and the call was (correctly) made in immediate response. There are also times when it seems that a referee crew starts to call a game more tightly partially as a response to unruly crowds. (Former SCH and current Forbes writer Ben Dowsett recently wrote about some ref trends as other leagues have resumed in empty venues and how those trends might play out in the NBA.)

Will officiating be materially different in this unique environment? Probably not. But crowds can subtly (or not so subtly) influence a single call or the way an entire stretch of the game is called. It will be interesting to see if any officiating tendencies shift, if certain things get called more or less often, etc.

Expect the next 2-3 months of basketball to feel very different in some important ways. But as Snyder said — and as Gobert and others have shown — the lack of fans will not strip these games of their competitive fire. 

Tracking the wild Western Conference postseason race and the Jazz’s place in it

The Western Conference playoff race resumes this Thursday. Here’s what it looks like as we head into the NBA Restart.

Resuming the wild WC playoff race

First of all, since most lottery teams aren’t taking part in the Restart, everybody’s strength of schedule just got a lot stiffer on an absolute basis. The Lakers, Nuggets and Thunder have the most top-heavy remaining schedules among Western playoff teams. The Jazz, Mavs and especially the Clippers have the least heavy lifting to do over the final eight games.

Houston’s schedule looks hard on first glance, but that’s a bit artificial. Houston is the only team that still has to face both the Lakers and Bucks, but those juggernauts may have their respective No. 1 seeds locked up by those games. Houston’s average is also brought up by their remaining game against Indiana, but the Pacers won’t have Domantas Sabonis. On the other hand, they’ve already completed their games against the four teams above them that they can still catch, which means they don’t really control their destiny at all in terms of moving up.

Utah actually got fairly lucky in terms of the games that got pared off their schedule. They were originally slated to face the Lakers, Nuggets and Thunder two times each, but now will only have one game against those top-tier foes, and their one remaining battle with the Clippers got removed as well — which actually clinched the Jazz-Clips tiebreaker for Utah, who won the season series 2-1.

But here’s an interesting wrinkle with the Restart format: tiebreakers are going to matter a lot less this year. Because teams will have played varying numbers of total games, in a lot of cases an exact winning percentage tie is going to be impossible. For example, the Jazz will be mathematically unable to tie the Nuggets, who will end the season with 73 games to the Jazz’s 72. So the fact that Utah has already lost the head-to-head tiebreaker to Denver is completely moot. And in a strange way, this helps the Jazz. In a normal year, the Jazz would have to make up 2.5 games on the Nuggets to pass them — the 1.5 games by which they currently trail, plus a full game to avoid tiebreak scenarios. But because they can’t tie, this year it’s enough to finish a half game ahead, meaning they would only need to outperform Denver in the bubble by two games in order to pass them and seize the division title (provided they also keep OKC on their backs). Since they can inflict one loss on the Nuggets themselves, all they’d really need to do to climb into the third seed would be to beat Denver on August 8 and then outperform them by one win in the other seven games.

(That’s the best realistic seeding scenario for Utah, since making up three games on the Clippers is unlikely with just eight games left and no head-to-head matchups.)

There are oddities like that all throughout the standings. The Lakers, Nuggets and Mavs can’t finish in a tie with any conference foes, and the only team that could mathematically tie with Memphis is Phoenix, currently six games back.

Ties are possible, though, among the Clippers, Jazz, Thunder and Rockets, all of whom will end on the same total of 72 games. Houston would have the leg up there since they are likely to win their division. 

Stats that tell the story of the week or highlight a timely topic

+9.6

One way the Jazz will cope with the Bojan Bogdanovic injury is by pairing Royce O’Neale with Joe Ingles more often — and that’s a good thing. So far this season, that duo has the best Net Rating of any Jazz player pair with at least 500 minutes together. They also have the best defensive rating at 103.9². That last stat isn’t a fluke, either; O’Neale-Ingles also had the best DRtg of any high-minute player combo last season, at 97.0 in 673 shared minutes. Those two are both long, tough, and understand the Jazz’s schemes extremely well. Deploying them together will be a big key for Snyder

20.5 ppg, 26.7% usage

But it goes without saying that without Bogey’s 20.2 points per game and 25.6% usage, the real key for Utah will be unlocking another star-caliber option with the ball next to Donovan Mitchell. And that’s why the real key to these eight seeding games and the playoffs is going to come down to how Mike Conley plays. Frequent readers of this column know that the extent of Conley’s struggles have probably been overstated all season, but still: this would be the perfect time for Conley to start looking like Memphis Mike. His averages over the last three years — 20.5 points per game and 26.7% usage — are actually very similar to what the Jazz would need in order to replace Bogdanovic’s missing production. Can Conley get back to that version of himself? The answer to that question probably determines what the Jazz can accomplish at Disney World.

-0.5

Even if Conley, Ingles and O’Neale all play extremely well as they fill out the starting five around Utah’s All-Stars and compensate for Bogdanovic’s injury, the Jazz still have some hefty depth questions looming. Outside of the five projected starters, the entire rest of their roster has a combined career playoff Value Over Replacment Player of… -0.5. Emmanuel Mudiay has never made the postseason, Georges Niang, Tony Bradley and Ed Davis have each posted a 0.0 VORP in the playoffs, Jordan Clarkson had a -0.5 in his lone playoff run with Cleveland, and the remaining guys are rookies.

Someone will have to step up for the Jazz not to have serious problems at the back of their rotation. Almost anybody they face in the playoffs is bound to have at least a couple of guys coming off their bench who have played major roles for playoff teams in the past: guys like Dennis Schroder, Austin Rivers, Eric Gordon, Lou Williams, Moe Harkless and more.  

Breaking down the Xs and Os behind a Jazz score from the week

We’ve talked about a lot of guys who will need to play a bigger role as the Jazz enter the Restart without Bogdanovic. But someone I think we talk about far too little is O’Neale.

He’s going to need to gobble up some possessions, and not just as a spot-up shooter. Here, from the last game Utah played before the world shut down, are some plays where O’Neale gave the Jazz another look by putting the ball on the floor.

O’Neale off the dribble

None of those plays involve fancy X-and-O design or require anything too special of O’Neale, other than a recognition that his defender was off balance and a willingness to put the pedal to the metal. Still, there are times when the swingman is too shy about seizing opportunities like these, and he can’t be in Orlando. 

He drives left on the first one, drives right on the second one, and drives baseline on the last one. It’s all there. O’Neale just needs to trust those opportunities when they’re there, especially when defenders lunge at him because of his 41.2% 3-point shooting off the catch.

Ingles taking the Bogey role in set actions

Of course, in planned stuff, Ingles will primarily be the beneficiary of plays usually drawn up for the Croatian forward. Here’s a “BLOB” (baseline out of bounds) play they’ve run for Bogey but Ingles has been getting scripted looks like this since long before Bogdanovic chose Utah in free agency. Expect to see more of these drawn up for Joe.

The Jazz do a nice job disguising this, with Conley running a route that makes it look like he might be setting a backscreen for Bradley or even Ingles himself. Joe even helps sell it by throwing a little juke towards the hoop right after he inbounds. O.G. Anunoby is clearly worried about the play to the inside, so he stays near the basket. But what the Jazz are actually setting up here is a little baseline stagger flare with a handoff back to the inbounder. Anunoby guesses wrong, and winds up on the wrong side of a double screen and has just no chance of getting out to Ingles’ shot.

More of these scripted actions are going to be designed for Ingles, who could bounce back after a winter slump now that he’ll have a bit more role clarity.

After each Jazz win, Twitter helps us decide who was that game’s MVP or most memorable performer

We have nothing new in the Game Ball department this time around. The only regular season game the Jazz played since our last SC7 was a loss against the Raptors, and we only dole out Game Balls following Jazz victories.

So instead, let’s review where the Game Ball count stood heading into the stoppage:

• Gobert leads the way, with 14. Not surprising, since he’s the Jazz’s MVP.
• Mitchell is second, with nine. Not surpring, since he’s the Jazz’s co-MVP.
• Bogey is right behind with eight. The Jazz will miss him in Orlando.
• Ingles has gotten Game Ball four times.
• Conley and Clarkson each have three. 

A quick look ahead at Utah’s next seven nights of action.

Games! Basketball games! NBA basketball games that count!

Here’s what the Jazz have on their schedule between now and next Monday’s column.

(The Jazz also have one more intersquad scrimmage left, Monday at 3:30 p.m. MDT against the Nets.)

Thursday 7/30, 4:30 MDT, Jazz vs. Pelicans (TNT): The Jazz were right at the epicenter of the league’s suspension back on March 11, so it’s only fitting that they’d be right at the center of the action when things get going again on a nationally broadcast double-header. It’s not clear if Zion Williamson will be back with the Pels in time to play in this one, but a new set of more relaxed quarantine protocols for players returning to the bubble make it more likely. Either way, the Jazz should get a chance to bang around with former (and future?) teammate Derrick Favors and with Most Improved Player candidate Brandon Ingram.

Saturday 8/1, 1:30 MDT, Jazz vs. Thunder (ESPN): Get used to day games; there will be a lot of during this NBA Restart, including on weekdays. This weekend matinee is wildly important. This will decide the season series between Utah and OKC, which is important since this is one of very few teams the Jazz could actually find themselves tied with at season’s end. The Thunder are also likely the most intact team in Orlando; no key rotation players opted out of the bubble environment or are injured. They’ll need all of that help, as they have a league-high-tying five games coming against teams with .630 records or better.

Because after all, following a basketball team is supposed to be fun

Some very important news came out of Jazz practice last week: Headband Joe might be back.

Ingles famously started the legend of Headband Joe after he sustained a head injury in a game in Memphis back in November 2018. The training staff wrapped his noggin with a medical wrap so Ingles could stay in the game, and he took over, including with a big late three that prompted this celebration:

via GIPHY

Last Wednesday, Ingles appeared for his post-practice media interview wearing a headband — a real one this time. Ingles explained that he started wearing one in the practice facility in Salt Lake, partially because of his wild quarantine ‘do and partially to mess with Conley, a longtime headband wearer. When general manager Dennis Lindsey began to tease the Australian playmaker from the executive suite above the practice court, Ingles doubled down.

So could we see Headband Joe in an actual game? Ingles says it’s not likely. He did issue one caveat, though.

“If I play with it in a scrimmage and a play a good game, I can promise you it’ll be here to stay.”

Basketball is back. That’s it for this week, but keep an eye on SCH this week as the NBA resumes. We’ve added some new contributors and we’ll have a lot to say as the Jazz continue their season and their quest for contender status.