Salt City Seven: Defensive Identity, Jazz Are Real, Clarkson & Conley, More

Gobert has been controlling the paint so Utah’s guards can pressure shooters.

Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

Perhaps more than any other recent Jazz team, the 2020-21 outfit is starting to have a solid defensive identity. Other modern Jazz squads were good, mostly as a function of their anchor big, two-time DPOY winner Rudy Gobert. But this team has perhaps more of a style on defense, and it’s showing up on film and in the numbers.

They’re the anti-Bucks.

Modern NBA defenses are focused primarily on taking away the paint and taking away 3-point attempts (especially uncontested ones). Just about every team in the league shares those defensive goals, as analytics-informed basketball has taken over the league’s 30 offenses.

But few teams have the personnel or the ability to take away both of those shots. And getting too dogmatic about it can actually weaken the defense. Need proof? Washington, Brookly and Denver have three of the six defensive “location eFG%” figures in the league — or the expected eFG of opponent shots based on how many are coming from different spots on the floor. But all three have below-average defenses overall, despite limiting opponents to the “right” shots. It’s just hard to be everything at once.

The Bucks deal with this by making a choice: their top priority is mobbing teams at the rim. Drive on the Bucks and you can expect a crowd to assemble faster than on free Slurpee day. They challenge everydamnthing in the paint, with the fourth lowest percentage of opponent shots at the rim, and the tenth lowest success rate on those shots. (All of the data in this section is based on stats heading into Monday’s games and comes from Cleaning the Glass, which weeds out garbage time possessions and end-of-quarter heaves.)

They know this means they’ll give up some open shots, including from three. They allow an above-average number of threes per game — especially of the above-the-break variety as helpers dig down from the top — and their opponents convert the ninth highest percentage of them. They’re OK with that. They’ve chosen to live with that if it means they can hang a “closed for business” sign on the rim.

It can backfire when a team gets hot from outside, as it did in their January 8 loss to the Jazz. Likewise, in last year’s second-round series against Miami, the Heat outscored Milwaukee by 12.6 points per game from the 3-point line, despite not shooting a great percentage (.376 for the series). But they’re playing the percentages, and it works more often than not. They are a top-10 overall defense, after ranking #1 and #2 in the past two seasons.

After 13 games, it’s clear that the Jazz are making a similar ideological choice: they’re just going in the exact opposite direction of Milwaukee.

The Jazz already had a default defensive approach: drop the big, play conservative, and mostly try to deny drivers and shooters. Now, they’re a bit more surgical with their defensive choices. So far this season, they have been all about limiting and contesting threes, even if that means occasionally daring ball handlers to venture toward the rim. 

Jazz opponents get off the fourth fewest threes and make the ninth lowest percentage. They know that this outward pressure is going to allow certain guys to get into the paint, but they’re uniquely equipped to deal with that because they have 48 minutes of decent paint protection at the center position, led by a two-time Defensive Player of the Year.

If ball handlers want a piece of Gobert, the Jazz’s defensive scheme tells them essentially, “Sure, have at him.” Utah’s allowing a fairly average number of rim attempts, and teams are een making a decent 60.5% of them (league average is 62.3%). But they can live with that if it means teams won’t get a high number of open threes against them. They also know that Gobert’s intimidation will force a lot of guys to stop just short of the restricted area; they allow a boatload of “short mid” shots, but teams only convert on a pathetic 34.4% of them because of the quality of Utah’s interior defense. Ball handlers often throw up missiles like this one to avoid dealing with Gobert at the rim.

Here, Jamal Murray gets run off his shot twice, only to be forced into a defensive wall both times.

That doesn’t mean the Jazz are fine with perimeter defenders letting guys blow buy them. Quin Snyder talks all the time about better containment on the ball. But Gobert (and Derrick Favors, to a slightly lesser degree) allow the Jazz to accept the natural consequences of so much defensive pressure on shooters. Teams shoot 34% from three against the Jazz when Gobert is one the court, three full points lower than league average. This includes 31% on above-the-break threes, the specific shot that defenders can aggressively take away when Gobert is behind them. That’s the Jazz’s version of Milwaukee’s restricted area defense: they’re philosophically committed to not giving away open above-the-break looks. 

As with Milwaukee’s gambit, there will be individual nights it doesn’t work. And since 3-pointers are a higher-variance shot than restricted area attempts, when it goes off the rails, it can really sting. But the discipline around this defensive system is currently looking better than it has ever been for this iteration of the Jazz. They’re really leaning on the defensive personnel that differentiates them — and it is paying off.

In their own words.

“Obviously you’re always grateful for rest when it comes during the season, particularly if you’ve had a stretch the way we’ve had [8 games in 13 nights]. We’re just trying to stay in the moment, stay present, and whatever happens happens.”

-Snyder, after the Jazz’s Wednesday game at Washington was postponed indefinitely

The Jazz got a direct dose of this season’s weirdness this past week, when their date with the Wizards center became one of the 15 — and counting! — NBA games to date that have been postponed because the league’s COVID-19 safety protocols left a team with too few players to suit up.

It’s a sobering reminder that this season is being played against the backdrop of a pandemic that still rages on. Even as vaccines become available, several parts of the nation are experiencing their deadliest weeks since the novel coronavirus altered life for everybody in early 2020.

So after beating a shorthanded Cavs team for their third straight win on Tuesday night, the Jazz’s team plane headed towards the Rockiest instead of taking off in the direction of the nation’s capital. Snyder’s just hoping that with all the craziness, he can keep his team focused on basketball.

“It could have easily, the game could have been played, and for us not to look ahead is really the important thing,” he continued. “(We) are glad to be getting on a plane and going west instead of east. That said, I think our mindset has to be: get ready for the next game.”

Stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week.

#1

Utah has the best eFG% defense in the league, holding opponents to 49.8% outside of gargabe time and heaves. They have the second best halfcourt defense at 89.7 poinsts per 100, and the third best defense overall. They have the fifth best raw efficiency differential (and third best without garbage time), and all this despite playing a pretty typical opponent slate (13th hardest). They might be for real, folks.

+10.5

Mike Conley ended the week with a +10.5 RAPTOR rating, the second best in the league behind Nikola Jokic. That’s just one measurement of his impact (he’s 17th in Win Shares per 48, 21st in Wins Above Replacement, 22nd in Total Points Added, etc.), but holy smokes has he been important to the Jazz this year. Meanwhile, Gobert has a comfortable lead on the field in Defensive RAPTOR.

25.4%

Hawks guard Trae Young just cannot score when Gobert has his warmups off. After going 0-for-6 during Gobert’s minutes on Friday night, Young is now 15-fof-59 (25.4%) in the past three seasons when Gobert is on the court, per the ever-hustling David Locke.

50-40-90

Jordan Clarkson is treating his team and fans to one heck of a shooting performance. He’s currently averaging 17.5 points on 50% from the field, 42.9% from deep, and 93.8% from the line, now with nearly a fifth of the season in the books. If those figures held up for the year, he’d join a pretty elite group of seven players to average 17+ on a 50-40-90 shooting year: Larry Bird (twice), Mark Price, Reggie Miller, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Durant and Steph Curry.

6-2

Here’s a weird one… Utah winning despite allowing Denver to rebound a staggering 43.5% of their own misses made me curious: how rare it is to win with an opponent OReb% that high? Turns out, it’s not that rare. Leaguewide, teams are a surprising 6-2 in games where the opponent rebounds 41% or more of their misses. Denver extended a ton of possessions with offensive rebounds, but only scored 0.25 points per play on those opportunities, one of the lowest figures of any NBA game this season. Credit the Jazz’s great rim defense for that.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

At 9-4, the Jazz have gotten winning contributions from a lot of players.

Jazz 117, Cavs 97: Donovan Mitchell. Clarkson’s return to Cleveland made it tempting to choose him — for symbolic reasons, but also for his 21-8-4 line and +22. Ultimately, though, when Mitchell is this good, it’s hard to go anywhere else. He piled up a 27-3-4 line in just 30 minutes, and he did so efficienty (just 15 shots to get 27 points). Georges Niang also had his breakout night (14 and 5), and Bojan Bogdanovic had 20 points on 10 shots.

Jazz 115, Hawks 92: Mike Conley. Other guys had bigger counting stats, but nobody had Mike’s impact on the game. He was making shots and controlling the game right from the tip, and finished with 15 points (on 10 shots), eight assists, four steals, and a massive plus-30 in 27 minutes of action. His Net Rating for the night was +53.2 — that is insane. He was also largely responsible for Young’s 1-for-11 night, as he guarded the young All-Star for most of the game. Mitchell (26-3-4) and Gobert (15 & 13 on 6-of-7 shooting with four blocks) are the runners-up, and O’Neale made several big plays and helped put the clamps on Young.

Jazz 109, Nuggets 105: Jordan Clarkson. Mitchell took over in the clutch (8 of his 18 came in the final 5:16) after a rough start, but this one came down to Clarkson and Conley. Clarkson scored a team-high 23 (on 9-of-13 shooting) and his shot-making kept the Jazz attached during their shaky stretches. Conley’s impact on the game was again palpable, with eight assists, solid defense on Murray, and a team-best (by a mile) +17. Free throw misses marred his night a little, but the Jazz played much better on both ends with the veteran on the floor. Ultimately I decided to abide by the popular vote, especially since Clarkson could have easily gotten the Cleveland game ball, too. Gobert (15 points on 5 shots?!) was great again, too, especially with an O-board, assist, and dunk that sealed the win. Miye Oni is also turning heads on defense as he soaks up minutes in Joe Ingles’ absence.

Keeping track of the Jazz’s place in the wild, wild West.

The Jazz’s FiveThirtyEight playoff odds show them as a virtual lock for the postseason after a sharp rise in the last week and a half. On January 8, the forecasting site pegged Utah as 70% likely to make their fifth straight playoff appearance, and they start this week at 95%.

Their 5-0 record was the biggest reason they moved into the playoff lock category, but a landscape-altering trade helped, too.

Houston’s playoff odds plummeted when they traded former MVP James Harden to Brooklyn, and that meant other Western Conference teams got a boost in their odds. Six teams now have an 82% chance or better at qualifying.

For the Jazz’s part, they trail only the L.A. teams both in projected record and in Basketball-Reference’s SRS metric that weights their point differential based on strength of opponent and location. 

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action.

After their quick trip across the Rockies for Sunday’s game, Utah is now home for the next six games — even though they’ll only see four different opponents in that span.

Tuesday 1/19, Jazz vs. Pelicans: New Orleans used a visit to Sacramento to halt a 5-game skid on Sunday, but suffice it to say they have not been playing their best basketball overall. Zion Williamson is averaging 22.6 points, and Nickell Alexander-Walker has been a bit of a revelation, especially with 37 in a close to the Clippers last week. But so far this team goes as All-Star Brandon Ingram goes. When the 23.3-ppg scorer makes at least a third of his 3-point attempt, they’re 5-2. They’re 0-5 when he doesn’t. 

Thursday 1/21, Jazz vs. Pelicans: In a normal season, these sorts of home double-headers would be rare, but an effort to reduce COVID-19 exposure points, the league is having teams knock out multiple road games in the same trip to a given city. That adds to the challenge of facing a team with up-and-coming stars like New Orleans. At any rate, success at the rim might decide both matchups: the Pels are third best at getting to the rim but only 19th at converting. They’re also fifth best at limiting opponent shots at the rim, but 28th at opponent percentage when they do get there.

Saturday 1/23, Jazz vs. Warriors: Two-time MVP Steph Curry is looking more like himself, to the tune of 28-6-6. But his supporting cast just isn’t the same, and this younger version of the Dubs struggles to produce efficient offense (25th) or play good defense (17th). They’re still capable of catching lightning in a bottle, but so far it has taken a 30-plus night from Steph for them to have a shot — they’re 1-5 when he falls short of that mark.

Random stuff from the Jazz community.

Play of the week?

First, Gobert keeps the rebound alive by patty-caking it off the glass. Then Mitchell makes his amazing save, flipping it nearly 40 feet as he lunges in the opposite direction. Conley with a quick-thinking touch pass, then Bogey smartly waits for traffic to pass before zinging a daring skip pass that leads O’Neale to his spot, then O’Neale dumps it down to the guy who started it all, who all the while has been sprinting from rim to rim.

Beautiful.

That’s another week here at SC7 headquarters.