Salt City Seven: Final Week Primer, Lotto Times Two, THT Heater & More

April 3rd, 2023 | by Dan Clayton

Talen Horton-Tucker is on a role for the Jazz as the season winds down. (Michael Dwyer via stlrib.com)

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

With four games left in the Utah Jazz’s season, it all comes down to this:

With a week to go, the Jazz have 10 teams within a 3-game margin.

Normally we save this chart for our “Future Focus” section. But this particular week, the biggest story is precisely this sprint/stumble/whatever to the finish line. The Jazz are sliding away from the playoffs after a 1-6 stretch, so as they enter their final week, we’ll be referring to this chart quite a bit to see what’s still in play in terms of both picks and postseason fun.

Playoffs: The Jazz no longer have any mathematical shot at a top-6 seed. The highest win total they can still reach is 40, and there are six teams in the conference with 41 or more. That means their only remaining path to the playoffs is via the play-in…

Play-in: Utah is only barely hanging onto a chance at a 7th or 8th seed, pre-play-in. Any loss (or a win by each of the Pels and Lakers) dooms them to a 9th-or-lower finish. And to make the play-in at all, they’ll have to leap over at least two of Minnesota, OKC and Dallas. All three of those teams have already clinched the tiebreaker over Utah. Their “tragic number” to be eliminated from playoff contention is two. 

Which is why most of the Jazz world has been been far more focused on…

Lottery odds: Utah’s 1-6 skid has gotten them back to within three games of Portland and even surging Orlando. “Catching” Portland, while mathematically possible, is a bit of a pipe dream. Even if Utah is stuck on 36 wins, it’s unlikely Portland finds three more wins on their schedule to split draft chances with Utah. Three of the Blazers’ remaining games are against above-average teams who still have things to fight for, and they are playing a skeleton crew.

But could any of Washington, Orlando or Indiana find two more wins in the final week so that the Jazz get at least a share of the eighth best lottery odds? Maybe:

  • The Wizards’ home game against Houston is probably a win even if they don’t want it to be. The Bucks still have yet to sew up the No. 1 seed, but Atlanta and Miami are middling teams. Miami may also be firmly in the 7th spot by Friday evening, given their tiebreaker situation (already lost the tiebreaker with Brooklyn, already won with Atlanta), which might make the Heat a less hungry opponent in the Wiz’s penultimate game. So it’s possible Washington finds two wins. FiveThirtyEight gives them an 82% chance in the finale, and a coin toss (55%) at beating Miami.
  • Orlando’s road is tougher. They’re actually pretty competent, at 29-24 since a dismal start, but all of their remaining opponents are good teams, starting with two in a row against Cleveland. Even if the Nets and Heat have their playoff reality established before the weekend, those are road games. FiveThirtyEight has them as 40%-or-lower underdogs in all four games.
  • Indiana has been eliminated from playoff contention, but the rulebook says that someone has to win when the Pacers host the Pistons on Friday (78% odds for Indy, per 538). But to get to 36 wins, Indy would also need to split their remaining games against New York, the league’s eight best team by record. The Knicks are close to being locked into the fifth seed, but Tom Thibodeau isn’t usually someone who takes his foot off the gas. The Pacers have a 36% and 20% chance in those two games per 538, but keep an eye on Julius Randle’s ankle.

Of course, the Mavs are just a game ahead of the Jazz. The Athletic is reporting that Dallas may shut down its stars in an attempt to keep its pick (via top-10 protection), but unless Utah wins again, that shouldn’t matter. If Utah does win a game and needs a Dallas victory to stay all alone in ninth, Sunday’s home game against the Spurs is the best shot. Dallas is favored in all three remaining games (all at home), but that may change if their main guys get ruled out. (Utah could also still mathematically catch NOP, but it would take some doing, and that doesn’t appear to be their focus.)

For better or worse, this is where the season sits for Utah. Right now, the Jazz hold a 20.3% chance at getting into the top 4 draft spots. Falling into a tie with just one of those teams above them would upgrade that chance to 23.2%, whereas a Dallas-Utah tie at 9/10 would drop it to 17.1%.

That matters. Nobody particularly enjoys watching the Jazz close 1-10 (which they’d have to do to hold at 36 wins), but that’s why we’ve been saying all along that this season’s enjoyment should be tied to things other than wins.

If it is an 0-4 week for Utah, there is some silver lining. If their young guys propel them to an unexpected win somewhere along the way, that likely means that someone tapped into something interesting, which is also not the end of the world.

Four more. Let’s see how they go.

Projecting the Jazz’s place in the bigger picture

While we’re at it, let’s talk about that Wolves pick that the Jazz own as a result of last summer’s Rudy Gobert-centered swap.

February’s Jazz-Wolves-Lakers trade, it turns out, really helped Los Angeles in a way that could benefit this pick. The Lakers were 13th in the West at the time of the trade. Now, they’re within a half game of the fifth seed. They’re 15-7 since the traded players cleared their physicals, and they’re 6-1 in games with LeBron James and Anthony Davis both healthy since the trade.

Importantly for Utah, the trade gave them the needed zip to leapfrog the Wolves, who now may have to win twice just to keep that pick they owe the Jazz out of the lottery.

Assuming the Lakers beat the Jazz twice, Minny would need everything else to break their way to pass L.A. via the tiebreaker. That means they’d have to finish 3-0 (something 538 currently gives them a 20% chance at doing) AND still get help from the Suns and Clippers to beat L.A. That’s why B-Ref gives them just a 17% chance at getting to No. 7 or higher.

If they catch New Orleans they can at least start the play-in from the eighth spot, but that tiebreaker is still pending. If the Pelicans beat the Wolves in the season finale, then nothing else matters and Minnesota can’t pass them. It might be decided before then, but even if Minny wins two and the Pels lose all three before that matchup, Sunday’s game in Minneapolis could well become a play-in to the play-in.

All this is a long way of saying that Minnesota is almost certainly going to have to win a road play-in game just to earn a spot in the playoffs. Utah could quite feasibly find itself with a second lottery pick, thanks in part to that midseason trade that made the Lakers better.

FiveThirtyEight currently gives Minnesota a 49% chance of making the playoffs. B-Ref says 43%, BPI says 36%. 

Key stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week

299

When Luka Samanic checked in on Wednesday, he became the 299th player in Utah Jazz history to take to the hardwood, the intrepid Ken Clayton reported. Ken and I have wondered all season if the Jazz would make it to 300 in the Utah era, but unless they sign someone with the season winding down, this might be one milestone that has to wait until 2023-24.

348

Credit the NBA University account for this one: with De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk and Josh Hart all in key roles on teams headed for the playoffs, Lauri Markkanen now figures to rank second among active players for regular season appearances (348) without having played in the playoffs. Buddy Hield (545) is first and his Pacers were officially eliminated from playoff consideration on Sunday. After that, the Fox-Monk-Hart trio should all see playoff action later this month, leaving Markkanen second unless the Jazz prevail in the play-in.

101

Talen Horton-Tucker is on something of a late-season heater. He had 101 points in the last three games combined or 33.7 per outing. As you might imagine, we’ll talk plenty about THT in the game ball/strong-in-defeat section.

51.5%

It appears that Walker Kessler’s season may be ended prematurely by a concussion, which makes this a good time to remind you that he will finish his rookie year having already established himself as one of the league’s top paint protectors. His 173 total blocks and 2.3 per-game average with both remain top-5 figures in the NBA, and he has the third best defensive FG% at the rim of any player to challenge at least 350 rim attempts. He will also likely end the season still atop the leaderboard for field goal percentage and eFG%. Just a stellar season from the 22nd pick in the 2022 draft.

43.3%

At this point, Kris Dunn’s perimeter shooting as a Jazzman is just weird. He’s shooting 43.3% percent (albeit on just 30 attempts) after being a sub-30% shooter over his first six seasons. Meanwhile, Kelly Olynyk is shooting just 28% from outside since the All-Star break and made just one of ten attempts this past week.

Looking at the Xs and Os behind a successful play.

Samanic saw his first Jazz action this week, including with a dunk on this nifty little set piece after a timeout in Boston.

The Jazz run this kind of setup a lot: a sideline DHO (dribble handoff) on one side of the court, with a simultaneous flare screen towards the opposite sideline. It has gotten guys like Markkanen, Ochai Agbaji and Jordan Clarkson a lot of good looks at angle threes.

That’s why Samanic’s defender, Grant Williams, has to honor it. He leans out to his left in case he and Jaylen Brown have to switch that flare screen, and that gives Samanic the opportunity to slip it and get behind his defender. On these types of plays the rely on two separate actions, I love paying attention to the timing on the play: how do guys know how to synch up? You can see here that Dunn and Samanic move into their screening action the instant the DHO is complete. That’s their cue. Any sooner and the lane won’t be as open for the Samanic cut. Any later and the angle for the pass might be gone.

In all honestly, Williams should probably not be as concerned about Dunn here, and Blake Griffin gets caught in no-man’s-land where he’s neither helping in the lane nor staying glued to Damian Jones. But the whole point of plays like this with multiple actions unfolding simultaneously is that it forces defenders to process a lot of things at once and that increases the likelihood that they make a bad decision. If Griffin comes in all the way, Jones is open for either a three or a lob. If Williams stays under Samanic, Dunn can catch the pass with his defender trailing and decide whether to drive, shoot it, or flow right into a second DHO with Johnny Juzang. 

In other words, there are a lot of ways this can end badly for Boston on this play. It just happened to unfold in the worst way of all: with a sure two points.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz outing

The Jazz added one imaginary game ball to their collection, and this time around it was fairly obvious who should get it.

Jazz 128, Spurs 117: Talen Horton-Tucker. There were portions of the game during which THT was basically unconscious. He finished with 41, and the Spurs announcers sounded outright confused at times during his 27-point first half. You could argue that Kessler impacted the game more (+20), or that Dunn was better in the pull-away fourth quarter run (17 overall), or that Juzang’s 10 were more unique to this one… but all of that would be overthinking it. Dude had 41.

Strong in defeat:

  • Jazz 103, Suns 117: Walker Kessler. Markkanen scored more, but clearly struggled with the Suns bumping him off his spots all night. Meanwhile, Kessler blocked a ridiculous seven shots (his fourth time doing that, the most in the NBA in seven years and the most for a rookie since Tim Duncan) and notched a +7, best among Jazzmen with at least 10 minutes. THT’s 16-8-8 line made him a candidate, and Olynyk wasn’t far off with 10-7-7.
  • Jazz 114, Celtics 122: Talen Horton-Tucker. This one just about had to be THT again (28-7-8), although Kessler’s 20-and-10 night with three blocks made this interesting. The other three starters all struggled with a point per shot (or less) and nobody off the bench except Dunn (who just keeps doing his thing with 16) did enough to challenge THT for team-best honors.
  • Jazz 110, Nets 111: Talen Horton-Tucker. Another one where it would be hard to deny THT. Truth be told, this viewer didn’t love some of THT’s insistence on iso creation early on, and I felt like that’s part of why the Jazz were in a hole to begin with. But that furious comeback at the end had the guard’s fingerprints all over it. The Jazz trailed 101-81 with half a period left, and THT started the run by assisting a Dunn three, then scored 15 points in the final 3:37 (and a game-high 32 for the night). Afterward, Nets star Mikal Bridges said he “didn’t want THT or Lauri taking that last shot,” which is a pretty good indication that the 22-year-old had it going.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action

The Jazz get the night off (along with the rest of the NBA) to watch the NCAA title game, then finish their season with a 4-games-in-6-nights stretch.

Tuesday 4/4, Jazz vs. Lakers: LeBron James and Anthony Davis have played in just seven games together since the Lakers remade their roster by dealing with the Jazz in early February — but they’re 6-1 in those games with a +19.2 net rating. Turns out having a comprehensible supporting cast around the two superstars has been pretty meaningful. The Lakers went from 13th in the West to now having a shot at climbing into 5th or 6th in their final week. They’ve won six of their last seven, and their last four games include two against the banged-up Jazz, plus a game against each of the teams they’re trying to catch to climb past the play-in: Clippers on Wednesday, Suns on Friday.

Thursday 4/6, Jazz vs. Thunder: OKC is 2-1 against the Jazz this year: two double-digit wins, and a 1-point overtime loss coming out of the All-Star break. But they’ve lost five of seven since leveling off at 36-36. That would have put their postseason hopes more in jeopardy, except that Dallas outstunk them with a 1-7 stretch. The Mavs’ last three are all at home (Kings, Bulls and the tanktastic Spurs), meaning that the Thunder really need to finish at least 2-1 to hold them off and make the play-in. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been sitting on and off, but he had 39 in a close loss in Indy on Friday, and another 39 against Phoenix on Sunday.

Saturday 4/8, Jazz vs. Nuggets: Weirdly, the Jazz’s easiest game of the week might be against the most formidable opponent, because while the Lakers and Thunder still have plenty to fight for, Denver should have the No. 1 seed wrapped up by Saturday. (Just one win or Memphis loss should do it.) That’s why Denver has been taking its foot off the gas recently; MVP candidate Nikola Jokic has taken the last three games off to rest a sore calf. The Nuggets took the last two meetings after being stunned in the season opener by a very balanced Jazz attack.

Sunday 4/9, Jazz @ Lakers: More on the Lake Show: they’re 15-7 since their new guys — including erstwhile Jazzmen Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt cleared the trade process and joined the Purple and Gold. Both guys are doing roughly what they did for the Jazz. Vando is averaging 8-7-2 in Hollywood (compared to 8-8-3 in a half season with the Jazz) on poor outside shooting, but has caught the Angelinos’ eyes with some big defensive moments. Sound familiar? Beasley’s shot diet looks almost exactly the same, but he takes a couple shots less per game as a Laker, and has hit a weirdly low percentage on his first dozen free throws. That has resulted in his scoring average dropping from 13.6 in Utah to 11.0. Former Lakers Juan Toscano-Anderson and Damian Jones are averaging 3.0 and 3.5 points for Utah, respectively.

Random stuff from the Jazz community

Another Jazz figure is headed for the Hall of Fame:

We’ll do one more of these next week to wrap up the regular season and look ahead to, um, whatever is next.

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