Salt City Seven: The D is Returning, Sticking With Conley & More

Gobert is challenging everything lately. (Alex Goodlett)

Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

The Jazz capped off their 3-1 week with their best defensive performance of the young season. They held San Antonio to 98.8 points per 100 non-garbage time possessions, per Cleaning the Glass, the first time this season they’ve held an opponent under a point per possession.

Quietly, though, the Jazz’s defense has been pretty sound all season — at least when they succeed at forcing a team to play against their schemes. On halfcourt possessions this season, Jazz opponents are managing just 89.7 points per 100 plays. That’s sixth in the league and second in the Western Conference. They’re still allowing too many easy transition buckets (third worst at 1.37 points per transition possession, CTG says), but their halfcourt defense has been good enough to carry them to a ninth overall ranking in non-garbage time defense.

Rudy Gobert has simply been dominant as the anchor to a defensive team that is returning to its core identity. Gobert has been deterring and denying at peak Stifle Tower levels. One of the many things the NBA’s tracking cameras capture is who is the primary defender/contester at the end of an offensive possession. On the 129 shots Gobert has challenged, opponents are shooting just 41.9% from the field and 35.3% from three. On the 424 shots where any other Jazz player was the primary challenger, opponents are making 47.4% of them, including 42.4% on threes.

“We have to keep a defensive mindset,” Gobert told The Athletic after Sunday’s win. “That’s a big key. If we can do that, the offense becomes easy.”

He’s right: the Jazz are forcing a lot of misses and turnovers, and those defensive stops are turning into easy points. Nearly 32% of Utah’s live defensive rebounds are turning into fast break plays, along with 44% of their live steals. When they cash in on those, they are rounding to 1.4 points per transition play, the second best figure in the league.

That’s been huge as Utah’s own halfcourt execution has struggled. They’re currently 18th in halfcourt points/play, but that ranking should creep upward as Donovan Mitchell and Bojan Bogdanovic continue to work their way out of early-season funks. Despite their ho-hum performance in the halfcourt offense, those transition opportunities have buoyed up their overall offense to ninth in the league.

That means they’re ninth in both overall offense and overall defense, with room for improvement in both. Only Milwaukee (3rd/10th), LAL (5th/6th), Phoenix (7th/3rd)¹ and Utah can claim top-10 status on both ends of the court, usually a hallmark of contending teams. While it’s still extremely early, that’s encouraging. West foes like LAC, Denver and Portland all have top-6 offenses but can’t guard anybody (26th, 28th and 29th, respectively). Dallas (14th/13th) is looking fairly average on both ends, while Houston’s (11th/24th) lack of lineup continuity makes them harder to analyze.

Add it all up and the Jazz have a top-3 efficiency differential in the conference, and that’s with their top two scorers from a year ago still emerging from their early slumps.

TL;DR: The Jazz’s halfcourt defense has helped them to a ninth overall defensive rating (garbage time excluded), and has also created transition opportunities that have led them to the ninth best offense even while Mitchell and Bogdanovic’s struggles have bogged them down in the halfcourt.

In their own words.

“He stuck with me, too. That’s what we do: we stick together.”

That’s the start of Jazz coach Quin Sndyer’s quote in response to how he “stuck with” Mike Conley Jr. after the guard’s up-and-down performance in year one as the Jazz floor general. He then continued on to give a great follow-up that put Conley’s 2019-20 performance in context with empathy and understanding. This comes via David Locke’s latest podcast.

“The amount of change that took place in (Conley’s) life: being in Memphis for his entire adult life after one year at Ohio State, and the different combinations that he played with — I think he played for seven different coaches while in Memphis,” Snyder continued. “(Then) moving to a new city, playing with Bojan and Donovan and other guys that are capable scorers, Joe (Ingles) who’s a capable ball handler, playmaker. So part of it was him getting comfortable not deferring in anything. It’s hard to do that when you’re a little banged up to start the season, and then the season stops.

“So I just think this (recent strong play) is the natural progression of who he is. And I’ll stick by him through whatever.”

That kind of quote is why guys will run through walls for Quin Snyder. That’s why Gobert’s written acknowledgement upon signing his extension referenced exactly two other humans: his mom and his only NBA coach. Snyder’s core tenet as a people manager is to believe in his guys. He’s Ted Lasso without the Magnum P.I. mustache or the drawl. He also demands a lot from people, so it wouldn’t be quite accurate to call him a “player’s coach” in the purest and most pejorative sense of the term. But he stands by his guys and wants them to succeed. And they sense that.

His reward for believing in Conley: oh, just 20 points, four boards and five assists per outing over the Jazz’s first six games, with 48-46-84 shooting splits. Conley has sported a +12.3 Net Rating so far this season. The “not deferring” part of Snyder’s statement is really important, but it’s not like Conley’s usage is wildly different from last season; he’s just picking his spots of when to be aggressive. More than 70% of his shots so far have come when the nearest defender was at least four feet away, so he’s really not forcing anything. He’s making smart reads when he has the basketball in his hands, and shooting without hesitation when he’s the open man.

He’s just playing sound, smart, surgical basketball. No wonder Snyder stuck with him.

Stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week.

+9%, +3.1%

A lot has been made of Jordan Clarkson cleaning up his shot chart since he got to Utah just over a year ago. And that’s deserved: he’s reduced the amount of midrangey stuff in his shot diet, and hasn’t taken a long two (outside 15 feet) yet this season. But he also deserves credit for just getting better at his threes and rim attempts. A career 58.9% rim finisher before arriving in Utah, he’s at 67.9% since the December 2019 trade. A career 34.4% shooter from deep pre-Jazz, he’s at 37.5% since. Those are statisfically important improvements, especially at the rim, where Clarkson appears to have made a change to how he drives and finishes so he can stay vertical and finish stronger.

18

That’s how many consecutive left-corner threes the Jazz missed before finally making one in garbage time against Phoenix and then another one against LAC. They were 0-for-2 from that zone in Sunday’s win, bringing them to 3-for-27 (11%). on the season. For reference, they made 39.3% of their left corner threes last season. This is bordering on ineffable how this shot has completely evaporated from their arsenal. It’s also likely good news: the Jazz are ninth in overall offense despite the fact that this staple of their halfcourt offense has been completely nonfunctional through six games.

8.3%

Any stats we share at this point of the year come with the obligatory and responsible caveat of “small sample size.” That’s especially true of lineup data; shared minutes of any given fivesome are going to be so small at this point that they can change in a hurry. That said, it’s worth noting that, with the abbreviated season, the Jazz have now played 8.3% of their schedule. That’s… not nothing.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

Jazz 110, Thunder 109: Mike Conley. Bogdanovic went off with a 14-point third quarter after opening 2-for-9, and Mitchell took over late with the Jazz’s final 12 points after shooting 2-for-10 in the first half. But this one came down to Gobert and Conley, who were dominant throughout. Conley won the popular vote and was likely a better narrative pick after a near triple double (20-10-9) and a brilliant floor game. Gobert, though, was likely the game’s true MVP, holding Thunder players to 36.7% on the 30 (!!) shots he contested, including the potential game-winner. It’s a painfully tough call between those two, but ultimately I’ll abide by the democratic process and let Mike have it.  

Jazz 106, Clippers 100: Mike Conley. A bit more straightforward here after Conley poured his his highest point total (33) in 53 games as a Jazzman. plus seven helpers. But a big nod to Derrick Favors here: this is exactly why the Jazz used their biggest offseason asset to reacquire the old friend. Gobert spent much of the night in foul trouble, and with last year’s roster that would have been a death sentence against a team as good as LAC. But Favors’ presence allowed the Jazz to keep the defense the same while Gobert sat, and he gave them a 14-and-11 line and a +6. Bogey² and Royce O’Neale also did great work on defense even though their shots weren’t falling, and Ingles was really good (11-8-7).

Jazz 130, Spurs 109: Bojan Bogdanovic. This could be Gobert again. It could almost always be Gobert, but 16 rebounds and six blocks in 27 minutes is just bonkers. That said, Bogey finally had his breakout game, pouring in 28 points on just 13 shots, and that’s pretty notable for the long run. O’Neale had his most complete game of the season, with 11 points, 11 boards, five assists and great defense. Plus Clarkson was on again, and Mitchell looked signifcantly more under control on his way to 22 points and nine assists.

Strong in Defeat:

In addition to doling out a fake game ball after wins to honor that game’s MVP or a memorable performer, we’re introducing a new feature in this section, giving props to the guy who looked best in a loss.

• Jazz 95, Suns 106: Rudy Gobert. Gobert had a solid case for each of the three game balls above, but in each case got edged out by a guy whose storyline and stats were a little more eye-catching. But he was also Utah’s best player by far in the disappointing home loss to Phoenix: 18 points (on nine shots) and 14 rebounds.

Keeping track of the Jazz’s place in the wild, wild West.

Just time for a quick look at Utah’s Western Conference ranking in some macro indicators so far this season:

Some early season indicators.

Based on all that, you can see some tiers taking shape. The Lakers are in a tier of their own as runaway WC favorites, while the Clippers, Suns and Jazz are the most likely homecourt teams based on what we’ve seen so far. Denver, Dallas and New Orleans are looking like playoff locks, and after that it gets murkier³.

This will all change about 1,000 times (almost not an exaggeration) between now and next May.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action.

The Jazz started a monster 7-game road trip with their visit to San Antonio on Sunday, and it continues on with four games in the east this week.

Tuesday 1/5, Jazz @ Nets: The Nets are 1-4 since Christmas, and Kevin Durant will miss this game due to the league’s protocols around contact tracing & COVID safety. That’s a bummer, because Durant had been looking really good after a season lost to an Achilles tear. Even if he came back at 80% of peak-level KD, the dude is still comfortably an All-Star, and at 90% the Nets would be poised to make serious noise. Thing is, after six games, I think we’re seeing pretty dang close to 100% of pre-injury Durant. The skill and smarts are all still there, but so is the explosion and timing. His 28-7-5 averages (and 51-46-89 shooting splits) are all at or above career levels, and he’s having his best season yet in both Net Rating and True Shooting. It would have been a fun test to see how Utah dealt with him. Utah will still have to scheme for Kyrie Irving and his 27-5-6 production.

Wednesday 1/6, Jazz @ Knicks: New York looks oddly capable in the early going, especially after a 3-1 week that included wins over the Bucks and Pacers. In a fittingly Knicksesque paradox, they’ve been led over that stretch by Julius Randle’s 21.8 point per game and R.J. Barrett’s 17.8, but they’ve also been getting creamed with those two on the court. (Randle is -8.3 per game over the last four, Barrett is -6.3, the two worst marks on the team.) At any rate, most forecasting systems still see their recent success as a mirage: they are still projected as a bottom-6 finisher.

Friday 1/8, Jazz @ Bucks: Milwaukee has been on a roller-coaster ride this season: their three wins have been by an average of 38.7 points, but they also got blown out by the Heat and Knicks. This will definitely be a test for Utah’s defense, as the Bucks have a ridiculous 10 players who are shooting 40% or better from 3-point territory on at least one attempt per game. (One of those is Utah State product Sam Merrill, a deep reserve who is seeing extra action since Milwaukee has been involved in a number of blowouts so far.)

Sunday 1/10, Jazz @ Pistons: The third-worst defense by opponent eFG%, Detroit is projected to have a long, tough season. Age and injuries have slowed Blake Griffin a ton, and Jazz legend Derrick Rose suddenly can’t make shots. Former Utah Ute Delon Wright is giving them good minutes, and Jerami Grant has been featured a ton more than he ever was in Denver or OKC. But this 1-5 team has some growing pains ahead.

Random stuff from the Jazz community.

There is no beef. If people wanna keep speaking negatively about me or keep discrediting what i do it’s on them and all that does is show who they are. I will always be happy for a brother beating the odds. And i’m gonna keep beating the odds. https://t.co/l241ZQ2Qk4

— Rudy Gobert (@rudygobert27) January 4, 2021

Very mature answer here from Gobert after NBA legend Shaquille O’Neal for some weird reason decided to go after the Jazz big man.

Here’s the thing: peak Shaq was really good. Scary good. Dominant. I remember this feeling of exasperation in the early 2000s, like nobody was going to be able to stop this guy except for maybe his own conditioning and motor⁴. Big, strong dudes would just bounce off the 15-time All-Star and 3-time Finals MVP. He was damn close to unstoppable, which is why just about any advanced metric you look at shows him as a top-10 player for over a decade. He has 14 All-NBA selections and four rings.

He also won his titles by playing against starting center Rik Smits, Todd MacCulloch, Erick Dampier and Dikembe Mutombo in the Finals. So maybe it’s OK to admit that today’s game requires different things from big men than it did in Shaq’s era because, with all due respect, at least a couple of those guys probably aren’t getting rotation minutes if they step out of the time machine and into an NBA practice facility today. (Deke was legitimately great, but he was also days away from his 35th birthday during the 2001 Finals.)

I don’t know how Gobert would have fared in the post-dominated era Shaq thrived in, when big men ran from low blocks to low blocks and staged greco-roman wrestling matches for post position. It kind of doesn’t matter.

I also don’t know if Shaq would make it to halftime without needing an oxygen tent if he played in a league where 30 teams are running some version of an offense built around spread pick-and-roll. And again, it kind of doesn’t matter. Because those time machine don’t exist. It’s possible to recognize Shaq’s greatness within the context of an era when Todd MacCulloch was a starting center in the Finals and also recognize Gobert’s greatness in an era that demands very different things of its centers.

At any rate, color me not-all-that-surprised that the same (air quotes) analyst who gave us the penetrating wisdom of “There’s no crying in basketball” is the same guy who can only process Gobert’s impact based on his career scoring average.

That’s a wrap on week two in Jazzland.