Salt City Seven: Markkanen’s All-Star Case, Sexton Surge, Halfway Stat Check

Is Markkanen headed for another All-Star appearance? (Rick Egan, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz. (Last week’s entry and this week’s entry both got posted late, so this edition covers the action from Tuesday through Tuesday.)

A quick look at the big, burning question of the moment in Jazzland

Basketball is fun again in Salt Lake City. The Utah Jazz own the league’s longest active winning streak (6 games) and are 15-4 over the past five weeks. And a huge reason for that success is 2023 NBA All-Star Lauri Markkanen, who undoubtedly would love to make another appearance in February’s midseason classic.

On the surface, the Finnish forward is having at least as good a season as he was at the point of the season last year when coaches were handed their ballots for the reserve spots on January 26.

Markkanen is performing at the same level he was when coaches voted him in as a 2023 All-Star reserve.

In a vacuum, it’s hard to argue that Markkanen was deserving last year and somehow not deserving this year. There are only five rate-qualifying players scoring with Markkanen’s levels of usage and efficiency¹ and all five of them will surely be All-Stars, if not first team all-league selections. And advanced stats still love him: he’s in the top 12 among Western Conference players in virtually every all-in metric: EPM, RPM, PER, Win Shares, WS/48, BPM, VORP, LEBRON, etc.

But these things are not decided in a vacuum; with finite spots, it’s not just about Markkanen’s candidacy but about a couple dozen other guys.

Last year’s West starters are all still healthy: LeBron James, Steph Curry, Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic and Zion Williamson. Additionally, superstars Kawhi Leonard and Devin Booker are back in action and East starters Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving switched conferences. Those nine aren’t all locks, but then there’s also Anthony Davis, who after a two-year break from All-Star status is absolutely playing like one of the West’s best 12 players. Will sub-.500 LAL get two in? Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is also a mortal lock. 

(On the flip side, Ja Morant won’t make it because of suspension and injuries, and the Grizzlies’ record might make it harder for Jaren Jackson Jr. to repeat. Damian Lillard went east.)

Anthony Edwards, an injury replacement last year, seems like a solid bet as he’s posting 26-5-5 and career-best efficiency for the West-leading Wolves. It wouldn’t be a shock if conference-leading Minnesota was rewarded with two All-Stars, meaning one of Karl Towns or Rudy Gobert joins Ant in Indiana. The Kings have cooled so they might not get both of Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox in, but they’ll get at least one. (If coaches give the honor to Fox this time after another mini-leap to 28 ppg and 39% outside shooting, that could help Markkanen land frontcourt votes.) Paul George is having roughly the same production as last year, his 8th season as an All-Star. Don’t forget 10-time All-Star James Harden, either, although it’s hard to imagine LAC getting three.

And that’s just the recent All-Stars. Will Jamal Murray (21-4-7, No. 3 team) finally get the nod? Brandon Ingram (21-5-5, No. 6) was an All-Star once, and Alperen Sengun is leading the surprising Rockets with 22-9-5. Anfernee Simons probably hasn’t played enough games (18) to get in despite averaging 23.0, and and Desmond Bane is up to 24.4 but will miss time. Oh, and then there’s the little matter of super rookies Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama. My guess is neither gets in this season, but Chet’s more likely as a key part of the current No. 2 seed.

Because of the wildcard spots, it’s not just a question of where Markkanen ranks among frontcourt players. But it might be a helpful starting point to visualize where he ranks among the forwards and centers mentioned so far.

Yeah, that’s tough. AD’s raw numbers don’t look like they’re miles ahead of Markkanen’s, but the reason people talk about him like a virtual lock is because he also happens to be one of the game’s best interior defenders. There’s not a really great case to make for the Finnisher above any of those five.

After that, there’s a pretty big group of legitimate candidates fighting for one to three frontcourt spots. One of the Wolves almost has to go (probably KAT), even though Markkanen has a solid case over either guy on individual merits. George is the second best player on a 4-seed, and could edge in front of the Finn on reputation and team success. Sabonis is superb and operates a bit more as the hub of his team’s offense; Houston is trying similar things with Sengun (although they have faded in recent weeks). Zion’s interesting because he’s gotten in every year he’s been healthy, but he’s posting career lows this year and the advanced stats don’t love his 2023-24 campaign so far.

It’s going to be close.

Coaches will get their ballots right after the starters are announced on January 25. So Markkanen has another week to bolster his argument.

Telling or interesting words from Jazz people

“(Collin Sexton) has always done everything that I’ve asked. He’s never complained. He has never come to my office and asked for more playing time. He has never asked for more shots. He’s never questioned what we’re doing. He just continues to work every day. He… lets me coach him very hard…

“That doesn’t mean Collin doesn’t drive me crazy at times. He does, and he knows that. And I’m sure that I drive him crazy too. But we recently had a conversation where I told him I’m not gonna stop being a pain in the ass. That’s my job, and I need to try to continue to help him get better, and… we’ve seen Collin get better from the beginning of this season to now.”

-Will Hardy on Sexton, as transcribed by Jackson Frank

Any talk of the Jazz’s 15-4 resurgence has to start with Markkanen, but also has to, has to, has to include Sexton.

The dynamic guard is averaging 22 points and 5 assists on literal 50-40-90 shooting since being inserted into the starting lineup. He has nearly three assists for every turnover over that span, 

“His energy’s infectious on both ends of the floor and we’re lucky to have him,” Hardy said.

Stats that tell the story of the week

Instead of pulling obscure or important stats from Utah’s games this past week, let’s check in on some of this writer’s pet metrics to see how they’re trending at the halfway mark.

45.1%

Walker Kessler remains an absolutely elite paint protector. He’s holding opponents to 45.1% at the rim, the lowest of any player who’s defended at least 70 rim attempts this season. Lower than Gobert, than Davis, than Ivica Zubac — than anybody. That’s an unreal percentage, better than any of Gobert’s three DPOY seasons.

44 + 102

A year after becoming the first NBA player ever to convert 100 dunks and 200 threes in the same season, Markkanen is currently sitting at 44 and 102, respectively. He’ll need to pick up the pace on dunks, but also remember he missed 10 games during the first half of the year.

37%

After some serious slumpage early on, Utah now how six rotation players making at least 37% of their threes for the season, led by Kelly Olynyk at 42.9%. Interestingly, their four best shooters are all frontcourt players, but Sexton and (surprisingly) Kris Dunn are both right around 37%. Rotation guards Ochai Agbaji (32.8%), Keyonte George (32.6%) and Jordan Clarkson (30.6%) are all still struggling from outside.

+4.1

Per Cleaning the Glass, the Jazz are the team playing with house money most often. They have won 4.1 more games than their expected win total based on their 17th-ranked offense and 22nd-ranked defense.

25.5

The Jazz remain the league’s best offensive rebounding team by OReb% (33.6%), and CTG has them at 25.5 points generated per every 100 reboundable misses, third in the NBA. 

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win

A lot of work in the Game Ball department this week, especially since we had to accommodate the extra game that slipped through before publishing.

Jazz 124, Nuggets 111: Lauri Markkanen. This week was a hard week, primarily because you could legitimately just hand it to Lauri every night and make easy work of this, so it’s always tough to figure out if you’re underthinking it or overthinking it. In this particular one, he was the best player: 26, 12, good defense (even as the second most frequent defender against Nikola Jokic) and +17 for the game. Clarkson was close with his 27 points, 9 assists and quick decision making. It really came down to those two, although John Collins’ early spurt allowed the Jazz to play from ahead, and Sexton and Dunn were both really good.

Jazz 145, Raptors 113: Kelly Olynyk. Blowouts are funny, because if this had been closer, Markkanen (22 & 9) or Clarkson (21 points) or Sexton (20) would have likely piled up enough stats to be an obvious choice. But because the game was well out of reach by the mid 3rd, we get to spread the love. Kessler allowed just 1/5 at the rim, and 2/9 shooting overall by players assigned to him at the time of the shot. But this one was a blowout because of the +14 second quarter, a period in which Olynyk was so good that Hardy couldn’t sit him. He played all 12 minutes, and was a key in punishing Toronto’s switch-happy defense. He finished with 11, 10 and 5. The other choice here would have been Clarkson, who had 10 of his 21 in that same second quarter blitz.

Jazz 132, Lakers 125: Lauri Markkanen. With apologies to Collins (19 & 13 on 7/9 shooting) and Sexton (27, 10/10 FTs) and even George (17-point second half including big late shots), this one was clearly Lauri’s. First of all, he was the primary defender on Davis, but also his energy level throughout was tremendous, and if he’s going to start routinely posting these 5-assist games, that’s kind of the last evolution for him to unlock superstar status. His line was 29-9-5, and was as involved in the defense and in setting the pace as anybody.

Jazz 132, Pacers 105: Collin Sexton. Again, I’d have no problem giving it to Markkanen, who scored (7) or assisted (5) everything during an opening 12-4 run, and the Jazz never trailed from there. He finished with 32 and 10 without playing a second in the fourth quarter, and he did it on just 15 shots and with another team-high +25. But the game was really decided between 3:07 in the 2nd and 8:20 in the third, when a 6-point lead became a 24-point lead during a 28-10 run. Sexton scored 10 of those and assisted another six, and it was never closer than 15 after that. Plus, it must have felt nice to have his first 30-point game in nearly two and a half years — since before the knee injury.

Breaking down the Xs and Os behind a Jazz score.

Let’s take a quick look at how the Jazz use an old-school technique called splitting the post to generate an uncomfortable switch and an easy layup for George.

Back in the days of post-heavy play, teams would often send two cutters across a posted-up big man in opposite directions to generate an advantage. The Jazz employ the same concept here, except that instead of splitting the post, they have George and Clarkson cross over the same high screener off the ball while an excellent passer (Olynyk) waits to make the read.

This is another way to punish teams for not guarding Kessler away from the paint. His defender is clearly in “contain” mode, but you can’t contain two guys heading in separate directions, so eventually he is forced to pick a guy to follow. He picks Key, and the rookie guard instantly recognizes he got the switch and zags to the perimeter to go to work. Look at how quickly he puts the defender behind him on the first dribble.

If the Pacers play this any differently, there other ways to punish it, which is why Olynyk is at the top ready to make the read.

And while we’re talking about George burning switches, here’s a bonus video of him just toasting Jordan Nwora later in the same game.

Nwora tries hard to cut George off on the outside as he picks up the switch, but the rookie realizes this means he’s just one little half-spin away from getting the inside lane to the middle. The big has to help, and that leaves Kessler free to either spot up for his every-other-game attempt at a corner three, or to slide in behind the defense for a lob.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of action

Here’s a couple of sentences about each of their games this week.

• POSTPONED: Jazz vs. Warriors. Postponing this game was absolutely the right thing to do. Imagine playing a basketball game less than 24 hours after witnessing that. Best guess for a reschedule: either next week while the Warriors are off between home games, or cramming in an extra game before both teams go to the All-Star break.
• Thursday 1/18: Jazz vs. Thunder. The Thunder are sort of the picture of when a rebuild goes extremely right extremely quickly. Like the Jazz, one of the pieces from their initial reset trade (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) hit in a major way, but then they nailed a #2 pick (Chet Holmgren) and a late lottery pick (Jalen Williams) and they’re already on the ascent: #2 in the West, and a playoff lock.
• Saturday, 1/20: Jazz @ Rockets. Houston was also looking like they might be ahead of schedule, but then reality/regression came for them and they’re 6-11 over the past month. On the whole, they’re good defensively, and in particular they defend the 3-point line well and close out possessions with a rebound (#4 in both opponent 3pt% and DReb%).

Random stuff from the Jazz community

Fun superhero origin story here, as part of a longer interview about his career and the surging Jazz:

How did Utah Jazz head coach Will Hardy get his start working in the NBA?

It started with helping a couple move into their home and ended with a phone call from Gregg Popovich.

He shared the story with @ryenarussillo.

Presented by @FDSportsbook. pic.twitter.com/hxh4zE1Eds

— The Ringer (@ringer) January 17, 2024

Halfway to the finish line!