SC7: Markkanen’s All-Star Chances & Next Step, Close Ls, Spida Memories & More

Markkanen’s leap as an efficient lead scorer has him entering All-Star conversations. (Francisco Kjolseth, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

Lauri Markkanen could very well be an NBA All-Star this season.

That would have been a crazy sentence to write when the season started, or when Markkanen landed in Utah via a summer trade. At that point, the Finnish forward was a career 15-ppg scorer and there was little to no indication he had an All-Star jump in his near future.

Since then, he has merely peeled off his four highest-scoring games as a pro, and he is now a top-20 scorer with the eighth best per-shot efficiency. He’s rebounding a bunch, defending better than anybody thought possible, and scoring at all three levels. Only five players have completed a season averaging 24 ppg on 66% or better true shooting¹. Markkanen and Anthony Davis are on pace to become the sixth and seventh this year.

LeBron James and Nikola Jokic are locks to earn frontcourt starting spots at next month’s All-Star game, which Utah will host. Unless something funky happens (like a K-pop star propelling a fringe All-Star to a starting spot), one of Davis/Zion Williamson will start along the other two, and whichever doesn’t earn a starting nod will likely get the first reserve spot. Both have missed time, but have played at all-league levels for stretches. That leaves between two and four spots for frontcourt reserves, who will be chosen by Western Conference coaches. 

Kawhi Leonard could make it on reputation/résumé even thought he has played just 18 games and spent some of those trying to recapture his superstar form. Teammate Paul George has played more games than either of AD/Zion and averages 24-6-5. The Clippers have underperformed enough that it might be hard to get both in. PG is likely the more deserving candidate this season, but Kawhi is a top-5 megastar at his peak, and coaches often reward that with legacy votes.

Other candidates include Domantas Sabonis (19-12-7 for the surprising Kings) and Aaron Gordon, who scores less than other candidates but is defensively versatile and has been the second most important player for No. 1 seeded Denver. Past frontcourt All-Star Brandon Ingram has a case to be mentioned, while Karl-Anthony Towns has only played 21 games, and the narrative around Rudy Gobert isn’t super positive right now. All-star alumni Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green probably don’t make it this year. Jerami Grant averages 22 and will get some chatter, but is probably a fringe candidate, and DeAndre Ayton and Jaren Jackson Jr. likely don’t have the counting stats (or profiles) to make it just yet.

As of today, I’d calculate that Markkanen’s odds are roughly as good as Sabonis’ and a smidge ahead of Gordon’s. All three are decidedly behind the top four (unless someone has to miss the game due to injury), so it probably comes down to a question of how do the Western Conference coaches handle the Clipper forwards. It will be close, but as of right now it looks like he’s in the inside lane.

Markkanen is already doing things that only alpha scorers have historically done. To evolve his game further, the next step will be to complement his efficiency with some smarter reads as defenses load up on him. He has surpassed two assists in a game just three times since Thanksgiving (after doing it nine times in the first month of the season). On a certain level, it’s not about raw assist numbers, especially for someone who is so often the endpoint of a given play design or the number one option out of many scripted or semi-scripted options. But there could certainly be more passing in certain situations.

Most scoring wings who possess the ball as much and as often as Lauri find themselves averaging 4, 5, 6 assists almost by accident. The list of players with Markkanen’s usage who average fewer than three assists per 100 possessions doesn’t exactly scream seasoned offensive generator. He can be prone to forcing uncomfortable attempts instead of making the simple play to an open teammate.

Markkanen shoots under duress.

Here he has Jarred Vanderbilt looking for a lob, Kelly Olynyk uncovered on the strong side, and two guards seemingly saying, “Hey buddy, I’m open.” Instead, he takes a twisting 8-foot hook shot among three defenders.

Other times, it’s less his fault and more a function of poor spacing limiting his passing options.

A Markkanen pull-up at the FT line in a crowd.

Yeesh, that’s rough. Because Walker Kessler is not involved in the action, his man can sag way down, and that means Ochai Agbaji’s defender doesn’t even have to come all the way in. Still, another dribble could have occupied the defense while Olynyk popped to the 3-point line, or drawn Agbaji’s guy further in. Or frankly, with that much time on the shot clock, even a reset to Jordan Clarkson is probably better than a pull-up with literally five defenders nearby. (He also doesn’t get the benefit of freezing the game like this to decide.)

Stuff like this is super nitpicky given the season Markkanen is having. To emerge as this kind of prolific scorer overnight, he has to be the kind of dude who wants to take shots and challenge defenses. But he can also refine some of these micro decisions by some degree and be the type of offensive star who lifts the guys he plays with because of his ability to bend defenses and then make the right basketball play.

The young man is potentially a month or so away from hosting an All-Star game. The fact that he’s on the cusp of that level of stardom while still having specific little things like this he can still unlock in his game to take him a level higher is actually really encouraging.

In the words of Jazz players/people

“Yeah it hurts. It hurts right now, and it should. Losing sucks. If losing doesn’t hurt, you shouldn’t be here.”

-Jazz coach Will Hardy, after the team lost five straight close ones 

Lost in all the discussion about how the 20-22 Jazz should approach the second half of their season is this fact: these guys really don’t like to lose.

That Hardy quote came after a stretch of five straight games the Jazz lost by five points or less. That’s the longest streak in franchise history of losses by 5 points or less since 1994. It’s also the longest such streak in the past 2 NBA seasons, and tied for the longest since 2014 (Portland, 7). It’s just brutal to lose that way over and over again.

“I expect for our team, our coaching staff to hurt when we lose these close games. But at the same time it’s on us the next day to look it in the face and look at the film, understand things we can do better.”

After those remarks, the Jazz finally cleansed their palate with a comfortable win in Houston. They then lost two more — by 8 and 5 points. All told, they’re 1-7 since Christmas, with a total net scoring margin of -11 in those games (-1.4 per game).

Hardy talked about wanting his team to maintain a consistency of message and tone in how they evaluate those games and move forward. But eventually, losing games by 1-3 possessions is going to get pretty tiresome to the fellas.

Key stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week

0-14

The Jazz have collective hit something of a protracted shooting funk, at 34.5% from the team level over the past month. That’s particularly problematic for the Jazz, though, because of how important that shot is to how they score. They have been in 14 games where they have shot at least two percentage points worse than their opponent from downtown, and they haven’t won any of them.

.188

All three Jazz games this week (1-2) met clutch criteria, meaning the Jazz are now 3-13 in their last 16 clutch contests. That’s a .188 winning percentage.

11-for-12

Hardy evidently woke up one morning and decided to play Ochai Agbaji. It’s not even super clear why: before Agbaji’s mostly invisible seven minutes against Sacramento, he had only played blowout minutes since December 10. But nonetheless, Hardy just casually announced that it was time to get the rookie some minutes, then gave him 18, 21 and 21 minutes in the next three games. Agbaji rewarded the gesture with 30 points in consecutive outings, making 11 of 12 shots. He followed that up with a relative clunker in Memphis (0 points, 0-for-2 shooting) but I’ll keep saying this about Agbaji: I’m way more concerned when he plays invisibly than when he makes mistakes.

44%

Well this is a depressing stat I found while reflecting on Mark Russell Pereira’s great midseason grade piece: Mike Conley’s 44% at the rim is officially the worst in the NBA for a player with at least 30 non-garbage time attempts. On the flip side, he’s still an elite table-setter, and his 62% on corner threes trails only Yuta Watanabe (68%) for the best mark in the league. But the rim woes are real for the savvy veteran.

4.4

The Jazz’s true shooting figure at home — 61.3% — would trail only Brooklyn’s full-season TS number. Their road TS% is 56.9%, 4.4 percentage points lower and equivalent to the 20th most efficient shooting team for the year. 

Projecting the Jazz’s place in the bigger picture

The Jazz have reached something of an equinox, both in terms of record but also in terms of figuring out which direction they’re likely headed. By many projection systems, they now have equally long-shot odds at the No. 1 overall pick (2%, per Tankathon) as they have at winning the West (2.4% B-Ref, 1.6% BPI, 1% 538).

But the Jazz are more than just “stuck” with no discernible shot at contending OR landing a generational prize. As we’ve talked about before, their sheer number of assets, their wealth of stackable contracts attached to good players, and the ahead-of-schedule growth of a couple of key young guys combine to give these Jazz a lot of options.

Still, it wouldn’t shock me to see something happen that could move the Jazz closer to one extreme or the other over the final 40 games.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz outing

One win in the last eight times out means it’s been quiet around the Game Ball Administrative Office, but at least there was *some* work for them to do this week.

Jazz 131, Team 114: Lauri Markkanen. Hardy actually said the game ball should go to Agbaji, which was… cute. Look, I’ve been to the Hall of Fame in Springfield and seen all of the actual damn game balls there, and not a single one of them said “nice 4.5-minute scoring burst.” The whole point of the game ball exercise is to memorialize performances like what Markkanen did. I was in the arena, and I can tell you firsthand that even Rockets fans were saying things like, “That LAW-REE guy is unstoppable right now,” and “Who’s gonna guard 23?” It was something to behold. Most of his 49 points (on 27 shots!) were pretty meaningful; the game wasn’t really out of reach until 2-3 minutes left.

Strong in Defeat:

• Jazz 115, Kings 117: Mike Conley. Markkanen scored 28 points on 15 shots and came within a couple tenths of a second of winning the game on a wild catch-and-shoot buzzer three. He was a little off from three but otherwise splendid. Conley’s night was also splendid: 18 points on 10 shots, plus another 18 points produced by his seven assists (and seven FT points he set up). After the Jazz went down seven with a little over three minutes left, Conley drove for a bucket, set up a Clarkson three, drove again, then set up Markkanen’s attempted three that resulted in tying FTs. Had to be one of those two, I went with the guy who was +11.
• Jazz 118, Bulls 126: Ochai Agbaji. OK, we’ll go Agbaji here, because his career-high 19 points (on 7-for-7 shooting) was a bit more relevant and spread across the game. He had a 9-point second quarter, eight in the early 4th, and then actually earned some clutch minutes when he came back and banked in another two. The other candidate (aside from Markkanen, with 28-4-3-3) was Vanderbilt’s 15-and-14 and Clarkson’s 8-assist night (to go with 18 points).
• Jazz 118, Grizzlies 123: Walker Kessler. Markkanen had a rare inefficient night, and the next instinct would have been to go with Olynyk, who had 19-8-5 on 7-of-9 shooting. But his -10 gave me some pause, as did the fact that Memphis’ dudes made 71% of their shots with KO guarding. So instead, I went with a deeper cut, but probably the right one: Kessler had five blocks before the first period was over (6 overall) and piled up a double-double (10 & 11) in under 24 minutes.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action

After completing a 4-in-6, the Jazz have just three games this coming week, and all at home:

Tuesday 1/10, Jazz vs. Cavs: Donovan Mitchell’s first trip back to SLC since the September trade comes at a time when Cleveland is unexpectedly teetering just a bit. They’re 4-4 since improving to a season-best 22-11, with the wins coming against the no-Devin Booker Suns and the inconsistent Bulls. They also had Mitchell and Darius Garland together in just four of those games, so any alarm bells might be premature here. CTG still has them as the league’s third best defense outside of garbage time, and Mitchell’s MVP-caliber season — he’s averaging 29 a game with career shooting numbers across the board — has propelled a top-10 offense. They take away corner threes (a Jazz staple) because their positional length everywhere means they have to send “oh shit” rotations far less often. This will be a test. Ricky Rubio has yet to play for the Cavs, but Raul Neto gets some minutes as a third point guard.

Friday 1/13, Jazz vs. Magic: Paolo Banchero plays with a force and focus that is ridiculously uncommon for rookies, but the Magic have mostly been pretty bad outside of a weird 8-1 blip they had right before Christmas. They’re 2-5 since then, so whatever holiday magic they had channeled appears to have abandoned them for now. They’re still (somewhat improbably) the #1 3-point defense by opponent percentage in non-garbage minutes. Franz Wagner is doing stuff. Covid protocols have robbed the world of the wonder that is Bol Bol for the last four games, but he should be back by Friday. He is having a weird and awesome season.

Saturday 1/14, Jazz vs. 76ers: The last time the Jazz faced Philly, Embiid went for 59 to carry a banged-up squad to victory. This time, they may not see the big fella at all. The MVP candidate has missed their last three games after averaging 36-10-4 in a 10-2 surge, and coach Doc Rivers says he’s unsure when Embiid will return to the lineup. In the meantime, Philly is getting something close to vintage James Harden back: he has averaged 11 assists per game and 39% from deep since returning from his own injury. Secondary playmaker Tyrese Maxey is coming back into form, and former Jazz gunner Georges Niang makes 42% of his threes.

Random stuff from the Jazz community

Five random awesome Spida memories, ranked by me:

I have an idea: let’s be the type of fan base that thanks a player for five years worth of awesome memories with hearty applause. Mitchell will visit Salt Lake City on Tuesday and deserves to hear appreciation from the fans whose lives he made more fun and whose fan experiences he made better — not boos because of whatever you think happened behind the scenes as the last Jazz core began to disintegrate.

Mitchell’s departure from Utah was complicated, but he never publicly made noise, hurt the Jazz’s trade leverage, or tossed backhanded comments about 3-hour practices or mountains over his shoulder on the way out.

The multiple competing versions of why the last iteration of the Jazz didn’t fulfill its lofty goals could fill volumes, but the reality is that a collapse that complete is never one person’s fault. It was a complex break-up. Nevertheless, the fan base stood up and cheered — rightfully! — when Rudy Gobert came through earlier this season, because we knew that even though he had some responsibility in both the basketball failings and the off-court fissures, he made the Jazz relevant and made being a fan more fun. We should do the same for Donovan.

Halfway home, ladies and gentlemen! Excited to live another 40 games with you all!