SC7: Rookie Progress, JC Extension, Markkanen Most Improved?

January 16th, 2023 | by Dan Clayton

Kessler is soaring to a solid first NBA season (Matt Slocum via sltrib.com)

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

When Joel Embiid hung 59 on the Jazz last November, Walker Kessler barely shared the court with the MVP candidate. Embiid and the Jazz rookie were only matched up for a period of under three minutes — at least partially as a result of how those minutes went for the youngster.

After Kessler checked in with 2:57 left in the first period, Embiid immediately got De’Anthony Melton a layup by handing off the ball and then running at a bewildered Kessler in pick-and-roll action. The next trip down, Embiid crossed center court last, caught a pass and went straight at his young foe, faking him out of his shoes for an easy layup. The next play, he slipped by Kessler in transition and then faked him into a shooting foul. Two trips later, he again attacked Kessler 1-on-1, this time on a pull-up shot at the nail as the Jazz center backpedaled.

After the first quarter ended, Kessler wouldn’t check Embiid again for the rest of the game. Every time Embiid went to check back in, a corresponding Jazz sub met him at the scorer’s table, and Kessler’s second-half stint was timed specifically for the only three minutes and eight seconds Embiid didn’t play. When #21 got back off the Philly bench, Kessler’s night was over.

That’s why it’s all the more impressive what Kessler accomplished on Saturday night against the visiting Sixers. He spent more than half the game lined up against the all-world big man, and instead of shrinking from the task after his brief November struggle, he nearly led the Jazz to victory. Matchup stats say that Embiid shot 6-for-13 from the field when guarded by Kessler this time around (3-for-5 against other defenders).

One of those misses was part of this sequence:

The Jazz were down several big bodies on Saturday: no Kelly Olynyk, no Lauri Markkanen, no Rudy Gay. Someone had to step up to try and slow a top-5 NBA player in Embiid, and Kessler played him solidly, a sign of real development when juxtaposed against what happened in the first meeting.

He was of course assisted in his defensive duties by a pretty slick game plan. Jazz coach Will Hardy’s strategy involved second defenders appearing in front of Embiid, but Utah brought the help from different spots and at different points in the play to keep the big fella guessing.

The fact that Hardy’s scheme called for help hardly detracts from what Kessler was able to do against the same guy who kind of ate his lunch two months earlier. There is a 40-pound difference between the two centers, after all, and there’s not a soul in the basketball world who can singlehandedly derail The Process. Sticking to a defensive game plan is its own skill, and Kessler’s ability to engage that help according to plan — in his 43rd pro game, mind you — is plenty impressive.

Often Kessler’s work before the pass (and subsequent help) arrived made Embiid do extra work, and by the end of the night Embiid was visibly gassed. The Auburn product denied, fronted, hounded and occasionally just swiped the ball altogether.

Of course, Kessler’s solid outing in an almost-win is more exciting because it’s part of a rising trendline of smart and mature performances. A game earlier, he had 13 and 9, and had blocked five shots before the first quarter buzzer rang (seven overall). He has the best defensive rating of any Jazzman with at least 600 minutes, and only potential All-Star Lauri Markkanen edges him in Net Rating (+5.0 to Kessler’s +4.8).

Kessler’s already looking like a winning basketball player, so the temptation is there to heap more on his plate. Not so fast, says Hardy. Developing young NBA players is already an inexact and puzzling science, and one of the hardest parts of it can be deciding where specifically to focus. It’s unrealistic for a player to be honing every single thing in the endless portfolio of basketball skills, especially during a season. For Hardy, that means getting the basics right first.

“We don’t want to do it all right now,” said Hardy before Kessler’s nice weekend back-to-back. “We don’t want to distract him almost with two or three new shooting things and take the focus away from those core tenets of his game.”

Hardy added that he sees a skillset there that leads him to believe Kessler can eventually “build out,” but wants him first to build a solid foundation, starting with the things he can do that lead to winning today.

“If this is baseball, you still want to make sure you have a fastball. Right now he’s really making sure he’s honing his fastball, which is protecting the rim and being a great screen setter and those things that he can do right now, every night to help us win. That’s really going to be the backbone of his game throughout his career.”

The same goes for fellow first-round rookie Ochai Agbaji, who has also had some of his best pro games in recent outings. Last week’s SC7 highlighted his 11- and 19-point performances, but even beyond knocking down open shots, he’s just looking more like an NBA player right now. During many of his previous court stints, he looked content to fly under the radar, and didn’t do pretty basic things like lift on the wing to create a passing option for the handler — perhaps because he didn’t want the ball. He has looked unwilling at times to have an impact on the game with 9.6% non-garbage time usage, the lowest of anybody other than Leandro Bolmaro. Even in some of his nice scoring nights, he did most of his damage out of the same spot on the court and didn’t really seem to be pushing on the limits of his comfort zone.

Now, he is. The thread linked in that last paragraph includes plenty of examples of him looking willing to cut, catch, attack and otherwise just be a willing participant.

“He’s moving in the right direction.” Hardy said of Agbaji. “Whether he makes the shot or misses the shot is almost unimportant. Obviously we like the makes more than misses, but it’s more about his technique and approach.” He mentioned that Agbaji has done a lot of work in individual drills and in his G League stints to get to where he is.

Did Agbaji backslide a little on Saturday and once again look tentative in spots? Sure, because progress isn’t always linear, just like how Utah’s other rookie, Simone Fontecchio, has mostly been pretty invisible in recent court time after some encouraging early stuff. That’s OK. Neither guy is getting a final grade on January 16 of his rookie season.

But it’s undeniably good news that the Jazz are seeing some developmental successes from especially the two first-round rookies. Utah has the right to control Kessler’s and Agbaji’s medium-term destinies because of contract nuances for first-round picks, which is why this writer has stated all along that they are as likely as almost anyone to still be Jazzmen on the other side of this rebuild.

That’s even more true now given Kessler’s consistent winning play and Agbaji’s recent progress.

In the words of Jazz players/people

“I’ve really had no communication in terms of extension from my side or my team that I know of. And if those talks are happening, sometime soon, I would love to be here in Utah, continue to play with my teammates further.”

-Jordan Clarkson, to Filipino media members 

Philippines outlet Spin portrayed this quote as though Clarkson “shot down” rumors that he had declined an extension. That’s not exactly how I read this. The reality is that, especially during the season, a player’s representatives handle most of this dialogue. There’s a real Clarkson clarifies that he hasn’t heard updates from “my side or my team,” which sounds to these ears like he’s conscious that some dialogue is likely occurring while he focuses on getting buckets.

To be honest, the math is tough here. The only way Clarkson can extend his contract prior to July 1 is if he declines his 2023-24 player option, and even then he can only start a new extension at up to 120% of this year’s salary: a hair over $16 million, followed by 8% raises. Based on his current play, there’s a very good chance he’ll get more than that if he instead becomes a free agent in July. Even if the wanted to throw a Brinks truck worth of cash at Clarkson, they can’t go higher than 4 years, $71.7 million per NBA extension rules.

Maybe what Clarkson is saying here is that HE hasn’t personally declined that maximum offer. It’s somewhat encouraging for Clarkson to say on the record that he hasn’t been involved with those negotiations and that he wants to stay, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he would agree to a figure his representatives have already turned down. That $16M range is basically the very low end for non-rookie scale starters in today’s NBA economy, and Clarkson is probably the second best player on a near-.500 team. He has every right to think he’s worth more than what the Jazz can currently offer. The Jazz also have every right to wonder how long the 30-year-old’s production will remain at this level, or how many teams will legitimately be in a position to give him, say, $20 million in free agency.

So for now, the dance continues.

Key stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week

5/25

The Jazz’s offense was actually sort of a tire-fire in the fourth quarter of their marquee win over the Cavaliers: they made just five of 25 shots and 16.7% of their threes in that frame. Turns out it didn’t matter because of 16 fourth-quarter free throws and Clarkson’s personal 9-point run. Another big key: their 13 second-chance points, part of a big 27-10 advantage in that category over the suddenly smaller Cavs (Jarrett Allen left in the 1st quarter).

1.34

Markkanen’s efficiency remains unreal at 1.34 points per shot attempt. Per CTG, only six other players have usage rates north of 20% and score at least 1.3 points per shot, and the list is a who’s who of All-Stars and MVP candidates: Nikola Jokic, Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Domantas Sabonis, Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson.

39.5%

Collin Sexton is up to 39.5% from three this season, the third highest mark on the team. What’s especially impressive is that he’s actually shooting way better — 48.4% — off the bounce. That bodes well for his future as an on-ball creator. Part of it is that he is being appropriately choosy about when to shoot: only five of his 86 3-point attempts have come while he was “tightly” or “very tightly” guarded, per NBA.com.

20.5%

Malik Beasley’s puzzling 3-point slump continues: he has converted just 20.5% of his attempted triples in the past five games, and 26.8% over the last 14.

Projecting the Jazz’s place in the bigger picture

File this under “things that make you go hmm”:

The Jazz are currently 12th worst, giving them a 7.1% chance at a top-4 pick. But a lot of the teams that are within range don’t have a lot of motivation to try to lose. Phoenix (10th) and Toronto (T-7th) are ostensibly trying to be good, and the Lakers (T-7th) and Bulls (9th) will likely be shipping their picks elsewhere due to prior trades, so there’s no reason for them to pack it in on this season.

The teams whose intentions are less clear are Washington (6th worst, 2.5 games behind the Jazz) and OKC (T-10th, percentage points behind the Jazz). The Thunder have won three straight and own the fourth best efficiency differential over the past two weeks. They have an All-NBA candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and already have a No. 2 overall pick set to join their roster of blossoming youngsters next year. They could easily decide that it’s OK to start the climb. The Wizards’ situation is less encouraging; they’re 8-18 since Thanksgiving weekend, and Bradley Beal is having hamstring problems. That said, their ownership reportedly wants them aiming for the playoffs, and FiveThirtyEight has them projected just a game out of the play-in, so maybe they’ll keep trying.

The Jazz will too, but there’s still a possibility that they’ll make some trades with the longer-term future in mind. It’s become clear since the injury woes started that their house of cards starts to wobble to some degree once you remove some key veterans, and there’s a possibility they’ll do just that — not to tank per se, but to maximize asset value.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz outing

Jazz 116, Cavs 114: Jordan Clarkson. With apologies to Lauri Markkanen (25 points, 16 boards, the game-sealing rebound and free throws), this wasn’t particularly close. Clarkson absolutely decided the game with his solo 9-0 run that starting with a 7-point play. His 3-plus-flagrant-plus-3-FTs possession brought the Jazz from down 5 with under a minute and a half to play to up 2. Then he added a floater to cap a 15-point fourth quarter and steal one back from his good friend Donovan Mitchell. Just unbelievable.

Jazz 112, Cavs 108: Walker Kessler. There were honestly so many heroes in this one that I sort of just told myself I’d abide the Twitter vote, so Kessler gets it. He has a solid case: 13, 9 and 7, including five blocks before the first quarter ended. In all, Magic players shot 11-of-26 with Kessler as the primary shot defender. It probably should have been Markkanen — 28 and 12, plus the game-sealing block — but on a night with a lot of heroes I’m fine occasionally giving it to the “story of the game” guy instead of the “MVP of the game” guy, especially since Lauri gets a lot of these. Clarkson was the other prime candidate (23 and 12 rebounds?!), Sexton was really important with Conley out, and Agbaji was a +/- superstar despite a meager stat line.

Strong in Defeat:

  • Jazz 116, Sixers 117: Jordan Clarkson. There was a very real temptation to be cute here and give it to Talen Horton-Tucker, whose 20-point night probably had a lot to do with why dinged-up Utah could punch above its weight against the Sixers. But Mark Russell Pereira set me straight in the postgame hangout when he pointed out that THT pretty much did THT stuff — but more of it, given the available minutes. Clarkson was the one who had a “holy crap” type of game, including a 17-point fourth. His 38-9-5 line means we’re probably overthinking this one, although Kessler was phenomenal (15-and-12, 7/7 shooting, solid team defense on an MVP candidate as described above).

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action

Just a 3-game week for the Jazz this week, who get to sleep in their beds for eight consecutive nights once they get home from a rare matinee in Minneapolis.

Monday 1/16, Jazz @ Timberwolves (DAY GAME!!): Don’t forget this is a rare 2pm MST start. It’s also the Jazz’s final trip into Rudy Gobert’s gym this season, although the former Jazz All-Star is questionable after hurting his groin on Saturday night. The Wolves have won six of their last seven, despite the fact that Karl-Anthony Towns is still rehabbing a strained calf. They own the 6th best defense over that span and are up to #10 for the season in garbage time-adjusted defense. They’re pretty terrible in virtually every transition defense metric, but if they can get teams into a halfcourt setting, they hold them to 94.8 points per play, a figure in the top quartile. (That will obviously be different if Gobert doesn’t play — their halfcourt D is 6.8 points worse per 100 when Gobert is off the floor, per Cleaning the Glass.)

Wednesday 1/18, Jazz vs. Clippers: LAC was starting to look like they were putting things together now that their main guys are finally back, and then they ran off six straight losses. They also play Tuesday night against Philly before traveling the wrong way across time zones for a back-to-back, so we’ll see which game they prioritize for Kawhi Leonard, who still hasn’t played both ends of a back-to-back yet this season. He is starting to look decidedly more Kawhi-esque, though: 29-8-4 in his last four games, on 51-47-97 shooting splits. Damn. Paul George has missed five straight but is listed day-to-day, so we’ll find out in the next 48 hours is the Jazz are going to have to deal with 24-ppg scorer. Luke Kennard, Marcus Morris and John Wall are all also currently injured. The Jazz are 2-1 against the Clips this season.

Friday 1/20, Jazz vs. Nets: Another banged-up team visits on Friday; the Nets were 18-2 in their previous 20 before Kevin Durant’s MRI showed an MCL sprain last week. They’ve lost two straight since then, and they’ll also be on a back-to-back as they roll into Utah (from Phoenix). KD is still another week away from the stated reevaluation date, so it seems unlikely that he’ll play. Former Jazzman Royce O’Neale is posting career highs this season in points, assists and 3-point percentage. 

Random stuff from the Jazz community

Markkanen getting some real love in the midseason media survey.

Markkanen’s jump this year has undoubtedly been the biggest revelation as it relates to the Jazz’s long-term vision. The Finnish forward’s coach gives him a lot of credit for approaching his game very technically and being willing to experiment.

“The fun part is that he never looks at me crazy when we try something new with him,” Hardy said as Markkanen prepared to face his former team last week. “He just kind of goes for it. He has a willingness to be put in different situations… At the end of the day, Lauri’s not a selfish guy. As good as he has played this year, he hasn’t come to me and asked for one thing. He just goes out and plays the game and wants to win.”

Hardy concluded: “The most exciting part is: I’m not sure we know what his ceiling is yet.”

That’s a wrap on another week!

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