Salt City Seven: Stretch Rooting Guide (UPDATED), Don Going Nuts, 3-Point Slump & More

A Jazz-Nuggets rematch? This week we look at which playoff opponents the Jazz might want to avoid. (Ashley Landis-Pool via espn.com)

Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

Note: We don’t do this often, but since a major injury happened just hours after this article was published that changed the landscape of the Western Conference playoff race, we felt it was worth updating this with some new insights. Here’s wishing Jamal Murray a speedy and full recovery. The NBA is better when you’re playing!

On each of the next 35 nights, somewhere between two and all eight of the West’s current playoff teams will lace up in an attempt to fortify (or impreove) their spot in the standings. By popular demand¹, we’re going to spend time today establishing the rooting guide for Jazz fans as they score-watch over these last last five weeks of the NBA season.

In order to determine what outcomes to root for, you first must establish what Utah’s ideal seeding situation would look like. So let’s rank the entire WC field in order of whom the Jazz would most like to avoid until later on in the playoffs, if possible.

Importantly, there are no easy paths for a team whose goal is to go all the way. Eventually you have to face great teams. In a conference with at least five real contenders plus two solid teams led by generational superstars, that is even more inevitable. The second round of the West playoffs will include four teams who could win it all.

Also, true contenders probably shouldn’t be in the mindset of dodging certain teams. If the Jazz are real, it’s probably in part because they’ve had a “bring it on” mentality about proving themselves against the best.

Still, seeding does matter. Last year’s Lakers managed to hoist a trophy without ever facing a single playoff opponent with a top-5 net rating *OR* win percentage, because of lucky draws and underdogs doing their dirty work for them. That’s not their fault, and it doesn’t make their championship banner hang lower than the others. It’s just how it shook out. So as Jazz fans are rooting for one team or another in the 129 remaining games involving at least one of the West’s top eight, what you’re really rooting for are outcomes that will pave a generally fortuitous path for Utah after May 16.

We’ll start with the teams Jazz fans should be the least eager to face.

Tier 1: The Contender Class

A series against any of these four would be something close to a toss-up. Ranking these four teams is a bit like deciding whether to swim through a piranha-infested pond or climb over a bed of nails. Either way, you might make it to the other side, but there will be blood.

• Lakers. The only WC team with two reigning All-NBA first teamers², they’ll be as feared a playoff foe as anybody — if LeBron James and Anthony Davis are fully healthy by May. We will have to see what effects an extended absence may have on the overall rhythm of a 36-year-old James, but even if it takes the two superstars a bit to calibrate, the Laker defense has held up pretty well even without them. Since LeBron’s injury, LAL still sports a top-5 defense, almost exactly even with the Jazz’s DRtg over that span.
• Clippers. The Clips’ defense is just OK this season, but their offensive rating will break Dallas’ 2019-20 record for best ORtg ever if it holds up for 17 more games. Simply put, these guys are really hard to stop when everybody is healthy. They’re 27-9 in games featuring both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, and they’re 14-5 when their preferred starting five is healthy. The Jazz know that any path to a championship likely goes through one of the two LA teams, but it might be advantageous for them to save that test until later rounds.
• Suns. Again, there are no easy opponents after Utah emerges from the first round. The Suns’ placement behind the LA teams says way more about them than about Phoenix, whose two scheme-busting star guards already have two wins against the Jazz. They’re disciplined defensively, and they’re extremely hard to guard at the other end, where everything the Jazz can try has one set of suboptimal consequences or another. They’re third because of Devin Booker’s clutch woes, their overall lack of playoff experience (outside of Chris Paul), and a consensus among projection systems that they are still fringe contenders at the moment. A Jazz-Suns series wouldn’t be a slam dunk for Utah, but the Jazz would be favored.

Tier 2: Solid Playoff Teams Led by Superstars

These teams have generational studs who would present Utah some tough game planning choices, but ultimately the Jazz would be solidly favored here.

Quick side note: Jamal Murray’s injury news is a gut punch for Denver and a tragedy for the NBA product. Before he went down in a heap on Monday night, the Nuggets were firmly in the tier above³ because of how they’d come together since acquiring Aaron Gordon: 7-1, with their new starting five sporting a bananas +33.9 net rating. It’s such a bummer that he’ll miss the playoffs (and likely a chunk of next season) after tearing his ACL, but that definitely moved Denver down a tier.

• Nuggets. Sure, a soft schedule patch had juiced those post-trade numbers some, but they were real, and they’re less real now. FiveThirtyEight still forecasts roughly the same regular season finish — they still have the likely MVP, after all — but has downgraded their title chances from 9% to 3%. That feels right, and it’s a bummer. The Jazz still won’t WANT to deal with Nikola Jokic for a series, but Denver is more schemable now. That drops them into this tier of opponents it won’t be fun to mess with, but where Utah would be expected to win.
• Mavs. Dallas wasn’t at full strength when the Jazz blew them out in consecutive games in late January, and a healthier version of the Mavs really bothered Utah last week. Over seven games, the Jazz would probably prevail against a team whose strength — halfcourt offense — is in an area the Jazz are particularly well-equipped to defuse. But it wouldn’t be fun dealing with Luka Doncic, a guy who will wind up on some MVP ballots this spring.
• Blazers: Nobody in their right mind is hoping to face Damian Lillard in a playoff series, but the Jazz have walloped the Blazers twice this season. Lengthy absences for CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic (who left Sunday’s game briefly before returning) may have kept Portland from congealing quite the way the primary contenders have. Also, for all we (rightly) rave about Lillard’s clutch abilities, he’s still only made it out of the second round once in his eight completed seasons.

(It’s unlikely the Jazz will face either of these teams, as they will both likely finish as underseeds in the other four first-round series and would be at least one upset away from coming face-to-face with the Jazz.)

Tier 3: The Play-In Hopefuls

If Utah is as good as advertised, they should be fine against whichever team wins its second play-in game to secure the eighth seed.

But you can still root for them to keep a combustible star away. Two-time MVP Stephen Curry and burgeoning superstar Zion Williamson are probably most capable of going supernova over a short span in a way that would make things uncomfortable for the Jazz. The Grizzlies’ young talent isn’t quite at that level yet. Nobody enjoys playing against the plucky, hectic style of Memphis, but the Jazz did just defeat them three times in six days. The Spurs are longshots to grab the eighth seed, but if they did it would mean that DeMar DeRozan (or somebody else) was playing out of his mind.

• Warriors 
• Pelicans
• Grizzlies
• Spurs 

Again, Utah wins any of those series, barring a collective crap-the-bed moment.

So who do you root for?

After Murray’s injury, it’s pretty clear which three teams are the most dangerous. And there is a plausible scenario where all three wind up trapped together in the other half of the WC bracket, so that Utah would only have to face one of LAC, LAC and Phoenix.

At this point, the Clippers and Suns are near locks to finish in the second and third seeds, in some order. Utah needs to worry about keeping Phoenix in the rear view mirror, but a huge disparity in schedule strength over the next month should help there. That’s the easy part.

If the Lakers fell out of fifth, they’d wind up in the same 2-3-6-7 bracket as the Clips and Suns. That would be a nice draw for the Jazz if they hold onto No. 1. But it would require one or both of Portland/Dallas to pass them.

The Blazers are only a game back in the loss column, but have a brutal schedule. The Mavs are three games back, have a relatively easy close, and face the LeBron-less Lakers twice next week. FiveThirtyEight has both teams finishing close enough that this could become interesting.

• Root for: LAC (to stay in the 2/3 spot), Denver (to stay in the 4/5 matchup), Portland/Dallas (to catch LAL)
• Root against: Phoenix (to stay behind the Jazz), LAL (to slide past fifth)

For now, don’t worry too much about the four bubble teams. That won’t be sorted out until the May 18-22 play-in tournament anyway. But since one of those four will fall short of the play-in slots, you might as well root to keep one of Steph or Zion away, if possible.

• Root for: SAS, Memphis
• Root against: GSW, NOP

Oh yeah, and root for the Jazz. That could help, too. 

Keeping track of the Jazz’s place in the wild, wild West.

Now that we’ve given you an idea what to root for, here’s what each of those teams has left:

The Jazz have the easiest remaining opponent slate and the most favorable home/road split of the current top eight.

Even after losing to Phoenix (and surrendering the tiebreaker) on Wednesday, the Jazz should be able to comfortably hang on to No. 1 based on their schedule.

All of the top four teams are playing great basketball right now.

Stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week.

31.0

Donovan Mitchell has scored 31.0 points per game over a 13-game span, making him the first Jazz player to do that since the Finals years. He’s simply hitting another level, and he’s doing it efficiently, too. His shooting splits slipped a little this week, but overall he’s still above 48-38-89 thresholds in the three main shooting categories. He’s the first Jazz player ever to average 31 on those shooting numbers over a 13-game stretch. He’s just making shots at a really high level right now. Since the All-Star break, he’s taking 6.7 pull-up threes per game, and making 39% of them. If this holds up… watch out, league.

6.09

Speaking of Jazz All-Stars who are dominating, Rudy Gobert leads the league in BBall-Index’s “LeBron” metric — overall, not just for defense. His 6.09 just outranks MVP frontrunner Jokic at 5.99. On the defensive side, Gobert’s D-LeBron is so high that, as site creator @Tim_NBA pointed out, the gap between him and second place Myles Turner is so wide that it’s the same gap separating Turner from #43 on the list. Gobert is also tied for second (with Leonard, behind Jokic) in 538’s RAPTOR WAR.

29.4%

The Jazz had three of their four worst 3-point shooting performances of the season this past week. The combined 29.4% they shot this past week was their worst shooting in a 4-game span all year. Jordan Clarkson shot 5-for-18 (27.8%) in his two games this week, while Mitchell and Bojan Bogdanovic each shot 20% over four games.

31.6%

No matter how you guard the multi-faceted Suns, you give something up. On Wednesday, it was rebounds. The Jazz applied more pressure on midrange wizards Paul and Devin Booker, but that brought big men away from the paint and allowed the Suns to capture a whopping 31.6% of their misses. Here’s what’s peculiar, though: in the dozen times this season that the Jazz have allowed an opponent an OReb% of 30 or greater, that was their only loss. 

+90.7

That was Utah’s third-quarter net rating as they pulled away from the Blazers on Thursday night. They held Portland — a top-6 offense — to a 76 ORtg in the quarter.

In their own words

“When somebody told me (about cracking the Jazz’s top-10 franchise scoring list), I took that moment and I took it in. Like, ‘Damn, I’m top 10 scoring for an organization.'”

-Derrick Favors, as relayed by Eric Walden

If that doesn’t give you the warm fuzzies as a Jazz fan, you might be dead inside.

By the end of his current 3-year deal, Favors will likely catch Deron Williams, who is just 313 points ahead of him. That would be a poetic feat, since Favors was the headliner in the package Utah got when they decided to trade DWill back in 2011. He might even catch Gordon Hayward (814 ahead), which would also be fitting since those two once shared the spotlight as Utah’s two best young players.

He also has Mitchell and Gobert charging up behind him, but it would be cool if he could catch Williams and Hayward to stay in the top 10. Favors is an important part of the fabric of the franchise, bridging multiple eras and representing a lot of what people enjoy about Jazz basketball.  

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

A 2-2 week gives us two game balls to dole out and two “strong in defeat” consolation prizes.

Jazz 128, Blazers 112: Donovan Mitchell. An assassin during this 37-4-5 performance. Mitchell scored 13 and was a +20 in the decisive third period, and actually played some of the game’s best defense to boot. (Portland players shot 2-for-8 when Mitchell was the closest defender.) Gobert had another ridiculous 18-and-20 double-double. But in this one it was actually the Mitchell-led hybrid units that did most of the damage.

Jazz 128, Kings 112: Joe Ingles. How can a guy get 42 and NOT be the easy game ball choice? The plurality of Twitter votes told me I was not crazy to recognize Ingles’ unique impact on this game, and even Mitchell himself gave Ingles credit for turning the game around. In straight “game MVP” terms, this would easily be Don. But narrative matters, too, and we’ll remember that game for the way a chatty Ingles changed the tenor of the contest. Somebody riled up the competitive Ingles, inspiring him to drop five threes, six assists and 20 points (on just 11 shots). He was a +27, and when the Jazz got behind by 10, he scored 11 of the team’s points in a 20-3 run to put Utah in control. (Mitchell and Conley took over from there, scoring 17 of the final 18 Jazz points.)

Strong in Defeat:

• Jazz 103, Mavs 111: Mike Conley. Conley poured in 28 points on just 13 shots, and also added seven assists. Gobert was a close second, making all six shots on the way to a 14-and-15 double-double, and holding Dallas to 1-of-5 shooting at the rim. Those two kept the Jazz in it despite off nights from Mitchell, Bogdanovic, Clarkson and Royce O’Neale.
• Jazz 113, Suns 117: Donovan Mitchell. Easy. Mitchell willed the Jazz into overtime with a 13-point fourth quarter (including the tying three on the last play of regulation), and finished with 41 points and eight boards. Gobert was really good again (16 & 18, 7/7 shooting, great defense against a roster that forces him to play a bit differently), and Favors was sneaky impactful.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action.

The Jazz have a unique kind of 4-in-6 stretch this week, with a back-to-back, two days off, and then another back-to-back.

Monday 4/12, Jazz vs. Wizards: Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook combined for 78 last month when the Wiz upset the Jazz in D.C. The Jazz were without Conley in that one, and they’ll be missing the All-Star guard again on Monday night. Clarkson may also miss his third straight game with an ankle issue, which would put Utah pretty thin on the guardline as they face a team that is pretty guard-driven. O’Neale, Ingles and even Miye Oni will all be pretty important to the Jazz’s chances at revenge. Washington is 4-8 since that win over the Jazz.

Tuesday 4/13, Jazz vs. Thunder: OKC has lost six in a row and nine of 10, all without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The 23.7-ppg scorer is listed as day-to-day, so it’s unclear whether the Jazz will see him on Tuesday. The Thunder have also more or less shut down Al Horford, traded veterans George Hill and Trevor Ariza, and released Austin Rivers, Darius Miller and Justin Jackson. In other words, they are focused on seeing what they have in young guys like Theo Maledon, Isaiah Roby and Aleksej Pokusevski. Right now, that exercise is resulting mostly in growing pains: those three have net ratings of -28 or worse during this 1-9 skid.

Friday 4/16, Jazz vs. Pacers: After a health scare and an uneven start to his Pacers career, Caris LeVert is finally turning it on. He’s averaging 21.8 over his past five games, and the Pacers are 9-7 since he debuted last month. Myles Turner has missed three straight games, so we may not get the Turner-Gobert showdown of DPOY candidates. But that might simplify a lineup issue that Indy has faced all year: per Cleaning the Glass, they’re a net -2.4 in all lineups that feature both of their 6-11 bigs, Turner and Domantas Sabonis.  

Saturday 4/17, Jazz @ Lakers: Utah has just three games left against teams with a top-10 record, and two of them come against the hobbled Lakers in L.A. Before you get too excited, though, Davis will be reevaluated this week, and his return is not that far off, per ESPN. During the 12 games they’ve been without both superstars, they’ve been led by Dennis Schröder (16.4 ppg) and Montrezl Harrell (15.8).

Random stuff from the Jazz community.

Joe and Renae Ingles keep doing great things for the community.

Very proud day… 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 @RenaeIngles https://t.co/95dT4gupxR

— Joe Ingles (@Joeingles7) April 9, 2021

Other fun stuff this week: Gobert quote tweets a celebratory nod from our own Jake Lee; a jersey concept by our pal @JazzUniTracker gets brought to life; and actor John Cleese finally got to see his beloved Jazz play in person.

Thanks for following along with us this week. More to come!