Salt City Seven: What This Season’s About, Kessler Blocks 100, Rough Week & More

Kessler’s development has been a central storyline to the season — as has his growing block list. (Rick Bowmer via sltrib.com)

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

Things have taken quite the turn for the Utah Jazz, who were a game over .500 on February 1 but have since lost eight of 12. They lost three straight to projected lottery teams this past week, and haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since January 28.

More than that, we’re starting to see on-court variations we couldn’t have imagined a few months ago. Even beyond the February trade that sent four Jazzmen elsewhere, the club’s three top scorers have each taken turns sitting out games since the All-Star break. All at once, this has become a very different type of Jazz team, and it’s natural for some fans to be reeling a bit as a result.

Which makes this a good time to remember what we thought this season was going to be about way back in October. This season was never going to be defined in terms of raw wins and losses. Jazz brass have publicly referred to the 2022-23 campaign as a “fact-finding mission,” and in the early part of the season, I wrote a two–part piece highlighting the three big, broad things the Jazz would seek to figure out:

1. Which guys could be part of a future contending Jazz team.
2. Where players specifically need to develop their games to be part of a future core (or to enhance their trade value as the rebuild continues).
3. Establish a basketball identity.

With the Jazz seeming to flail here over the last month, it might be worth revisiting each of those topics as a reminder of what this whole exercise is actually about.

Who’s part of the core?

This is the area where this season has already been an unqualified success.

With Lauri Markkanen’s explosion, the Jazz discovered their next building block just weeks after bidding adieu to a pair of All-Stars. We can quibble about whether Markkanen’s trajectory reaches the highest heights of title alpha-dom, or whether it tops out at second fiddle (or “1B” type status). For now, that’s kind of immaterial. He’s 25 and still getting better so rather than set arbitrarily limits on how good he can be, it’s probably worth celebrating the fact that the Jazz had an All-Star in year one of the rebuild process. That’s huge.

Beyond Markkanen, Walker Kessler and Ochai Agbaji have both shown glimpses of how they can contribute at an NBA level. Kessler’s impact was evident right away, and Agbaji’s confidence and awareness have grown tremendously after a slow start. The Jazz have made progress on their project to shape Collin Sexton into a more heady creation engine.

Jordan Clarkson’s a special case. At 30, he’s right on the edge of where Utah could consider him a valuable role player for the next contending Jazz team. A lot of that decision will come down to future cost. A contending team probably has Clarkson as something like its 5th to 7th best player, which probably means the Jazz could comfortably pay low-end starter money: mid to high teens in today’s NBA economy. If it takes $25 million annually to retain him, the Jazz would probably be OK letting him walk and instead heading into this summer with more than $50 million in cap room. On the court, his shooting has cooled but he has made a remarkable improvement as a playmaker, with a career-high 4.4 assist mark.

At this point in the season, the Jazz have probably learned what they need to know about those five, which is partially why they’re now taking extended looks at other guys who might or might not make their case as future pieces. Talen Horton-Tucker is still young, but probably needs a jumper to be a long-term rotation piece. Simone Fontecchio is emerging from a nasty shooting slump, but overall seems to have a good understanding of how to play. Udoka Azubuike, Johnny Juzang, and the newly signed Kris Dunn feel somewhat replaceable in a long-term sense, but the Jazz are giving them chances to make their case. Same goes for two former Lakers acquired in that February trade.

If you think about the season through that lens, it’s a lot easier to stomach some a rough spring. This season is about gathering information. They already know what they need to know about Markkanen and Kessler, at least for now. They might need more opportunities to analyze other dudes, and the information they’re gathering now is worth more over the long haul than a couple of incremental wins in a season when the Jazz are not equipped to be a real threat.

Development

That dovetails right into this next 2022-23 priority: giving guys some space to operate beyond their comfort zone.

When the Jazz traded Bojan Bogdanovic last fall, they did so partially with the intent of giving Markkanen a real shot to lead. The Finn rewarded that faith by turning in one of those most efficient season ever by a 25-ppg scorer. Now, the Jazz will try the same thing by clearing the way for more opportunities for Agbaji, for Sexton (when he’s healthy), and for other young guys.

Agbaji, for example, has been a pretty solid developmental success for the Jazz. He looked timid in early minutes, and there was concern in the fan base that he might not live up to his lottery promise. Now, he’s averaging 11.4 points per game since the All-Star break, and he’s starting to riff off of scripted actions in a way that’s super encouraging. His percentage on above-the-break 3s is slowly climbing (31.5% for the season now), and he’s been great from the corners all year (42.1%). He’s also willing to do more with the ball in his hands, and the defensive foundation is there.

But in the NBA, it’s hard to give rookies meaningful growth opportunities when you’re also trying to squeeze every win out of a roster. The Jazz were always going to gravitate back to emphasizing and accelerating learning curves at some point.

Identity

Nobody expected Kessler to be good enough right away to have a real impact on winning, so that’s one way the Jazz have figure out something about their future style: they will likely play at least a portion of their games for the next half decade or so with traditional size at the five. He provides a vertical spacing element the Jazz didn’t really have otherwise, which brings more attention to the middle of the court on pick-and-roll situations. We’ve also learned a bunch about how the Jazz can and will use Markkanen, both on and off the ball.

There’s also a lot that will come into focus once the Jazz have the rest of their star core in place. That takes time. In the meantime, basketball identity is less relevant with some of these makeshift lineups, but you can still see Hardy trying to preserve some elements of the system so that the reps guys get as they work on their games are more authentic to future situations. That’s why the Jazz brought in ball-handlers on 10-day contracts. But for the most part, the identity question will be a slow boil.

Also… Health

I didn’t mention this in my two-part fall column because it sort of goes without saying… but now that the Jazz have 17 games left, one of their main priorities will be getting guys to the finish line without any major health incidents.

I’m sure they’d love for Markkanen to get an MIP trophy. But protecting him from blowing out a knee in game 77-or-whatever because he’s playing on a hurt back — yeah, that’s way more important than hardware.

That’s especially true for Sexton, who’s coming off a serious knee surgery. His specific knee injury has a much lower chance of recurrence once he graduates from the first 12 months post a return to play. So there’s just no reason to ask him to go out there on a sore hamstring and risk compromising the surgically repaired knee just so the Jazz can chase 39 wins instead of 37 (or whatever it winds up being). That’s not to say the Jazz are going to shut Sexton down entirely, but don’t expect more 40-minute nights for the 24-year-old guard. Getting him to the finish line injury-free is a big deal.

—

Losses aren’t particularly fun, so this writer won’t chastise anybody for still wanting to see Utah play their best. But we’ve known since September that this year was going to be measured a little differently. Enjoy the ride and remember: whether the Jazz finish 0-17 or 17-0, or anything in the between, their going to be focused on things that are going to have a big impact on how good they can be next season and beyond.

In the words of Jazz players/people

“It’s a long haul. You just gotta take it one day at a time, one game at a time. Stay focused. It’ll feel long sometimes. You just gotta keep the main thing the main thing. Every time you go on the road it’s a chance to come together and build chemistry and cohesiveness, on the court (and) off the court.”

-Kelly Olynyk on the Jazz’s season-long 6-game road trip

If you’ve watched any Jazz broadcast lately, you know all about the rigorous trip the Jazz are now two games into; they really like to get their money’s worth out of those “miles traveled” animations.

But in all seriousness, this one is particularly grueling, even before you factor in all the injury absences that have shortened the bench and pressed guys into longer action than what they may be accustomed to playing. Luckily there are no back-to-backs as part of this 6-game trip, and then they get a somewhat unprecedented 4-day rest in between flying home from Miami and starting a brutal homestand against the Celtics (#2 in the EC), Kings (#3 WC), Blazers (fighting like hell to make the play-in) and Bucks (#1 in the league).

Key stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week

92.2

The Jazz’s game against San Antonio featured their single worst defensive performance of the season, at 92.2 points per 100. They managed a true shooting percentage of just 46.6% (also a season low) against the literal worst defense in the league.

25%

Then Friday’s visit to OKC was the third worst offensive performance of the year, thanks in large part to a season-worst 25% turnover percentage. That means for every three times the Jazz successfully got a shot off, they also just handed OKC the ball.

3

The Jazz had just one wire-to-wire loss all season before Friday night — they never led in their 111-117 February loss to Memphis — but then had two in a row in Bricktown. In all, they have played nearly 99 minutes since the last time they had a lead, which was 93-92, right up until 2:46 left against the Spurs.

+4.0, +2.7

It’s nearly been a month since the Jazz’s midseason trade, and in those 10 games their best net ratings belong to, somewhat surprisingly, Olynyk and THT.

-7.8%

There’s a lot to like about what Agbaji has done with increased playing time. For one thing, he’s holding players to 28.3% from 3-point territory, 7.8 percentage points below their expected mark. Statheads will tell you that 3-point defense is largely about random variance, but that’s a big enough difference that it’s worth investigating. Play type stats (also imperfect as they only measure an endpoint) agree: he’s in the 94th percentile defending spot-up shooters. He is, however, well below average guarding ball handlers in P&R (30th %ile) and iso (17th) scenarios. So there’s still work to do as an on-ball stopper.

Projecting the Jazz’s place in the bigger picture

It seems a little clearer today which direction the Jazz are trending, but as long as they’re still within reasonable reach of Western Conference playoff teams, we’ll keep an eye on the Jazz’s competition in both directions.

Currently EC playoff teams Miami (#7) and Atlanta (#8) are also within 3 games of the Jazz.

Observations:

• The Jazz have the hardest schedule left of WC teams in the 5-13 range, and they only have two home games remaining against bad teams.
• They are clinging to the final play-in spot by virtue of a tiebreaker, but LAL has a schedule strength that is nearly 6 percentage points easier. So does OKC, and they’re only a half game back.
• Indy and Chicago being so close behind Washington may keep them motivated down the stretch — especially the Bulls since they likely won’t own their pick anyway.
• The Pels continue their tumble down the standings, and the latest wording on Zion Williamson’s update was rather vague.
• The guess here: two of LAL/OKC/Por sneak into the 9-10 bracket in the play-in… unless Zion’s timeline gets accelerated.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz outing

Uh oh, the Game Ball department called in sick, and as a result we have only consolation awards to hand out this week:

Strong in defeat:

• Jazz 94, Spurs 102: Lauri Markkanen. Markkanen had a 21-point first half and a 28-and-10 double-double overall. He had a rough 4th (0/4), but so did everybody outside of Kris Dunn. No one else was close to matching the All-Star’s production, but Kessler was also pretty important: 10 and 15 and a palpable impact on defense. THT had a nice night other than the seven turnovers, which had a lot to do with how the door cracked open for San Antonio.
• Jazz 103, Thunder 130: Simone Fontecchio. Markkanen’s 20 and 10 came rather laboriously, and the more positive development out of this otherwise unfun affair was Fontecchio’s awakening after a lengthy slump. The Italian forward hit four threes and 16 points, only two of which came after the garbage subs. The other obvious candidate was Kessler, with his perfect shooting, modest double-double (10 and 11), and 4 blocks. Olynyk scored 15 on just five field goal attempts, and Dunn was again spunky with 11-6-6 (and 3 steals).
• Jazz 119, Thunder 129: Jordan Clarkson. The starting bigs both had double-doubles, Agbaji had an encouraging night despite being off from deep, and Dunn continues to do stuff. But this was fairly easily Clarkson’s after sparking whatever hope existed after the Jazz fell behind by 24. The career-high 12 assists were a big deal, and he scored or assisted 32 of the Jazz’s points after halftime. His final tally was 18 and 12, plus four boards and two steals. Dunn’s 17 and +6 earned him some consideration, but the best sign as it related to the long term was Agbaji’s smart, aggressive play.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action

Set your DVR, the Jazz have early games all week as they stay in the Central and Eastern time zones.

Tuesday 3/7, Jazz @ Mavs: On paper, the Mavs just got a lot better, finally finding that secondary star to put next to Luka Doncic. Basketball isn’t played on paper, though, and the Mavs are now 2-5 with Doncic and Kyrie Irving suited up together. This will be Irving’s second time facing the Jazz this season, as he wasn’t suited up immediately post-trade for February 6 Mavs win over Utah. But beware: the guy had 48-11-6-4 when he visited Salt Lake City with the Nets in January. Luka also missed the last two Jazz-Mavs games, and yet Dallas is up 2-1 for the season.

Thursday 3/9, Jazz @ Magic: The Magic aren’t actually as terrible as their record makes them look. They got off to a 5-20 start, but since then they are 22-18. Paolo Banchero is a beast, averaging 20 despite a total lack of outside shot (27%), and his aggressiveness allows Franz Wagner (18.8 ppg) and Wendell Carter Jr. (15.0) to perform comfortable as secondary scoring threats. But they’re a bad 3-point shooting team, and even worse when you consider that Terrence Ross left via buyout. They have a bottom-6 offense thanks to their poor outside shooting and a lack of creating guards. (Markelle Fultz has been OK, and his return from injury roughly coincides with Orlando’s awakening.) 

Saturday 3/11, Jazz @ Hornets: Here’s another bad team that’s been having a little mini-resurgence: Charlotte recently rattled off five straight wins, but sandwiched them with losing streaks of seven and three. Former Jazzman Gordon Hayward has also looked rejuvenated, averaging 19-4-5 over his last nine. But without LaMelo Ball (broken ankle), and Hornets just don’t have a ton of juice. They’re 7-21 in those games. Terry Rozier and Kelly Oubre Jr. are both averaging 20-plus to fill the void, but this is the league’s worst offense because they just can never get healthy at the same time. Oubre, Hayward and Ball have played just 10 games together, and they were 6-4.

Random stuff from the Jazz community

Hat tip to SCH’s other Clayton, who alerted me to the fact that Kessler was close to a fun milestone, and then updated me right up until history happened.

Kessler has already blocked 100 different NBA players. Aaron Wiggins become his 100th customer on Friday night, and then he kept swatting the crap out of the Thunder with five more rejections — all on repeat victims — on Sunday night. The Thunder are now the team has most often found itself on the business end of Kessler swats.

Kessler needed just 61 games to block his 100th different NBA player.

Only three NBA players have more than Kessler’s 140 blocks this season, and he remains elite at paint protection in general. He has now contested 406 rim attempts, and of the top 18 players in rim contests, only Brook Lopez and Nic Claxton hold opponents to a lower percentage than Kessler’s 53.0%.

Seventeen remain, friends!