Salt City Seven: Can Jazz Sustain Historic Shooting + Playoffs, Planes, Passes

Ingles and the Jazz are enjoying a historic outside shooting season. (via Sporting News)

Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

What the Jazz are doing right now behind the 3-point line is historic. It’s also very sustainable as Utah looks to ride its outside shooting and overall offensive firepower to a deep playoff run.

The Jazz have made a dozen or more threes in each of their last 39 games. The second longest single-season streak in NBA history is 19. Think about that: the Jazz have more than double the streak of the next closest team… ever. When we look back on the proliferation of the 3-point driven offense in the NBA, we’ll think about how the “seven seconds or less” Suns and the spread pick-and-roll of the Spurs set the framework for an era obsessed with pace-and-space basketball. We’ll think about how the Warriors picked up where they left off, leveraging a historically great shooter and fluid positional basketball to warp defensive geometry. We’ll think about the Moreyball Rockets taking the commitment to 3-point offense to it’s logical extreme, and about Dame Lillard pulling up from the logo.

And what the Jazz are doing right now is something none of those other teams came even halfway close — speaking literally — to experiencing.

That’s one measure of Utah’s historically unique commitment to the the mathematical truth that 3 > 2. There are plenty of others. The creator of Basketball Reference tells us that Utah’s four games this season with 25+ threes are also a league record. Only one franchise has ever taken a higher percentage of non-garbage time shots as threes than Utah’s current 45.2%. (Houston was over that number in each of the past three seasons, topping out at 48.6% of their shots being threes in the 2018-19.) And as Kevin O’Connor¹ pointed out today at The Ringer, these Jazz have a chance at being the first team ever to take 40% of their shots as threes and to make 40% of them in the same season.

Joe Ingles leads the way at 50% on the season — an absolutely ridiculous feat given the sample size of 246 shots. Donovan Mitchell (40.4%), Mike Conley (41.4%) and Royce O’Neale (40.3%) are all having career-best seasons as long-range shooters, while Bojan Bogdanovic (39.0%) and Georges Niang (39.5%) are right at their career figures. Even though Jordan Clarkson is converting a more modest 35.2% from outside², he famously has dropped a three in 75 straight games, the third longest active streak in the NBA and the 13th longest of such streaks in league history.

Can this possibly hold up? With four Jazz shooters knocking in a career-high percentage, is this even remotely something the Jazz can depend on moving forward?

Mostly, sure. Ingles won’t shoot 50% forever, and Mitchell won’t keep shooting 55% on off-the-bounce threes, as he has done during the current 9-win streak. They and others will certainly have ups and downs, as is always the case with outside shooting. But it’s how the Jazz are generating their looks that inspires confidence that this will hold up.

Mathy types will tell you that 3-point shooting outcomes are pretty prone to good or bad luck, and they’re largely right. Even a 40% shooter will have stretches where they make 30 out of 100 and stretches where they make 50 out of 100, and it evens out over time. At a team level, game-to-game variance in shooting outcomes — even for good-shooting teams like the Jazz — somewhat prove that there’s some luck at play.

But here’s what you miss when you dismiss shooting numbers as mostly a function of luck: not all 3-point shots are created equal. The median team shoots between 31 and 32% on threes that are closely contested, but 35% when the nearest defender is 4-6 feet away and 39% when defenses leave them even more open than that. Even those numbers are subject to variance. But if a player — or a teamful of players in thise case — see a rise in percentages, it could mean one of two things. It could be that they’re incredibly lucky and the law of averages will come for them at any second. Or it could mean they’re committed to taking the right kinds of shots.

All those Jazz shooters aren’t having an outlier year by accident: Utah’s shooting the ball so well right now because of their commitment to creating more OPEN 3-pointers than anybody else. A league-leading 42.6% of Utah’s field goal attempts are 3-pointers where the opponent is at least four feet away. That includes 24.5% where the defender is at least six feet away, also #1 in the league.

A big part of the reason Utah’s shooters are so open on threes is the guy who never shoots them: Rudy Gobert commands so much attention with his elite roll finishing ability, and he constantly draws a crowd even on plays where he doesn’t touch the ball at all.

It’s probably worth freeze-framing those. Here’s what the floor looked like at the moment the pass was released to the perimeter. And again, remember: Gobert doesn’t even touch the ball on either of these plays.

Click for larger version

There are plenty of times he does get the ball on those rolls, and he’s getting better at delivering the short-roll pass out to the corner when the help comes — or stuffing the ball when it doesn’t.

Other times, Gobert (or Derrick Favors, another solid screener) picks directly for the shooter — but we’ll spare you the “screen assist” talk for now. Lately, they’re using Bogdanovic’s gravity in the post to tilt the floor in favor of weak side shooters. And of course, sometimes it’s just the sheer number of shooting threats that sends defenders scurrying in various directions.

Whatever mechanism they use to open up the perimeter, these are high-quality shots that Utah will keep converting at a high clip if they can continue to generate them. In the playoffs they’ll see tailored defenses that will try to short circuit some of their pet actions that most often result in wide open looks. But every decision a defense make has a counter. And right now, Utah is playing with a high level of chemistry and smarts, collectively sniffing out the fissure in the defense based on the choices made by opponents.

In other words, it looks largely sustainable. Ingles and Mitchell will probably cool off at some point. Maybe Bogey and Clarkson will heat up. But at a team level, it’s the commitment to generating a certain type of shot that is creating this unprecedented level of success. 

Keeping track of the Jazz’s place in the wild, wild West.

For the first time in a while, there was movement in the top eight this past week, as Memphis (at least for now) grabbed the eighth spot away from San Antonio. The Lakers have fallen to fifth, and are just a half game away from sixth place — which would put them outside of Utah’s 1/8/4/5 half of the bracket — as they continue to deal with LeBron James’ and Anthony Davis’ extended absences.

A new team crashes the top 8, and a wounded juggernaut slips back.

At this point, it’s unlikely that anybody can make up a 7-plus game gap in the loss column with so few games remaining (and with Utah still slated to play 11 games against bottom-10 teams). That means that it’s unlikely anybody other than Utah or Phoenix can claim the top seed. B-Ref agrees, giving the field a combined 0.1% chance at storming to the top.

That makes Wednesday’s Jazz-Suns tilt a huge deal if Utah wants to close the door and inch closer to clinching homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs.

In their own words

“For a good 10 to 15 minutes, I think all of us on that flight were questioning if we were going to be here today.”

-Conley, on the Jazz’s harrowing flight experience on Tuesday afternoon

OK, you’ve heard plenty about this storyline already, but we just can’t call this a complete accounting of the week in Jazzland without referencing the terrifying accounts of what happened when a flock of birds caused an engine to catch fire on the Jazz’s charter plane.

“The plane immediately started to bounce and then just started tilting to the left,” Conley expounded in a video shared by KSL’s Matthew Glade. “Immediately the altitude started to drop… Everybody was just quiet, we were just in shock.”

If you or I watched an engine explode 10 minutes into a flight on a business trip, we’d stay home. It’s almost unfathomable to think about experiencing that and then getting on a flight a few hours later — let alone taking a minimum of EIGHTEEN MORE FLIGHTS³ over the subsequent month and a half. Mitchell absolutely did the right thing by putting his mental health first and staying home, and I wouldn’t have judged anybody else who was too nervous to step on a plane a mere six hours after that experience.

And not to make this about basketball when it’s, you know, extremely NOT about basketball… but that human context really puts the rest of the Jazz’s week in an even more impressive light. They notched two clutch wins and then secured their most lopsided win in three seasons, all just hours to days after thinking, in Clarkson’s words, “Man, this might be over for us.”

Stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week.

9+

Utah’s current streak is their third this season that has reached nine wins or more. No other team in the NBA has had even a single 9-plus win streak this season. Three Eastern Conference teams (Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Atlanta) have won eight in a row at some point this season, and the L.A. teams have each had a 7-win streak. That makes Utah’s 11-, 9- and 9-game streaks the three longest in the Association.

34-2

The Jazz had runs of 17-2 and 17-0 against Cleveland, holding them without a field goal for a combined 10:50 in those two stretches.

122.4

The Jazz are 5-0 since in “clutch” games⁴ since the All-Star break, which brings them to third in the league in clutch offense with 122.4 points per 100 possessions matching the criteria. They have still played the fewest clutch minutes (49) of any team in the league, but they’re remembering how to execute their stuff in the few games that do remain close throughout — including this week’s wins over Memphis and Chicago.

18

That’s a lot of 3-point shots to make in a single half. Remember: it wasn’t that long ago that Utah set a new franchise record with 20 triples in a game. That’s how fast this team and this league are evolving. Had the Jazz been facing even a slightly more competitive group of Magic players, they would have had an excuse to stick to their rotation a little bit longer and would have set a new league record for threes in a game. But up 40-plus, Quin Snyder opted to do the gentlemanly thing and pull his main guys. Consequently, the Jazz had to settle for “just” breaking the record for threes in a half. Not even the trigger-happy Rockets or the Steph-and-Klay Warriors ever canned 18 in a half.

+515

With Gobert on the court, the Jazz have outscored opponents by 515 points this season. That’s best in the NBA by 100 points, and it’s 173 points better than the best non-Jazz player. (Conley is #2 at +415.)⁵

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

Once again, we have a ton of work ahead of us in the Game Ball department after four more Jazz wins.

Jazz 114, Cavs 75: Rudy Gobert. The big fella was centrally involved in both of those extended runs without Cavs scores, which has a lot to do with why he (and Conley) had a monster +38 for the game. The Cavs didn’t have much of an answer for him on the other end, either, which is why he had 18 points to go with his 17 boards and four blocks in just 27 minutes. Conley (18-4-5) was a distant second. Mitchell had an efficient 19, and Ingles’ DRtg for the game was a ludicrous 41.0.

Jazz 111, Grizzlies 107: Mike Conley. Bogdanovic and Clarkson each had nice stretches too, but when Utah headed into crunch time without their go-to offensive player, it was former Grizzly Conley who brought them home. It was a 1-point margin at the 5:00 mark, and then Conley assisted five quick Jazz points before scoring eight clutch points of his own. His fingerprints were all over Utah’s clutch win, and he finished with 26 points, seven assists, four steals and four rebounds. 

Jazz 113, Bulls 106: Rudy Gobert. For the second time in a couple of weeks, the Bulls didn’t have a lot of answers for Gobert — on either end. It helped that he sank his free throws (7/8), but he was great on the roll and finished creatively, including a memorable lefty scoop. The final damage was 19 points (on 7 shots!), 13 boards, and 10-of-26 shooting for the Bulls (38.5%) when Gobert was the closest defender⁶. Mitchell took over down the stretch, assisting a Bogey three and then scoring the next eight Jazz points. He recovered from a slow start with a 26-point, five-assist night. Bogey made his case too, taking over the offense for two separate stretches on and 18-and-8 night, and Clarkson had an efficient 19.

Jazz 137, Magic 91: Donovan Mitchell. A win this lopsided skews minutes and stats to the point, where it can be hard to find a true hero, but Mitchell was just unconscious in the first half. He dropped 22 points on 11 shots before the break, pulling up from all over the court. He also grabbed three steals and dished four assists in just 21 minutes. Ingles (17, 5-for-7 from three) and Clarkson (15, nine assists) also both had turns taking over offensively. But Mitchell’s stretch was slightly more giggle-inducing than Ingles’ and Clarkson did a lot of his stuff in the second half when he logged a few minutes with the third unit. Bogey (17 on 10 shots) had another good game, too.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action.

Another 4-in-6 stretch awaits Utah this week (part of a larger 6-games-in-9-days stretch), and this time it comes against a very serious slate of opponents.

Monday 4/5, Jazz @ Mavs: This will be Utah’s first game against a top-8⁷ Western Conference team since the All-Star break. The Mavs weren’t quite themselves when Utah beat them by a combined 31 points in consecutive games back in late January, so expect a stiffer test in Texas. The Mavs have now won four in a row and six of their last eight. They have the league’s sixth best efficiency differential in the last two weeks, thanks in large part to a stout defense. Kristaps Porzingis will not play against the Jazz, and JJ Redick (heel) still hasn’t debuted for Dallas since his deadline day trade there.

Wednesday 4/7, Jazz @ Suns: This game could be really important in the long run. The Suns (10-3 since the break) are the only team with a real feasible chance at catching the Jazz for the No. 1 seed. If Phoenix wins both remaining home games against Utah, they’d only need to make up two games in the loss column over the other 22. Conversely, if the Jazz win both, they’d lead by five in the loss column and own the tiebreaker. Fun fact: the Jazz and Suns are #1 and #2 respectively at defending the top 10 offenses in the league, and they are #3 and #1 respectively at scoring against the top 10 defenses, per Cleaning the Glass. 

Thursday 4/8, Jazz vs. Blazers: Another test against a surging team. Portland is 5-1 since the trade deadline. Norm Powell is shooting 46% from deep in his first five games as a Blazer, and they got Jusuf Nurkic back at the same time. He’s still on a minutes limit, but the cumulative effect of those changes is that the Blazers have been unstoppable lately on offense. Already a top-6 offense for the season, they lead the league since March 23 with their 119.7 ORtg. Utah will also be on a back-to-back, with the Blazers waiting in Salt Lake while the Jazz deal with Phoenix.

Saturday 4/10, Jazz vs. Kings: The week ends with the NBA’s worst defense taking on the best offense. Sacramento ranks dead last in non-garbage time defense, largely because they have no rim protection. That said, they are capable offensively. De’Aaron Fox (24.5 points) headlines the offense. Rookie Tyrese Haliburton (5.0 apg, 42% from three) has been fun, and former Utah Ute Delon Wright is shooting 46% from outside since joining the Kings via trade. The athletic, quick, guard-focused Kings don’t have a great shot profile in the halfcourt, but they will try to run: they are fourth best in the NBA at turning opponent misses into transition opportunities.

Random stuff from the Jazz community.

Plenty of fun stuff to choose from this week in Jazzland, but we’ll go with Ingles making history. On Wednesday night, the chatty forward passed Andrei Kirilenko for fifth on the franchise’s all-time assist leaderboard.

Here’s a look at the primary beneficiaries of Ingles’ generosity on the court.

No surprise, Ingles’ favorite assist targets in his seven Jazz seasons have been the bigs.

The supremely likable Ingles also made news this week with yet another initiative to help children with autism get the education resources they need.

Thanks for joining us yet again! A month and a half to go…