Salt City Seven: Trade Likelihood, All-Starless, 50-40-90 & More

Markkanen’s having a historically great run of shooting. (Rick Egan, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz. 

A quick look at the big, burning question of the moment in Jazzland

Without a doubt, the largest question in Jazzland this week is around who might be within days or hours of the end of their Jazz tenure.

The trade deadline is less than three days away. The Jazz have just one game remaining before they have to make decisions, and if they swing an early deal like they did last February, it’s possible that somebody has already played in his game as a member of the Jazz.

In previous years, I’ve done a full-blown trade likelihood ranking. This time around, let’s instead just consider the current 15 Jazzmen¹ in trade likelihood tiers. I’m having a crisis of conscience about actually ranking them, so I’ll instead list the guys in each group in minutes per game order.

Functionally unavailable: Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George, Walker Kessler

Even Markkanen isn’t technically off limits; there are theoretical — albeit largely unrealistic — trade scenarios the Jazz would have to convene to discuss seriously if they were presented.

But the whole point of a rebuild is to identify guys like him, capable of tapping into a whole other level and with lots of runway ahead. Markkanen is 26, playing at an All-Star level, and the Jazz like their chances of retaining him via a contract extension next summer. Teams have called, but with offer packages that fall far short of where Utah would even feel compelled to call a meeting.

Of all the young guys in the Jazz’s employ, George and Kessler have shown themselves most capable of contributing to winning both now and later, making them extremely valuable to a team that’s rebuilding but also desires to be competitive soon. Again, neither guy is literally untouchable, but there’s a reason you just haven’t heard their names in the rumor mill.

Will Hardy likes to remind us that this is the first time in George’s life he has consistently played point guard. The outcomes can be uneven at times, but zoom out past the game-by-game results and he’s in great shape for a guy who the Jazz are trying to convert into a table-setter on the fly. And Kessler is already one of the league’s most elite paint protectors: opponents shoot 47.4% at the rim with Kessler defending, a figure no NBA player with even a quarter of his 331 rim contests can match.

Only call with real stuff: Collin Sexton, Ochai Agbaji, Taylor Hendricks

I debated whether Agbaji belongs up above, but his sophomore struggles make him feel not quite as indispensable as George and Kessler. He routinely takes the toughest defensive assignments and has insane physical tools, but if he turns out to be just an OK shooter, then his macro value in a contending framework probably has a cap. I still think it would take a good asset to consider moving him. Same goes for Hendricks, whom I couldn’t quite classify as untouchable when he still has played fewer than 200 minutes.

Sexton’s explosion as a starter has been one of the coolest things about the 2023-24 Jazz season. You hear vague mention of him being gettable, but I have yet to hear him connected to any specific rumored deal. My guess is that’s a reflection that the dialogue on him hasn’t made it that far. Which makes sense: he’s the current co-second leading scorer (victory lap time), he’s barely 25, and he’s on a really reasonable contract. (There was a time when $17 to $19M felt a little rich for Young Bull, but not anymore.) Only eight guards are averaging 17ppg or more on at least 60% true shooting, and the rest are established stars².

Available, but contractually complicated: Jordan Clarkson, John Collins

Collins at this point is a negative asset, and that’s not even a slam on the Jazz. They got him for free, and taking swings on physically exceptional 26-year-olds is exactly what a team in the Jazz’s situation should be doing. But with defensive issues, just-OK shooting, and $53 million still owed after this season, he’s someone the Jazz would have to attach an asset to move (unless he’s salary filler in a huge buyer trade that it doesn’t sound like is currently out there). Based on where the Jazz are at today, it just doesn’t make sense to attach stuff to move on from him. Which is why I foresee he’ll be a Jazzman at 1:01 MST on Thursday.

Clarkson is clearly attracting more attention than that on the open market, but the big question there is whether offers for the dynamic scorer will be better in the offseason, when his cap number is $14M instead of $23M and change. There’s persistent Knicks-Clarkson chatter, although Bleacher Report’s Dan Favale speculates New York might want something closer to traditional playmaking as opposed to Clarkson’s mercurial dribble-probing. The Jazz have the luxury of waiting if they can’t get full value out of Clarkson at his current cap number; he’ll be an absolute steal for someone next season at just over $14M.

Make an offer: basically everybody else

The Jazz absolutely love what they’ve gotten from part-time starters Simone Fontecchio and Kris Dunn. At the same time, the former was an off-the-radar signing and the latter was not on an NBA team a year ago today. At some point, if you can turn those types of bargain-basement signings into even second-round capital, you should consider it. (Utah is also light on second-rounders, which would be helpful if they want to include some of their extra 1sts in future deals but want a backstop so they can protect them on the high end… i.e. “You can have one of the Wolves’ picks, but if it’s top 4, you get this 2nd instead,” similar to what the Lakers did with their 2027 1st currently owed to the Jazz.)

Kelly Olynyk has become really important to how the Jazz play. He’s their best passer at any position, and he’s a hell of a shooter when he’s actually willing to let fly. He’s also about to be a 33-year-old free agent, which is why the consensus out there is that the Jazz will likely move on.

He could also help a bunch of teams. Consider that the Grizzlies got three 2nds (and an expiring salary match) for Steven Adams, another non-star big man in the same salary range, but one who’s injured and won’t be available until next season. That’s probably a fair reference point for bigs in the Olynyk tier. Alternatively, the Jazz could trade him for a look at someone younger, even if it’s someone who hasn’t set the world on fire up until now.

None of Talen Horton-Tucker, Omer Yurtseven, Luka Samanic or Brice Sensabaugh has played more than 53 minutes since December 21, a 15-8 span for Utah. Sensabaugh’s rookie contract and Yurtseven’s fully non-guaranteed 2024-25 probably allow the Jazz to be a little choosy with them. The other two, though, will be unrestricted free agents after 30ish more games, which means the Jazz would likely be willing, but also that they’re unlikely to draw much value.

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I’ll have more coming on this site soon around the Jazz’s trade deadline approach and purported desires.

Telling or interesting words from Jazz people

“I wish Lauri was named to the All-Star team… He gives us the opportunity every night, no matter who we’re playing or how they’re guarding us, he’s going to give us an opportunity to create some advantages for our team because of his wide-ranging skill set…

“There are nights where we all need to pinch ourselves and go, ‘What this guy does night in and night out is pretty amazing.’”

-Hardy, after Markkanen was left off the Western Conference All-Star reserves

Here are a few stats about Markkanen:

• Markkanen is fifth in the conference in Inpredictable’s Win Probability Added stat. The only players he trails are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (All-Star starter), Steph Curry (All-Star reserve), Kevin Durant (All-Star starter) and Nikola Jokic (All-Star starter).
• He’s still ninth in Estimated Plus-Minus at Dunks and Threes.
• He has the 12th highest VORP and the 8th highest WS/48.
• He’s one of four players in the Western Conference (Jokic, Durant and Kawhi Leonard being the other three) who average at least 23 on 59% effective field goal percentage or better.
• Of the NBA’s 53 20ppg scorers, only SGA and Tyrese Haliburton (both All-Star starters) have a higher point per shot attempt figure than Markkanen, per Cleaning the Glass.

Look, nobody made the Western Conference reserves who is actually a bum masquerading as a great player. This is a tough conference to become/remain an All-Star. But Markkanen deserves it.

Stats that tell the story of the week

-10.5

Utah trailed at the half in all four games this past week, by an average margin of 10.5 points. That’s particularly troubling because they’re 6-26 when trailing or tied at the break. Of course, one of those six wins was Sunday’s late surge against the Bucks. (They’re 19-0 when they lead at the half, making them the only undefeated team in that circumstance.)

120

Last week, we talked about the Jazz’s 11 straight games of 120-plus scoring, the longest such run in more than 40 NBA seasons and tied for the fourth longest streak in league history. The jinx was in full effect, because they not only lost the streak hours later, but the failed to reach 120 in the next two games as they lost the Nets and Knicks on consecutive nights by a combined 48 points.

5.2%

Utah’s offense looked better on Thursday against Philly, but the Jazz put very little pressure on the Sixers. Case in point: the 5.2% turnover rate was the lowest by a Jazz opponent all season, and Philly outscored the Jazz 18-9 on points off turnovers. (The Jazz have been outscored in TO points in six straight games.)

4

The defense and offense finally came together against Milwaukee, at least late: Utah allowed just four paint points in the fourth quarter. The Bucks scored just 30 in the paint for the game, a season low by a Jazz opponent, and only 14 of those came at the rim.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win

Just one victory to celebrate this week, but it was an impressive one.

Jazz 123, Bucks 108: Walker Kessler. Other guys had gaudier stat lines than Kessler’s 13-8-3 with 3 blocks, but this game was won in the defensive paint. It was a 40-13 fourth quarter, and while George (10 points) and Olynyk (8 points, 5 assists) were responsible for most of the offensive part of that, Milwaukee just plain could not score inside in the final 12 minutes. They attempted just five paint shots in the fourth, making two. Kessler was the primary defender on 24 shots all night, and held Milwaukee to 37.5% shooting on those, including 27.3% from deep. George gets the runner-up nod after scoring 19 total and grabbing 10 boards. Markkanen (8 of his 21 in the fourth) and Sexton (19) had a lot to do with Utah’s early success, although the latter didn’t even step on the court in the final frame because of how well the Jazz were playing behind the Markkanen-and-four-subs lineup. Coin toss between Kessler and George for me, but I thought Kessler’s defense mattered more in the 34-point swing.

Strong in defeat:

• Jazz 114, Nets 147: Keyonte George. Despite a rough plus-minus and the fact that he compiled a ton of his 21-4-3 in garbage time, I think George has to get this almost by default. Literally all of the starters except Collins (15 & 7) had rough nights, so it pretty much had to be a second-unit player, and the rook did the most with his team-high minutes.
• Jazz 103, Knicks 118: Collin Sexton. Going anywhere other than Young Bull with this one would probably be overthinking it. Sexton had 22 (on 13 shots) to go with seven assists. Collins played well as Utah jumped out to the 15-6 lead, but ultimately would struggle with his shot and on the defensive end. Fontecchio added the most to Utah’s win probability, per Inpredictable, but it’s hard to give it out for 14-5-1 when Sexton had 22-3-7.
• Jazz 124, Sixers 127: Lauri Markkanen. The Finnisher’s 28-10-3 made this a very obvious call. He had a 14-point (5-for-6) fourth in which he was also directing the offense at times, and Utah’s only fourth quarter lead came when Markkanen orchestrated a 6-point run by hitting his own three and then assisting Sexton’s. Young Bull (22 & 6) is the only other really serious candidate, although we should mention Clarkson’s 10 assists, to go with 16 points.

Breaking down the Xs and Os behind a Jazz score.

If you’re going to want to unleash Kessler’s interior defense late in games, you have to be prepared to figure out how to use him on offense despite the fact that some teams just won’t guard him, even as the screener.

The Jazz have thought through that and we saw on multiple late plays on Sunday how they were able to punish the Bucks for parking Kessler’s defender in the paint.

On the first play, George passes Kessler the ball knowing that if he runs straight into a dribble handoff with Kessler, Bobby Portis isn’t going to help on that screen. This is similar to how the Warriors use Draymond Green when teams leave him alone. He instantly finds the nearest shooter and just sprints into a DHO, and now there’s nobody to help on the other side of that screen.

The next play is even more sophisticated. The Jazz know Portis is going to play “contain” style defense on the flare screen, but they also know that his attention is still going to be on the Kessler-Olynyk action that appears to follow. So if Clarkson sharply changes direction as soon as Portis turns his head to pay attention to the ball screen, nobody’s going to be back there. Of course they have Olynyk handle the ball here because who else is capable of zipping that pass with his left hand right to Clarkson’s chest? Had Damian Lillard come in early, Olynyk only needs to keep his dribble alive for one more bounce to find George on the left wing.

It worked. Kessler was centrally involved in the offensive action on play after play, because the non-defense on him in space became an advantage the Jazz could use, instead of being the spacing liability the Bucks hoped it would be.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of action

It is a weirdly light week for the Jazz, but against tough competition.

• Tuesday 2/6: Jazz vs. Thunder. OKC’s Sunday comeback against Toronto kept them in possession of the West’s top spot, via a tiebreaker with Minnesota. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains unreal (31-6-6 on .651 true shooting is just crazy for a guard who’s just an average shooter), but second scorer Jalen Williams tweaked his ankle and missed Sunday’s game.
• Thursday 2/8: Jazz @ Suns. Phoenix has won 10 of its last 13, and All-Stars Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are averaging 28 apiece. Of course, this game is also six hours after the trade deadline, so the other big question is whether the two teams look exactly the same by tip-off in the Footprint Center.

Random stuff from the Jazz community

The Jazz are currently in the middle of a couple of the great shooting seasons in franchise history.

Source: Stathead/B-Ref

From December 13 forward, Markkanen has shot 50.4% from the field, 41.2% from three, and 90.2% from the line. Markkanen is already in possession of the longest span of 50-40-90 shooting in a single season since Jeff Hornacek retired in 2000: he held those figures over a 39-game period last season. His current 26-game stretch ranks as the ninth longest span of games for which a Jazz player has maintained 50-40-90 in the past 25 seasons.

And what’s crazy is it’s not even the longest stretch of this Jazz season with those shooting splits: Kelly Olynyk shot 56.0-40.3-90.6 over the season’s first 33 games.

Notably, though, the other guys on this graphic are/were all supporting cast members. Horny at that point in his career was the Jazz’s third option if you go by FGA/gm, and the other guys shown their ranked somewhere between 5th (Joe Ingles) and 12th (Jonas Jerebko) on their respective teams in nightly shot attempts. Olynyk is ninth on the current Jazz team. For Markkanen to put up two of the nine longest 50-40-90 stretches in a quarter century of Jazz basketball while being the guy at the top of every scouting report is just wildly impressive.

There’s another week in the books. We’ll see what happens on/before Thursday!