Salt City Seven: War of Attrition, Contender Continuity, Top 4 & More

Ingles and other have had to offset the absence of Mitchell. (via ESPN)

Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

Several months ago, as soon as it became evident that a handful of Western Conference teams had the makeup to be viable title threats, conventional wisdom started to forewarn of what could ultimately be a war of attrition. In a strange and compressed season, the logic went, injuries and COVID-19 related absences could have an outsized impact on the final standings.

Sixty-odd games later, that’s at least partly how the season has played out.

Of those five supposed contenders, the one currently sitting atop the West is the team that has seen its core disrupted the least by injuries, illness or safety protocols. The Jazz, largely unscathed themselves until recent weeks, are close behind. But now the question that lingers with eight games left in Utah’s season is whether or not they can keep pace with the red hot Suns amid untimely absences to their two primary offensive engineers.

“Honestly, it’s kind of no different than what we’ve been through before at a certain stage,” said Joe Ingles of the sudden injury problems. “Since I’ve been here, we’ve been through different adversity really every year.”

The Jazz are currently without All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley Jr., a duo that accounts for a huge chunk of Utah’s offensive creation. Their absence has put a much bigger burden on the 33-year-0ld Ingles, who has had to both run the offense and take on more defensive responsible in 32 minutes a night over the last eight games.

“Obviously as the year goes on, it’s almost a part of our job (that) there are going to be guys going in and out at some point,” Ingles continued.

Overall, they’ve played 13 straight games with at least one of their top three scorers sidelined due to injury. 

“It’s part of the game,” added Georges Niang, another player whose role has increased as Utah managed the injury bug. “I think guys are ready to step up and continue to play Jazz basketball and winning basketball.”

The injuries have taken a toll on the Jazz’s record. Utah is 8-7 since its 9-game winning streak ended early in April, but the team’s Net Rating over that same span is still the best in the Western Conference. Blowout wins against the likes of Houston and Sacramento have certainly helped pad that number, but season-long Net Rating remains a more stable predictor of future success than even win-loss percentage, and the Jazz remain comfortably atop the league there with their +8.9. Take out garbage time, as Cleaning the Glass does, and Utah’s efficiency differential moves to +10.8, an elite figure in the range of several recent title teams.

Bottom line, though: it has been a war of attrition atop the West, with the standings essentially following inverse order of injuries to key players. Those absences could also affect the playoff product, because it has robbed nearly every team of a chance to build the continuity and chemistry that teams rely on in an intense playoff setting.

Here’s a look at how little time each playoff team’s core units have spent together to date.

Phoenix: The best Sun to miss more than a handful of games is their eighth best player by BPM (Jae Crowder). They’re also the least affected from a continuity standpoint, as their presumed playoff starting lineup has played 49 games and nearly 700 minutes together, with a +4.8 Net Rating

Utah: Two of the Jazz’s best three players will have missed more than a dozen games by season’s end. Luckily for them, they had time to build chemistry before the recent rash of injuries: their preferred starting five has seen 593 shared minutes across 41 games (+10.8)

Denver: The Jamal Murray injury and the acquisition of Aaron Gordon via trade have really changed the makeup of this team. Even if Will Barton is back soon, the Nuggets don’t have a single available lineup that has played more than 11 games and 103 minutes together (and that lineup is just +0.8). That said, it hasn’t slowed them down yet; they are 9-1 since Murray went down.

LA Clippers: The Clips are totally in flux. They have just two lineups with more than 100 shared minutes, including their original starting five that has played just 19 games together (+16.7). They may keep Ivica Zubac in the starting five even when Serge Ibaka heals up, but that quintet has shared the court for just 26 minutes. They also added Rajon Rondo during all the injuries, and Reggie Jackson has been playing well during Patrick Beverley’s extended absence, so nobody quite knows what the rotation will look like once everybody is back.

Dallas: Kristaps Porzingis has missed 24 games, and that’s just the most prominent of the many absences related to injury and protocols. If their five most common starters are the choice for a playoff starting five, that group has played together just 22 times, for 281 minutes (+12.6). 

LA Lakers: They finally got their stars back, but in the meantime, they added Andre Drummond and took Marc Gasol out of the rotation. Now Dennis Schroder is set to miss up to a couple of weeks due to COVID-19 protocols, which means its entirely possible that they’ll reach the playoffs having had all of their presumed starters on the court in just… wait for it… ONE game (Friday’s loss to Sacramento).

Portland: CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic both missed extended periods, and when they came back they had a new starter (Norm Powell) to get acquainted with. The result is just 14 games for Portland’s presumed playoff starting lineup (+14.0).

Memphis: Jaren Jackson Jr. has played just five games since returning from injury, so no lineup including the talented young big man has played more than 11 minutes. If they keep JJJ on the bench for the postseason and stick to their most common starting five, it’s a group that has played 33 games together (+8.1), but that includes Grayson Allen who is currently day-to-day with a hand injury.

More than ever before, health and continuity could impact the playoffs roughly as much as pure talent. How quickly can teams that have barely played together synch up to the level required to win in the playoffs? That’s without even factoring in the Eastern Conference, where Brooklyn’s three superstars have played a grand total of seven games together.

At any rate, the Jazz remain on message: players and staff continue to talk about the depth of the team and the trust they have in each other to pick up for fallen comrades.

“If you’re available,” Niang said, “you have to get out there and give us what you’ve got, and contribute to winning.”

Keeping track of the Jazz’s place in the wild, wild West.

The Western Conference is back to being just straight silly. Just in the course of the games played Saturday and Sunday, every single seed changed hands at least once except for Memphis’ No. 8 spot.

What has developed is really 4 separate and really interesting races:

With two weeks left, the WC playoff race is breaking up into 4 mini-races. Click for larger version

The fluidity of those four races makes it impossible to forecast who’s going to land where, so anybody hoping to engineer a particular matchup or dodge a certain team — good luck guessing!

Stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week.

25.5%

Per tracking, the Jazz made just 13 of 51 open and wide open threes (shots where the nearest defender was at least four feet away) in their game at Minnesota on Monday. Also of note: they outscored the Wolves 74-48 in the game’s first 16 minutes and last 12 combined, but lost by a 30-57 margin in the middle 20 minutes.

80.8%

There are a few different ways to articulate just how historically dominant the Jazz were in their Wednesday win in Sacramento. By now, you’ve undoubtedly heard the the Jazz set franchise records for both points scored (154) and margin of victory (49). But how about this one: no team in NBA history¹ has ever topped 80% true shooting in a game. Their 152.5 was also the highest single-game ORtg by a team since March 1998, when the Lamond Murray-era Clippers somehow dropped a 161.7 against Toronto. 

12-1

Interestingly, the Jazz are nearly unbeatable in games where Niang makes three or more from downtown, with 12 wins in those 13 games. (Two such games occurred this last week, including the loss.) That’s especially surprising since games where Niang plays a bigger role as a possession user are by definition almost always games where Utah is missing a key player. He’s really helped them keep the rotation afloat with his shot-making and improved defense.

12

The Jazz took just 12 shots at the rim (making 10) in Friday’s loss to Phoenix. Their 100.0 adjusted ORtg for the evening was the exact same as in their New Year’s Eve loss to Phoenix, tied for the third worst offensive output of the season.

43.3

That’s the difference between Utah’s first-half defensive rating against Toronto on Saturday (121.7) and their second-half defense (78.4). It’s equal parts impressive that they were able to clamp down like that when they wanted to AND frustrating just how easy the Raptors had it for 24 minutes. Rudy Gobert obviously locked the paint down in the second half, but it was actually lineups featuring Derrick Favors (61.5 2nd half DRtg) and Ersan Ilyasova (50.0) that were the stingiest.

In their own words

“We all realize we’re better with each other, that we can all help each other in different ways. I can help Rudy, Rudy helps me, (same) for everybody in the group. I think it’s a part of the learning aspect of really committing to winning and sacrficing to winning.

“At the end of the day, that’s what we all want to do: we all want to win the games and go as far as we can and win championships.”

-Ingles, on the Jazz coming together as a group

This answer actually came in response to a question about how the Jazz moved past some of last year’s “unsalvageable” drama, but Ingles went beyond that context to give some insight into how the team is thinking about the chance to do something special.

Competing for a championship is hard. Making it deep into the playoffs is hard. Even when you think you have a group that is worthy of a long postseason run, there are absolutely no guarantees, especially in a year like this one where championship odds are spread relatively evenly across a quarter of the league’s teams. As many as five Western Conference teams and three squads in the east believe they really have a shot, with a few more on the fringes.

Just as importantly, with a few key contributors in their 30s — including Ingles himself — the Jazz probably sense this current title window likely represents the best shot for at least some on their roster. All of that, Joe says, has combined to make the guys on Utah’s roster more willing to lose themselves a bit more in the idea of a collective goal.

“You just realize the opportunity that you’ve got and that these opportunities don’t come around that often,” Ingles added. “The realization of the opportunity and the sacrifice and everything that goes into what we’ve built for this year… We obviously still got a fair bit of work to do.”

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

Jazz 154, Kings 105: Georges Niang. Gobert was at his most dominant against the hapless Kings, but since this game was mostly about Utah’s offensive explosion, we’ll focus on a trio of scorers. Bogey, Niang and Jordan Clarkson each took a turn or two powering a ridiculous offensive night. Bogey was a team-best +37, led the team in scoring (24), and got to the line 10 times so that he could still manufacture efficient offense even though his three wasn’t falling. But I actually talked myself into Niang here, primarily because he was at his most explosive (4-for-4 from three, 4 assists, +31) during that crazy 46-17 second quarter where Utah took control. Niang’s final line was 19-3-4, on just nine shots, and he had a bit more of the “story of the game” vibe going for him. Matt Thomas also poured it on with a 7-for-7 performance in garbage time, Jarrell Brantley looked good with 13, and Favors had his best all-around game in a while.

Jazz 106, Raptors 102: Bojan Bogdanovic. Here’s a crazy stat: in the 31 Jazz possessions that ended with Bogey shooting, going to the line, turning the ball over or assisting a teammate, the Jazz’s ORtg was 141.9. On the other 65 possessions, it was 95.4. The forward absolutely carried the Jazz offense with his aggressiveness and ability to bend the defense. He had a season high in points as part of a nice 34-4-4 line. Also deserving mention: Gobert keyed a great defensive turnaround and also tipped in what felt like the clinching points. Trent Forrest had a nice stretch in the second half, and Joe Ingles directed things with nine assists to go with 15 timely points. 

Strong in Defeat:

• Jazz 104, Wolves 105: Mike Conley. In a second straight close loss to Minny without Mitchell, this time it was Conley’s turn to carry the Jazz. Just like the previous Saturday, Conley’s close featured some good and bad: he hit the go-ahead shot, but also turned the ball over on the decisive possession. He finished with a 26-9-7 line and almost stole back a game the Jazz really didn’t have much business winning. Turns out this good performance was costly: Conley reaggravated his sore hamstring while carrying the heavy load, and has not played since.
• Jazz 100, Suns 121: Bojan Bogdanovic. Almost by default. Nobody played great in Phoenix, but Bogey had 22 points on 11 shots, the only Jazz ball handler to put up an efficient night. Gobert and Favors were efficient, but got just four shots apiece against the Suns’ aggressive defense.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action.

The Jazz have another 4-in-6 this week, but all at home.

Monday 5/3, Jazz vs. Spurs: The Spurs come to Salt Lake City after three straight losses, and on a tough back-to-back after they lost in overtime on Sunday night at home. Starting with the Sunday game against Philly, 10 of their final 11 games are against top-10 teams (by winning percentage) – just a brutal, brutal close. To make matters worse, Derrick White may be done for the year and Dejounte Murray is dealing with knee soreness. DeMar DeRozan and former Utah Ute Jakob Poeltl both rested on Sunday, so they may be fresher than some of their teammates on the second of a back-to-back.

Wednesday 5/5, Jazz vs. Spurs: A bit more on the Spurs, whom the Jazz will face in consecutive games: they are almost perfectly average on offense, but slightly above-average on defense. That’s largely because they do a good job limiting opponent threes. They do allow teams to get to the rim, but they allow the third-lowest percentage once opponents get there. The Jazz blew them out in the only other meeting this year, largely because Bogdanovic was on fire (6/7) and because San Antonio couldn’t score in the halfcourt against the Gobert-led defense (74.6 points per 100 halfcourt plays).

Friday 5/7, Jazz vs. Nuggets: A week ago, it looked like the Nuggets might be comfortably slotted at No. 4 by the time of this game and they wouldn’t really need it for seeding purposes. But the Jamal Murray-less Nuggets just keep winning, and now they’re locked in a tight battle for the third seed. Behind likely MVP winner Nikola Jokic, they’ve got the league’s fourth best offense, powered by the second-best percentage at the rim and on corner threes. They’re ridiculously tough, even if the Murray injury has a real cost that could come into focus in a playoff series. (Jokic and Murray were +11.8 together, but all lineups with Jokic and no Murray are -0.9 in non-garbage minutes.)

Saturday 5/8, Jazz vs. Rockets: There are no sure things int he NBA, but this is about the closest thing the Jazz have to a sure thing on their remaining schedule. The Rockets have eight guys on the injured list, have lost 17 of 20 overall, and are in the bottom four on both ends of the court. They are 5-39 since February 6. They are in rough shape. Utah should be able to get this one as long as they take the game seriously.

Random stuff from the Jazz community.

The Jazz officially clinched a top-4 seed over the weekend, which will mark the first time they’ve opened the playoffs at home since 2001. They were technically a 4-seed twice in the mid 2000s, but the seeding rules were different then regarding division winners and homecourt, so Utah got the bump to No. 4 even though they were the road team in their first-round series in both of those seasons.

So what were the Jazz up to the last time a Utah team hosted a playoff opener?

Mitchell was a few months away from his fifth birthday. Conley and Ingles were in junior high school (or what they called secondary school in Ingles’ case). Gobert was still two years away from posing for this picture, and Udoka Azubuike was about a year and a half old. Quin Snyder was in his second year as Missouri’s head coach, and was fresh off being sent home from the NCAA tournament by his alma mater and former employer, Duke.

At that point in human history, 9/11 was just a date, the word “iPhone” didn’t exist, and hit singer Billie Eilish wasn’t born yet. We hadn’t met Shrek yet, and the Lord of the Rings was still just a book.

In other words, try to stop and enjoy this every now and then. This is already a historically successful Jazz season.

That’s another week in the Jazz realm for you. Two more to go before the playoffs.