Salt City Seven: Young Bigs, Flip’s Tweaks & More

Filipowski is scoring in bunches and shooting much better. (Terrance Williams via stlrib.com)

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick exploration of a big-picture topic

With the Jazz’s veterans sitting more often of late, the on-court product has increasingly featured Utah’s collection of recent draft swings. Some of the young seven appear farther along than others, naturally, but this week’s SC7 will start with words about the two who are looking closest to being able to help a good team win basketball games. And it makes sense to talk about them together since their destinies and minutes are intertwined to some degree.

Perhaps ironically, the guys drawing the most chatter for their precocious games and impacts are the lone second-round pick in the bunch, and the player Utah didn’t draft at all because he was chosen by Minnesota before a Jazz-Wolves trade was fully crystalized.

Walker Kessler quite simply has dominated the paint lately. Sometimes you can tell who the best players are on the court because they have the ball a ton or pile up counting stats, but sometimes you can tell who they are because of the way they change everything about how the other nine do business. When Kessler has been on the court lately, you can physically see how the opposing offenses bend around his presence, or how many guys rivals have to involve in the rebounding effort.

It goes beyond the historical stat lines; Kessler is just playing with a whole different level of awareness and verve. It doesn’t even necessarily show up as loudly in his on-court stats because, well, he plays with a lot of guys who are less defensively sound. But you can see it manifested in some of the same places as during his rookie season — like his elite rim protection stats. Only Victor Wembanyama, Jarrett Allen and Rudy Gobert share roughly Kessler’s volume of rim contests and hold opponents to a lower percentage in that area than his 53.9%. And that’s just on the 345 rim attempts he’s challenged.

Overall defensive FG% numbers are subject to high luck variance, but when a sample size is large enough it’s probably worth believing. Tracking cameras have determined that Kessler was the closest defender on 945 shots so far, and held the shooter 5.2 percentage points below expected field goal percentage. The only players who impact shooters more on even 650+ attempts are past DPOY winner Jaren Jackson Jr. (-6.5 on 749 attempts guarded) and Wembanyama (-6.6 on 848), the DPOY frontrunner until his season was derailed by a blood clot.

Teams get slightly fewer rim shots off during his minutes, and Utah’s halfcourt defense is more stingy (by 6.4 points per 100 halfcourt plays). On the other end, his good hands have translated to a league-leading offensive rebounding rate, and to the best qualifying field goal percentage in, oh, ever.

Kessler shares a position (or at least overlaps in position) with the other ahead-of-schedule young guy, although the two are very different types of centers.

Kyle Filipowski has seized the available minutes to the tune of 22.5 points and 8.3 rebounds per outing over his last four. Early on, his pathway to minutes was a pretty skillful knack for reading the court. Now, he’s looking like much more than a clever passer. More than anything, it’s the shooting that has now allowed the Jazz to think about a very different type of prospect. A 26% outside shooter through early January, Flip just found his shot overnight.

From 26% in his first 27-game sample, Flip jumped to 47.6% in the next 27 games exactly. You won’t find many in-season turnarounds as stark as that one.

The biggest change has come because the Jazz have leaned into what he’s good at instead of pigeon-holing him as a corner shooter. Teams often start working with improving (read: subpar) shooters out in the corners because it’s a slightly shorter shot. But for whatever reason, it’s just harder for some guys than the shot out front. Maybe it’s the visual guide they get from looking at the backboard, or how defenders close out differently, or some other weird nuance. Either way, it appears to be the case with Flip: he’s a 43% shooter from above the break over the course of the season — and since January 12, that’s 57.7%, on a 52-shot sample.

Outside shooting is going to be especially important for Flip because  — honesty alert — he doesn’t really protect the rim at all. There aren’t a lot of pathways to major minutes when you’re a big who shoots below 30% from outside and doesn’t really affect paint attempts at the other end — even with the smart passing.

Having an outside shot enabled him to find minutes at the 5 or at the 4, where his 70% rim FG% allowed won’t be as limiting.

That’s why it’s interesting that Walker and Filipowski have been playing more together. Results are mixed, but it’s a worthy experiment. The efficiency differential (-8.6 outside of garbage time and heaves) looks poor because Kessler-Flip lineups can’t score, but some of that is because that’s a look that has mostly been deployed of late in youth-heavy scenarios. Pair those two with Lauri Markkanen, for example, and the net rating flips to +11.0, with an elite offense in 94 possessions thus far.

The fact that the Kessler-Flip combos are defensively above average on the aggregate is a good sign that Filipowski can exist in a defensive ecosystem where he’s not the paint anchor.

Right now, these two are the Jazz youngsters with the clearest path to being rotation players on a good team. Walker could probably average 24 minutes on a playoff team this season, and Filipowski isn’t far off if the 27-game shooting sample turns out to be real, in combination with his vision, passing and rebounding. Each of the young guards/wings has intriguing qualities, too. Isaiah Collier will be a rotation player for a long time if he can improve his shooting and/or defense, Keyonte George if he can address the efficiency stuff and game management, and so forth.

But you don’t have to squint to picture Filipowski in something pretty close to his current form helping a playoff team. And Kessler is already a starting-caliber NBA center.

Telling or interesting words from Jazz people

Behind Filipowski’s shooting improvement was a conversation with his coach about tweaks to his shooting process. But, as Sarah Todd detailed here, that conversation was from from dictatorial.

“[Filipowski] and I sat down and had just an honest conversation about where he’s at, where he’s going. But ultimately, it was Kyle’s decision. I recognize that he has to play in the games, and there’s going to be the psychological barriers that show up at different times, and so it needs to be his decision so that he’s really invested in the work and doesn’t feel like it’s something that’s being pushed on him.”

-Will Hardy, on his dialogue with Filipowski on his shooting mechanics

“Player’s coach” can often be a pejorative term that implies a lack of accountability. That’s far from Hardy’s modus operandi, as he’s fierce about demanding a lot from his players. But one of the things that I think separates Hardy from his recent predecessors is the amount of empathy he has about all the human processes and emotional dynamics behind everything guys are being asked to do.

This is one example, but in nearly every media availability he demonstrates that he’s very mindful of how his messages and philosophies land on his audience. And in this case, the fact that he approached the conversation in a way that was not at all autocratic actually helped the message get through.

“I was just grateful that he gave me the option,” Filipowski recalled to Todd. “He said, ‘this is what I think we should do. But let me hear your thoughts.”

Stats that tell the story of the week

1

Heading into their game with Boston, there are nine Western Conference teams the Jazz cannot mathematically catch, and Dallas needs just a single win (or Jazz loss) to ensure Utah can’t surpass them. That means Utah’s “tragic number” for being mathematically elimited from playoff contention is down to just one.

6 (28)

Of the 15 times this NBA season that a team has exceeded 25 turnovers, six of them have been the Jazz… including the 28 turnovers on Monday night against Detroit, the primary reason this game was never really competitive after a 36-22 first quarter.

11

Collier was named Western Conference Rookie of the Month since our last edition, so it behooves me to mention that he has now had more double-digit assist games (11) than any rookie since Ja Morant in 2019-20, who had 16.

2-23

That’s Utah’s record when they fail to hit 45 paint points in a game, including on Sunday in Philadelphia, where they only managed 40.

8

Kessler’s 8-block performance in Toronto was a career high, but it was also his 25th game with 5+ swats since entering the league in 2022-23. The only player with more such games over that span is Victor Wembanyama.

<25

Here’s a wild stat: in Jazz-Raptors, the two teams combined for 16 players under 25 who played at least 18 minutes in the game, the most of any NBA game this season. Days earlier, in Jazz-Wiz, there were 13 such players.

Dissecting a Jazz scoring play from the week

We might as well stick with the theme and watch Utah’s young bigs collaborate in Canada.

This starts with Collier putting pressure on the defense in simple middle P&R. Because Kessler and Filipowski are both on the court, Utah uses the latter to screen and has Kessler space by going not to the corner or the “dunker” spot, but just kind of loitering outside the paint in case he needs to buy Cody Williams some time with an off-ball pick.

Toronto’s sort of half-showing at the level of the screen, but Scottie Barnes never really comes in to hedge fully. So instead they bring a third guy to pinch the driving line with a stunt from the top, but that means you’ve now put a good passer in a congested area with lots of wide open teammates around him. Honestly, when Collier picks up the ball, he could easily fling it up to Kessler, but the flip back to Filipowski is probably the correct read since all three defenders chasing the ball have their momentum doing toward the baseline.

That momentum means Flip’s eventual defender comes at him with a sloppy closeout, but even still, it shouldn’t be this easy for him to smoke 6-foot-6 AJ Lawson from a standstill without so much as a screen. Castleton flies at Flip for a late contest, and Barnes stays guarding precisely nobody, so Flip just dumps it off to Kessler, who stayed in about the same 5-foot radius on the whole play.

This showcases why the attributes that make the pairing kinda work: Kessler’s size and vertical spacing, Filipowski’s handles and vision, all combined with a guard who isn’t afraid to get into the teeth of the defense and make guys react to him.  

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win

There were some solid performances this week, but all came in Jazz losses.

Strong in defeat:

• Jazz 106, Pistons 134: Kyle Filipowski. The rookie was easily the Jazz’s most productive player in this one, with 25 and 8 on great shooting, including a 20-point second half. Collin Sexton had 11 in the first half while the game was still somewhat within reach (and 16 overall), and Kessler had 14 and 9, but nobody else made it remotely close. 
• Jazz 122, Wizards 125: Johnny Juzang. It was another solid night for Flip (25 and 13), but it feels like we should recognize Juzang’s career high-tying night. He had 27 in all, including a 9-point first quarter and another 13 in the fourth quarter of a winnable game. Collier finished with 19-6-6 despite some early struggles.
• Jazz 109, Raptors 118: Walker Kessler. What a ridiculous performance by Kessler. If it weren’t for 25 TOs and for Immanuel Quickley breaking his previous season high by nine points, the Jazz might have won this one and Kessler would be getting more love for an insane stat line: 18 points (8/11 from the field), 25 boards, 8 blocks, numbers nobody else has put up in the last 30+ years. The poor Toronto bigs just had no answer for him. Nobody else was close to Kessler’s impact, but George also had 18 points (plus 8 assists and 6 boards) and Flip and Sexton each added 17.
• Jazz 122, Sixers 126: Kyle Filipowski. George’s 17-point fourth helped make this one interesting late, and Collier posted his 11th double-digit assist game, but Flip set the tone early and often in this one. Utah’s best stretch was with the rookie big hitting shots, grabbing boards, and even dishing a little. He had a dozen points after one quarter, finished the game with 25-7-3 (and three steals), and even canned his own two late 3-pointers to make it a 1-possession game in the final 10 seconds. George is a close second. Juzang also started strong (13 by halftime) but was scarcely heard from after the break.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of action

It’s another 4-game week for the Jazz, who have a positively packed March:

• Monday, March 10: Jazz @ Celtics. Boston is a winning machine, at 10-2 since they humbled the Knicks in early February. But really, pick just about any slice of the regular season schedule and you’ll find a pretty lofty success rate for the defending champs. They’re a top-5 offense and defense, and Jayson Tatum is once again one his way to another first-team All-NBA selection with 27-9-6 averages. Kristaps Porzingis has missed the last five, but other than that, this is a healthy team… and a buzzsaw.
• Wednesday, March 12: Jazz @ Grizzlies. Memphis had control of the No. 2 seed until a 3-8 funk, but visits to injury-riddled Dallas and New Orleans have helped them right the ship for now. They have their own health woes to deal with (most notably Jaren Jackson Jr.’s ankle), so it’s not great timing for them that the Jazz matchup falls in the middle of a 5-in-7 stretch. The Jazz are 0-2 against these guys so far this year, even though 21-ppg scorer Morant has only averaged 16.5 vs. Utah. 
• Friday, March 14: Jazz vs. Raptors. Exactly one week after their visit to Canada, the Jazz get a Raptors rematch, although the teams could look different. Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick with both certainly still be out, but the rest of Toronto’s walking wounded are listed day-to-day, including Quickley (who burned the Jazz on Friday and then took Saturday off) and former Jazz guard Ochai Agbaji. The Raptors have split their last eight, and 15 of their final 18 games will be against sub-.500 teams.
• Sunday, March 16: Jazz @ Wolves. The Jazz last tasted victory against these same Timberwolves, although Anthony Edwards’ suspension surely helped: they are 5-0 since then, with Ant averaging 26 on 51-41-83 shooting splits. Gobert finally made his return on Sunday, posting 16 & 8 in his first action since the All-Star break, meaning Minny’s formidable front eight is back intact. They’re 23-15 with their preferred starting five, 13-14 with all other versions.

Random stuff from the Jazz community

Squeezing this in here because there wasn’t a better place for it: the updated pick watch picture.

Utah’s pick outlook with 18 games left.

Minnesota’s chances of handing Utah a second lottery pick are fading as they have gone 5-0 since falling to the Jazz during Edwards’ suspension, and they just got Gobert back. Plus, struggles by Dallas and the Clippers have given them a cushion.

But Utah’s own pick is still looking fairly promising as the byproduct of a 3-12 stretch and a ton of rest for the veterans.

There’s just over a month left now in the regular season.