Salt City Seven: Playoff Picture, Mitchell On the Record, Roster Options & More

Mitchell’s play of late has given Jazz fans a lot to clap about. (Rachel Rydalch, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Every Monday (or in this case Tuesday) during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

Keeping track of the Jazz’s place in the wild, wild West.

We’re going out of order this week so we can reintroduce one of our favorite spring traditions: the playoff race graphic that you’ll see here and on Twitter over the final seven weeks of the NBA season.

We generally debut these starting after the All-Star break, which this year happened to fall almost exactly at the three-quarter mark of the season. So with 21 to 24 games left for every Western Conference crew, let’s see how it’s shaking out. 

The shape of the playoff race as of the All-Star break.

Even with the dispiriting Chris Paul news, the Suns’ hold on the top spot feel fairly safe. Golden State could theoretically close the gap if they were themselves fully healthy, but they’re 14-11 this year when Steph Curry or Draymond Green sits, and the latter made it sound during All-Star weekend like he’s still several weeks away. If anything, Memphis might have its eyes on making a run at No. 2.

The Jazz have an outside chance at catching Memphis, but it would take some doing, because the Grizzlies’ post break schedule is the softest of any team in the top nine. That’s why multiple predictive systems — like B-Ref’s playoff probabilities report, FiveThirtyEight, and Inpredictable.com — all have Utah pretty comfortably slated at fourth.

If that’s how it’s bound to shake out — Utah as the fourth seed — then the biggest thing for Utah fans to obsess over in the next seven weeks is who winds up fifth. With rumors out that both Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. could be back in time for the playoffs, it may be time to start rooting for Denver to stay sixth and away from Utah’s half of the bracket. On the other hand, what sane person would want to face Luka Doncic, already a game-bending, all-league superstar at 22?

Then there are second-round implications, too. If you’re the Jazz, would you rather face Phoenix somewhat early, when Paul is just getting back into form? Or is avoiding them until as late as possible still the better stratagem? If Paul is still hurt during the April 12-14 play-in tournament, that could make the notion of losing the first play-in game a lot more palatable to whoever lands in the 7th and 8th spots, too.

Utah has a lot of work left to do against other top-8 Western squads, but so do the Warriors, and to a lesser extent the Suns and Mavs.

Bottom line: it’s just getting started. Even though there’s at least a 1.5-game cushion separating each pair of teams all the way down to No. 11, the health questions and disparate schedule strengths mean we could still a fair amount of jockeying. Let’s get to it!

In their own words

“I think it’s interesting that, you know, that stuff happens and him and I have never played at this high of a level together, since we’ve been here. For a group that hates each other, man, we’re playing pretty well. And we can be even better.”

-Donovan Mitchell, on Chris Haynes’ Posted Up podcast

The past seven days were light on actual basketball, so the biggest story of the week centered on yet another round of speculation on the future of the Jazz’s core. Mitchell joined Haynes for a lengthy conversation to clarify his frame of mind when it comes to the persistent rumors that the Jazz are on the clock before the star guard asks for a change in scenery, or that his relationship with fellow Jazz All-Star Rudy Gobert remains strained.

Not so, says Mitchell: “We’re looking to do bigger things… and like I said, it starts with me and big fella. If we want to win a championship, it’s going to start with us. We know that.”

Mitchell repeatedly insisted that his relationship with Gobert is in a good place — at least as teammates, a qualification he added a time or two during the conversation.

“You don’t always gotta be the ‘bestest’ of friends with people you work with,” Mitchell clarified, “but at the end of the day if you work towards a common goal that’s beneficial to the team, that’s what’s first. We want to win.”

It’s also pretty interesting that Mitchell processes the current state of the Jazz as playing their highest level of basketball during his career. It doesn’t always feel that way to fans because of cycling injury issues, frustrating collapses, and just the inherent inconsistencies that come over the course of 82 games. But per the quote above, Mitchell still thinks the Jazz are “playing pretty well.” That’s important, because Utah’s best shot at keeping him beyond (or even through) this current contract is if the 25-year-old feels like this is the situation that gets him the best shot at his goals. At least for now, that’s where Mitchell appears to be focused.

“I’m here man, let’s work.”

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

The Jazz made a small roster move on Wednesday, adding 6-foot-5 wing Xavier Sneed into the second two-way slot that has been vacant since they waived Malik Fitts earlier this season. That still leaves an open 15th spot on the regular roster, so let’s look at their options there.

After performing well on 10-day contracts, defensive guard Danuel House Jr. signed a rest-of-season deal to stay in Utah. His became the 14th standard contract, and the Jazz can go up to 15, but House isn’t the same level of playmaker as the departed Joe Ingles, whose rotation spot he seems to have assumed, so that could leave Utah light on facilitators if they have to weather an injury to Mitchell, Mike Conley Jr. or Jordan Clarkson.

One place the Jazz may look for guard/wing help is on the buyout market, but it’s unclear if there are great answers there. Veteran point guard Goran Dragic just agreed to finish the season with Brooklyn, although that signing did make the tough-but-diminutive Jevon Carter available. The Bucks picked up DeAndre’ Bembry, an improving shooter. The Gary Harris fit remains obvious, but it’s unclear if the Magic are at all interested in setting him loose, and even if they do, there will be a long list of courters, starting with the team that drafted him. It appeared as though the Nuggets’ star big man took a moment at the close of last week’s Nuggets-Magic game to let Harris know he’d be welcomed back. Harris is pretty loved there, and there would definitely be a role and minutes for him. The Celtics have also been connected to Harris in the rumor mill. The reality is that he’s good enough on both ends to instantly have a rotation role carved out for him with nearly any contender — including the Jazz. D.J. Augustin is still available if the Jazz just want a veteran point guard for emergency playmaking.

Big man options are similarly scarce. Thad Young never reached the buyout market because Toronto pounced on a deadline-week deal. Drew Eubanks has signed on with Portland for now, Tristan Thompson quickly signed on with Chicago, and rumored 2021 Jazz target Robin Lopez is part of that same Orlando team that may or may not be interested in buying its veterans out. Enes Freedom might be the best available free agent big man, and it’s unlikely the Jazz go there, given their history with the former No. 3 overall pick.

For a buyout candidate to be eligible for the Jazz’s playoff roster, he would have to be waived by his current team by next Tuesday.

Having said all that, it’s fairly likely that the Jazz’s best option for that 15th spot is already in their locker room: signing Trent Forrest to a standard deal might be their best realistic move.

Forrest is currently on a two-way deal, but such players are typically barred from participating in the playoffs. The NBA temporarily suspended that rule in the last two postseasons due to COVID-19 absences, but there’s no indication the league plans to allow two-ways to log playoff minutes this year. Forrest has played a substantive role over the course of the year — he has appeared in 46 games this season, and has averaged eight points and three assists in the past month — so the Jazz may decide that having him available in the postseason offers more than any players they can realistically land externally.

If the Jazz were to sign a veteran with two or more years of prior NBA experience to a contract starting March 1, that player would cost them $393K in salary and another $983K in money paid into the league’s luxury tax system. If they were to sign a 1-year veteran like Forrest, the salary would only cost them $351K, but would still be taxed as though he were an older vet. (A rookie signing would only cost them $218K plus the same $983K in taxes, but I doubt the Jazz go that route; if they sign someone to that spot over Forrest, it will be someone they think can help them right away.)

If the Jazz want to reward Forrest with a standard deal and also add help from the free agent market, they’d have to waive another guy. But most of their current players have guaranteed money into next season or, in Eric Paschall’s case, restricted free agent rights. The only three who don’t meet one of those conditions are House, Juancho Hernangomez¹ and Hassan Whiteside.

The expectation here is that the Jazz will take the simplest answer: signing Forrest to a standard deal, maybe with an option or a partial guarantee for next season. If the Jazz do something splashier than that, it will be because something unexpected fell in their lap.

Stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week.

+13.9

Now that the Jazz have had House back in the fold for a week, we can peep the early returns on the new version of what Zach Lowe lovingly calls Utah’s “slow jams” lineup. The hybrid group that spans the quarter breaks was in need of a remodel after Ingles left, and so far the answer has been to slide House in next to Gobert, Conley, Paschall and Jordan Clarkson. This new group has only played 36 possessions together, and it’s also worth noting that Rudy Gay will probably take some or all of those minutes back from Paschall whenever he’s healed up from knee soreness. But, caveats aside, so far that lineup looks goooooood: +13.9, with an offense in the 88th percentile and a defense — this is important — in the 96th. That’s right, this group holds opponents to 102.8 points per 100, far below the rate of the league’s best defensive team. 

185.7

The Jazz’s collapse in Los Angeles on Wednesday was about as bad a 6-minute stretch as you can have. Their effective field goal percentage cratered to 31.8% on offense, and on the other end they allowed 26 points on the final 14 Laker possessions — a DRtg of 185.7 over that span. As I posted that night, the breakdowns weren’t really specific to the Lakers’ lineup formation, but that was still about as bad of a 6-minute stretch of defense as you can possibly play.

140.6

On the other hand, the offense in Monday’s home win over Houston was the most potent version we’ve seen all season.  The Jazz’s 140.6 points per 100 possessions in that game were the 10th best mark by any NBA team in a game this season. 

50-43-86

Those are Mitchell’s shooting splits in the six games since he returned from a lengthy concussion-related absence. He’s also averaging 30-7-6 per 36 minutes over that span.

.580

Since the trade deadline, Clarkson is holding right on his season average for points — 15.7, compared to 15.5 for the year — but is doing it on .580 true shooting. He has still been struggling from three (29%), but when Clarkson attacks decisively, selectively and efficiently, he helps the Jazz a great deal. He also has seven assists to just one turnover since then. Maybe the stability of knowing he’ll be here has helped him dial in to some degree.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

Just one imaginary orb to give out this week, and it was never really in question who was getting it.

Jazz 135, Rockets 101: Donovan Mitchell. A cool 30-6-7 night for Don, including two points per every shot attempt. Bojan Bogdanovic rightly got some credit for busting the game open early, but even that aspect of the game had Mitchell’s fingerprints on it: the All-Star assisted three of Bogey’s five first-quarter buckets. The Jazz never trailed by fewer than 10 points after the first quarter break, partially because Mitchell just read the game perfectly. He did the bulk of his passing while guarded by alleged Mitchell-stopper Eric Gordon, and then carved up switches for the majority of his own buckets. Gobert was also very good against a mostly 5-out opponent, Clarkson had an efficient night, and Conley had one of the best 1-for-8 games you’ll ever see. All three bench bigs — Paschall, Whiteside and Udoka Azubuike — reached double figures as Utah pounded it inside to punish Houston’s schemes.

Strong in Defeat:

• Jazz 101, Lakers 106: Donovan Mitchell. Another easy call for Spida: 37 points, five assists and four steals. On an off night for Conley and with Bogey struggling, Mitchell took over and the results were mostly pretty spectacular. He had 35 points on 18 shots going into those final six minutes, when the Lakers started making changes to get the ball out of his hands and/or make him shoot over bodies. He closed 1-for-6, and the reality is that if he goes 2-for-6 the Jazz probably win that game and we’re talking about Mitchell’s brilliance. 

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action.

The Jazz will continue to rest and relax for the next few days before resuming their season this weekend.

Friday 2/25, Jazz vs. Mavericks: It’s not very common to see a team just a game and a half out of a top-4 seed and built around an All-NBA superstar make a resoundingly win-later trade in season, but that’s precisely what Dallas did just a week and a half ago. But to understand their desire to move on from Kristaps Porzingis for two of the most expendable Wizards, consider this: they are 16-9 this season in games Porzingis didn’t play (including their 3-1 record since the surprising deadline-day move). There’s a chance Porzingis, for all his talent, was just not the right complement for Doncic, who had a -0.7 efficiency differential this season when tethered to the Latvian big man, +6.5 without him. As for the Jazz, this will be the first time they see Luka this year, as he sat out Utah’s 120-116 home win on Christmas Day. Doncic should play on Friday, but Tim Hardaway Jr. is out long-term, and five other Mavs went into the break nursing minor injuries.

Sunday 2/27, Jazz @ Suns: Both Mitchell and Gobert missed the first two Jazz-Suns encounters, as did Phoenix frontcourt mates Jae Crowder and DeAndre Ayton. This looked like it might finally be the first real full-strength battle between potential Western Conference contenders, and then… Crap! Chris Paul’s avulsion fracture in his thumb will sideline him for at least 6-8 weeks (the playoffs start in eight weeks). Of course, the Jazz will still have to find an answer for Devin Booker, who in the last three calendar years has had games of 59, 43, 35, 33 and 31 against Utah. Teams that can hit the midrange shots the Jazz will concede can test Utah’s schemes, and even without Paul, the Suns have five healthy players who have shot 45% or better on at least 50 midrange attempts this year. (The Jazz this season are a pretty pedestrian 11-9 in games where their opponent makes that mark or better on all twos outside of four feet.)

Random stuff from the Jazz community.

Whoa, is that new Jazzman Juancho Hernangomez starring opposite Adam Sandler in a straight-to-Netflix drama about making it to the NBA? Sure is.

pic.twitter.com/1oESq7bB5h

— Adam Sandler (@AdamSandler) February 18, 2022

Also, since we didn’t mention it elsewhere this week, congrats to Gobert and Mitchell! Even though Mitchell didn’t play (due to an upper respiratory illness), Sunday’s All-Star game counts as his third selection. And Gobert did play, blessing the highlight reel with a trailer dunk in transition, a steal-to-dunk sequence in the early second quarter, and then a cutting 360-degree special.

Twenty-four left. Having fun yet?