Salt City Seven: Could THT Be Core, Dissecting Agbaji, Standings Watch & More

Horton-Tucker’s ability to bully his way to the rim helped Utah to a 2-1 week. (Chris Carlson via sltrib.com)

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

Jazz coach Will Hardy said Talen Horton-Tucker was the “story of the game” after the physical guard had a near triple-double on Saturday. With all due respect to Hardy, that might be an understatement. THT is likely the story of the week after posting three straight 20-plus performances for the first time in his career. Since February 8, when his workload increased as the result of a midseason trade, he’s averaging 15.7 points and 6.0 assists per outing.

Horton-Tucker might look like the O.G. at your local pickup game with his throwback style and his, uh, body type… but he’s 22. If he were the age he looks, it would be easy to regard his positive play as another nice bit of basketball from someone who is, in the broader context of the rebuild, somewhat disposable. But at his age, this recent outburst makes it fair to wonder exactly what would have to happen developmentally for the young guard to be considered a key part of the long-term project.

Most of this impressive spurt has been the byproduct of his most solid NBA skill: he’s an absolute jackhammer when he decides to penetrate. He has generated more than half his points this season (287 of his 487 total) as a driver, and since the Jazz promoted him up the depth chart 13 games ago, he has gone from scoring 3.9 points per game resulting from drives to 9.8.

As a driver, he spins, bangs and stutters like some old-school wizard. Because of his body control and burliness, guard-sized defenders often melt off of him after the slightest nudge, or get locked behind his rather large posterior asset. Those physical finishes give him an advantage driving with or without a screen, and mask an unexceptional first step. He even routinely looks unbothered by bigger help men, especially if they come into the picture late.

That type of whenever-you-need-it shot creation is a scarce and valuable NBA skill. Just as important is how consistent he has been about creating opportunities for others. It’s not any one thing, either. Sometimes it’s those same bully-ball drives that panics defenses into collapsing around him and leaving shooters/cutters. But he’s also been opportunistic about kicking the ball ahead on breaks, or even running dribble-handoffs to capitalize on the fact that teams sometimes give him some space when he’s on the perimeter.

The Jazz have had the ball in his hands a LOT this past month, partly out of necessity. Injuries to Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson drive some of that need, but also THT’s lack of outside shooting basically means he has to have the ball or there’s little reason for defenses to guard him. It’s honestly why he went from not playing at all to having the ball on nearly every possession: he’s just not that useful away from the basketball at present.

The problem is that type of player is still pretty schemable if the shooting isn’t addressed before the Jazz get back to worrying about playoff success again. If you were zeroed in on the Jazz for a two-week series, you’d have plenty of options to slow down that type of player: go under every ball screen, try bigger bodies on him, and flash some late help right when he inevitably unsheathes his left-to-right pirouette move.

And regardless, it’s not the best idea to commit a huge chunk of your offense to a non-star player who has to have the ball all the time. Eventually they’ll aim to put another primary piece alongside All-Star Lauri Markkaenen, and then the idea will be to build based on what complements those two. And that unfortunately means not investing long-term in guys who have to have the basketball in order to avoid being an offensive liability. Or just force other guys to handle and play 5-on-4 defense.

With a more reliable jumper, Horton-Tucker could become a more complementary piece, and it’s worth noting that his 3-point shooting is also up to 36% since the trade. That’s respectable, but we’re also talking about a 46-shot sample size, compared against his 28% shooting across 472 career attempts. If he could somehow hang in the mid-30s, that’s enough to where he could play off-ball next to whatever Utah’s future star core looks like, while also being around as a backup ball handler with wrecking-ball drives that could be pretty meaningful to second units.

That’s a big if, but that’s where things are at right now for Horton-Tucker. He’s not good enough in the midrange to be a full-time ball handler with an ability to pick apart all defenses. His shot diet is OK overall, but he still has a tendency to spin and/or step back into some pretty cringey long twos, including with time on the clock to go after something better.

I mean, whatever. If you’re going to loosen the reins and lean into Horton-Tucker as an initiator, you probably have to be OK with a few ill-advised pull-ups along the way. But this is part of why future playoff defenses might not quiver at the thought of THT coming off the pick-and-roll against a drop big.

His defensive all-in stats are actually a bit mixed depending on what you trust, which is appropriate because the eye test also offers conflicting results. He can guard different positions without getting bullied, but his defensive mobility isn’t great and you’d think his 7’2″ wingspan would enable him to come up with more steals or strips. So he’ll never be a top-6 rotation guy on a great team based solely on the defensive side of the ball. Again, his future role on a contender probably comes down to whether he develops that shot.

So where does all that leave us on the question of whether THT’s improved play could be meaningful to the Jazz’s long-term plans?

You still don’t hear Horton-Tucker’s name in the same breath as Markkanen, Sexton or the first-round rookies when in-the-know folks are rattling off potential future pieces. Perhaps that’s due in part to his 15-month contract duration: Horton-Tucker probably picks up an $11 million option this summer, which makes him a free agent in 2024. He’ll be 23 at that point, but also a 5-year vet with nearly 300 career games and tons of meaningful reps. That feels like a profile that will entice some team to take a look and spending some exception money on him — or more if there’s offensive progress between now and then.

Or it could just come down to the fact that until he addresses some of his limitations, it’s harder to imagine him as a complementary, off-ball role player. Unless he figures out how to sustain what he’s been doing to become a star in his own right, at some point the Jazz will need to re-fashion his role to support an ecosystem with (hopefully) a couple of legitimate all-around threats. Whether or not they can do that comes down to skill development on the 22-year-old’s part.

Either way, it’s always fun to see a player’s strengths unleashed to the degree we’ve seen from #0 over the past week. Whatever this winds up meaning to the future Jazz, THT has already made himself look like a worthy gamble, especially since all Utah gave up to get a look at him was a 34-year-old who didn’t fit the timeline.

Key stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week

3

The Jazz have just three of their 14 remaining games against teams with below-.500 records, and two of those — OKC and Portland — look like they’re at least trying. In other words, it could be a turbulent finish.

+20.3

With Clarkson and Sexton out, Utah’s makeshift starting five has been their usual frontcourt trio starting with THT and Ochai Agbaji. That fivesome is remarkably +20.3 per 100 possessions this season, albeit on just 157 shared possessions. We’ll keep an eye on that.

57%

Simone Fontecchio had a 9-for-15 weekend, and is averaging 10.6 points on 57% true shooting over his last five. But that nice run comes on the heels of a tremendous struggle for the Italian rookie: he shot 25% and 17% from deep in his previous 18 outings. It’s definitely encouraging to see him play his way out of that massive slump.

3-14

The Jazz are 3-14 in their worst 3-point shooting performances of the season (and 30-21 when they shoot at least 36% rounded). The bad news for them is that as a team they’re converting just 31% on outside shots dating back to February 3. Prior to that date they made 37% of their threes.

53%

That was Utah’s field goal percentage in Charlotte if you remove Markkanen’s 3-for-22 night. It was such a weird clunker for the All-Star, who’s been so remarkably consistent and yet could hardly get anything to go on Saturday. Fortunately for Utah, they got 15-of-19 shooting from the other starting frontcourt players and an unbelievable night from Horton-Tucker, and they survived Markkanen’s 15.9% effective field goal percentage, less than half his previous worst shooting output this season.

Projecting the Jazz’s place in the bigger picture

Just when it seemed clear that the Jazz were trending away from the playoffs, they find themselves back in 9th by virtue of a 4-team tie.

EC play-in teams Miami (7) and Atlanta (8) are also within 3 games of the Jazz.

Utah has by far the toughest schedule of the Western Conference teams, especially the other three squads deadlocked with them at 33-35. The Jazz have twice as many games left against teams with top-10 records as OKC and New Orleans, and four times as many as the Lakers.

For lottery-watching fans, the tight race between the East’s 9-11 seeds might keep all three in pursuit for now. On the other hand, Indiana appears to be throwing the white flag, with two starters and two key reserves resting in their visit to Detroit. (Indy won anyway, because Detroit is Detroit.) Things are not looking great for Portland right now, at 3-8 since mid-Feb and with Damian Lillard hurt again.

Looking at the Xs and Os behind a successful play.

Longtime reader John made it known that he misses the X-and-O breakdowns that used to be part of the Salt City Seven, so I decided to bring it back for at least a week.

This one features a nice bit of scripted action as part of a “blob” play design, or baseline out-of-bounds. But just as impressive as what was scrawled on the clipboard is the way Ochai Agbaji dares to improvise and make a smart play against a short clock.

The core action here is a set piece that’s drawn up for a corner three. We’ll call it a “fake stagger flex” and you’ll see variations of it in need-a-three situations across the NBA and college hoops. The setup is made to look as though Rudy Gay will use the stagger screen and come to the corner for a catch, but after using Agbaji’s pick he veers into the lane instead. The Hornets switched that first pick, so Agbaji now has Gay’s man recovering to him when he heads to use that second Walker Kessler screen instead of Gay. The term flex action is more commonly used for screen-the-screener action a little closer to the paint, but this is a variation on that same philosophy, with Agbaji picking for Gay and then getting his own screen.

JT Thor frankly does a pretty good job here. Agbaji could have gone a half second earlier, while Thor is still reading the switch. Markkanen also probaby delivers the ball a beat too early here, instead of letting “Och” run full speed to his spot in the corner. Either way, the play design gave Markkanen the option of a lob to Gay, who has a smaller defender pinned low, or a pass to a good corner shooter.

But because Thor pursued well, Agbaji also makes a really smart decision t0 put it on the deck, and even trusts himself to deploy a fake despite a short clock. The ball leaves his hand with 0:00.9 on the possession clock. (Also smart of Markkanen to realize that Agbaji is improvising here, so he fades to the outside to bring Gordon Hayward away from a help position.)

This is the kind of stuff Agbaji has been really impressing with lately. One thing is hitting shots or executing drawn-up plays. But he’s confident enough now to give himself permission to riff a little within the play design based on what he’s seeing. Even the fact that Utah is using him in play designs as a movement shooter is a huge vote of confidence that seemed unlikely based on where he was a couple of months ago.

What do you think? Is bringing the X-and-O factor back into the SC7 worth it given Utah has a new coach and basketball identity? Or will you miss the “Quotable” section? Let me know on Twitter or in the comments.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz outing

A 2-1 week means we need to give out some leather.

Jazz 131, Magic 124: Simone Fontecchio. My first watch wasn’t live, so I didn’t have the benefit of stats, and I was torn between THT and Fontecchio. When I saw Markkanen’s box score, I thought I might be overcomplicating the pick here until I looked at inpredictable.com and felt emboldened by their “win probability added” numbers. Per those calculations, neither Lauri nor Talen impacted Utah’s odds of winning as much as “Tech” did. His season high-tying 17 included seven quick ones (and an assist and a steal) during a key 4th quarter stretch when the Jazz built their lead back up after blowing a 15-point margin. After his outburst, they never trailed again. THT was also big as Utah was building said early lead: he drove for three layups, assisted a triple, and connected with Kessler on an alley-oop during a third quarter run. Markkanen had 31, and the win probability MVP was actually Kessler, who punched in a 3-point play with :35 left to give Utah a 2-possession lead.

Jazz 119, Hornets 111: Talen Horton-Tucker. This one was far easier. Horton-Tucker just kind of had his way on a night he’ll remember for a long time. He was just three points off his career high and threatened to break the longest team triple-double drought in the NBA at 15-plus years. (He finished with 37-8-10, alas.) Nobody else was really close, but given the rare Markkanen stinker, we have to acknowledge Kessler (17 points, 16 boards, three blocks) and Kelly Olynyk (17 on 7-for-9 shooting) for giving Utah enough juice to hang despite the Finn’s unusual woes.

Strong in defeat:

• Jazz 116, Mavs 120: Lauri Markkanen. We robbed him of the Orlando game ball to honor the feel good story in Fontecchio, so let’s not overthink the Finnisher’s 33 points (on 20 shots). He had a huge second quarter when the Jazz were at risk of letting the game slip out of hand, and he scored or assisted on three go-ahead buckets in the fourth. THT was good again with 21, including a 10-point fourth.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action

The Jazz have a weird schedule quirk with just two games this week — but they’re both tall tasks.

Monday 3/13, Jazz @ Heat: It’s fair to wonder if this iteration of the Heat has gone as far as it can, and they’re not helping abate that feeling with their 3-6 record since the All-Star break. But overall, they’re a solid enough defense (#6 outside of garbage time) that you can’t overlook them. They have a unique defensive style, a la Milwaukee a couple seasons ago in that they are actually sorta fine allowing 3-point shots if it means they can build walls around the paint and not allow anything at the rim. Their problem is 94 feet in the other direction: they have the fifth worst location shot profile in basketball per Cleaning the Glass, and they struggle to make threes or shots in the restricted area. Miami won the other meeting in Utah, behind 32 points from Bam Adebayo.

Saturday 3/18, Jazz vs. Celtics: This is somehow the first meeting between Will Hardy and Joe Mizzulla, erstwhile Celtic benchmates who both impressed during Utah’s coaching search last summer and who are now the two youngest NBA head coaches. Boston will be on a back-to-back coming from the West (Portland), while Utah will be playing on four days of rest. Beyond the rest advantage, there’s not a lot of encouraging stuff to say here from a Jazz perspective, because Boston is for real. They’re 4th or better in both offense and defense. No other team is even top-8 in both.

Random stuff from the Jazz community

Markkanen crossed the 100-dunk threshold this week, making him one of just two players in NBA history to pile up at least 100 dunks and 180 triples in the same season. If he knocks down 10 more threes, he’ll have the most ever by a player in a 100-dunk season.

Only one player can match Markkanen’s totals this year in dunks and threes.

Nobody this season is even close to this terrain. Only 16 guys have dunked the ball 100 times, and the best outside shooters from that group all have less than a third of Markkanen’s threes: Kenyon Martin Jr. 56, Aaron Gordon 54, Giannis Antetokounmpo 42.

Or, to do the inverse operation: only 11 other players have matched Markkanen’s total of outside shots, and the only player on that list who dunks anywhere near as often as Lauri is Jayson Tatum with 80. Julius Randle (53) and Anthony Edwards (49) have roughly half of Markkanen’s dunks. Nobody else on this list has more than 30.

He’s just having a special season as a complete scoring machine.

Less than a month to go in the regular season now…