Salt City Seven: Defensive Before & After, Concentration and More

Defense has been an issue for the Jazz during a 1-4 slide (NBAE via Heat.com)

Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

Every season, the Jazz have a stretch somewhere along the way where they underperform, and we use this space to loudly remind eveybody loudly: it’s the defense. After a 1-4 stretch, it’s time to play the familiar tune again.

Even with the Jazz mired in a month-long 3-point shooting funk, defense remains the real bellwether for the team. The Jazz are consistently good when their defense is good: they’re 8-1 when the DRtg is under 110, 0-4 otherwise. Combine last season and this one and they are 47-5 (.904) under that threshold, 13-20 (.394) when the opponent manages 110 or more per 100 possessions.

But to really understand what’s happened to their vaunted defense, we really need to think of this like a before and after story. The Jazz awoke on November 5 with a 7-1 record, and top three ratings on both offense (2nd) and defense (3rd), garbage time adjusted¹. In the discouraging 10 nights since, there has certainly been some offensive slippage: the Jazz’s went from second best on that end to being ranked ninth on offense in games played since November 5. But the real letdown has been just across the midcourt line: Utah’s defense has gone from 3rd to 23rd. They’ve gone from literally having the best eFG% defense in basketball to literally having the worst²

What’s craziest about that is that they’re still forcing shots they like opponents to take. Their opponents are actually averaging fewer shots at the rim during this 1-4 span than they did across the 7-1 start, and exactly the same proportion of 3-pointers. Their location eFG% — a measure of opponent shot quality based on shot location — has actually improved.

So the change isn’t because opponents are getting better shots. They’re just making more of them. Especially in the two most efficient zones for opponents.

• During the 7-1 start, Jazz opponents shot 60.5% at the rim and 27.8% from three.
• In the five games since, they have shot 69.2% at the rim and 43.8% from three.

That’s a pretty ugly before and after picture. Let’s zoom in both of those areas to see what changed.

Rim Defense. What’s especially peculiar about the Jazz’s rim defense getting so much worse as a collective figure is that Rudy Gobert has remained phenonemal across both stretches in question. Opponents shot 41.3% at the rim with Gobert nearby during the 7-1 stretch, 43.3% since. That’s a wash statistically, and both of those numbers beat Gobert’s best season-long figure ever. Gobert is not the reason opponents are scoring an extra four points at the rim compared to the first eight games.

Hassan Whiteside, on the other hand, has seen him rim protection numbers go from 52.6% in the hot start to 59.1% during this team-wide funk. That matches the eye test; he hasn’t been as effective lately, and teams have figured out that the way to reduce his effectiveness at the back line of the defense is to force him to move his feet and cover a lot of ground.

But the biggest jump is what’s happening when neither of those two is near the rim. Back out their combined 153 rim challenges from the data and you’ll find that opponents were shooting 76.5% in the restricted area when neither Gobert nor Whiteside were nearby, and that number has jumped to 88.5% over the last five.

You can probably imagine the types of basketball contexts we’re talking about there. If neither Gobert nor Whiteside are around to contest rim attempts, it’s largely about transition settings or against teams with stretchy centers that pull Utah’s bigs away from the paint. Sure enough, Utah’s transition defense did get worse over that stretch (from 127.3 points per 100 transition plays to 134.4). And yes, their four losses in that stretch have all come against teams with centers who can operate in space: Miami’s Bam Adebayo, Indiana’s Domantas Sabonis/Myles Turner tandem, and Orlando’s Wendell Carter Jr./Mo Bamba combo.

3-Point Defense. Most analytical folks will tell you that 3-point outcomes (especially over a small sample) largely come down to make-or-miss luck. And they’re right. But it’s still worth looking to see if anything specific has changed in terms of other factors that might explain Jazz foes getting fifteen (!) extra points per game from deep, on roughly the same proportion of shots.

If you wanted to believe that the Jazz were just unlucky during this 1-4 stretch, then you’d want me to tell you that opponents had been canning an unusual percentage of their contested threes. That just hasn’t been the case. Through November 4, Jazz adversaries shot 33% on the 4.5 nightly threes that the Jazz contested from within four feet. Since then, Utah has guarded 5.0 nightly attempts from that close and opponents have hit just 20% of them. So guarded threes aren’t the culprit.

It turns out, the Jazz defense might have just been getting really fortunate during that 7-1 stretch: teams were shooting 25% on nearly 29 “open” and “wide open” shots per game. In the last five games, teams are shooting 47.2% on 25.4 of them. 

That’s not great news if you’re looking for something correctable. Opponents’ shooting percentage on wide open shots is one of the most luck-susceptible stats in basketball. The Jazz probably weren’t doing anything particularly “right” when opponents were missing three fourths of their open looks; they probably aren’t doing anything terribly “wrong” now that teams are drilling almost half of them. Sometimes teams just make shots.

I checked for other factors to see if any of the myriad other factors that affect 3-point shot quality have changed. For example, NBA players in general tend to shoot better off the catch than off the bounce, but this before/after picture isn’t just a change in that allocation. Jazz opponents went from shooting 27.3% on catch-and-shoot threes pre-November 5 to 42.2% after, and from 25.5% to 44.0% on threes taken after one or more dribbles. They’ve seen similar jumps from the corner (21.4% to 45.2%) and above the break threes (27.9% to 42.2%). Shots with :15 or more left on the shot clock were going down at a 27.1% rate before and a 39.7% clip after, while shots in the last 14 seconds of the possession climbed from 22.9% to 44.9%.

In other words, it’s everything. This isn’t just about opponents getting a different type of 3-pointer. They’re shooting better on just about every type of shot.

There’s not a whole lot for Utah to do with all that data. Keep trying, I suppose. At some point, the numbers will normalize, likely somewhere in between “opponents can’t even convert wide open catch-and-shoots” and “Jazz foes are hitting everything.”

Or not.

But the defensive difference on display when we compare the first eight to the next five has been largely about a percentage jump in those two zones. If the Jazz can find ways to help adversaries cool down a little bit from the rim and from deep, they’ll be fine.

In their own words

Jazz coach Quin Snyder weighed in on the defensive issues after the Jazz fell to 8-5.

“(Defending well throughout a possession) requires more concentration, more communication and more determination. Those are the things we have to have to play defense at the level we need to.”

-Snyder on Saturday

Concentration has actually been a key theme for Snyder lately. In that same interview, he talked about the Jazz’s tendency of late to “have the score dictate [their] urgency,” and his solution to that issue came down to the same thing: mental focus. Specifically, he mentioned defensive lapses and turnovers as issues that have been exacerbated by not being consistently mentally sharp.

“Our focus tends to wane depending on the score,” he said. “That concentration and commitment to the things that we did to get ahead has to be sustained. I just don’t think we’ve had sustained concentration.”

The number of times he has mentioned concentration, focus or similar synonyms lately, it’s obvious that he believes his team is not as mentally plugged in as he wants them to be.

Stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week.

24th

Another common thread in Utah’s recent games is an aversion to getting the ball deep in the paint. In the month of November, they have taken 28.2% of their attempts from the restricted area, the 7th lowest ratio in the league over that span.

+1.7

Lineups featuring Gobert and Mike Conley with no Donovan Mitchell were a huge competitive advantage for the Jazz last season. Those lineups tended to check back in against opposing benches and were able to smash opposing teams’ second units, so much so that all variations had a combined +22.4 efficiency differential. That dominant figure, though, is down to +1.7 this year — they are barely playing winning basketball. The main version of that lineup (those two plus Jordan Clarkson, Joe Ingles and Eric Paschall) is a double-digit positive at +12.7,  but the other high-minute configurations have not been as good. (Don lineups with no Rudy/Mike, by the way, are +13.0. That’s way up from last year’s +0.9.)

2nd

This all could sound a little gloomy, so let’s not lose sight of the fact that the Jazz still possess the league’s second-best differential, when adjusted for garbage time and heaves. (They’re #3 in regular old Net Rating, just tenths of a point behind second-place Miami.) So if any of this makes you feel like you’re rooting for a broken team, just realize that the quality markers are still there, in broad terms.

+6.0

The good folks over at Dunks and Threes finally started running their Estimated Plus Minus reports for the 2021-22 season, and as usual it looks pretty favorably on the Jazz starts. G0bert (14th) and Conley (29th) are once again in the top 30. But the real surprise is that Mitchell has vaulted up to sixth place in the ranking at +6.0, just ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo and behind only Nikola Jokic, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Jimmy Butler and Chris Paul. If the Jazz can get back on track, this could be the year Mitchell finally enters the MVP discussion in a serious way.

Keeping track of the Jazz’s place in the wild, wild West.

It’s still too early to worry too much about playoff predictor systems, but if we’re going to excited eye them when the Jazz are doing well, then it’s at least directionally interesting to keep tabs on what kind of hit their odds take after a 1-4 stretch.

Tracking 538’s Jazz projections across the season so far.

FiveThirtyEight still believed in the Jazz plenty even after back-to-back losses in Florida, but now that they have lost four of five — including two home games where they had 78% or greater chances of winning — the model certainly has to rethink the trajectory.

And at the same time, the Suns and Nuggets have been playing better, which is another factor cutting into Utah’s chances of surviving the West and ultimately hoisting a trophy. Phoenix has won eight straight by an average margin of 12.9 points and Denver has its own 5-0 surge with victories by 11.8. So now FiveThirtyEight has those teams finishing right around the Jazz’s 54-win mark (54 for Phoenix, 53 for Denver), creating a 3-horse race if things go roughly the way their model expects.

It’s early. All three teams’ projections will keep shifting. But for now, the formula doesn’t see Utah running away with the No. 1 seed quite as comfortably as it might have thought even a few days ago.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win.

Jazz 110, Hawks 98: Donovan Mitchell. The lone game ball of the week pretty easily goes to Mitchell, who led the Jazz statistically (27-3-5 and three steals) and efficiently (67.5% eFG, best among the main possession users). He carried the Jazz early when not a lot else was working, and then he and Conley both had 9-point third quarters as Utah build their 18-point lead. The bench deserves some credit too: Clarkson, Whiteside and Paschall all played well in the second quarter when Utah took control of the game and built up the cushion that helped them weather multiple Atlanta runs.

Strong in Defeat:

• Jazz 100, Pacers 111: Donovan Mitchell. This was really close between Mitchell’s 26-5-4 (and another three steals) and Gobert’s 19-and-11. Ultimately, what broke the tie for me was seeing that the Pacers shots 5-for-13 with Mitchell as the primary defender, even better than Gobert’s defense against the stretchy Pacers. Utah did lose Mitchell’s minutes, but that appeared to have a whole lot more to do with his peers than with anything Mitchell did wrong. (Mutliple ejections also clouded this one.)
• Jazz 105, Heat 111: Jordan Clarkson. This had to be either Clarkson or Bojan Bogdanovic based on raw output, but what’s ironic about that when I dug back through all the defensive breakdowns, turnovers and missed boxouts that caused Snyder to speak about “concentration” above, those two starred in that lowlight reel way too often.  Bogey’s line was a tiny bit better (26-6-3) and he was probably responsible for slightly fewer really bad mental lapses, but Clarkson had a bit more “story of the game” oomph going for him after his 14-point first quarter kept Utah afloat early. You could also make a case for Mitchell again: 22-6-4 and FIVE steals.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action.

Tuesday 11/16, Jazz vs. Sixers: Ben Simmons remains estranged from his only NBA team, and All-NBA center Joel Embiid and starter Matysse Thybulle both missed Saturday’s game due to health and safety protocols. Danny Green also left Saturday’s game with hamstring issues and is considered day-to-day. So the big question for Tuesday night is what version of the Sixers show up in Vivint Arena. Either way, it will be Georges Niang’s first visit back to Utah since leaving in free agency. The sharpshooting forward is averaging 14.3 points per game in November as Philly looks for help through their injury situation. Tobias Harris has been a stud this season, averaging 21-9-4. He missed some time too, but has been back for the last two, including a 32-and-11 performance in Indiana.

Thursday 11/18, Jazz vs. Raptors: Toronto is another injury-plagued team at present, with two starters and a third rotation player listed as questionable for Monday night’s game. They have lost four of five going into that showdown in Portland, and then they’ll have two full days of rest before Jazz-Raps. They’re the only team in the association with four players averaging 16.0 points or more. Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby do most of the heavy lifting, and Scottie Barnes is one of the most precocious rookies in the league. They’re long, athletic and hyper, factors that help them pound the glass (#1 of offensive rebound rate) and disrupt opponents (#3 in opponent turnovers). They’ll do a lot of switching on defense and a lot of 5-out on offense, which will make this an interesting one relative to various narratives about the Jazz.

Saturday 11/20, Jazz @ Kings: This is already the third Jazz-Kings matchup of the year. The Jazz won first two, but the Kings held fourth-quarter leads in both, so they were games that could have theoretically gone either way. That said, the Kings are in the middle of some coaching-related melodrama, so we’ll have to see how that impacts the game. Rumors of a coach on the ropes can sometimes rally a team together (see: Milwaukee Bucks) or other times it can just create motivation for players who pine for change to give less than their full effort. Or, if a change has already happened by Friday, do the Jazz catch a team in the middle of a honeymoon period? Either way, the Jazz had better be ready for a track meet: Sacramento is the #1 team in points per transition play.

Random stuff from the Jazz community.

In the last week, Bogdanovic reached the 8,000 career point mark just a few days after Whiteside reached 6,000. So let’s take a quick look at some other possible career milestones on the horizon for different Jazz folks:

• Barring injury/rest, Conley will play his 900th career game this Saturday.
• Gobert is currently sitting at exactly 2,500 career field goals made. With 11 more blocks, he’ll catch Mark Eaton for third on the franchise swat list. With 51 more blocks, he’ll simultaneously catch Greg Ostertag for second and also move into the top 50 in NBA history for that stat.
• Mitchell is 192 points away from the 8,000-point plateau, which means that at his current scoring average he’s likely about two weeks away.
• Clarkson needs 88 more threes to reach 1,000 career triples, something he will likely accomplish this season.
• Ingles is only 133 from hitting the 5,000-point mark himself, but since he’s only averaging 7.5 ppg at present, that may take him 17-18 games to accomplish, unless he picks up the pace. He also only needs three steals to catch Gordon Hayward for ninth on the all-time franchise steals list.

What am I missing?

More to come from SC7 headquarters next Monday!