Salt City Seven: Is Markkanen Really on the Market & More

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

You already know what the biggest question is at the moment around this franchise: with 52 days left before the trade deadline, is Jazz All-Star Lauri Markkanen truly available on the trade market?!

Short answer: sure. And no. And it’s complicated. OK, this is one of those where there isn’t a short answer.

The analysis starts here: there are very few NBA players who are truly untouchable. Unless you are a top-10 superstar and/or just inextricably a part of your team’s identity, then sure, you’re tradeable. Beyond that group of MVP candidates, though, there is another tier of players who theoretically are not off the table, but there are so few realistic trades that a team would say yes to that they are functionally off limits (unless they force the issue by demanding a trade). That’s probably where Markkanen sits. If some GM had one too many egg nogs this holiday season and called up and offered Giannis Antetokounmpo or Nikola Jokic straight up for Markkanen, the Jazz say yes. But that call is not coming.

Beyond that unrealistic scenario, there is some hypothetical number of draft assets that would make Danny Ainge and Justin Zanik, the team’s basketball decision-makers, at least stop and think. Some opposing executives have guessed, via the Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor, that it would probably take a haul of draft assets usually reserved for all-league talents: five or so good first-rounders or similarly valued good, young players. In other words, if you’re not willing to offer something in the ballpark of what Utah got for Rudy Gobert or Donovan Mitchell, you’re probably wasting your breath.

And even at that, it’s easy to mischaracterize a player suddenly being, sarcastic airquotes incoming, “made available.” There is no actual, physical trading block where team executives demonstrably put a player to signal to their 29 peer front offices that they’re now listening. Is a player “available” if Zanik doesn’t instantly hang up the phone as soon as his name is mentioned? My car’s not for sale, but is someone comes to my door with a cashier’s check for an exorbitant overpay, I’m probably not kicking them off my porch right away. Does that mean my car is on the market?

The Jazz love Markkanen. “I hope he’s here for 10 years,” a Jazz person told me around this time last year, when the Finnish forward was still just starting to explore his potential in a new system. Since then, he’s become a full-fledged NBA All-Star, scored with a combination of volume and efficiency usually reserved for MVP candidates, and became the first NBA player ever to score 100+ dunks and 200+ threes in the same season.

As Markkanen was starting to ease into his role as Utah’s primary offensive weapon, there were some cautious whispers: He’s starting to look a little like young Dirk Nowitzki, people only barely dared to say. Over the course of the season, it became less wild. Dirk didn’t regularly assault the rim like Lauri, nor was he anywhere close to as prolific from deep. In fact, if you statistically compare Nowitzki’s age-25 season to Markkanen’s, the comparison isn’t crazy at all.

Dirk at that point in his career still wasn’t DIRK FREAKING NOWITZKI, but the point here is that perhaps Markkanen isn’t yet the final version of himself either. Nowitzki was third-team All-NBA at 25, and Markkanen was awfully close at the same age. In the seven years that followed, Nowitzki was perennially first- or second-team, averaged 25-9-3, won the 2007 MVP, led two Finals runs, and ultimately claimed the 2011 title.

Because of early-season hamstring issues, Markkanen’s only 17 games into the current season. His production could have easily suffered a steep drop given the lack of a true table-setting guard. Instead, his usage and efficiency have damn near held up. Even if he has reached his plateau and his trajectory doesn’t take him into “MVP Dirk” territory, he’s already established himself as a top 30ish player at worst, and a bit of a unicorn in terms of being someone who is apositionally versatile. That’s a valuable commodity even if THIS is exactly what he’s going to be moving forward.

All of this is why I think people are asking the wrong version of the Markkanen question this week. The question isn’t whether or not he’s “available,” whatever that means. The question is, why would a team want to trade a 26-year-old All-Star who’s still improving and who plays like young Dirk, but angrier at the rim? The only acceptable answers to that question are: a) they wouldn’t, or b) they would only if they’re unsure about their ability to keep him.

The Jazz should be in a position to use 2024 cap space to bump up Markkanen’s $18M salary for next season, and then extend him based off of that new salary. If Jazz execs are truly more willing to listen to overtures than they have been in the past, I’d wonder if that means they’re less confident about their ability to use the renegotiate-and-extend gambit to lock him in for the long haul.

For his part, Markkanen does still sound like someone who wants to be in Utah. “Oh yeah. Love it,” he told The Athletic this weekend. “So we’d like to be there. We like the environment. It’s a pretty comfortable place to be.” (More from this interview momentarily.)

If Markkanen is signaling a desire to stay, then it should take a downright silly offer for Utah to even consider moving him. That’s why the prediction here is that Markkanen will still be a Jazzmen when the Jazz tip off on Phoenix on February 8, hours after the trade deadline.

 

“I just want to emphasize that I really believe in what we’re building here with the Jazz.”

-Markkanen, to The Athletic’s Sam Amick

Amick points out that Markkanen went back to that point voluntarily and proactively. The 2023 All-Star also mentioned that he hasn’t had interaction with Jazz brass around the trade rumors, so one wonders if this is his attempt to send the message: If you’re listening to offers because you’re not sure of my commitment level, you can hang up the phone now.

 

8-0

The Jazz remain undefeated when entering the 4th quarter tied or in the lead. This week, they took a 5-point lead into the final frame against New York, and they were up 27 in Portland, enough to withstand a last-ditch effort by the Blazers’ third unit. Of course, the flip side of this stat is that the Jazz have had close to no chance (1-17) when they enter the last 12 minutes trailing.

41.5

The recent scoring explosions by Collin Sexton and Simone Fontecchio couldn’t have come at a better time, given other injuries. Sexton has put up 25.3 per outing across the last four, combined with Fontecchio’s 16.3 to make more than 40 per game comine from these young vets. And both have been remarkably efficient over that stretch too: 67.9% true shooting for Young Bull, 72.5% for Tech, the hottest Jazzmen who have appeared in all four of those contests.   

67.1%

Against the Kings on Saturday, the Jazz actually forced the highest turnover rate of the season, with 18.4% of Sacramento’s possessions ending in a miscue. But it didn’t matter, because it was also the worst eFG% defense of the season at 67.1%. Of course, Keegan Murray’s historic night has a lot to with that: it was just the 10th time in NBA history a player hit 12 threes in a game.

13

Olynyk’s 13 assists in Sacramento were a Jazz season high, and he becomes just the third Jazz player in the past 10 seasons to have a game with 13 or more on in a road game (joining Mike Conley and Joe Ingles).

 

The Game Ball department had an unusual flurry of activity this week, as Utah went 2-1.

Jazz 117, Knicks 113: Collin Sexton. As nice as it was to have Markkanen back, Sexton really powered the Jazz in this one, with 26 points, plus seven assists for another 19 points. With Keyonte George leaving early after hurting his foot, Sexton was massively important. So was the guy who would be my runner-up: Kelly Olynyk, with a 9-10-8 line. Markkanen was also considered of course (23 and 7), as was Talen Horton-Tucker, who scored nine of his 15 during the 16-0 run the Jazz used to go up for good.

Jazz 122, Blazers 114: Simone Fontecchio. THT and Olynyk once again had a lot to do with the really decisive stretch, a 15-0 third quarter run that put the game away for good. But I think we’re overthinking it if we don’t give it to the guy who had 24 points on eight shots. Fontecchio practically couldn’t miss, and on a night when Markkanen was resting, the Jazz needed that extra juice, especially on the second night of a back-to-back. Sexton had another nice night with 27, but nine of those were in a fairly meaningless fourth quarter. THT had 23 points and four steals.

Strong in defeat:

• Jazz 104, Kings 125: Kelly Olynyk. Sexton had his third straight night of 26-plus, but was lighter in the other areas in this one. Plus, 13 assists — especially on the road — is just a rarer feat anyway. Overall, KO had 9 points, 13 assists, 5 rebounds, a block and a steal. Taylor Hendricks had another encouraging outing, and the Jazz were most competitive when Markkanen (18 points) was on the floor.

 

Two guys who probably deserve a little more love are Olynyk — with 28 assists in his last three outings — and Fontecchio, who has really filled in as a scorer during Markkanen’s absence. Here’s a play to highlight the KO-Tech connection.

So the thing that catches your eye at the broadest level is just: holy smokes, the timing! This is a beautiful bit of basketball architecture that required all five guys all dancing to the same metronome.

Walker Kessler’s pindown for Fontecchio happens at the exact same moment as Sexton’s little flare screen for Olynyk. Harrison Barnes gets around it quickly, but that’s OK because this play is meant to give Olynyk, the Jazz’s best playmaker on the floor, a chance to read and react. If Barnes had gotten hung up on the pick, Olynyk could have fired a three, but instead he weaves his way into the paint behind Sexton, so that Keon Ellis has to come up to him. All this is happening precisely as Fontecchio has curled around the pindown and headed back downhill. And Kessler rolled wide, which kept his man (not a great paint protector anyway) off of the rim.

Olynyk makes the pass at precisely the right moment, and Fontecchio is now averaging 12.6 points per game as a starter this year.

 

Utah is in the middle of an 8-games-in-13 nights stretch, and will see action on four of the next six evenings. Here are a couple of sentences on each one:

• Monday, 12/18: Jazz vs. Nets. Royce O’Neale will play for just the second time as a Jazz opponent in Utah, for a team that’s plugging along right above .500. After a 5-2 stretch, Brooklyn has lost three of four on their current road trip, and this is the go-home game.
• Wednesday, 12/20: Jazz @ Cavs. Former Jazz superstar Donovan Mitchell is a bit of a one-man show right now: injuries to Evan Mobley and Darius Garland have taken some of the starpower out of the Cavs’ lineup. They did however right the ship after a 3-game skid, beating Quin Snyder’s Hawks. (The other ex-Jazz in Cleveland, George Niang, has made just two of his last 19 shots.)
• Thursday, 12/21: Jazz @ Pistons. At some point in time, the Detroit Pistons will win another basketball game. They’ve lost 23 straight as of this writing, but at least former Jazz forward Bojan Bogdanovic is averaging up over 20 again in his seven games since returning from injury, 
• Saturday, 12/23: Jazz @ Raptors. The Raptors are having another perfectly mediocre season, really the fourth straight since they won the 2019 title. They’re shifting more responsibilities to Scottie Barnes (averaging 20-9-6), which of course make everyone wonder what the future holds for expiring vets like Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby (player option).

 

Here’s just a grab bag of quirky stat stuff for your weekly dose of fun:

• Olynyk’s three straight games of 7+ assists are the only such streak in team history by a center.
• Sexton and the injured Jordan Clarkson are the only Jazz players this season to string together at least three games with 26+ points. Clarkson did it in four straight November games, and Sexton’s streak is active as of this writing.
• Sexton didn’t pass the 25-point mark in any game last season; he has done so three straight times (and counting?).
• Markkanen needs four assists to reach 500 career helpers.
• He also currently leads the league at catch-and-shoot threes per game at 3.1.
• The Jazz have used 11 different starting lineups this season, including seven that they only used for a single game.
• The Jazz rank below average (21st) in overall 3-point percentage, but lead the league in clutch 3pt% at 47.2%.

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Enjoy this 4-game pre-Christmas sprint!