Sexton’s On-Ball Scoring Knack Points to Possibilities

October 4th, 2023 | by Dan Clayton

Sexton has shown some impressive scoring chops since arriving in Utah. (Trent Nelson, The Salt Lake Tribune)

There’s something odd and incongruous about the dialogue around Collin Sexton.

He does things with the basketball in his hands that should make any team salivate. He got off to a more auspicious start as an NBA scorer than any other contemporary non-star player. And he’s still just 24. And yet all people can seem to talk about with Sexton is what he might not be.

Almost every conversation about him winds up being a discussion of his purported ceilings:  the reasons he can’t be an insert-the-blank level player because of this, that or the other thing. All while a really good player does some very unique things on the court.

Sexton possesses a rare and intriguing combination of NBA skills. Maybe bench sparkplug winds up being his best NBA role, but  before we collectively decide that is his ceiling, we should probably look closely at what he has actually been up to as a basketball player.

Versatile on-ball scorer

You would have no idea from listening to people discuss Sexton’s present and future that he shoots above 40% on pull-up threes or that he can get both feet in the paint whenever he damn well pleases.

Having either of those two skills in a ball handling guard should make a team and fan base giddy. Having both in the same player is so rare that it put Sexton in an elite club of on-ball assassins.

In fact, just for kicks, I cross-referenced the list of guys to convert 40% or more of their pull-up threes last season (min. 40 attempts) with the list of players to manage 63% true shooting or better as drivers (min. 50 drives). Only three players joined Sexton on both lists: Steph Curry, Kawhi Leonard and rising star Austin Reaves. 

Let’s first address the shooting. Literally only two players exceeded his 46.5% on at least as many off-the-bounce 3-point jumpers last season.

Sexton has become a pull-up threat.

For the majority of NBA players, the pull-up three is a significantly harder shot than a no-dribble, catch-and-shoot attempt. The sample size was small, but it is wildly useful to have a player who can nail a good percentage of threes when stopping on a dime.

For frame of reference, Donovan Mitchell never made more than 36.3% of his pull-up threes in a Jazz season. Which is really, really good for pull-ups!

But sure, I’ll buy that there’s some skepticism about that figure holding up. Sexton’s previous best season as a pull-up outside shooter was his rookie year, at 37.5%. So let’s assume some statistical correction, particularly if he’s going to be healthy enough to attempt more than 43 such shots going forward.

But even if you’re cynical there, Sexton’s always been a bulldog driver. His premier NBA skill is that whenever he wants to, he can get inside the paint. Will Hardy has called it his “superpower.” Getting there has never been an issue, but his percentage on twos has slowly climbed over the course of his pro career.

He drove almost 10 times a game last season. With a full year under his belt post-knee surgery and with other Jazz guards out of his way, that number probably goes up.

He has a wicked little juke out in space that makes his first step that much more lethal, and then when he gets deeper on the drive, a strong frame helps him absorb (or initiate) contact. But watch film of Sexton’s drives and you won’t see the same trick or two over and over again. He is roughly as likely to drive middle as he is to go baseline, and just as likely to use the screen as to dribble away from it. He most often finishes right, but can lay it in lefty when needed, too. He has serious burners in transition, but on halfcourt drives he really shows he has mastered the change of speed. He’s fun to watch with the ball in his hands.

There were even times last year when the Jazz were small and opponents put someone like Maxi Kleber or Marcus Morris Sr. on Sexton. Dude just went to work. But he didn’t just make the big guys dance; he’s not afraid to use his body, even when someone taller than him has the assignment.

Sexton shot 55% inside of 15 feet last season, and more than two thirds of his attempts came from there. But it’s when you factor in his foul drawing ability that you see the true efficiency payoff of unleashing the ‘Bama product.

Of guards who played real minutes last year, only megastar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander drew shooting fouls as often as Sexton (on 17.2% of his attempts). He shot a free throw about 42.5% as often as he attempted a field goal, which is a wild figure for a guard outside the superstar class.

Factor in the free throws, and Sexton’s true shooting on drives improves to .639.

That means the average possession that ends with a Sexton driving attempt was worth 1.28 points to the Jazz, and the average possession that ends with Sexton shooting a three off the bounce was worth 1.4 (before even factoring in offensive rebounds). That is a crazy combination. Keep in mind that the average NBA possession was worth 1.15 last year, and the average halfcourt possession just 0.98. People should be beside themselves about what he’s producing in those contexts as an on-ball scorer.

Scoring knack from day one

Sexton’s first Jazz season might have been an outlier in some ways — like the pull-up shooting spike — but it’s not like he hasn’t been a prolific scorer from day one.

Sixteen active NBA players averaged at least 20 points over their first three seasons combined, and 15 of them have been All-Stars. The 16th guy is Sexton. In fact, of the 47 players who entered the NBA in the 3-point era and averaged 20 over their first three seasons, the only guys to never make an All-Star team are Sexton (so far), Jim Jackson and the Jazz’s own Darrell Griffith.

So yeah, some of his 2022-23 figures might not hold up. But this guy has been a capital-S scorer since he reached the Association.

He wasn’t hitting pull-up threes quite like this in Cleveland, but his catch-and-shoot percentage there was much better, so he’s always been a strong shooter. The other difference in his shot profile is that he doubled the proportion of corner threes in his shot diet.

He’s still taking and making roughly the same number of shots at the rim, but his frequency and efficiency in the “floater range” (4 to 14 feet) have both improved, per Cleaning the Glass.

His Utah production might look more modest than his scoring average in Cleveland, but it’s mostly a function of the way the Jazz carefully watched his minutes. They badly wanted him to get through his first full year after surgery with no incidents, so they kept him right around 24 mpg all season. On a per-36 basis, his Utah scoring output (21.5) if roughly equal to when he was a Cav (21.8).

Room to grow

He’s also still just 24! This isn’t a player who will be in a rocking chair long before the Jazz are relevant again. It also means he has plenty of time to work on some flaws. And let’s be clear, he has some.

We’ve heard that the main thing the Jazz are working on is his passing, especially if he ever purports to be a candidate for lead ball handling duties. He passes the ball on just 29% of his drives, which is a much lower figure than any other Jazz guards. And hey, if you’re going to get 1.28 points per shooting possession as a driver, maybe it’s OK that he passes out of those situations less often. But he does get a little tunnel-visioned at times. Beyond assist numbers, it’s more about making the correct play every time.

His defense is the other watchout area. When guarding the pick-and-roll ball handler at the end of a play, Sexton was in the 13th percentile for defensive outcomes. Those play type stats are far from perfect, but it says something that Sexton has consistently ranked in the bottom fourth of the league in that situation. When guarding iso ball handlers’ shooting possessions, he’s gone from literally one of the worst in the league (3rd %ile his first two seasons) to average (53rd %ile last year).

It’s mostly sins of commission that hold Sexton back here: you can tell he wants to be a good defender (most of the time). I mean, just watch his eyes here. He looks possessed. 

Still, it appeared to be defense that prompted Hardy’s notable “it’s not about you” rant, directed at the youngster. His teams consistently defend better with him sitting than on the court (except for the 2021-22 season when he played just 11 games), and stats like defensive box plus/minus and D-Raptor have always pegged him as a minus at that end. In particular, transition defense seems to be where opponents do a fair amount of damage while Sexton is on the court.

There is plenty to work on. There usually is for 24-year-olds, especially those who have missed entire seasons. 

But the foundation is equally real. If Sexton can improve even just a little as a playmaker and defender, he’ll allow the Jazz to explore deploying more of his efficient, dynamic on-ball chops.

The future

Keeping Sexton comparatively healthy was a big win last year. The Jazz are aware of the rates of recurrence for major knees inside the first year compared to after, and they were determined to get him to the 2022-23 finish line without a major issue.

Now, he enters his age-24/25 season healthy, and with three more years under contract after choosing to be in Utah. Practically none of Utah’s main guys can say that they made the decision to call Salt Lake City home. Jordan Clarkson chose to stay here, which is something. Deep reserves Simone Fontecchio and Omer Yurtseven signed in Utah willingly. Kris Dunn and Luka Samanic did too, although both were unemployed at the time.

Sexton is under contract $17.3M, then $18.2M, then $19.0M. That’s low-end starter money in the new NBA economy, a nice value for a guy who is a career 20-points-per-36 scorer and who’s still getting better in really interesting ways.

As we said while previewing Kelly Olynyk, it wouldn’t be a total shock if he were included in Utah’s next deal. Utah very clearly wants to identify its next title-worthy core, and at some point that’s going to require packaging really good basketball players. Sexton is good enough to entice somebody, young enough to be considered a forward-looking asset, and in the right financial range to help a deal come together numbers-wise. He’s a little less likely to be traded than someone like Olynyk or Talen Horton-Tucker just because of the additional seasons on his contract, but those years could be absolute bargains if there’s even modest growth in some of the weaker areas of Sexton’s game.

But don’t get too carried away with that yet. For now, he’s a Jazzman. And an interesting one. Utah acquired him not simply to play the asset arbitrage game, but to give him a chance at developing into a more essential piece of the puzzle as he hits his mid-20s. So far, what he’s done in a Jazz uniform has been intriguing, though certainly not flawless.

Look, nobody can say for sure if Sexton is ever going to be a bona fide star, or a starting point guard on a contending team, or whatever. The point is: there’s a pretty fun player there right damn now. If we can all stop trying to look smart for a minute and enjoy the unique stuff he’s already doing, we might well derive some enjoyment from the Collins Sexton experience today — and let the future bring what it may.

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