Silver Linings of a Stormy Stretch

January 28th, 2022 | by Zarin Ficklin

Mitchell’s Jazz have had a rough month. (Trent Nelson, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Wow, what a turbulent month for the Utah Jazz. The Jazz have lost nine of their last 11 games. The rotation has been ravaged by health issues. Andrew Wiggins was named All-Star starter over Rudy Gobert, despite the latter outpacing him in the media vote 65-4. Effort has iffy at times. There’s even a John Stockton controversy. I’m sure many Jazz fans would like to fast-forward to the point when the team is healthy, the trade deadline, or even the playoffs.

Following a sports team is an up-and-down experience. Hope for the future makes the low times bearable. This patch of franchise history is not without silver linings. Here are a few:

Seeding

The Jazz will probably not catch the Suns for 1st seed in the conference. Repeating as the top seed would’ve been nice, as that team will only play one of the other top three teams. In contrast, the Jazz will likely have to face both the Suns and the Warriors if they are to emerge from the West.

The bright side is that, with the No. 1 seed out of reach, the team can focus more on health and habits and less on wins at all cost. Perhaps Mike Conley Jr. and other veterans may feel better about resting a bit more now.

There is not much difference between 2nd, 3rd, or 4th place at this point. Even a slide to 5th or 6th is not the end of the world. The Jazz remain a solid road team this season. And no matter the eventual seeding, there’s a very good chance a top-10 player awaits in every round. This year’s playoffs could be extra chaotic with uncertainty around when and if Clippers star Kawhi Leonard and Denver guard Jamal Murray may return. The Jazz could bust their butts and finish 2nd, only to face a fully loaded Clippers or Nuggets team in the first round. Another early exit to either team could have disastrous implications and force fundamental identity questions.

So, the Jazz can stick to their original plan: do whatever it takes to enter the postseason whole.

The need for a trade is clear

It was harder to justify the need for a trade last season. The perimeter defense weakness was no secret — and yet the Jazz were still blowing the doors off teams, with a historically good net rating. There was an argument that the chemistry, continuity, and insanely efficient offense was worth riding out. After all, we hadn’t — and still haven’t, really — seen what this team can do in a playoff series when fully healthy.

Now, it’s clearer that the Jazz need to make a move. You can chalk up much of January’s woes to health, but there are still underlying issues to resolve.

Look at most of trade targets associated with the Jazz. They have salaries ranging from $12–20 million. You can do the math yourself, but to match salary for such a player, Utah would likely have to send out Joe Ingles, Jordan Clarkson, or even Bojan Bogdanovic. All are favorites among fans and the locker room. It’s a hard sell to make, even if the trade makes sense on paper.

This rough stretch has upped the desperation, and players and fans alike may be able to swallow such a deal now.

Timing

Relatedly, it’s much better this rough stretch happened right before the trade deadline rather than after. A big part of this regular season is assessing the current roster and making sure they are more flexible for different playoff tests. Now they have time to make readjustments.

End-of-bench emergence

When the team is healthy, Jazz coach Quin Snyder doesn’t have much reason to play out-of-rotation players. But with injuries, we’ve been able to see more Trent Forrest, Eric Paschall and even 10-day signee Danuel House Jr. All bring defense and energy. House is looking like a player that can excel when surrounded by other quality players. Forrest had a break-out game against the Warriors. We’ve seen flashes of Paschall all season when he gets opportunities.

Even if none of these players crack a healthy rotation, it will be nice to have a deeper end of bench when lack of such depth was magnified in recent playoff runs. The Jazz have long sought to hit on a mid-season minimum pickup, and House in particular may qualify.

The team can be elite

While the issues with effort or perimeter defense are real, you can fairly attribute much of this month to lack of health. We’ve seen what this team can do when humming and healthy. Not long ago we were monitoring whether this could be the best offensive team of all-time. As Dan Clayton pointed out, when their rotation players are healthy, the Jazz have been dominant. Play even one player outside the main group, and the outcomes plummet quickly.

If the Jazz enter the playoffs healthy and progress deep into the postseason, this January could become a small blip in the team’s history. So much of a championship comes down to luck. They can mitigate luck to some degree by becoming a deeper and more diverse team with personnel moves. But to even be in the contender conversation, a team needs the ability to hit a minimum ceiling. I believe the Jazz have that ceiling.

While I do think the team needs to make a move, it may not need to be a big one. Swap out one bench player for a more defensive-minded counterpart, and that may be enough. With Danny Ainge at the helm, something bigger could be on the horizon too, although trade assets are limited.

At this point, it’s wait-and-see, but there are reasons to look up.

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