Sorting Out the Still-Wild West: Offseason Recaps & Tiers For All 15 Teams

Once again, the NBA’s Western Conference is home to a bevy of superstars and multiple contenders.

The field is set. Fifteen Western Conference clubs are mostly done with their major personnel moves, which means we can start to suss out the power structure after a major talent shakeup across the NBA.

Of course, ranking teams at this point of the year can feel subjective. At least that was the complaint of Utah Jazz fans when ESPN’s first power ranking after free agency had the Jazz behind five other Western Conference teams.

Look, everybody is undefeated in July. The NBA community right now is basically 30 fan bases who all think their team is on the right track — well, 29 fan bases and then the Knicks. As many as seven fan bases in the WC can probably talk themselves into believing their teams can contend — heck, even Suns fans are out here wilding.

That’s why I prefer to think of the landscape in terms of tiers as opposed to pure rankings. Here is a look at where the 15 teams stack up, at least in one writer’s analysis. Along the way, we’ll recap each club’s big offseason moves and some weaknesses that might trip up even the elite teams throughout the season.

Teams are listed alphabetically within the respective tiers. 

The Contender Tier

These four teams are the teams that are easiest to picture in the four homecourt slots come April. 

Denver Nuggets

• Offseason in a sentence: They mostly stood pat, opting in on Paul Millsap and locking Jamal Murray in for the long haul — but they also bagged a smart upgrade at the reserve forward spot in Jerami Grant.
• Why they’re in this tier: With roughly the same core, Denver was comfortably a top-four seed last season, and most of their key contributors are at ages where they’re likely to get better around the margins. Our Austin Facer already highlighted some of the reasons Denver can’t be taken lightly, but the quick version is this: they were a 54-win team that stands to get better. They’re anchored by an All-NBA talent in Nikola Jokic, and Grant should be a significant bench upgrade for them, too. They’ll also add Michael Porter, the second-highest draft pick on their current roster. Porter’s rookie season was postponed by a back injury.
• Weaknesses: Both Murray and Gary Harris have been fairly average in terms of efficiency and certain all-in metrics, and one or both will have to take the next step for Denver break through in the playoffs. That’s especially true now they’ve invested $170 million in Murray.

Houston Rockets

• Offseason in a sentence: After reportedly dangling Clint Capela for a while, they went all in on dynamic scoring guards by uniting 2017 and 2018 MVPs Russell Westbrook and James Harden.
• Why they’re in this tier: The Rockets have been widely considered the most serious challenger to the dynastic Warriors for the last couple of seasons, and then added a player who, at least in an absolute sense, is an upgrade over Chris Paul. Sure, there are fit things to work through, but generally speaking, good things happen when you put two MVPs in their primes on the same team. And Houston was already an elite team to begin with.
• Weaknesses: People tend to either hate or love the Russ-Beard pairing, but the reality is that there are legitimate reasons to wonder about Westbrook’s efficiency, how he and Harden will share creation duties, and of course how the pair of notoriously inconsistent defenders will guard opposing backcourts. Plus, age: PJ Tucker is 34, the 30-year-old Eric Gordon is entering his 12th NBA season¹, and the newly-signed Tyson Chandler is heading into his 19th year in the league.

L.A. Clippers

• Offseason in a sentence: Oh, simply added a two-time Finals MVP, a top-three finisher from last year’s regular season MVP race, did so without majorly impacting their depth, and along the way snagged a starting-caliber forward for free just by being in the right place.
• Why they’re in this tier: Simply put, the Clips will enter the season as the favorite for the Western title. Kawhi Leonard alone would have granted the club instant legitimacy, but by adding Paul George — coming off an elite performance last season — they are absolutely poised to contend. They also locked up starters Pat Beverley and JaMychal Green, and nabbed Moe Harkless for free² for helping facilitate the Heat-Blazers trade.
• Weaknesses: While they have a lot of rotation-quality depth, they don’t have a ton of star depth, which is to say that after Kawhi and PG, the drop-off to their role players is pretty stark. They’re especially light on true big men. 

Utah Jazz

• Offseason in a sentence: Adding Mike Conley via trade was enough to shift them into go-for-it mode, but then they also added a dynamic forward in Bojan Bogdanovic and role players like Jeff Green and Ed Davis.
• Why they’re in this tier: Had Kawhi not come west, Utah might have entered the season as WCF favorites after their tremendous offseason. They worked surgically to address deficiencies such as on-ball creation and shot making, and did so without sacrificing much of their defensive mojo or their depth. Conley and Bogdanovic give Utah a much more potent version of a lineup that was the most efficient 5-man combo in the league last season, while Davis and Green will help make it so that they don’t suffer too much for sending Derrick Favors to New Orleans. 
• Weaknesses: Utah’s offensive success is still going to be tied to a player who, until he proves otherwise, is a below-average efficiency guy. The presence of more creators and shooters should give Donovan Mitchell a path to improvement, but he’ll need to make some pretty serious strides if Utah’s really going to sniff a top-5 offensive rating this season.

The “Nobody Would Be Shocked” Tier

I have these next few teams behind the four above, but all of them are squads that could easily crash the upper half of the bracket. Nobody should be too surprised if any of these teams grab a top-4 seed — or even wind up winning the West.

Golden State Warriors

• Offseason in a sentence: They lost Kevin Durant (as well as Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston), but retained the injured Klay Thompson and added All-Star guard D’Angelo Russell.
• Why they’re in this tier: Before Durant ever made his way to the Bay Area, this team was a 73-win juggernaut that had taken the Larry O’Brien trophy on a parade. Granted, though, that was with a healthy Thompson and with role players on the whole. Steph Curry and Draymond Green will have to keep the Warriors connected into the early spring, but if Thompson comes back around then and quickly returns to form, nobody will want to face the Dubs and their championship pedigree in the postseason. 
• Weaknesses: Depth is their main issue. Only six of their players added more than 0.5 Wins Above Replacement last year, and one of those six will miss most of the season. They also have absolutely no means to add more help should someone become available. Because they triggered the hard cap, they can’t even sign a minimum-salary player without first trading someone away.

Los Angeles Lakers

• Offseason in one sentence: They finally put Anthony Davis next to LeBron, but then struck out on other big names and settled for short deals with some decent role players.
• Why they’re in this tier: A lot of folks have the Lakers up in the first tier, and that makes perfect sense. A rejuvenated LeBron James or a more plugged-in version of Davis makes that easy to imagine. But last year showed that 34-year-old LeBron might not be a ticket to 50 wins all on his own anymore³, and once again it doesn’t feel like they put the exact right supporting skill sets around him. There is a bit more shooting on this year’s Lakers roster (Danny Green, Avery Bradley), but they’re still going to be very LBJ-dependent for offensive creation, and they’ll still rely on a lot of guys who are minus defenders overall. Still, they have two megastars who are not far removed from top-5 status, and that raises their floor substantially.
• Weaknesses: LeBron is the only high-quality offensive creator on their roster, and that’s a lot to ask of a guy with that amount of miles on him. He also has been a pretty lackluster regular season defender lately, and one would imagine that will continue if he’s still being asked to do as much on offense.

Portland Trail Blazers

• Offseason in a sentence: They mostly stood pat, but added Hassan Whiteside to help man the center position while Jusuf Nurkic recovers — at the cost of Harkless.
• Why they’re in this tier: For starters, they were Western Conference Finalists like 12 minutes ago! Portland is good. The loss of Nurk will hurt their regular season performance⁴, which is why I have them in the “feel free to shock us” tier, but this team is led by a FOUR-time All-NBA selection and one of the smartest coaches in the Association. They should be a playoff team if they stay moderately healthy. If Nurk comes back ready to help, they’ll be another plucky underseed with the ability to pull off an upset that might or might not even feel like an upset.
• Weaknesses: This is a one-star team right now. Nurkic’s absense means that Damian Lillard won’t have a single teammate with a 2018-19 WAR higher than CJ McCollum’s 3.5⁵.

That’s crazy!! Those are seven teams who at least on paper should be able to vie for a a spot in the conference final! 

The Playoff Bubble Tier

If none of the seven teams above experience significant health problems or extended struggles, there is exactly one playoff spot left for the other eight teams in the conference. Here are the teams that should be best poised to make a run at it. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

• Offseason: The Wolves had one of the quietest offseasons of anybody, although they added shooting wing Jake Layman and drafted Jarrett Culver with the sixth pick.
• Why they’re here: There was a two-month period after the cloud of the Jimmy Butler saga passed and before Robert Covington got hurt that the Wolves were decent. They were 12-10 in RoCo’s first 22 games as a Wolf. But then Covington was lost for the year, and Jeff Teague missed two big chunks, and there just wasn’t enough talent left. In a universe where everything goes right for them, they could challenge for that final playoff spot. But that would require a different level of two-way play from stars Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. So far, that has eluded them.
• Weaknesses: Aside from the fact that their best players are working to address significant holes in their games⁶, the Wolves really struggle to defend threes, and that’s a tough way to live in today’s NBA. Their defense overall is one of the worst in the league.

New Orleans Pelicans

• Offseason: In addition to their AD trade haul, they added established starters in JJ Redick and Derrick Favors… plus they drafted a guy with a chance to be a generational talent.
• Why they’re here: I really like what the Pels have done under new GM David Griffin. They have enough firepower with their veterans that they should be able to win a lot of games even if if takes Zion Williamson a while to find his sea legs, as it does for most rookies. A Jrue Holiday-Redick-Favors trio of high-value starters should give them enough legitimacy to have a shot in a lot of games, and then if any of the recent lottery picks on their roster — Zion is the best, but Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and Jaxson Hayes could all be heard from — they might get back to relevance more quickly than anybody thought.
• Weaknesses: Until Zion starts wreaking havoc on the league, they just don’t have the starpower at the top to consistently make things uncomfortable for the top teams. Holiday is really good, and Favors and Redick are above-average starters, but their only defining star is a kid who has played zero real NBA minutes, and who also has some injury stuff to bounce back from.

San Antonio Spurs

• Offseason: Most of their summer was about fortifying the forward spots, where they retained Rudy Gay and brought in DeMarre Carroll and Trey Lyles via free agency.
• Why they’re here: I caught some flak from Spurs fans last offseason when I stated that I wasn’t sure they were playoff-bound post-Kawhi. Thing is, though: I wasn’t wrong. Their FiveThirtyEight playoff odds were at 42% on January 4, roughly the midpoint of the season. Gregg Popovich got them there because he’s a mad scientist, but my “not sure” take was pretty accurate — they were basically a coin toss to get in. And they’ll be one again. They’re led by a duo of underappreciated almost-superstars whose styles feel odd in a modern game, but that pair and Pop have managed to stave off irrelevance. If the seven teams above all stay healthy and take their expected postseason spots, the Spurs are the safest bet to grab the remaining playoff berth.
• Weaknesses: The Spurs were already the team that took the fewest threes last season, and they lost Davis Bertans to clear room for a Marcus Morris signing that never came to fruition. They also have Dejounte Murray returning after knee surgery, and while that’s a positive thing in overall terms, Murray is another non-outside threat.  

The Not-Quite-Yet Tier

It would be totally reasonable (and maybe even more accurate) to jump these together in one larger tier with the group above as teams that will flirt with competence and fight for a chance to sniff a playoff spot. But ultimately, I see these next teams as being a little bit further from the top.

Dalls Mavericks

• Offseason: Other than some shrewd rotational upgrades — like adding Delon Wright, Seth Curry and Boban Marjanovic — the main priority in Mavsland was locking up Kristaps Porzingis.
• Why they’re here: A lot of people have them up a tier, and that’s perfectly reasonable. Both Porzingis and Luka Doncic have a chance to be legit franchise cornerstones on a great team, and if that hapens sooner rather than later, then I’m willing to look silly for keeping them down here. I just think they’re still a year away from being really interesting. Porzingis will be working his way back from a serious injury, and Doncic will be in just his second season, a campaign that historically trips up some youngsters. And while I like their supporting cast, there’s no third quasi-star who can really carry the torch for them on nights when the young fellas don’t have it. They’re definitely trending right, but unless one or both of those guys takes a mega-leap, Dallas fans might need a bit more patience.
• Weaknesses: They could use some upgrades on the wing. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Courtney Lee were both replacement-level players by some macro stats, and that’s probably why they’re vying for a chance at Iguodala.

Oklahoma City Thunder

• Offseason: It was going to be a quiet offseason in Tornado Alley… until Kawhi lured PG from Oklahoma City and soon after lifelong Thunder Russell Westbrook moved on as well.
• Why they’re here: I considered dropping these guys down to the “no chance” tier, but a Chris Paul-Danilo Gallinari-Steven Adams core trio is better on paper than what most really bad lottery teams have at the top of their roster. The tricky part is that CP3 could be gone any day, potentially to Miami. So the question is, does Goran Dragic-Gallo-Adams feel like a 35-win core? Probably not. Even with CP3, I’m just not sure I see a .500 team in there. CP3’s superstardom has faded, Gallo doesn’t defend, Steven Adams is good but can only score opportunistically. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is interesting.
• Weaknesses: See above. Plus, it’s worth mentioning that CP3 and Gallo have each averaged 23 to 30 games missed to injury over the last three seasons. 

Sacramento Kings

• Offseason: Aside from keeping Harrison Barnes around, the Kings made some rotational upgrades with players who have contributed on good teams: Trevor Ariza, Cory Joseph and Dewayne Dedmon.
• Why they’re here: The Kings were a plucky team and a fun story last season, but predictive models never really took them too seriously. Per 538, their playoff odds topped out at about 13% in early March. De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley Jr. are going to keep getting better, and that’s really Sacramento’s key to climbing the ladder. Without one or both of those sophomores making immense steps forward, this is still a starless team.
• Weaknesses: They actually have enough quality NBA players for a decent rotation, but the truth is that Sacto will be at a talent deficit almost every time out. Phoenix and Memphis are the only other Western Conference teams who don’t have a 6+ WAR player on their roster for the upcoming season. In fact, 11 of the 12 other teams have TWO such studs⁷. Simply put, the Kings just don’t have the firepower to be a serious threat until one of Fox or Bagley explodes.

The Rebuilding Tier

The title says it: these teams are not expected to be very competitive this season, but they have young stars who will be fun to watch develop nonetheless.

Memphis Grizzlies

• Offseason: The Grizz moved on from their signature core with trades in February (Marc Gasol) and June (Conley), and are now moving forward with a full rebuild after putting No. 2 pick Ja Morant next to Jaren Jackson Jr.
• Why they’re here: The JJJ-Ja core is as good a place as any to start a rebuild, as both guys have a chance to be really good. But in the meantime, it’s obvious that the franchise is hitting the reset button, as they used their trade exceptions to acquire expiring salary attached to picks. They are not planning to be good.
• Weaknesses: Youth is a divine treasure, but it also means that Memphis is employing a lot of guys who are still learning the NBA game. They have eight players on their roster who will be playing their first, second or third NBA season, and once they trade Andre Iguodala and waive Dwight Howard, they won’t have a single player with more than seven years in the league.

Phoenix Suns

• Offseason: Ricky Rubio, Aron Baynes and Dario Saric are the key additions to a Phoenix group that won 24 games last season.
• Why they’re here: Rubio gives them the type of floor general they haven’t had in a long time, and that will probably help Devin Booker, who finally turned the corner in some ways last season. But the simplest form of win arithmetic says that Suns fans might need to brace themselves for another season in waiting. Their best hope of escaping this tier is DeAndre Ayton making a big year-two leap.
• Weaknesses: The team that was dead last in 3-point shooting last season added a non-shooting PG in Rubio and a non-shooting big in Baynes. Saric (36% last year) could help, but this team will still lack sufficient spacing threats.