The Sportsbook’s Preview of the 2021-22 Utah Jazz

Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell have the Jazz looking like a solid bet to repeat as a regular season juggernaut. (via ESPN.com)

I have a lot of thoughts about the Utah Jazz right now. It’s a little hard to organize them in my head, and when I’m confused about where the scene should be set for the upcoming season, I find myself poking at the sportsbooks to gauge their temperature on all things Jazz.

Whether or not you partake in sports betting, reviewing the odds at a book is usually a good way to check what the public’s view is on the state of teams and players. One of the main goals of a sportsbook—the only goal, for some—is to set lines so that the public is betting equally on each side of the line. If the public is split down the middle, the book will take home a profit either way as they take a cut of the total action. And while the reality is that public perfection is never split perfectly down the middle, a book’s odds are still a great way to see where decently knowledgeable sports fans are on the fence.

And so these lines provide a great conduit to discuss how the Jazz season could turn out, at least in the view of those who put their money where their mouth is when it comes to forecasting out a season. Utah fans will always act perpetually aggrieved as to the public perception of the Jazz, so let’s see where that fence line is on several topics bouncing around the Jazz, using the folks at Bovada¹ to set the table on these season-long futures propositions. I’ll also share where I stand on each of these bets, in GIF form.

In Donovan Mitchell’s words: Let’s go!!!!!

Utah Jazz Regular Season Wins: 51.5

(Over: -160; Under: +120)

Mark’s Bet:

Let’s hammer that over! The Jazz are a total regular season juggernaut. Last season, Utah won at a 59-win pace (adjusted to 82 games) and had the point differential of a whopping 65-win team—the 17th best mark in the whole damn history of the NBA.

The formula is simple: superior offensive talent will blow teams out of the water from deep and at the rim, and Rudy Gobert will anchor a top-3 defense. Young and bad teams will struggle to defend Utah’s offensive onslaught and to score on the Gobert-led defense, so Utah will be the league’s best team at dispatching the league’s worst teams, racking up tons of wins². And the Jazz’s top-end talent is obviously good enough to win against most playoff-bound teams from night to night. On top of one of the NBA’s only legitimately punishing home court advantages, the Jazz are simply capable of handling any team right at the jump.

The playoff issues that stem from facing a particular set of tactical adjustments and matchup quirks over a 7-game series won’t be as much of an issue in lone regular season games. Teams just won’t be able to adjust their own philosophies and systems for a one-night battle in Salt Lake City, and even if they try, it’s hard to execute a specific strategy flawlessly in a one-off regular season setting without the opponent-focused practice time teams can afford in the playoffs.

It just doesn’t make sense how Utah could win eight fewer games than last year, or 14 wins below the point differential from a season ago. This is actually one of the best bets you can make for any team’s win total over-under.

That said, I think the Jazz have experienced firsthand that their machine-like regular season formula has a peak that can be scaled by opponents in the playoffs. They are a great, but not unassailable, team. The Jazz deployed Gobert as best as they could to simultaneously guard the Clippers’ endless drives into the paint and cover non-shooter Terance Mann, but had no prepared adjustments to make when Mann transformed into Ray Allen. The health of Mitchell and Mike Conley Jr. (and perhaps a worn-down Joe Ingles, but that is just speculation) was the primary factor in Utah’s most recent playoff exit, but schematic inflexibility was not far behind.

Utah needs to address that this season, and I expect that they will. The Milwaukee Bucks of recent vintage have proven that experimenting with different styles and schemes can prove dividends once the intensity and difficulty increase in the playoffs. Last season, the Bucks suffered a little bit in offense and defense during the regular season as they explored funky lineups and occasionally a switching defense (even with ground-bound behemoth Brook Lopez), and Giannis Antetokounmpo didn’t quite dominate as he did the season before. But Milwaukee proved much more resilient and flexible when the playoff punches started rolling—something Utah hasn’t been able to withstand.

My boldest suggestion, and I guess by extension my biggest hot take prediction, is that Utah should and will showcase Gobert more as a star player. This starts by exhibiting him as a great perimeter defender, capable of defending switches. In the past, players who wind up with Rudy guarding them on a switch would abandon the offense as if to say, “I can take this guy from here.” And they often failed! Players going against Rudy scored just 0.71 points per isolation possession, per NBA.com. I am begging Jazz coach Quin Snyder to expand Gobert’s defensive utility to see what might work (or not!) in the playoffs, and what new branches of defense (doubling? pre-switching or pre-rotating?) can be deployed off that tree, even if that requires some regular season experimentation.

The quieter, but arguably bigger, issue is how best to wield Gobert’s skillset offensively when defenses dare the Jazz to deploy him in a larger role. It has been incredibly frustrating for years to see a defense unintentionally end up plunking a small guard to defend Rudy on a possession (like the Clippers did!), and see Utah fail to exploit it. The issues ran the gamut: aborted entry passes, strips when the ball came down, not recognizing a double team, record-scratching ball movement. It is a systemic failure that is equally shared by the Jazz ballhandlers, Gobert, and the coaching staff. Conversely, Rudy shined in the Olympics when defended by smaller players (including Team USA’s Draymond Green, a defensive star), putting their ass under the basket while France worked the ball inside at just the right time before the defense adjusted or could send help. Utah’s offense will only be able to reliably frighten teams with this tactic if they get some reps on it with real game action, and I hope it comes to fruition. I don’t need Gobert shooting threes; I need him punishing the Reggie Jacksons of the league to keep opponents from reaching into all-guard/wing lineups that will expose Utah’s defense.

Utah also needs to simply take care of their guys. Mitchell is still a young fella and Gobert might be the most in-shape player in the entire league, but everyone else in the rotation should be carefully managed. Ingles is a notable ironman in the NBA, but he didn’t perform at his best in the playoffs—for his age 34 season, Snyder needs to be okay with giving him the occasional night off even if Joe wants to play. Ditto Conley with his touch-and-go hamstrings, and the ailments accumulated by 32-year-old Bojan Bogdanovic and 35-year-old Rudy Gay. With promising rookie guard Jared Butler and 3rd-year forward Eric Paschall in the fold, Snyder should feel comfortable giving the 30-somethings occasional nights off.

Even if they do rest and experiment to my liking, I don’t think they’ll do it enough to truly cost them much in the win total. This is especially true because Snyder can coordinate player rest with bad nights on the schedule (e.g., after a long road trip), and work on experimentation against the lesser teams in the league where a win is more easily achievable. A line of 51.5 is safe for the Jazz to achieve, and even cushions against extended absences by any of their star players.

Utah Jazz Conference Seeding: 2.5

(Over: +110; Under: -145)

Mark’s Bet:

I’ll hammer the over on this one too, but I may regret it, if only because the Western Conference is awesome once again. There is a very real possibility that Utah nails the over on the win total (51.5) but still finishes 3rd or 4th, as has happened several times over the past two decades. But simply put, if you feel that they will win at least 52 games, it is more probable than not that they’ll be the first or second seed. So if you’re doing the first bet, you should do the second.

Also, last year absolutely proved that the top seed in the Western Conference is hugely beneficial, and Utah will definitely go for it to reap the benefits of their very-real home court advantage. Whoever ends up getting the 2nd play-in tournament spot for the 8th seed is going to be flawed in some significant way, and will be far easier to dispatch by a complete and sound No. 1 seed. And maybe the top seed will be welcomed with a sandbagging Lakers or a (gulp) Clippers team that just barely gets Kawhi Leonard back, but I think those types of teams are good enough to stay in the 3rd-6th seed range and out of the play-in tournament (and those teams surely want to avoid the tournament outright and will be playing hard in the regular season to accomplish as much).

While I foresee Utah taking a more conservative approach to players’ minutes and a more aggressive approach in experimentation as described earlier, the two best players (Donovan and Rudy) are going to play a shitload of minutes, and they won’t experiment so much that they lose their grasp on a top-2 seed.

Utah Jazz Make the Playoffs: -5000

Mark’s Bet:

I find it peculiar that Utah has worse odds than Milwaukee (-8000) or Brooklyn (a whopping -20000), but these are still ridiculously high odds that it’s not worth your money (a $100 bet will net you about $2 dollars if you’re right). And if Utah misses the playoffs, that means the season was a disaster and I’d rather not also be out money on top of it. It’s a no-win bet.

That said, -5000 is still “virtual lock” territory, and I implore Jazz fans every year in this Mitchell-Gobert-Snyder era to realize being a virtual lock to make the playoffs is a beautiful, beautiful thing that should not be taken for granted. We should always feel lucky to follow this great of a team that will be virtually assured a playoff spot as soon as you roll the ball out.

Specific NBA Finals Outcome

• Jazz to beat Nets: +2800
• Jazz to beat Bucks: +6600
• Jazz to beat 76ers: +15000
• Jazz to beat Heat: +20000
• Jazz to beat Hawks: +30000
• Jazz to beat Celtics: +30000

Mark’s Bet:

If you’re betting on the Jazz to win the title (+1600, more on that later), you might as well boost your juice a little by adding the above to your bet slip.

Most 3-Pointers Made Per Game: Utah Jazz +1000

(2nd-highest odds)

Mark’s Bet:

Gimme some of this action. Last year the Jazz were first in the league (16.7) by a full make per game over second-place Portland. That ratcheted up to a full 18.0 makes per game in the playoffs. I don’t necessarily think Utah is a good bet to be the league’s best offense by efficiency (or raw points per game, another betting category), but Utah will at least be way up there in the top five. That will be so, in large part, because of their hyper-attention to prioritizing shots at the rim or beyond the arc.

Golden State actually had a higher percentage of their shots last season come from three (52.1%) than Utah (47.1%)³. Denver was roughly equal with Utah there, and Oklahoma City was a shade under (46.8%). But I think Golden State has a lot more volatile inefficiency with every non-Steph Curry shooter (and who knows when/how much Klay Thompson contributes). Denver is without Jamal Murray for most of the year, and Oklahoma City is bad at playing basketball. Brooklyn’s also up there with high odds in this category, which seems normal at first glance, but they were 16th in attempt percentage and 7th in makes last year. They have great shooters, but there are a lot of midrange maestros on the team and will not clobber teams to death with outside shooting like Utah will aim to do.

And every Jazz shooter should continue their long-range-centric profile: Donovan has full offensive license but knows he is best at bombing away or ramming the ball down a defense’s throat. Conley has the juice from floater range but he’s otherwise hunting threes from everywhere. I don’t think Bogdanovic has taken an intentional midrange shot in 3 years. I don’t think Ingles has taken an intentional midrange shot in his NBA career. Royce O’Neale is tasked solely with shooting threes (although I always implore him to use his dribble-drive game more because there is a lot of untapped potential there). Clarkson also has full license, but ever since his arrival in Utah he’s figured out how to hunt the three over the long two.

One might fret over Rudy Gay’s shot profile with a diet of midrange shots, or if Eric Paschall is truly committed to shooting threes (which he claims doesn’t feel “natural” to him quite yet), but neither player is likely to be taking so much of a share of the offense to put a dent in this really solid bet.

This will be a scintillating offense to watch, both in style and results. Again, how fortunate are we?

Donovan Mitchell Points Per Game: 26.5

(Over: -115; Under: -115)

Donovan Mitchell 3-Pointers Per Game: 3.4

(Over: -115; Under: -115)

Mark’s Bet:

Donovan scored 26.4 points per game last year with 3.4 threes made per game. He shot 43.8% from the field and 38.6% from three. He bumped up his free throw attempts to 6 per game at an 84.5% clip.

He’s got another level to go from those levels last year. This isn’t just wishful thinking—it seems pretty clear that there are unrefined edges to his game that players of his caliber typically iron out. Namely, I think his upward trajectory will provide a more forceful and varied driving game, resulting in one or two free throw attempts per game and more efficient numbers in two-point range. This won’t come at a sacrifice to the volume of shots he takes from distance, and in fact should serve to give him more cushion on those attempts. We are going to be stunned how much easier his scoring will feel this year.

Over 26.5 points per game is a surefire bet in my opinion. 3.4 threes is a shitload of threes, but I think Donovan’s improved offensive game can easily lead to another tick up from distance as well.

He’s going to be awesome.

Rudy Gobert Rebounds Per Game: 13.5

(Over: -115; Under: -115)

Mark’s Bet:

Let’s go under here. Rudy’s averaged exactly 13.5 rebounds per game each of the last two seasons, and last year he played the fewest minutes of his career (30.8) since his sophomore season 7 years ago when he only started 37 games. So with an extra minute or two, he should go over 13.5, right? I’m actually hoping not.

I say “hope” because of the experimentation aspect I mentioned above. I’m hoping we see more switching, more zone, more… je ne sais quoi from the Utah defense this year in an effort to stretch Rudy’s capabilities so that he’s more… capable in sub-standard matchups in the playoffs. This might draw him away from prime rebounding position a little more.

I’m also hoping that the supporting cast exercises a little more verve on the glass—Royce occasionally will have an out-of-body experience on the glass and averaged a career-high 6.8 rebounds per game last year, but it would be stellar if he could hit 7 to 8 every night more consistently. Gay is the most positive rebounder Utah has had at the 4 spot in quite some time.

Of course, if Rudy nails the over, I won’t be upset. Prior to publication, there were some books that had Utah as the top rebounding team in the league—Utah was close last year, and if (a) Gobert hits the over and (b) the Jazz get a little more supporting help on the glass, that should also be a reliable bet to take.

Mike Conley Assists Per Game: 5.6

(Over: -115; Under: -115)

Mark’s Bet:

Conley’s first, disappointing season in Utah saw him only pass out 4.4 assists per game, his lowest since 2008. He was obviously out of sorts and not himself. Sure enough, last season, he established a rapport with everyone on the roster, and it resulted in a jump to 6.0 assists per game in only 29.4 minutes—much more in line with his career average. Utah’s bevy of excellent shooters and rim-runners should see him continue his healthy diet of dishes. His contract situation and All-Star selection are out of the way, so he should be free to play his game of team-first, valuable basketball with plenty of passes.

Sixth Man of the Year

Jordan Clarkson (+550)

Joe Ingles (+1200)

Mark’s Bet:

Let’s put some money on Jordan Clarkson, although these are high, high odds for Clarkson in a category that can be fluky from year to year. Clarkson’s runaway campaign was heavily buoyed by a remarkably efficient and scorching-hot start to the year.

While Clarkson cooled off immensely, he still put up raw numbers that easily kept his campaign afloat. Clarkson’s cooling allowed there to be discussion about Ingles’ remarkable season, but by then the media had their minds made up.

Clarkson may not have an explosive start to this season as he did last year, but I predict two things that will give him his second 6MOY award: One, he’ll have a decently efficient start, if not red-hot. I don’t think he’s as cold a player as he was to finish the year. He relishes in the freedom allowed him by Snyder, and every game he gets a tiny, tiny bit better at reading the defense and finding good shots. A healthy Mitchell and Conley will also relieve some pressure off of him, as well as having earned the hardware he might have been pressing for at the end of the season. He’ll have some, but fewer, head-shaking nights that crater his efficiency.

Second, there just aren’t many other solid candidates for the award. There are lots of good bench contributors across the league, to be sure, but none aim to have as significant an offensive role as Clarkson (and this is an offense-only award, if media voting history is any indication). Tyler Herro (+1000), Derrick Rose (+1200), Patty Mills (+1200), and Kevin Huerter (+1400) will all have notable bench offense responsibilities, but they won’t put up the same raw numbers as JC. If I were to bet on a non-Clarkson winner, I’d stab at Dennis Schroder (+2200) making a return to his OKC form as he tries to play up from a disappointing offseason contract offer. Schroder is probably Boston’s third-best scorer.

Jinglin’ Joe is a spectacular shooter and playmaker and should have his jersey retired someday⁴, and was a deserved 2nd place finisher last year. I just think Utah is going to be (or should be) very, very careful with his workload this year. Ingles had a long run in the Olympics immediately after the playoffs, and on top of the bubble two seasons ago has played a LOT of basketball in too short a time for his age. He also recently reminded us that he and his family haven’t returned to their native Australia to see their extended families in over two years due to various coronavirus restrictions. He’s been quite vocal that Australia will always be home #1 for them—not being able to make their annual pilgrimage home may be quite an emotional burden. And so I implore the Jazz to take it easy with Ingles this year, his protests to play be damned (especially since his games played streak is over). If that comes to fruition, Ingles’ raw numbers will appear quite paltry. I’d rather Ingles ramp up his usage in the playoffs (perhaps in place of Clarkson’s usage, even). If Ingles is squarely in the 6MOY conversation at the end of the year, I will be worried that he has over-exerted himself once again and will leave too much on the floor when the Jazz need him most.

Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert (+350)

Mark’s bet:

Gobert is the best defensive player in basketball, hands down, and that doesn’t portend to change this season⁵. Whether the media goes back to the tape and votes accordingly is a wildly different question that I’m not prepared to put money on. I was stunned to see the odds this high—tied for the highest with Ben Simmons (snort, chuckle)—because I think the public perception of Gobert’s defense is so negative right now. It’s unfairly negative, of course, for reasons discussed ad nauseam on this website and elsewhere. But while the media who votes for this award contains a few dozen reliable, smart Gobert voters, the remaining voters are total wildcards that will skew towards louder narratives.

There won’t be shortage of those narratives. Anthony Davis (+900) is expected to play far more minutes at center, and could drag a bad defensive roster to a top-5 defense and be a sexier pick. Joel Embiid (+1000) would attract media darling status with a wildly successful season in a post-Simmons world (keep an eye out for him for MVP, if he plays 72+ games). And Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1000) and Draymond Green (+2200) will always be on ballots for their ever-consistent defensive impact for good teams.

Giannis actually provides a decent facsimile for another reason I think Gobert might not attract DPOY attention. Last season, Milwaukee experimented way more on defense in order to try different looks and adjustments that they may need to deploy in the playoffs. Accordingly, Giannis wasn’t always in the same, reliable spots to be a terrorizing help and on-ball defender night in and night out, so his impact on defense was more muted (Milwaukee’s overall defense was also a little worse, in part due to this experimentation). His effort also waxed and waned on defense compared to his DPOY season, but he wasn’t exactly loafing out there either. I almost hope the same exact thing happens with Gobert—I’d love to see Gobert deployed in switch-heavy lineups from time to time, being tasked with guarding surprising assignments like Trae Young or Kevin Durant.

It may not be pretty, and when Rudy is exposed he can look sillier than most. One of my firm beliefs is that Rudy’s supernatural, fast-twitch athleticism and recovery is so awkward and unusual in a way that makes him such a great, unique defender, but those same, unusual attributes make him seem out of control when a mistake is made (even when he’s not actually out of control!). To put it crudely, Gobert doesn’t move like any other basketball player, so fans just think he looks silly on the court when he’s doing “normal” things. When other centers like Davis get beat by ballhandlers, they just look like they got beat, and the world moves on. When Rudy gets beat, his unique movements can unfortunately turn into gif-worthy spin-cycles or herky-jerky failed recoveries. This possible “exposures” might turn many media voters off from giving Rudy deserved DPOY votes, especially if Utah slips below first or second in its team defense ranking.

As mentioned above, though, that experimentation and sacrifice will pay dividends come playoff time. Just ask Milwaukee.

Most Valuable Player

Donovan Mitchell (+2800)

Rudy Gobert (+40000)

Mark’s Bet:

Utah would have to win 70 or so games to get MVP buzz at all, so this isn’t going to happen. But there’s a colorable scepter in the distance that looks like Donovan leaping to a 30 PPG season and a suddenly dominant defensive presence, embellished by a dozen-plus clutch superstar winning shots and highlights. +2800 requires a little bit more tangible evidence of that already having occurred in stretches, so maybe if Donovan takes a smaller jump this year, +2800 would be fun odds next year.

Rudy was indeed Utah’s most valuable player last season, but he would need to suddenly have a rounded and exciting offensive game to attract any sort of votes beyond token 5th-place votes (his actual value to the Jazz be damned). A bet at +40000 isn’t worth the paper the betslip would be printed on, but it’s fun that Gobert is actually getting noticed. That said, Bovada bothered to print up sucker-bet odds for Norman Powell and Tyler Herro (each at +100000), so it probably doesn’t mean anything.

Championship Winner: Utah Jazz (+1600)

Mark’s Bet:

These aren’t good odds, objectively speaking, for a bet. But this way I can afford all of the drinks I’ll be buying if the Jazz win the NBA Finals. LFG, Utah. Go get that first title.