Staff Post: Second Half, Ilyasova Impact, Bold Predictions

Ersan Ilyasova gives Utah another big body. (Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports)

Let’s get right back to it.

The Jazz’s season resumes on Friday evening after a long All-Star break. And as a sequel to last week’s group post, a team of writers is here to break down the second half. Last week’s post dealt with the first half and the All-Star game, but this week, our team drops, evaluates a recent signing, and guesses at what might be ahead for the team with the league’s best record.

Dig in!

The Jazz went into the break on a mini-slump (1-3). They resume Friday as they host Houston, then have a 5-game trip, then four more at home starting with the star-studded Nets. How do you expect them to fare in these first 10 games?

Isaac Adams: The Jazz should come out of the break rested and highly motivated after the mess that was the end of the 76ers game. As much as griping about the officiating is what made the news, the Jazz know they blew a very winnable game late. I’m going to predict them going 7-3 in the next 10 but that might be overly optimistic. Even a team like the Rockets (losers of 14 straight) may be a challenge as Christian Wood is reportedly nearing a return, and the longtime rivalry and long losing streak may provide extra motivation. I’m excited for the Jazz to match up against a Celtics team with Marcus Smart on Tuesday but the biggest game on my calendar is the March 24 matchup with the Nets. Given the way both teams have played this season, I don’t think it’s hyperbole to call it a potential Finals matchup.

Thatcher Olson: I think they will equalize somewhere between their win streaks and the recent mini-slump. I predict 7-3. I’m predicting a win percentage between 60-70% to finish the season, as opposed to the 75% of the first half. This should put them right around 50 wins in this shortened season, maybe even a few games above that mark.

Jake Gochnour: I expect them to fare quite well. The Heat have won seven of their last eight, the Sixers had an MVP performance from Embiid, and the Pelicans showed the talent they have amassed. Utah was a couple of possessions and shots from winning all three of those games. I don’t expect Utah to win every game in this “make or miss” league, but rest and recalibration will allow them to continue their hot streak before they dropped a couple of games.

Mark Russell Pereira: I’ll go one more and include the 11th game on the road in Memphis, as it neatly includes a third matchup against the Grizzlies in 5 days. Wood may be back for the Rockets and they are desperate to end a 14-game losing streak, but Houston also comes in on a back-to-back from Sacramento. So while it might be closer than antiipcated based sheerly on record, I certainly don’t think it’ll be a loss.

I say they lose to Toronto (back end of a road back-to-back) and sink the rest; 10-1. As for Brooklyn, obviously that’s a red circle date, but I think the Nets are still trying to figure out who they are as a team (especially after the addition of Blake Griffin, who has been a negative player all year). Memphis is punching way above their weight due to playing exceptionally disciplined basketball and endless energy–add in a now-healthy Justise Winslow and possibly (finally) Jaren Jackson Jr., and those three games will all be very difficult for Utah. I suspect they win all of them, but they will also stress me out.

David J. Smith: The Jazz actually enjoyed the luxury of a longer All-Star break than most teams, which bodes well for Utah’s older and perhaps slightly dinged-up players. They have had the last 10 days to let that 1-3 string stew in their minds. I think the Jazz players and coaches come out with a renewed focus to get back on track. That said, the early portion of the second half is tough. I forecast a 7-3 record over the next 10 (though you could sway me if you predicted 8-2 or 6-4).

What’s one specific bold prediction you have for the second half?

Isaac: I’m struggling to think of a regular season prediction that I feel would qualify as bold after the first half of the season we just saw. I keep track of a number of different win/loss projections and right now they all have the Jazz projected as having the best record in the NBA and the top seed in the Western Conference at the end of the year. I guess to be bold, I’m going to say that the Jazz will finish with at least a 6-game lead over every other team in the NBA.

Thatcher: I don’t know that there are many bold predictions left to make. The Jazz have the top seed, they just had three All-Stars plus their coach, and they’re the top shooting team in the league. The season has exceeded all my bold expectations. That being said, I predict that this Jazz team will at least play in the Western Conference Finals this year.

Jake: The Jazz will finish with the regular season with the best record in franchise history. The current best record in Utah Jazz history was the 1996-1997 season when they went 64-18, winning 78.1% of their games. Currently, they are sitting at 27-9 with a winning percentage of 75%. It isn’t crazy to assume they can achieve this feat due to the easiest remaining schedule in the NBA; the added motivation from the media, refs, and other players; and the new addition to the roster. We have seen the Jazz dominate the first half of the season, and they were 5 points and an overtime away from 4 of those losses. Utah has a chip on its shoulder going into the second half of the season, and I believe the final record will reflect that.

Mark: This is hard because Utah plays so predictably night in and night out, and everyone on the team is already playing at a near-optimum level most games. But Rudy Gobert is going to make three jumpers in a single game and I am going to lose my mind. 

David: First some not as bold ones. Derrick Favors will regain some of his bounce, Bojan Bogdanovic will regain the consistency that made him so important last year. Joe Ingles’ minutes will decrease a bit to keep him fresh for the playoffs.

The bold one? Donovan Mitchell will be particularly motivated in the second half and will make some further strides to be an even more potent go-to guy for the Jazz, even more so than he already is. I see him doing a few things more that will make him more efficient—more trips to the free throw line and less rushed plays when the team is down. I also see him putting more effort onto the defensive end to help check some of the many Western Conference scoring wings. I think he’ll play at an MVP level (though won’t be truly considered for that honor).

What do you expect the Jazz to get from recent signee Ersan Ilyasova?

Isaac: I have to admit that I haven’t been the biggest student of Ilyasova’s game but from what I’ve watched and his statistical profile, he should fit in nicely as a third player in the Bogdanovic and Georges Niang mold. I think he will be outside of the rotation to start but there is a possibility that if he plays well enough when given the opportunity that he could take Niang’s minutes. Either way, he’s a nice safety cushion in case of injury and should fit well into the Jazz style of play.

For all the fans who are disappointed the Jazz didn’t go after or weren’t able to grab post-buyout Griffin, it’s worth noting that Ilyasova has easily been the more effective and impactful player in recent years. That said, Griffin at his best was far better and there is probably a reason Ilyasova went through half the season without signing with a team.

Thatcher: Barring a more significant move, the rotation appears set. Ersan will primarily be injury insurance or blowout duty. There’s a small chance he cracks the regular rotation, but this isn’t a move that will have big impacts on the playoffs and crunch time. I could be wrong, but he’s not an upgrade over any current rotation players.

Jake: Ilyasova provides the Jazz with everything they are missing. The typical starting lineup for the Jazz has Royce O’Neale playing the power forward position. When the second rotation comes in, typically Niang takes his position. O’Neale and Niang are 6’4” and 6’7” respectively. Gobert and Favors rarely play together which has forced the Jazz to play relatively small ball all season, with one big protecting the paint. Other than Gobert and Favors, the next tallest players (playing significant minutes) are Ingles and Bogdanovic, both around 6’8”. With Ersan in the lineup, the Jazz roster is much more fluid and flexible. Quin Snyder can play Ilyasova alongside one of Gobert/Favors without sacrificing the ability to stretch the floor. This allows for better defensive lineups when teams play big. Additionally, Ilyasova is better suited to guard some of the agile centers that have been difficult for Gobert (ex. Jokic, Vucevic, Embiid). Great pick-up by the front office.

Mark: Ideally, Ilyasova never plays a minute in any game where everyone is healthy. He is not better than Utah’s current ninth man, Niang, and doesn’t provide the more valuable wing defense and presence of Utah’s 10th man, Miye Oni. His on-court style is like a bigger Niang but with worse shooting and playmaking. If Gobert or Favors is out for any period of time, it will be extremely interesting to see if Snyder uses Juwan Morgan as an undersized center who still plays the position in the same way on both ends of the court, or Ilyasova for a wildly different offensive look. I’m not optimistic about his defense if he needs to play the 5, but I could see him successfully taking a billion of his trademark charges if he spells Gobert–opposing playmakers won’t be used to the difference and might attack too aggressively.

It’s also worth highlighting how the Bucks’ bungling of the Bogdan Bogdanovic sign-and-trade literally cost Ilyasova seven million dollars: Ilyasova had a non-guaranteed deal that would have become guaranteed once he was traded as part of the sign-and-trade to Sacramento. Instead, the Bucks simply released him after the deal fell through. Ilyasova has made a fair bit of cash in his NBA career (hence why he was available–he was probably fine waiting until a playoff team wanted to add him for the stretch run), but that’s a huge amount of money to watch go up in flames because your team’s management screwed up

David: Ilysaova has always been a player that I thought would fit well with the Jazz, and now we get to see it. At the start, I view him mostly as insurance. After a slow start, Niang has played quite well. With his shooting and his much-improved defense, it seems unlikely that Ilyasova usurps him as the ninth man in Snyder’s rotation. But should injuries arise or load management becomes more of an occurrence, the veteran big will get opportunities. He was a solid contributor for the team with the NBA’s best record last season, so I think he can still play. At a minimum, he adds to the locker room and can give Snyder a different, taller look in different situations.

With two weeks left before the trade deadline (and then buyout season to follow), is there another realistic move you think they’ll make?

Isaac: I don’t think the Jazz will make a move, not because they don’t want to but because the Jazz are just asset poor. Due to limitations on trading first rounders because of the protections on the pick sent in the Mike Conley trade, Utah can’t trade a first until 2026 (without some specific protection language). Also, every player who makes enough money to help match salaries in a trade is a key part of the team. So as much as I’d love it if the Jazz could find a way to get a Larry Nance Jr., John Collins, Aaron Gordon or even Harrison Barnes, the Jazz can offer as much in trade as many other teams. That leaves the buyout market, a place where the Jazz have never really been players. As the best team in the NBA so far, the Jazz might be able to be players on the buyout market this year but I don’t see any game-changing players that fit with the team actually getting bought out. I don’t know why the Bulls would buy out Otto Porter Jr.’s contract but if they do and he is at all healthy the Jazz know his agent Mark Bartelstein quite well and there seems to have been mutual interest with the Jazz and Porter in the past.

Thatcher: As many fans have mentioned, I would love to see the Jazz find a way to get one more defensive wing. The main weakness to me is still guarding the superstar wings like Kawhi, LeBron, Harden, etc. O’Neale is a good to very good wing defender, but the Jazz could use one more to help. I just don’t know if the Jazz have the assets to make a move like that, or if a player like that is even available.

Jake: No. The difference between the Jazz and some of the other star-studded contenders is the value of their role players. It would be great to see LaMarcus Aldridge wearing navy and yellow, but I don’t think a declining center is worth sacrificing a role player. If Utah were to make an acquisition, I would love to see someone with playoff and postseason experience. The Jazz could use a veteran (even if just for the locker room presence) down the stretch.

Mark: For better or worse, Utah’s contracts are so difficult to trade that there is just no way they are meaningful participants at the trade deadline. In a pure vacuum, Bogdanovic, O’Neale, and Ingles are all the type of player and contract that could be shifted around for better options, but for obvious reasons there is just no way Utah actually sends those guys away. Ryan Smith seems to really not care about the luxury tax for the tiniest of improvements, which is a… luxury… for Jazz fans. So I could definitely see Utah sniffing around for young wing talent, as they did with Rayjon Tucker last year. Gosh, I was so high on Tucker last year. I wish he worked out better

David: In 1998, the Jazz were off the heels of their first-ever Finals appearance. And they had the league’s top record. That did not stop them from swinging the ill-fated Rony Seikaly deal that could/should have put them over the top. They knew they were close and saw a move that made a very formidable team even stronger. This 2021 version could be similar. Utah knows its rotation is one of the best in the Association. But it would not surprise me to see the front office swing a deal to become even stronger for the postseason. Chemistry is a major consideration, and you could jeopardize that with roster moves. But I also think the team’s leadership knows they are one of a handful of teams that could win it all, and chances like this do not happen every year.

At a minimum, the Jazz could be more of a buyout player than usually, as these teams tend to gravitate toward the contenders. Porter would make incredible short-term and long-term sense should the Bulls and he sever ties.

Call it now: Utah has a 2.5-game hold on the best record in the league and the easiest remaining schedule (by opponent record) of any Western Conference team. Will they hold onto the No. 1 seed?

Isaac: Among the projections systems I track, the lowest projected Jazz win total is 52 games while the highest win total for an opposing Western Conference team is 49 games. That’s a nice cushion. If the Jazz can just win 23 more games, I think they hold onto the 1-seed. That would mean a .639 record for the remaining 36 games, which is consistent with Jazz performance in recent seasons. Given the relatively weak schedule and the propensity for Snyder teams to improve in the 2nd half, I expect them to pull it off.

The other thing the Jazz can do to hold onto the 1 seed is beat the Lakers and Suns in their upcoming matchups. If they can split the remaining games with the Lakers and win the 2 games in Phoenix, the Jazz will have extended the lead over the two closest teams in the conference and will have secured the tie-breaker should any tie-breaking be necessary.

Thatcher: Yes they will. Though I don’t think the Jazz will quite keep up their torrid first half place, they should hold on. Ultimately the Lakers and Clippers will probably be jockeying for the 4 seed to avoid a second round 2/3 matchup between each other. I’m going to wager they’d still rather play the Jazz in round two. Phoenix will likely be the toughest competition for the top seed, but I don’t see them taking it from Utah.

Jake: Mitchell and company need to stay healthy if they hope to hold the No. 1 seed down the stretch. Utah has the talent, motivation, and schedule to maintain the top seed, but an injury down the stretch could be damaging. Additionally, shooting percentage is key to success. Utah has attempted a record number of three-pointers, and to keep winning they have to keep shooting well from downtown.

Mark: Yes, but Utah securing the 1-seed won’t matter because the Clippers will end up as the 4- or 5-seed, ensuring that Utah has to play both Los Angeles juggernauts on their way to the Finals. Oh, yeah, the Jazz will make the Finals.

David: The Jazz will indeed take advantage of the easiest second-half schedule to retain the Western Conference’s top seed. For them to accomplish this, they cannot have lulls like they did right before the break. Focus, determination, and teamwork will help propel them. Some of Utah’s top rivals have opted for load management in the past. Given this unique season, that could be more of a priority.