Staff Post: What We Learned (or Didn’t) from the Jazz’s Preseason

Can Gobert and the Jazz fix the defense in time for the regular season? (Melissa Majchrzak via utahjazz.com)

A half dozen SCH writers huddled up to talk about what we saw over the course of the Utah Jazz’s exhibition season and what it means to the 2019-20 campaign, which starts on Wednesday.

Dig in! 

What do you know about the 2019-20 Jazz after their five exhibition games that you didn’t know before?

Isaac Adams: I expected the Jazz defense to be a little worse after losing Derrick Favors and Jae Crowder, and I still believe that it will be just that: a little worse, and not catastrophic. That said, we definitely learned that the team is going to take some time to gel defensively. As bad as it looked, some of the defensive woes were just hot shooting opponents. NBA opponents shot .435 from 3 and .528 overall against the Jazz this preseason. For comparison, the historically bad 2018-19 Cavs defense only allowed .380 from three and .495 from the field.

Kincade Upstill: It’s going to take a little longer for this team to gel. The past couple of seasons, the Jazz have had a lot of continuity, due to keeping the core of their roster together. They not only turned over most of their roster this year, but that overhaul included key pieces, like the two borderline All-Stars who joined the team. Everyone is getting used to new teammates and even more challenging, new roles. Quin Snyder and his staff have their work cut out for them as the season approaches, since the Jazz face a very challenging schedule to start. The west is as brutal as ever and each game counts.

Dane Coles: The defense might be worse than expected. This isn’t a huge surprise after losing Favors but Jazz fans have grown accustom to a stifling defense. A more realistic goal for the Jazz may be a top ten defense instead of top three. Still, if the Jazz break the top ten in defense while having a top-five offense, that is a recipe for major success.

Mark Russell Pereira: The Conley-Mitchell-Ingles-Bogdanovic-Gobert¹ lineup will be a scorching nightmare for young, bad, tired, or lazy defenses. I thought it would be good, but the limited sample exhibited a collective intelligence that can execute second- and third-level decisions without thought. We’re going to see this lineup generate bafflingly-wide open shots; the difference from last year’s open shots is that they won’t be purposely forced by a defense leaving Crowder, Favors or Ricky Rubio undefended from beyond the arc. I’m truly giddy just thinking about it. 

Allen Reihmann: I have the Time Stone so there were no surprises. And I now know that Jazz fans vacillate between euphoria and doom like toddlers on a seesaw.

But I knew that before. Because, you know, the I have Time Stone.

Jake Gochnour: The Utah Jazz are vulnerable. Somewhere in the mix of all the preseason buzz and ESPN preseason power rankings, Jazz fans began to think that ending the season 3rd in the West would come easy. We learned in this preseason that the NBA is a very competitive league and success won’t come easy. Yes, the potential is high, but that potential will be achieved if the Jazz fight their way to get the victory in whatever way they can, not just coasting through the season because they got a few new additions.

Which Jazz player most improved their stock in the preseason?

Isaac: I think I’ve seen some variation on “he looks promising but don’t get your hopes up; he’ll disappoint you” from fans of every team Jeff Green has played for. Despite the warning, Uncle Jeff looked really good in the games he played. Given his expected role on the Jazz, he can be a great bench contributor. I was also impressed with Tony Bradley who hasn’t shown much in his first two years but is looking more like an NBA player every day.

Kincade: Even for a Green skeptic, he really impressed. After watching him more closely this preseason, his athleticism has stood out, and that’s something the Jazz haven’t had a lot of recently. His shot also has been better than expected. The Jazz signed Green to replace Crowder, and while he lacks Crowder’s toughness, he seems to be an upgrade in almost every other area. The most exciting thing Green brings is the ability to act as a playmaking power forward, which is a big change from what Jazz fans are used to.

Dane: Green dazzled with his elite athleticism and has shown immediate chemistry with guys like Joe Ingles. He has scored in almost every possible way. Threes, mid-range, post up and soaring dunks. His ability to operate one-on-one will attract a lot of attention and will be a great option when the Jazz need a bucket.

Mark: Donovan Mitchell. It was incredibly refreshing to watch Spida try new dribble moves, driving angles, and shot attempts in a preseason setting without two-plus defenders draped all over him. Sometimes he still hoisted up some of his typical cringeworthy contested floaters, but generally he knew how to work his newfound space in the paint to either get all the way to the rim or comfortably survey the perimeter for a good pass. His efficiency is clearly going to improve this season due to team design improvements and personal development. (I was also impressed by Green, but I’ll wait for his quality performances to sustain for much longer before I join the sixth fanbase in as many years to be too optimistic about him).

Allen: The obvious choice is Green, who took on the role of a seasoned and unflappable NBA vet. He does the right things at the right time and showed us he “has game” and will be a solid rotation piece. But I’m going with Royce O’Neale. His performance was solid and his on-court demeanor and swagger seems to have jumped from “young dude proving himself” to “now I’m the man and I know what I can do to you.” He gets his role, he embraces his role, he works hard, and he will be an elite 3-and-D wing.

Jake: Based upon the preseason, Bradley is a competitive back-up for Rudy Gobert. Bradley played well in all five games, racking up the game-high points in two of them. He was accurate from the field and was effective in his minutes played. Although he had less of an opportunity in the later preseason games, he still was able to enter the game and make an impact. After five impressive preseason games, Bradley is the answer to the recent Jazz dilemma: who can reinforce Rudy.

Which player showed that they still have significant work to do?

Isaac: The easy answer is Bojan Bogdanovic who often looked lost on defense and struggled to score on offense. Fortunately, it’s inconceivable that a shooter of his caliber will continue to shoot as poorly as .250 from 3 and .273 from the field. I was also disappointed in the minutes Ed Davis played. With both players, I think it’s more a matter of integrating into a new team and system than anything else. Once they’re in the flow of the season, I expect their pre-season struggles will be nothing more than a bad memory.

Kincade: Bogdanovic and Davis both seem uncomfortable in Snyder’s system. Both seemed to do more thinking that just playing and reacting. Bogdanovic is coming from the Pacers where he was the focal part of the offense (once Victor Oladipo was injured). Not only is he adjusting to a new role but Snyder runs in a bit more complex system than what Nate McMillan does in Indiana. In Davis’ case, he isn’t known for his pick-and-roll game, but he will need to get more comfortable playing that style under Snyder.

Dane: I’m not really worried about anyone’s individual game. Bogdanovic always shoots poorly in preseason, so I believe he’ll turn it on when the season starts. I think the work that needs to be done is for Bogdanovic and Mike Conley to keep learning the Jazz system. There have been many times where they have been out of place or forced a turnover because they don’t know the speed and tendencies of their new teammates. That will change, it just takes time. 

Mark: I really tried to not go for the easy answer here, if only because Bogdanovic is a proven commodity and I have unwavering trust in his capabilities and effort. But the intentional sacrifice the Jazz made in the ostensible Favors-for-Bogdanovic swap—defense and rebounding for shooting and lineup versatility—will be sorely felt if Bogdanovic continues to struggle. I’m not worried about his shooting at all, but I really crave improved defensive closeouts and a bit more rebounding heft when he’s the second-biggest Jazz player on the floor.

Allen: Emmanuel Mudiay is a man on a mission. From hell to paradise. He started as a hobbled Shangdong crouching tiger and eventually stumbled into the stagnant cesspool of knickerbocker purgatory. Young Emanuel now finds himself in Eden: the land of seagulls, shieldbacked katydids, few distractions and a gaggle of coaches ready to whip him into NBA shape. Get ready for the transformation.

Jake: Bogdonavic was a huge addition to the Jazz during this offseason, but he still has a long way to go. He did not look like the same Bogdanavic that averaged 18 points per a game and shot 49.7% from the field. Bogdonavic made a lot of high impact plays that can’t be recorded on the stat sheet, but as far as the numbers go, he has some work to do. He shot poorly from the field and was unable rack up points as he normally is able.

How real do you think the Jazz’s preseason defensive issues are going to be when the real games start this week?

Isaac: They are real and will continue when the regular season starts. But I don’t think that means they’ll persist throughout the season. I’m less confident now that the Jazz will be a top-5 defense, which was my hope before pre-season play started, but I still think they’ll be top-10 by the end of the season.

Kincade: There are plenty of reasons why it may have been so bad. Defense is all about communication; the more they play together, the better they should get. Rudy Gobert is coming off playing all summer for the France national team and doesn’t seem like himself yet. The Jazz preseason schedule was against some high-power offenses. The Bucks and Blazers were top five offenses last year and the Kings have athletes that play fast, and the Jazz struggle with speed. Defense isn’t something that you can just turn on when you need to: just ask the Lebron James-led Cavs from a couple seasons ago. The Jazz need to instill good defensive habits now and with the struggle so far, there is real reason for concern.

Dane: The issues are real but not unexpected. It’s impossible to add this many new players and not have issues early on. Last year, with no changes to the team, it still took 20 games to get the defense on track. This team is motivated to learn fast but it will still be a while before the Jazz have a powerhouse defense again.

Mark: Extremely real, if only because the issues will not be solved quickly and the Jazz have a relatively tough schedule of opposing offenses for the first ten games. Even Snyder admitted that the team was further along defensively at this point last year than they are now. That said, this is a smart, hard-working group and I do not expect the issues to last much past November. At the end of November, let’s see if there are any chronic issues that become apparent.

Allen: The defensive wild card is Bogdanovic. The bad news: Last season, his defensive +/- and DRPM landed in the bottom quartile, with underwhelming traditional stats including 69 steals and just one block. But on the brightside, he played for last year’s third-ranked defense and was part of two of the eight best lineups in the NBA², along with Miles Turner (elite), Thad Young (excellent), Darren Collison (poor) and one of Victor Oladipo (excellent) or Tyreke Evans (meh). And while Miles and Thad anchored this D, you don’t get to this level with large holes at the one and the three. Bogey is still thinking and not reacting and the game needs to slow down as he works his way through the flat spot of the Jazz system learning curve. I expect the deer to soon get out of the headlights and Bojan will be his old self in a few weeks.

The defensively questionable lineups will be Donovan-Conley-Bogey combos, with a dearth of length. These guys may have to outscore (vs. stop) opponents and Snyder must be thinking hard about augmenting these three with both Royce and Rudy. And he may be tempted to supplant one of the three with Dante Exum at times to provide more length and an improved overall D (while obviously sacrificing some O).

Jake: The Jazz defense was concerning, but after all this is preseason isn’t it? I don’t think a whole lot is going to change in terms of technicality, but attitude can be changed. At some point Gobert has to make a decision that he is going to dominate defensively as he has always done. Conley and Bogdonavic are used to a different style of defense and they haven’t always had the luxury of Gobert in the backlines ready to defend anything that comes near the rim. The defense will be fixed, but it will just be a matter of time for adjustments to take place

Did the preseason struggles change your overall view of the Jazz or your prediction for their win total?

Isaac: I don’t think so. I’m expecting the level of parity across the West to flatten out win totals across the board and think that there will be four or five teams clustered around 50 wins. I’ll raise my concern level if the Jazz continue to struggle like this 10 or 15 games in but for now I still expect them to be among the best teams in the West and to have homecourt advantage at the end of the season.

Kincade:  Yes, it has. I still expect the Jazz to be a playoff team but I’m not as confident about homecourt in the postseason, mainly because the team still doesn’t look comfortable playing with each other. About 11 Western Conference teams would be playoff locks in the Eastern Conference, so the Jazz are going to need to win early as they find their groove so they don’t lose too much ground in the race for home court advantage in the playoffs.

Dane: It doesn’t change my mind on the end product. By season end, the Jazz will be one of the most dominant and scary teams in the NBA. But you can’t help but worry about the win total, especially if it takes 20 plus games to get the defense right. A slow start could be devastating in the loaded west. This isn’t like previous years where the Jazz can go on long winning streaks late in the season. Unless the new players can gel quickly, the Jazz may find themselves out of home court advantage yet again.

Mark: No. My initial prognosis of the Jazz was that they would be (a) a dominant regular season team that pounded on weak teams and (b) a challenging playoff out that would struggle against top-end talent and experience. Both of those aspects will remain true: Even if the defense is, at worst, league average, the vastly-improved offense will disorient bad teams with extreme ease to allow the Jazz to get to a comfortable 55 wins. On the other hand, the relatively problematic depth and an inconsistent defense keeps me pessimistic about their chances to win a best-of-7 against the best teams.

Allen: I still having the Jazz with mid-50s wins and with the top seed, with the Clippers advancing to the finals. One concern is that Jazz’s 10-15 spots are all developmental and, while having youngsters in the pipeline is good, any injury that propels them into the main rotation could be problematic given how tight the west will be. If I am in Dennis Lindsay’s shoes, I’d think long and hard about sacrificing a couple of youngsters and adding established vets to the end of the bench. Guys who may have lost a step, but you know what you’ll get when you put them on the floor and who are satisfied with a “in case of fire break glass” role.

Preseason Rudy has been cruising and saving himself for the regular season. Making an All-Star team is important to him and he knows that if the Jazz are in a top 4 seed and his scoring improves (likely with improved spacing), he should finally be an All-Star. His leadership and energy are contagious and should propel the Jazz. So, unlike many seeing and sawing manic-depressive fans, I remain bullish on the 2019-20 season.

Jake: The Jazz right now are not quite where they need to be. At least right now, they will not be able to maintain the win percentage that we all expected. But that is the whole reason the playoffs are at the end of the season and not the beginning. They may not start the season off winning a high percentage of games, but as the season progresses, they will learn how to play together and eventually become that superstar team that we envisioned in the off season.