Staff Scrimmage: Bubble Burst in Game 7 & Where the Jazz Go From Here

These opposing guards put on an enthralling show in their first round series. (Mike Ehrmann via espn.com)

After a history-making, highly entertaining 7-game series against the Denver Nuggets, the Utah Jazz’s season is over. A 78-80 loss on Tuesday night in the series decider game ended the Jazz’s experience in the NBA bubble and concludes a weird season.

A few of our writers got together to reflect on the series, where the Jazz are at on their path to contention, and what they need moving forward.

1. What was the moment you’ll remember most from the Jazz’s 2020 postseason run?

Mark Russell Pereira: It would be fun to answer either (!) of Donovan Mitchell’s 50-point (!!!) games, but I can’t say those for two reasons. First, they aren’t singular “moments” in time that I can snapshot in my memory for years to come. And second, I truly won’t remember them more than Mitchell’s 8-second violation, the last Game 7 possession turnover, or Mike Conley’s rimmed-out three at the buzzer. I’ll probably remember the failed game-winner the most.

Isaac Adams: This wouldn’t be what sticks had the Jazz won, but I can’t get that eight second violation out of my head. The Jazz were in great position to win game 1 and then went on to win games 2-4. It was really close to a sweep and I don’t in anyway blame Mitchell for how the series ended, I just can’t get that call out of my head.

Trevor Gustaveson: The most memorable moment of the playoff series to me was definitely when Rudy Gobert spike blocked Nikola Jokic’s mid range shot attempt. It seemed like a turning point in the series that fueled the entire team, because it was clear that Gobert was not going to be able to take everything away from Jokic’s game. Having a block like that can give players a mental edge, and it took a well disciplined player in Jokic to not let himself get rattled for too long, even though he did seem frustrated throughout that game.

Clark Schmutz: There were a lot of high times in the playoffs, but I will always remember Gobert not only blocking, but just obliterating Jokic’s fade-away jumper in game 3. I personally loved watching that matchup all series and that was the apex for me. I’m also a huge Radiohead fan so I really appreciated this tweet from my friend Kris of Jokic’s humiliated face.

pic.twitter.com/tEgXY8zCIv

— Kris (@5kl) August 20, 2020

Jake Lee: At the end of Game 4, Paul Millsap blocked Mitchell and stood over him. I remember thinking to myself, “Does he realize who he’s doing this to?” It was such a bad idea. The next time down the floor, with under a minute left, Millsap got switched onto Mitchell. Donovan was ready. With a quick hesitation, Millsap was already backpedaling as Mitchell pulled up from three. Dagger. Jazz went up four with 50 seconds left. Mitchell finished with 51 points and seven assists. Legendary.

Kincade Upstill: This post season will be remembered as the time Mitchell exploded. He went from being a border-line All-Star, to the verge of superstardom. His two, fifty point performances in a playoff series were so impressive that only two other players have ever accomplished it, Michael Jordan and Allen Iverson. Game two of the series might have been one of his best performances ever, as he completely controlled every aspect of the entire game. The Disney Bubble will hold a special place in Jazz fans hearts, despite the round one loss, as being the time Mitchell became their next elite franchise player.

2. Only 12 teams have lost a series after being up 3-1. What one factor most changed the trajectory of the series in Denver’s favor?

Mark: Denver giving a crap on defense, trying new defensive schemes, and the Jazz failing to adapt accordingly. Michael Porter Jr. was a bit less lost as the series went on — in more limited minutes, to be sure — but it felt like the Jazz still didn’t try to make him work when he was on the floor. Jamal Murray and Jokic weren’t great defensively, but just the act of fighting over screens and/or contesting shots with alacrity made it just difficult enough. Gary Harris, however limited he may have been in returning from injury, was very capable on defense and always adds that “give a crap” factor. Finally, Denver made a more aggressive, risky defensive adjustment as the series went on, and the Jazz offense too frequently devolved into isolation basketball due to the players’ inability to adjust on the fly with team basketball principles. Denver left gaping holes for the Jazz to exploit if they moved quickly and decisively, and they rarely did. A shame for an otherwise well-coached team.

Isaac: Murray going super nova to a degree I doubt he will ever replicate. That is what won Denver games 5 and 6 and once it went to game 7 it was anybody’s series. I also think that the officiating got in Royce O’Neale’s head in game 5 – the Jazz had a solid lead and let up, and Royce was over aggressive to a fault, especially on screens.

Trevor: There are a lot of factors, the biggest of which was probably the shooting ability of Jokic. The Jazz went into this series with a pretty clear game plan that they would not send help on Jokic in the post when guarded by Gobert, and Gobert would help off of Jokic in pick-and-pop situations. The Jazz were betting that Jokic would eventually cool down to his normal percentages, and if not, they would tip their hat to him. They ended up tipping their hat, but that’s not to say a different game plan would have produced better results.

Clark: There were so many issues that led to the comeback, but I’d say the Jazz’s mental immaturity in not closing out the Nuggets in game 5 was the biggest factor. That’s something you learn and the Jazz aren’t a veteran playoff team yet. They are coming though.

Jake: Harris. In the last two games, Harris came back from injury and did exactly what the Nuggets needed: he defended. Harris’s On/Off swing on defense is in the 87th percentile of all players. In this series, Harris really bothered Jordan Clarkson in particular, who the Jazz leaned on fairly heavily in a few of their early series wins. In the first four games, Clarkson shot 36 for 74 (48.6%). In the last two, he went 9 for 23 (39.1%).

Kincade: Defense or lack thereof, is what ended up costing the Jazz this series. The Jazz could score on the Nuggets almost at will, averaging 119 points a game during the first six games of the series, but so could the Nuggets. This Jazz team had no answer for Murray and Gobert had to focus so much on guarding fellow All-Star, Jokić, that he couldn’t cover up the defensive deficiency of the team.

3. How different would the series have been with a healthy Bojan Bogdanovic?

Mark: I think the Jazz offense would have been so unstoppable that they would have either handled Game 1’s business with relative ease — even without Mike Conley — or they would have done enough in Games 5-7 to get one more win. The blowouts would have been arguably worse. Bogdanovic would replace virtually all Georges Niang minutes, relegate Clarkson to a tertiary offensive role, and certainly would have been a more capable than Juwan Morgan at filling in the middle once the Jazz went away from Tony Bradley. Even if just for that fateful last possession — where O’Neale was left completely unguarded in the corner, allowing Jerami Grant to make Mitchell hesitate and turn it over — Bogey in the corner would cause Grant to instead be glued to him to give Mitchell a more decisive opportunity. Alas.

Isaac: It’s so hard to say – the Jazz would have had more offensive punch and a better bench. I definitely think a healthy Bojan would have been a bigger factor for Utah than a healthy Harris was for the last two games for Denver or a healthy Will Barton would have been. But so much of both teams would have been different if either team had been at full health. I think the Jazz would have won game 1 with Conley available though. He made the right decision and the team was clearly capable of winning without him, but Conley swings game 1.

Trevor: Much different. While most people see Bogdanovic as just a lethal three point shooting threat, he is also basically the Utah Jazz’s only post up threat in mismatches. Had Bogdanovic played, the Jazz would have likely targeted Jamal Murray and forced him to battle Bogdanovic in the post quite a bit. That would take a heavy toll on his body and I don’t think he would have put up superstar numbers if he had to play that type of defense. In addition, Mitchell would have been able to take a lot more plays off and save his energy for the stretch runs of games. There is also something to be said about replacing the minutes of end-of-rotation players with a player of Bogdanovic’s caliber.

Clark: I think hugely different. It would have saved the Jazz from going so deep into their bench, which would have saved a host of problems. But more importantly, Bogey’s strengths were exactly what Utah needed in this series: a willingness to shoot contested 3s and an ability to generate his own midrange looks late in the shot clock. He would have swung game 7 alone.

Jake: I actually think it would have been just as close. The biggest difference would have been having somebody that could hit shots when the team goes cold. He was that dude for the Jazz all year. And there were spurts in this series where we had nobody. Game 7 is a great example. I don’t think the first half happens like that with Bogdanovic out there.

Kincade: Bogdanovic would have completely changed the series, giving the Jazz another offensive weapon to help out score the Nuggets. The Nuggets were without two of their better defensive players in Barton and Harris (until game six) and couldn’t stop the Jazz. Imagine how unguardable Jazz offense would have been with Bogdanovic in the mix. The Jazz, without Bogdanovic, were a pretty small team, starting O’Neale as the power forward and he is only 6-foot-4. Even though he isn’t known for his defense, a little more size and length would only have helped the Jazz defense out.

4. How did the last seven games change your assessment of where the Jazz are at overall?

Mark: I picked Denver in 5 because I didn’t think Utah had enough firepower without Bogey and Conley (for two games). I didn’t think Utah could score 110, 120 points per game. Turns out, Mitchell is far closer to being a top-10 player in the NBA than I thought, which elevates Utah’s ceiling to “legitimate contender” status with everyone healthy (not a sure thing, obviously). Clarkson’s shot selection and defense were significantly better — if not all that great — and so I support resigning him, in the hopes that the 28-year-old will continue to improve his shots and defense in year two as a Jazzman under Quin Snyder. Ultimately, I’m thrilled that Utah gets to start next season as a playoff lock, which is a monumental feat for a small market team.

Isaac: It’s hard to ignore the last three games but those first four were fantastic. Mitchell showed his ceiling is higher than we imagined, which has me optimistic.  Conley was great throughout his time in the series. But I was disappointed in O’Neale and Joe Ingles, two role players who didn’t produce at the levels I usually expect. The Jazz are about where I thought they were, able to compete in the playoffs but not able to go far.

Trevor: Not much. I don’t like to overreact to one game sample sizes, but when it comes to top end talent in a crucial game 7, you should judge that top end talent based on how the players conduct themselves. For Mitchell and Gobert, they both had an abysmal start to the game, and their resolve to keep fighting and get their team back in the game was an affirmation of why the Jazz organization is so invested in them. I’ve always been a big believer in Gobert, but to be honest I was worried about his future with the Jazz if he did not show up and have a fantastic game. His second half more than made up for his first half, and I feel confident that he will continue to be a cornerstone of the organization for years to come.

Clark: It was an emotional roller coaster. It felt like too much to ask the Jazz to beat Denver without Bogdanovic. Then the Jazz went up 3-1 and it felt unreasonable to accept a loss. In the end, the results weren’t anything that should change a Jazz fans feelings about the team, but the process was weird. If Donovan and Rudy want to run it back, the Jazz should do that. They will need to hit on the margins but they are close to contention.

Jake: For the Jazz as a team, I still don’t think they’re a contender. But they’re close. The biggest change for me was how I see Mitchell. The way he was able to control games was incredible. He definitely hit a new level and I’m excited to see how that affects this team going forward. They always say to win a championship, you need a superstar. Well, Mitchell is getting pretty close.

Kincade: Before, the Jazz were a solid playoff team that probably wasn’t good enough to win it all. Now after seeing Mitchell establish himself as a bonafide superstar in the league, he elevates this team into another tier. Most teams don’t win championships without one of these kind of players and the Jazz not only have this in Mitchell, but also have the most dominant defensive player in the league. The Jazz just need to continue tweaking the roster around these two players and they should see plenty of long playoff runs in their future.

5. What do the Jazz need most as they keep trying to find a way to move into the contender class?

Mark: Other than health luck, the Jazz bench desperately needs defensive chops. Acquiring Clarkson was a move to simply boost the offense of a bricktastic bench, but the defense still made the Jazz bench a sore, sore weakness. Don’t forget, the Jazz bench defense was a relative strength when Utah had the luxury of keeping defensive stalwart Derrick Favors on the floor as a rim protector. Contending teams typically are able to have star power on the floor at all times, and at the very least the Jazz should make it more difficult to score for those stars than its current iteration.

Isaac: It would be great if the Jazz could catapult their way into contention the same way the LA teams did, by getting the best players in the league to sign with them in free agency and force trades there. Since neither of those is likely to happen, the Jazz’s most pressing need is the same type of player every team is trying to find: multi-talented wings who can defend multiple positions and are a threat on offense. Luckily, they have the same MLE as many other teams entering free agency and the NBA in its infinite wisdom gave the Jazz the losing tiebreakers for the playoffs and the losing tiebreakers for the upcoming draft. (Sorry, not feeling great about the team right now.)

Trevor: The answer should be obvious that the Jazz’s number one need is length and size, without sacrificing shooting if possible. If they do need to sacrifice shooting, they’ll need to be an elite defensive team once again. The power forward position is screaming for a change for this reason. It’s just really tough to not get killed on the boards with a shooting guard sized player at the power forward position, and it hurts defensively even if that guy is your defensive specialist. The Jazz need to do everything in their power to get Derrick Favors back on the team. It would help Ingles a ton, and that’s basically a guarantee as we have already seen plenty of film on his chemistry with Favors. We also have a good idea that the Jazz can be an elite defensive team with Gobert and Favors sharing the floor. If you couple that with the superstar offensive power of Mitchell, I’d like to see what would happen.

Clark: The Jazz need one to two more guys that can play two way ball in the playoffs. One of them should be a wing/guard defender. One of them is Bogdanovic.

Jake: Assuming the Jazz keep Conley and Clarkson, they need to shore up their bench with a solid backup center and an athletic wing that can guard a variety of positions. I don’t think the G League players are there yet. That was pretty apparent over the last few weeks. And like many Jazz fans, I can’t stop thinking about bringing Favors back. He would be a perfect fit. 

Kincade: This past offseason the Jazz went from being a dominant defensive team to being more offensive minded. The front office needs to find a happy medium between the two. In the playoff series loss, the Jazz lacked having a good backup center, they would just bleed points when Gobert wasn’t in the game. They also need to add another wing defender who can guard some of the quicker players in this league. O’Neale is the wing defender they have, but another would be a nice luxury to have.