Starting 5: Writers Weigh in on Surprises, Success Measures & the Future

Will Collin Sexton start sooner or later? That and other questions from a quintet of Jazz writers. (Rick Egan via sltrib.com)

What have we learned about today’s and tomorrow’s Jazz this October?

Five Salt City Hoops writers react to what we’ve seen so far in the preseason of the new-look Utah Jazz, including by projecting the short and long-term future of several of the young pros who will define this transitional period of Jazz basketball.

What’s something we’ve learned about the Jazz’s pecking order that has surprised you?

Clark Schmutz: I am a little bit surprised that Sexton looks like he may not start for the Jazz although I understand wanting to avoid a tiny backcourt with him and Mike Conley, both listed at 6’1″. The former Cav seems fine right now with a bench role, but is that because he thinks he will be put in the starting lineup when he’s healthier? I’m going to keep an eye on that situation because balancing that dynamic will be a test for Will Hardy.

Tyler Crandall: The most notable exclusion from Hardy’s regular rotation has to be Ochai Agbaji. The rookie wing was hyped as a late lottery pick, the Cavs were reluctant to let him go, and he was the most intriguing future piece in the Donovan Mitchell deal. However, because Agbaji is under team control for so long, it’s probably less pressing to develop him and figure him out.

Zarin Ficklin: Hardy has favored veterans in his initial rotations. Intriguing rookies like Agbaji and Simone Fontecchio have seen little play. There are some plausible explanations: Hardy may be establishing a culture of earning minutes. He may be showing respect to the veterans, hoping for locker room dividends. He may be helping the front office build trade value in players that may not be on the roster later in the season. And it’s not like Agbaji or Fontecchio have blown the doors off in their debuts. It makes long-term sense for the Jazz to give their rookies reps this season, but Hardy has a lot of objectives to balance, and preseason is a good time to try things that may not hold through the full season.

Mark Russell Pereira: Sexton not starting is a head-scratcher for me. Other than Conley’s playmaking, Sexton has the best, most established NBA skill of any player on the roster: efficient volume scoring. Jazz fans very much understand the defensive peril of starting two 6-footers in the backcourt, but I care a little bit more about the team figuring out their offense than their defense. Kelly Olynyk needs to start as the only competent center, and Lauri Markkanen is way too good to keep on the bench. So for the two remaining starting spots alongside Conley, I was surprised to see Hardy go with Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt. I would much rather see what Sexton can do as a starting guard alongside Conley than either of Beasley or Vanderbilt, who I project as just “guys” who won’t mean as much to the Jazz rebuild when all is said and done.

David J. Smith: One of the more surprising aspects of coach Hardy’s rotation is the size he puts on the court. Throughout the preseason, he has thrown out some extremely tall lineups, such as the Markkanen-Olynyk-Walker Kessler trio. After being outsized at nearly every non-center position the past few seasons, this is a major difference. It extends to the backcourt, too. While the overall defense has struggled, this length may contribute to more forced turnovers and deflections, two areas the Quin Snyder regime intentionally didn’t pursue as much.

Who is going to be the Jazz’s best player this season?

Clark: The logical candidates in my mind are Conley, Sexton, Jordan Clarkson, and Markkanen and I’m going to go with Markkanen. It’s the right combination of skill, role, and timing for him to break out.

Tyler: This is harder than it seems. You’d want to consider Conley or Clarkson as obvious candidates because they are experienced and proven players that we know and have played on very good Jazz teams. But I also don’t think either of them will be the focal point of the Jazz offense (or defense, ha). My bet would be on Markkanen. He has a lot to prove right now. He’s never really shown his ceiling in the NBA world. Sexton has something to prove, but he’s been a top scorer before. Markkanen is the most unproven guy with the highest ceiling who is also far enough into his NBA career to be able to make a meaningful impact.

Zarin: While Conley could end up with the best advanced metrics, and Sexton has recently averaged over 24 points per game, Markkanen might end up the team’s most productive player. At 25 years old and with the ability to play multiple positions, he could be the team’s minutes leader with a clear-cut starting role. He’s coming off a breakout Eurobasket performance, and excelled his second year in Chicago as a featured offensive player. The Jazz have the opportunity to test him in a similar capacity.

Mark: Markkanen is primed for a big year as a focal point of an offense led by a good coach. I don’t think Markkanen has an All-Star-level ceiling, but I expect him to be a passing mention in writers’ All-Star selection columns and opinions. Markkanen has grown a lot as a player while operating as a tertiary option for weird and bad Cleveland and Chicago teams. I believe there is a great chance that his improvement will be way more apparent as a primary focus of the offense. I’m betting on a 20 points, 8 rebounds per game season from Markkanen.

David: My opinion about this question wavers from night to night. Markkanen’s skills are very tantalizing, and it feels like he will certainly be one of the two main offensive options this season. Yes, he has been inconsistent, but he is very talented. Sexton is still finding himself, but I think he ultimately will be Utah’s leading scorer. I am going to cheat here, so as of today, I’ll go with Markkanen and Sexton. Check back with me again tomorrow and I may respond differently.

Which current player has the best chance of being part of the next *contending* Jazz team?

Clark: Given contract control and age, Kessler and Agbaji are the obvious answers. If I had to choose one, I’d go with Kessler. As a bonus I’d also say that only three Jazzmen will be on the next contending team: Kessler, Agbaji, and Markkanen.

Tyler: Going back to the first point: Agbaji is likely the current player who best fits the modern NBA mold. He’s under team control for a long time and will be peaking, as a probable 3-and-D wing, just as the Jazz are aiming to resurface as contenders. Unless he shows out in the next season or two and the Jazz get an offer they can’t refuse OR he doesn’t actually reach the potential it seems that he has, then Ochai is the most likely to be on a future contending Jazz team.

Zarin: I’m going to throw a curveball and say Kessler. While any of the youngish vets like Markkanen, Sexton and Vanderbilt could contribute toward a contending team, they have a higher chance of being traded or leaving in free agency by the time the Jazz are contention-ready. Walker and Agbaji have the best chance of being on the team long-term due to their rookie-scale contracts. While Agbaji has all the tools of a coveted wing prototype and is a lottery talent, I’ve just seen a lot more out of Kessler in the first three preseason games. Sure, those last four words are important. We’ve seen very little, and Agbaji could easily end up the better player. But from the glimpses we have seen, Kessler already looks like he belongs in the league, positional trends aside.

Mark: Agbaji is very unlikely to be a star player, but he seems primed to be a very solid defender and shooter. Because Agbaji doesn’t really project to have playmaking skills, he’s probably not going to command a huge contract once his rookie deal expires. That is to say, I can see the Jazz keeping Agbaji for a long time on reasonable contracts, so he has the best chance of factoring into a good Jazz team down the road.

David: The Jazz have several promising players that will get ample opportunity to prove themselves worthy of being a cog or in some cases, a cornerstone, for the team’s future. Again, Sexton and Markannen have multiple years on solid contracts, so will get the chance to show their long-term value. It is hard not to be excited about rookie Walker Kessler. He is smart, moves well without the ball, has great defensive instincts, and plays within himself. I’ve been impressed with his agility on-the-ball and as a help defender. He may end up being the best player that came to Utah in the Gobert trade.

What young player are you most interested to watch grow this year?

Clark: Agbaji. Kessler will improve for sure, but I’m not sure that he has as much potential to expand his game as the rookie from Kansas over the next 82 games.

Tyler: Kessler. I’m not really ever super excited about centers. Especially traditional centers. And I doubt Kessler is someone who will ever be a household NBA name outside of Utah, or wherever he ends up in the future. But he is looking to be a player that is going to outperform his draft position and be a rotation-level player for years to come. This may be jumping the gun since he’s only played some preseason, but it will be fun to see what impact he has as a rookie.

Zarin: Building on my previous answer, I’m obviously intrigued by the idea of Agbaji — the team will always need a supply of athletic wings that can shoot and play passable defense. But Kessler has won me over. NBA teams also need rim protectors that can set screens and roll to the rim, as boring as that prototype may be. Even if Kessler ends up as a dependable backup center, that makes the Gobert deal even better.

Mark: He’s not the youngest guy, but I am most interested in seeing if 26-year-old Simone Fontecchio is a real player. Guys who come from overseas in the middle of their career are a weird paradox–it is immediately clear whether the NBA game is too fast or physical for them, but they also need a bit of time to figure out their impact. So it doesn’t appear Fontecchio will have a lot of rotation minutes early on, but I’m anxious to see when he gets some burn to at least identify if he’s worth keeping around to develop. The concept of a 6’8″ sharpshooter who gives a shit on defense is extremely tantalizing for a rebuilding team.

David: He has not gotten much playing time yet, but Agbaji intrigues me a lot. He has an NBA body and throughout his collegiate career, he improved each season. That shows a desire to work hard and improve. There is a lot of backcourt and wing depth on the roster, and the Jazz may have to prioritize showcasing some veterans these first few weeks and months. Agbaji will get a chance and once he does, I will be watching keenly to see how he adapts and progresses.

What will be your personal measure of success for the Jazz’s season?

Clark: I think I speak for many fans when I say the main goal for a successful season is to finish with a bottom-three record to maximize lottery odds. After that I’d say consistent roles for the players under 24.

Tyler: The only goal for this season is to get some reps for the young guys and for the team to figure out who they want to be part of the core moving forward. There’s too many young guys to keep all of them. There will be a consolidation trade at some point. And the sooner we can figure out who those guys are, the sooner we can fill the rest of the gaps and find the next guys. I say that as a measure of success because that’s the stuff the Jazz can control. The lottery is luck and I won’t tie success to something that is outside of their control. As an aside, I personally don’t think it’s extremely important for the Jazz to end up with a bottom-three record, which they do have some control over. The odds are just too flat for it to make a meaningful difference. But I do want the Jazz to get lucky.

Zarin: Finishing in the bottom, or at least bottom six, will be on everybody’s minds throughout the season. Victor Wembanyama’s talent is simply expectation warping. Securing a 28% chance at either Victor or Scoot Hendersen seems like the prudent long-term target. That said, the Jazz will be juggling multiple priorities beyond draft position. Other prolonged tanks have generated poor culture and I expect Hardy to establish winning habits. I’d prefer Hardy and the players try to win, and leave the win/loss manipulation to the front office. I hope the players will play hard. In the past few years we’ve seen teams bursting with talent but sometimes lacking in the effort category. I’m sure Jazz fans would embrace a team that puts it all on the floor, whatever the final score may be.

Mark: I want to have fun. I know that seems like a dense, broad goal that seems stupidly unattainable, but I am not personally ready (and I don’t think Jazz fans at large are truly ready) to sit through constantly bad basketball. I know the Jazz are going to lose a bunch of games, and I obviously support acquiring a great draft pick. But I am hoping there are a few games where the young guys pop and they take down a contender, or Clarkson scores 30 points in a quarter, or we get an absurdly enjoyable overtime game where Kessler makes a clutch defensive play. I’m not rooting for wins, but I’m not rooting for losses either. Let’s have some fun with this weird team.

David: This may be too simplistic, but a Jazz team that gives great effort even while making myriad mistakes is one the fan base will love and support. This needs to happen on both ends of the court. Hustling, diving after every 50-50 ball, displaying teamwork—these are all characteristics many Jazz faithful hope to see. Fans also want to see a team that truly likes each other. The past few Utah squads have been very, very good. But last season was rough on many counts. The expectations are MUCH lower this year, but if these youngsters lay it out there and show unity, this season will be a success despite what the final record may be.