Storylines and Predictions Part 1: Rest, Defense & Pushing Past Playoff Frustration

October 14th, 2021 | by Zarin Ficklin

Can the Jazz tap into enough health, perimeter defense and playoff mojo to make this a special season?

Just like that, another season is upon us. If there’s a silver lining to the chaos that the coronavirus brought to the NBA (not to mentions our lives), it’s that the last two offseasons have been shorter. Jazz basketball is right around the corner! After one of the most enjoyable regular seasons in franchise history, followed by another heart-wrenching playoff exit, what are we to make of this year’s campaign?

The Jazz are a great regular season team, but…

At this point I’m sure we’re all tired of this talking point: the Jazz are a great regular season team, but how far can they make it in the playoffs? It feels like every national perspective on the Jazz hinges on this thought. And yes, it’s true that the Jazz blew a 3–1 lead against the Denver Nuggets one season, and then lost four straight to the Kawhi-less Clippers the next season. And then Jazz fans counter with “yeah, but the injuries,” which also has merit. It’s an endless what-if game, that won’t find resolution until the Jazz finally make it over the playoff hump or break up the team.

It should be a strange regular season. The Jazz are expected to be a great regular season team once again. They could repeat as the top seed. And yet they won’t get the same recognition as last season because it won’t be surprising and the pressure of playoff success looms so heavily. Would the league’s best record and a generous helping of individual player awards be as sweet this season?

I’m sure many fans would like to just fast forward to the playoffs. Milwaukee Bucks fans can relate: their team enjoyed the league’s best record two consecutive years but with disappointing playoff performances. And yet their story has a happy championship ending. The Jazz team takes heart knowing their story could be the same. It’s a grind to win a title, and the league’s best record is no guarantee.

Prediction: This storyline is too broad and volatile to make a specific call on. It seems clear the Jazz will compete for the top seed, with a good shot at at least a top-3 finish in the West. Injury timelines for stars like Klay Thompson, Kawhi Leonard, and Jamal Murray could drastically change the landscape. The optimist in me believes the Jazz can win the West if healthy, which gets to the crux of the issue: everything hinges around player health. With that asterisk in the mind, the Jazz have as good as chance as ever.

 

Resting players and end-of-bench opportunities

Speaking of health, one of the biggest messages out of training camp is that having a healthy team come playoff team is a massive priority. More specifically, having a healthy Mike Conley Jr. is a massive priority. Conley may feel a sense of relief after his second season with the Jazz. His first season was up-and-down, but last year he proved he could fit with this group and along the way earned his first All-Star appearance. Perhaps that — coupled with nagging hamstring injuries — is enough to convince him to reduce minutes and take games off this season.

Joe Ingles could be in the same boat. While Joe had a career year by many metrics, the ball-handling burden he carried due to other injuries on the team weighed heavy. I’m sure the team would like to preserve him for the playoffs and keep him in a supportive role.

Then there are minor injuries to Bojan Bogdanovic and Rudy Gay. The Jazz simply have a lot of players over the age of 30. This means that end-of-bench guys could play meaningful minutes in the regular season.

The most interesting minutes battle will be between guards Miye Oni, Trent Forrest, and Jared Butler. Oni was the injury replacement guard for much of last season. His perimeter defense fills one of the team’s biggest needs. His corner three is valuable in the Jazz system. But his exorbitant fouling and inconsistent accuracy made him hard to keep on the floor at times. Forrest is an excellent defender with size and has a great feel for running the pick-and-roll. His shot is his glaring weakness, but he had a breakout Summer League performance. Jared Butler is a much-heralded rookie, with a solid across-the-board skillset. His off-ball shooting and solid defense makes him a great theoretical pairing with Donovan Mitchell. But history shows that it’s hard for a first-year guard to contribute in this league.

Prediction: I think we’ll see the Jazz rest players more than we ever have. As long as the Jazz are in the mix for a top-3 finish we’ll see Conley, Ingles, and other older players play fewer minutes or miss end of back-to-back games. For the guard contest, count me in on the Jared Butler hype! For one, it’s fun to root for a young player with this much upside. We should do the responsible thing, and mention that we’ve only seen Butler play two pre-season games, that he’s on a deep team, and rookie guards tend to struggle, blah blah — but the buzz around him reminds a bit of the energy surrounding Mitchell’s summer league. Butler has far less pressure than Mitchell had. Even if Butler doesn’t contribute in high-stakes settings, his success is a big deal for the team moving forward. If he looks to be a rotation-quality player the Jazz have more flexibility to make deals or succession plans as older guards age out. I have more thoughts on this that I’ll write about in the future.

 

The perimeter defense

If playoff trouble has been the biggest talking point around the Jazz, perimeter defense is the second. The kind of go hand in hand, because the Jazz were still an incredible defensive team in the regular season. Was the postseason exploitation caused more by the Clippers’ unique personnel or Utah’s backcourt injuries? Obviously it was a bit of both, but my belief is that if Conley and Mitchell were healthy we wouldn’t be talking about this much right now.

If the issue is more foundational, then the Jazz might be in trouble. I’m very excited by the Gay signing, but I’m not sure he impacts the perimeter defense too much. He won’t match up against opposing starters often, and he may be assigned to guard bigs more often than penetrating guards anyway.

The Jazz need their guards to step up. Conley is already solid — given his size and age, he defends admirably. He’s a plus defender, even if his eye-popping advanced stats are partially due to his tied-at-the-hip minutes sharing with Gobert.

It’s hard to ask for more from Mitchell with the offensive load he carries, but he’s the player who can most improve the team’s perimeter defense. He’s young and has the wingspan and athleticism to make a defensive jump. We’ve seen it spurts, including his recent pre-season performance. We saw him slow down Murray in the final games of the Nuggets series after no other Jazz player could — but Mitchell ran out of gas on the offensive end. It’s a tricky balance.

And then there’s Jordan Clarkson. Let me start by putting on a ruthless general manager hat. I have to, because Clarkson is a great human being and one of the most lovable Jazz players in recent history. He’s an incredible locker room presence, ambassador for the team, and a joy to watch. He just won the sixth man of the year award. I’m sure you’ve a sensed a ‘but…’ coming. It’s this: if perimeter defense continues to be an Achilles’ heel, I think the simplest solution is to leverage Clarkson’s value to trade some offense for defense. If Clarkson were swapped for a defensive player who can knock down catch-and-shoot threes, would the team be more matchup proof? De’Anthony Melton and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are two examples who match salaries. But this line of thinking is premature. Clarkson brings a lot to the table, and he has room to grow in efficiency and even defense. I think the Jazz will wait and see how things play out. But as mentioned earlier, if Butler is ready it gives the team options.

Prediction: While perimeter defense remains a weakness, I think the Jazz are fine as constructed if they’re healthy. The formula works, and I believe last postseason was more exceptional circumstance than core problem. That said, I think there will be some rumblings around the trade deadline. Utah probably won’t need to make a deal, but if they find a good deal that trades some offense for perimeter defense, I wouldn’t be surprised.

 

The switching defense

There’s another type of defense that the Jazz will look to solve, this one from opponents. I wouldn’t be surprised to see most teams try a switching defense against the Jazz. Utah’s guard rotation can generally punish this. Obviously this was a problem against the Clippers when health failed.

Most people are more curious about Rudy Gobert. We saw him seal and post up against smaller defenders during his silver-medal-winning Olympics run. Can he emulate this in the NBA? If Rudy can consistently pack it on smaller players the Jazz become much more matchup proof. His teammates made it a point to feed him in his first playoff season. On a team that may already have a problem of not enough touches, will we see Gobert get the ball more often?

We’ll also be watching the other Rudy. Gay looks to replace minutes previously taken by Georges Niang and Derrick Favors. Neither of those players have the isolation skills that Gay has. Gay could prove another tool against switching defenses. We saw Bojan Bogdanovic have success in the post when circumstances dictated it. Let’s see if Gay can follow suit.

Prediction: I don’t think Gobert is going to increase his field goal attempts by much or add ground-breaking post up moves. I think some marginal improvement from the big man, Gay’s addition, and a healthy guard rotation collectively allows the Jazz to nullify switching defense

 

New branding

This last one is just for fun. It’s been a hot topic, and I’m a designer by day, so it’s something I have a lot of thoughts about. Owner Ryan Smith has confirmed that the Jazz are rebranding to black and white and something. New collateral like the team’s printable schedule seems to indicate that yellow will be part of the new look as well.

Any organization that makes a big brand change encounters initial backlash. Many of us just don’t like seeing big changes, especially to something with as much emotional investment as a sports franchise. But that backlash usually dissolves as time passes and people forget about the previous brand altogether. For example, do you ever think about the old Facebook wordmark or shade of blue? I don’t give it much brain energy. But to be fair, sports are a little different. We associate eras with branding more strongly. The objectively ugly, yet still endearing purple mountain branding evokes strong feelings. Most of those feelings are nostalgic and positive because of the associated team success. This is a reason this new re-brand is well timed. This current Jazz team is really good. A decade from now, the rebrand can be associated with a new era of success. Likewise, if this iteration of the team turns out to just now work in the playoffs, the rebrand pairs well with big changes as well.

Personally, I’m very excited for the new direction. Despite strong history with shades of purple and recent popularity with the desert color scheme, Jazz branding is all over the place. Look at fan-worn jerseys in the Vivint Arena, and you’ll find purple, baby blue, navy, forest green, shamrock, gold, and gradients of yellow to red. Black and white as a foundation makes sense. It’s something new, but neutral enough to work with other colors (like yellow). Yes, the Nets use black and white. But branding among sports teams will almost always overlap.

The Jazz’s schedule graphic hints at the new color identity.

Prediction: I think the new branding will be mostly black and white, with some yellow accents (the same bright yellow shown in the schedule from the team’s design department). Initial reactions will be very polarizing, but I trust it will look good. Also, I don’t think we’ll see the font used on the schedule on jerseys. It’s an unusual retro-looking typeface that adds some visual interest to a more reserved color scheme, but it feels more like something geared more toward seasonal use on promotion material than a foundational brand font (especially when it comes to jersey usage). But hey, we’ll share more thoughts when we see more. Regardless, it appears this re-brand won’t roll out in full force until after this season anyway.

These look to be the biggest storylines for upcoming season. Next time we’ll explore some other storylines, including some that are maybe secondary but still fun to mull over, like: What kind of regular season awards can the team expect? Will Hassan Whiteside be closer to Bobby Portis or Jeff Green? What kind of leap will Mitchell make? Are the Jazz really more versatile? And will Gobert finally earn some respect? Stay tuned.

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