Storylines and Predictions Part 2: Awards, Mitchell’s Leap, Whiteside’s Variance, and Gobert’s Respect

Can Rudy win a 4th DPOY? What about leaguewide respect? Zarin Ficklin tackles those and other questions.

Last week, we walked through some of the biggest storylines facing the 2021-22 Utah Jazz and I offered my predictions on each one. Now, on the even of this pivotal Jazz season, let’s keep going and analyze four more prominent questions.

What kind of regular season awards can the team expect?

After a highly decorated Jazz team disappointed in last summer’s playoffs, expect the club to fight an uphill battle with regard to narratives. The story is that they’re a great regular season team that failed in the playoffs. With a returning team that’s largely the same, the regular season results could be largely the same as well. The Jazz may just be boringly great. And regular season awards are often based on novelty. For example, coach of the year often goes to the coach who most subverted expectations rather than the coach on the best team. Voter fatigue can factor in.

That said, if the Jazz are just as good this season, they’ll be hard to ignore. And in some senses, continual success can play a positive role. All-Star and All-NBA votes often favor incumbents, rewarding players who have already proven their stardom in previous years.

If the Jazz repeat last year’s regular season success they should compete for all of the same awards.

Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell should be All-Star locks, especially buoyed by the fact that Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray, and Klay Thompson will likely miss large portions of the season due to injury. Having earned honors for two consecutive years now, Utah’s stars are on the “perennial All-Star” track until regression kicks them off. I also suspect they won’t repeat as the last chosen when teams are picked. I wouldn’t count on Conley returning, who barely made it last season, and may rest more this season. He got the All-Star monkey off his back, making the team for the first time in 14 stellar seasons. There will be less of a grassroots push to get him in this year.

Four-time All-NBA winner Gobert also has a great shot at repeating. He’s helped by the center position designation, and will compete with Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, and Anthony Davis. There’s usually a star center who’s been too injured, and Davis can be classified as a forward. Gobert could certainly earn his fifth All-NBA honors.

Mitchell faces stiff competition, but he was in the mix before injuries at the end of the season took him out of the race¹. With health and an expected leap, Mitchell could get his first nod here.

Both Mitchell and Gobert were in the fringes of MVP talk last season. Neither were a true contender, but in the conversation. Gobert appeared on some ballots and finished tenth in voting. Mitchell did not receive MVP votes. With another jump, offense-oriented Mitchell may have the best chance of cracking the top five if Utah is again formidable, but either player actually winning feels out of reach this season.

Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles should compete for the Sixth Man Award once again. Clarkson should continue to put up scoring numbers, which speak loudest for this award. There’s precedent for repeating, with Lou Williams and Jamal Crawford each winning three times in recent memory. Ingles may face a tougher path if he can’t replicate a historically efficient season, and especially if he rests more. It’s doubtful Rudy Gay will play enough minutes or score enough to compete, but don’t count him out completely.

Quin Snyder is held in high esteem across the league, but last season felt like his best shot to win the Coach of the Year award. Since the Jazz are expected to repeat as a contender for the top seed, it’s hard to imagine what more Snyder can do. His best bet may be out of his hands: if no other coach overly exceeds expectations and the Jazz are the clear winners of the regular season maybe Quin will finally get his due.

Unless there’s a serious injury or trade, Jared Butler will have trouble playing enough minutes to make an All-Rookie team.

Lastly — and perhaps most intriguing — is Defensive Player of the Year. From a defensive ability standpoint, it’s Rudy’s award to lose. But voter fatigue could be a factor. Gobert has won three of the last four years, and only Ben Wallace has won four of five years. Speaking of Wallace, only he and Dikembe Mutumbo have won the award four times. Gobert is chasing history, and has a real shot at collecting the most DPOY trophies.

The race this year will be interesting. Giannis Antetokounmpo is at his absolute peak, both in performance and perception. A reloaded Warriors team could vault Draymond Green back into the competition. If Embiid and Ben Simmons part ways, either could win the narrative by soaking up all of the defensive credit. There’s also voter appeal to something fresh happening, whether that’s a perimeter defender finally winning, or a first-time winner like Bam Adebayo or Myles Turner.

All that said, Gobert should be the front-runner, but he’ll have strong competition.

Prediction: When all is said and done, I think it will be the Gobert and Mitchell show, with both making All-Star and All-NBA teams, and Gobert earning his fourth Defensive Player of the Year trophy.

Will Hassan Whiteside be closer to Bobby Portis or Jeff Green?

When the Bucks signed Bobby Portis last season, many were skeptical. There were concerns about his defensive effort, attitude, and efficiency. Sound familiar? It turned out to be a fantastic signing. Portis endeared himself to the fans and team and played a key role in the championship run. What happened? First, Portis was given a defined role on the bench. When Portis started in the past he often played outside of his game, posting up and dribbling more than he should. A new scheme, coach, and ultra-talented teammates brought out the best in him. And to Bobby’s credit, he bought in and put in the hours on his shot.

On the other hand, Jazz fans remember the failed Jeff Green experiment. It’s clear the fit between Green and the Jazz wasn’t there, for reasons that are a bit more mysterious. Green wasn’t washed — he went on to find success with the Nets. But he wound up being a bit the opposite of the Bucks’ Portis signing: he was widely regarded as a great pickup, and just didn’t work at all.

The Jazz are hoping Whiteside’s story in Utah can line up to Portis’ Milwaukee renaissance. He is a high-variable player, which is why is so intriguing. The Jazz could’ve signed a more “safe” backup center, but if Hassan’s contributions turn out to provide a boost like Portis did for the Bucks, then that’s a major win for the Jazz. Like Portis, Whiteside joins the Jazz with a fair share of skepticism. Let’s hope the Jazz can continue to parallel the Bucks.

Prediction: I’m an optimist, so I’m going to root for Whiteside to succeed. He has it in him, and the effort should be there.

What kind of leap will Mitchell make?

I’ll reserve detailed thoughts about Mitchell’s leap for a future article, so I’ll skip straight to the prediction.

Prediction: Mitchell makes another leap, averaging 28 points, 6 assists, and 5 rebounds. Perhaps the expectations around Mitchell make these stats seem pedestrian. Remember that progress is not always linear. Many stars level off or decrease counting stats, even during their prime years. Such a jump would be incredibly impressive, especially given the bar is already so high. Last season only five players averaged 28 points per game or more. To do so, Donovan will need to get to the line more and shoot even more threes (which can come from off the bounce and from deeper range).

Mitchell could play more minutes and increase his usage. I wouldn’t bet on his minutes increasing with the emphasis on player health. I imagine he’ll continue to average between 33 and 34 minutes per game. That’s already on the low side for a star of his caliber. (Damian Lillard and Bradley Beal play almost 36 minutes, for comparison). Increasing his usage seems almost as difficult, as his 33.5% was fifth highest usage mark in the league last season. But Mitchell has shown to be capable as the focal point in a heliocentric offense, particularly in the playoffs, where his usage jumped to 38%. The Rockets iteration of James Harden sported a usage rate as high as 40.5%. It’s not out of the question that Mitchell takes even more of the offensive reins.

Will Gobert finally earn some respect?

Gobert has a case for the most disrespected star in the NBA. There’s a laundry list of reasons. He was mocked for showing emotion on multiple occasions. He was chosen last in the All-Star team selection after LeBron James’ “we never played with Utah” comment. He was unfairly blamed for Utah’s defensive shortcomings in the playoffs while his teammates couldn’t stop anyone on the perimeter. His supermax extension was discussed with critical overtones. He even received death threats and derision after becoming the first high-profile individual to contract COVID-19 in early 2020. Sure, Gobert is not perfect. But he does get a disproportionate amount of disrespect.

An admirable trait of Rudy’s is how he uses the disrespect as fuel and moves forward. After being drafted 27th he’s racked up two All-Star team selections, four All-NBA selections, and three Defensive Player of the Year awards. He had one of the most dominating defensive seasons of all time. It feels like the final thing for Gobert to prove is playoff success. And Gobert has performed well in the playoffs — but he needs the team success to follow, and a dominating performance on his end would help as well.

On one hand, Rudy will rely on his teammates to overcome the narrative. If Utah can stay healthy and defend the perimeter, then Rudy’s interior defense will shine. On the other hand, Rudy can do more to punish mismatches on the offensive end. When teams switch everything (and you can bet that opponents will try after the Clippers found success), Rudy can dominate the rim when smaller players switch onto him. He just did so in the Olympics, arguably on the biggest stage he’s been on yet. He nearly willed his team to one of the biggest Olympics upsets ever.

Rudy is on track to be one of the most decorated defenders in NBA history. He could be a Hall of Famer. The biggest piece left is a deeper playoff run.

Prediction: I feel like it’s Rudy’s time. The league knows what he can do in the regular season. The Jazz, and Rudy particularly are set up for redemption and respect.