The Gobert Factor Lifts Guard Play — and Not Just on Defense

For two years, Gobert has enabled Rubio to shoot and score more. What could he do for the other guy pictured here? (Photo via espn.com_

It’s not a well-kept secret that Rudy Gobert is the finest defender this side (and any side, really) of the Mississippi. Gobert has been a runner-up DPOY and DPOY for the past two seasons, and unless he’s snubbed a la All-Star selection, he should be the front-runner again this season. He’s led the league in defensive win shares and defensive real plus-minus for a couple of seasons now. He also gets a lot of credit for his offensive impact, which has only improved this season: from his rim running, lob finishing, his occasional Euro-step finger roll, or even his screen assists (best in the NBA). 

What we don’t talk about as specifically is how his rim rolling gravity and screen assists benefit the point guard he runs with in Jazz coach Quin Snyder’s offense. It really only becomes clear when we look at point guards who have played both with Rudy and without him.

This is especially timely to consider now as Utah is reportedly in the running to add Memphis point guard Mike Conley, who could be traded to Utah before Thursday’s trade deadline. A few other writers have covered what he could bring to our offense, the angle here is to attempt to show how other point guards have benefitted and to start to get a feel for how Rudy could benefit a point guard of Conley’s caliber. 

Three point guards have played a significant number of games next to a fully-unleashed Gobert and also have a decent sample without him: Shelvin Mack, George Hill, and Ricky Rubio. Frankly, the only other one may be Trey Burke, who we won’t consider¹ 

Now, keep in mind that these three point guards are not All-Stars or All-NBA candidates and really haven’t been at any points in their careers. Conley is several levels above any of these guys. Mack isn’t even a starter-level guard. But the Rudy Factor still had an incredible impact on him. Basically, Gobert (and Snyder) help change rotation and fringe-starter point guards into strong starters (and in the case of Hill, a near All-Star candidate). 

Mack Attack

Mack is a career 6.6 point per game scorer who has never played a full season of 82 games, often due to DNP-CDs² and only averaged more than 22 minutes per game once in his career. Of course, that season was with Rudy and the Jazz when he joined the team late in the season for the final 28 games. In those games, he averaged 12.7 points and 5.3 assists. He’s never come close to either of those marks in any other season. He started 27 of those 28 games and he was a part of a Jazz team that had a solid second half of the season run (including an 11-7 close) before ending 40-42. 

With Utah, Mack also attempted a higher number of threes per game at 3.5 than he has at any other time. 

Georgie Porgie (my wife’s unofficial nickname for Hill)

Hill has been a solid starter and rotation level for most of his career. He’s basically been a starter since his age-26 season and until he left Utah. In the two seasons since in Cleveland and Milwaukee, he has  had nagging injuries and is now a backup to the Bucks’ Eric Bledsoe. Does anyone have a guess at what season he had his career best scoring and second best assist averages?

A career 11.3 ppg scorer with 3.2 assists per game averaged 16.9 points per game and 4.2 assists per game. (Remember Quin’s egalitarian system usually reduces the overall number of assists an individual will have, so the fact this is his second highest average is actually really impressive.) He probably would have hit even higher marks had he not been injured for the second half of the season.  And while he didn’t have his absolute best 3-point shooting year with Utah, he did hit over 40 percent of his 4.8 attempts per game, which was his highest attempt number. 

He ultimately only played 49 games for Utah, but he was really good in the games he did play and the Jazz hit 50 wins despite his injuries³. With him healthy, they might have been pushing 55 wins. 

Spanish Samurai

Two examples could be coincidental, but three times starts looking like a trend. And Rubio follows a similar theme. He doesn’t hit the same assist numbers he did in Minnesota, which makes sense because he moved from a pick-and-roll centric offense dominated by a ball-handling point-guard into an egalitarian system driven by movement and multiple passes, screens, cuts, and play actions. While he actually has his highest career usage mark this season and still primarily kicks off the offense when he’s on the floor, the ball usually touches a few other players hands before an attempt to score.

His past two seasons in Utah have been the two highest scoring averages for his career with this season over 12 and last season north of 13. He also has the two lowest assist averages coming in Utah at 5.3 and 6.1. Finally, he posted his highest three-point percentage last season at 35 percent at a career-high (at the time) rate of 3.5 per game, which he has since upped to 4.2.

The inflated success all three guards had while playing next to Gobert is an important sign. There are a few specific areas where all three saw parallel improvements relative to their non-Gobert years: more three-point attempts, particularly in the corner, and more scoring.

If Gobert’s influence allowed all of Mack, Hill and Rubio to improve as shooters and scorers, imagine what he could do for someone like Conley if the Jazz found a way to acquire him. Conley is not as sharp of a shooter as Hill, but he’s a more prolific scorer and playmaker. He’s also a plus defender. In Utah, with Gobert as his PNR partner and Donovan Mitchell as his backcourt running mate, he would be in a position to have the best impact of his career.