The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly to Utah’s Season Start

Lauri Markkanen has been an early bright spot for the Jazz. (Trent Nelson, The Salt Lake Tribune)

The season has gotten off to a rocky start for the Utah Jazz. They kicked things off off with a loss to the Sacramento Kings where the defense allowed 130 points and 19 three-pointers (many wide open). Then the Jazz rebounded in a big way by defeating the LA Clippers as Jordan Clarkson saved the day with a late three-pointer and some lockdown defense against Kawhi Leonard. That encouraging win was followed up by an absolute trouncing by the Phoenix Suns who were playing without Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. Then most recently they fell to the defending champion Denver Nuggets in a game where they actually did play pretty well.

Four games into a season is too quick to make assumptions on what is going to be a season long trend, and it’s important to point out that those first four opponents may have been the hardest opening 4-game schedule that any team had to face. We can still evaluate the good, the bad, and the ugly, and preview where we need to go from here. 

The Good – Offense and Lauri

Despite some flaws, the offense has continued to perform at a high level. They are averaging 110 points per game and they have an offensive rating of 111.1, which ranks them 14th. A big boost to their offense has been crashing the boards. They are currently averaging 16 offensive rebounds per game, or 33.6 percent of their misses, which is the highest in the league. Those rebounds have led to 21 second chance points per game, which is also the top mark in the league. While it’s good to see that the Jazz are crashing the offensive glass and getting those second chance opportunities, a high offensive rebound percentage doesn’t always translate to a good offense, and it often leads to poor transition defense (more to come on that later).

Another positive is that the Jazz seem to be getting the looks they want on offense. They are currently getting the seventh most shot attempts at the rim, and the third most corner threes. The NBA today has become extremely pick and roll heavy, but the Jazz offense doesn’t play that way. They run close to the least amount of pick and roll in the league, but instead use off-ball movement, passing and isolation play. A positive is that that seems to be getting them decent looks. The concern with this area, is that even though they are getting those looks, they aren’t making them at the percentage you would expect. On shots at the rim, they are shooting just 66 percent, which is ranked 17th. If they can click in on those attempts, it will be an easy boost for the offense to jump into the Top 10.

The final positive is Lauri Markkanen. He is picking up right where he left off last season as the clear cut star for this team. He is averaging 25 points and 9.8 rebounds in 33 minutes of play. If the Kings and Suns games had been more competitive and he had stayed on the court longer, his averages would certainly be higher. He already has done something that no other Jazzmen in history has done, which is score 35 plus points, to go along with 10 plus rebounds and 5 plus three-point attempts. Lauri ranks number two in three-pointers made this season behind Max Strus, and is shooting a blistering 46.2 percent from three to start the season.

Lauri Markkanen was a FORCE in the Jazz's riveting win over the Clippers 💪

35 PTS
12 REB
5 3PM pic.twitter.com/OuTZTW8nqy

— NBA (@NBA) October 28, 2023

The Bad – Starting Lineup and Point Guards

After the pre-season, I made a comment that I felt like one of the lessons learned was that the Jazz don’t have a start point guard, but they have multiple solid options, which should be a positive. After four games, that is not looking to be true. The guard spot has really felt like a glaring weakness to start this season. So far, we have seen struggles from every guard on the roster, and if the Jazz don’t have someone step up or find a rotation pairing that works at a higher level, it will be difficult to overcome. Currently, none of their primary guards has a positive point differential. 

*Everything I am about to say should be taken with a grain of salt due to a small sample size.*

The starting lineup is a great example. Your starting lineup should be the one you have the most confidence in, and yet Utah’s lineup featuring Talen Horton-Tucker, Jordan Clarkson, Markkanen, John Collins, and Walker Kessler currently has a -21.4 point differential. They are also boasting an Offensive Rating of 104.4 and a Defensive Rating of 125.8. Not encouraging numbers for your most used lineup. 

The question really is how long do you give that lineup before you start tinkering if you are Will Hardy. Walker Kessler could also go into this column of the bad. One of our best lineups with a +80 point differential, a 166.7 Offensive Rating and a 86.7 Defensive Rating is our same starting lineup except we swap out Kessler for Kelly Olynyk. It’s only 15 possessions though. Our best lineup (with only 20 possessions), features Keyonte George, Kris Dunn, THT, Markkanen, and Kessler. Hard for me to think that that is the answer long term. 

Again, four games is a small sample size. I would follow along with the lineup data through the first eight to ten games, which gets us through a tenth of the season, to see what trends have solidified.

The Ugly – Defense optional?

The Utah Jazz are currently boasting the worst ranked defense in the NBA.

I could just end it there, but let’s keep going anyway. The Jazz are allowing opponents to score 121 points per game, with a defensive rating of 122.2, which ranks last and would have been last by a large margin last season. We could maybe write this off due to them playing some real high-level offenses to start the season, but when you dig into some of the data, it starts to look pretty bad. One of the biggest things we saw in the Quin Snyder era was the importance of shot location. Both offensively and defensively. Currently, they are allowing opponents to attempt 41 percent of their shots from three, which is in the bottom five in the league. 

The biggest concern has been with how many of those three-point attempts have seem to be uncontested. Against the Kings on opening night, they were able to shoot 8 of 14 from corner three alone. If you are going to allow teams on average to attempt five more threes per game than you, while those shots have also often been uncontested, you are putting yourself at an extreme disadvantage. 

On top of the easy looks from three they are giving to their opponents, they have always started the season with struggles defensively in transition. Typically when we talk about struggles in transition, it is due to live ball turnovers. So a steal leading to an easy transition opportunity, for example. The Jazz are actually struggling most just during defensive rebounds. I mentioned earlier that the Jazz have been crashing the board and leading the NBA in offensive rebounds. The problem with that is opponent defensive rebounds are now leading to transition opportunities 34.5 percent of the time. What the Jazz will need to do is find a balance between prioritizing offensive rebounding, while also putting themselves in a position to get back on defense.

This was also a problem last season, where the Jazz ranked last in opponent transition frequency. 

This is the start of season two for Will Hardy as the head coach of the Utah Jazz, and so far in those 86 games, the Jazz have yet to hold an opponent under 100 points (or to an ORtg of under 104). With size, length and athleticism at nearly every position, it has been a surprise for the Jazz to struggle defensively like they have. 

The season now get much smoother over the next two weeks, and hopefully that leads to more confidence, rhythm, and most importantly wins. The next few games will be Memphis without Ja Morant, Orlando, Minnesota, Chicago, Indiana, Memphis again, and then Portland.