The Inevitable Scuttlebutt around Lauri Markkanen’s Future

If you’re an avid NBA fan, chances are you have a lineup of NBA reads and podcast listens lined up from week to week. The Utah Jazz are almost never a main topic of conversation, so Jazz fans are usually eager to latch onto a 30 second sound bite about their favorite team. A couple weeks ago, ESPN’s Zach Lowe probably caused a few eyebrows to raise in Jazz land when he queried about the Jazz’s future plans with Lauri Markkanen.

“It feels like we’re almost seeing the peak of Lauri Markkanen and I mean that as a play initiator and creator for others…he’s averaging 1.6 assists and 1.7 turnovers a game. He may be, and this is totally fine, an all star who doesn’t ever crack All-NBA. That’s a good player; it’s not a great great player…They have a million draft picks, we all know that. Their own draft picks may be the most valuable of the million draft picks they own…

I would just love to have a couple of drinks with their front office…What do you think you have here? How worried are you that you don’t have the foundational piece yet? What does it amount to?”

You have to read between the lines, but it’s not too difficult to decipher what Lowe is trying to get at. It’s really at the heart of the next 5 years of Jazz basketball. Since Lauri Markkanen is probably not a number one option on a title contending team, should the Jazz trade him and bottom out and find a number one option?

In my opinion, Markkanen should and will be with the Jazz for a long time (Rick Bowmer via sltrib.com)

For any of you readers that like an abbreviated version of this article: No the Jazz shouldn’t trade Lauri. They should extend his contract and build around him. But if they did trade him, the right trade would be to Oklahoma City for Davis Bertans and 4 first round picks. The Jazz would also retain their pick owed to the Thunder, because they would be one of the worst 5 teams in the NBA for AT LEAST the next 3 seasons.

For those of you that like the extended editions, let’s discuss all the ways the Jazz future could look with the Finnish Forward.

Contract Options

When Markkanen becomes a free agent in the summer of 2025, he will be eligible to sign a contract in the neighborhood of 5 years and $250 million. That means that over the next 7 years, he would make $285 million.

Another option is for the Jazz to use some cap space this next summer, like they did for Jordan Clarkson in July, and bump Markannen’s $18 million salary up as high as $43 million and add more years to his current contract. If that were a max money extension, the Jazz could turn that 1 year, $18 million into 5 years, $224 million.

The most likely scenario, in my opinion, is something in between those two options. The Jazz use cap space to bump Lauri’s $18 million salary to around $40 million next season and extend his contract another 4 years, $160 million, making his salary 5 years, $200 million. It’s a great deal for Lauri, because he gets bonus money in 2024-25 and long term security. Meanwhile, the Jazz save a few million dollars a year and have a contract that looks very reasonable with an increasing salary cap, all during Lauri’s basketball prime.

The specific numbers don’t really matter in the long run. The bottom line is that if the Jazz wanted to keep Lauri in a Jazz uniform for the next 5 years, it would be fairly easy to do so. And if Lauri wants to be with the Jazz long term, the Jazz should make that happen.

Western Conference Bulls

Keeping Lauri in a Jazz uniform until 2029 sounds like a no brainer, but the downside is being played out in Chicago right now in the Zach LaVine drama. Chicago is the poster child for “win now” moves gone wrong, as they sacrificed years of draft capital to acquire good, but not great players and have one playoff win (not even a series win, just one playoff game) to show for it. 

LaVine and Markkanen aren’t the perfect comparison players either, as Lavine has more primary creation to his game, but Lauri is a better player on both sides of the ball. The Bulls shortcomings, I believe, are more to do with their poor draft work, the non-development of Patrick Williams and the mediocrity of Nikola Vucevic, than any of LaVine’s shortcomings, but probably only a trade will reveal the truthfulness of that opinion.

Zach LAvine’s athleticism helped him make this very contested shot against Dante Exum. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)

Markkanen’s Future Role

What does seem like proper public consensus, is that Markkanen is not a primary option for a very good team. Some will argue that for this reason, the Jazz should trade him. But he is an elite offensive player as a secondary option with his catch and shoot ability and efficiency off cuts and lobs. Luka Doncic and Markkanen, for instance, would be an elite offensive duo. 

The numbers would also suggest that Markkanen is meant, at this time, to play off others, rather than create himself. His efficiency steadily declines the longer he has the basketball and the more dribbles he has to take. This season in 14 games, Markkanen is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 15% when he shoots after 3 dribbles or more. He’s 7 feet tall and it’s impossible to ask almost any 7 footer not named Kevin Durant to attack the basket off the dribble, but it also means he can get his shot off almost any time over defenders.

His lack of creation ability is apparent by watching his isolation possessions at the end of games, as seen here the other night against Phoenix. It’s a contested step-back 20 footer that isn’t a terrible shot, but also isn’t the shot you necessarily want with the game on the line. Even in the wins, Markkanen’s lack of self creation is not a long term answer for success.

This season has not been a lot of fun, but it also gives a little glimpse into what the Jazz would be without Lauri Markkanen. All reports are that Lauri and his family like it in Utah and would like to be here long term. Contractually, the Jazz should have no problem doing that.

Contributions made by Dan Clayton and Ken Clayton with the salary cap ramifications and minutiae.