The Jazz Have Optionality Entering Trade Season

A Jazz trade could mean breaking up the good vibe tribe, led by coach Will Hardy and electric scorer Jordan Clarkson. (Francisco Kjolseth, The Salt Lake Tribune)

The Utah Jazz could approach trade season a lot of different ways. Jazz general manager Justin Zanik has mentioned the “optionality” afforded to the front office by the team’s asset trove and surprising start. A series of quotes from Zanik dissected in this week’s Salt City Seven may shed light on how the team might approach the next two months, now that nearly 90% of NBA players are trade eligible between now and the February 9 deadline for in-season swaps.

Of note, Zanik mentioned avoiding “that treadmill of being in the middle.” In the NBA’s system, mediocrity means a team is not bad enough to earn a top draft pick, but not good enough to compete for a championship. Incidentally, Utah’s record places them outside of the lottery, but not exactly in position for a title run.

From that spot in the middle, the Jazz could opt to go either direction or stand pat, back to Zanik’s oft-repeated “optionality” teams. One rung up the org chart, team CEO Danny Ainge has lamented just how stuck the Jazz were last year: “The draft wasn’t very much fun. Free agency wasn’t very much fun. We were over the tax, no draft picks, and our team loses in the first round, and it wasn’t very fun for us.”

Well, now they have all the optionality they want. Indeed, with the team in the middle of the pack, they could make moves to strengthen their team, or to target future assets at the expense of this year’s win-loss record. They could also stay the course. Let’s say the season ended today. The Jazz would not have a lottery pick. Does that mean they’re stuck on the treadmill of being in the middle? Not necessarily.

Option #1: Stay the Course

The Jazz have a treasure trove of future draft picks, so this is not their only shot at drafting a potential superstar. The idea of Victor Wembanyama is tantalizing, but even the worst team in basketball only gets 14% odds at that payoff, and the Jazz are too far removed from that tier for that to be realistic. But Utah’s surprise start provides other benefits. For one, their roster has a higher collective trade value. It’s possible that lost draft position could be made up by better trade returns.

But draft currency shouldn’t be the only metric used to measure rebuilds. Utah’s young players are getting reps in meaningful situations. By trading for Kelly Olynyk before the season, the front office showed they care about crafting a functional team. We’re seeing developmental dividends already, with multiple Jazz players flourishing this season.

Furthermore, the team has bought into rookie coach Will Hardy. The team looks like it’s having fun. Vibes matter, and this team has good vibes. If anything, it’s a lot fun to watch. Whatever the asset balance sheet looks like, this is shaping up to be a memorable season.

Option #2: Improve the Team

We’ve seen cautionary tales of teams that pushed in their chips too early. It seems unlikely the Jazz make win-now moves. At least the sort of move that involves premium assets for a player that gives a short window of opportunity at contention. If the Jazz do cash in draft picks for a player, I’d bet it’s for someone young.

Option #3: Make Adjacent Moves

That said, the Jazz could make moves that aren’t overtly tank-y, while also sticking to a longer term timeline. They can nudge some experience for potential. Such a pattern has emerged in recent trades:

• Joe Ingles for Nickeil Alexander-Walker
• Patrick Beverley for Talen Horton-Tucker
• Bojan Bogdanovic for Kelly Olynyk

While all of these trades have their nuances, each swapped established talent for younger players. But unlike the seismic Gobert and Mitchell trades, these were small shifts. NAW, THT, and Olynyk are not dead weight. Each have featured in Utah’s rotation. It’s hard to say if those moves had much impact on the current win total, but the returned players fit Utah’s direction better.

Those trades also show us that Utah’s strategy includes rehabilitating value. If the Jazz aren’t competing for a title this season, it makes sense to “buy low” on players they believe they can empower and improve. Just look at Lauri Markkanen, for instance. And while I believe The Finnisher is now part of Utah’s long-term plans, his trade value is certainly far higher than when they traded for him.

It would make a lot of sense for the Jazz to trade older players for slightly younger, slightly less effective players.

Take a look at the John Collins trade rumors. Set aside the validity of such rumors for a moment — whether those rumors have legs or are posturing doesn’t matter much for this argument. Collins is 25 years old with three more years on his deal. He’s 6-9 and an athlete. He’s also having a down year, averaging 12 points and shooting 22% from three-point range. There are arguments to be made about whether Collins should be traded for, but he does fit the mold of a “buy low” player that could thrive in a different setting.

One other pattern to glean from recent trades is that Utah has not brought on long-term salaries. Bojan Bogdanovic could have returned a first-round draft pack, but it would have required taking on a bad contract. While the Kelly Olynyk return did come as a surprise, it gave the Jazz a useful, younger player that fit a roster need. It also gave the Jazz another $5 million in wiggle room and no long-term commitment. Clearly preserving optionality is a priority.

Option #4: Make Moves to Improve Draft Position

First off, let’s talk about the word “tank”. We’ve seen teams tank to an absurd level, completely gutting teams, creating imbalanced rosters, and sitting veterans that contribute to winning. Certainly the Jazz are not engineering losing to an extreme degree. Gobert, Mitchell, and Royce O’Neale were all traded for draft picks. The Jazz could make more such moves if the opportunities arise.

But should they?

The Jazz are not far off from a .500 record. They lost a lot of game when Mike Conley was injured. They’re only two games away from having a top-10 pick. Below them in the standings are these teams:

• Dallas Mavericks
• Miami Heat
• Atlanta Hawks
• Golden State Warriors
• Minnesota Timberwolves
• Toronto Raptors
• Chicago Bulls
• Los Angeles Lakers

All of those teams presumably want to make the playoffs and will push to leapfrog Utah. As currently constructed the Jazz will compete for a playoff spot. But trade a key veteran or two without bringing back too much talent, and they could firmly be in lottery position.

At this point it will be hard to out-lose the Hornets, Pistons, Magic, Spurs, and Rockets. But finishing sixth-worst results in an 18% chance at Wembanyama or Henderson, and finishing seventh-worst results in a 15% chance. That’s not nothing. And even without lottery luck, finishing in that range could still net a potential star.

There are a lot of benefits to being good this season. But still. Gaining a player like Wembanyama could be franchise altering at a scale that dwarfs all of the other micro-improvements that come from winning, good vibes, and savvy moves. Even improving small odds at such a player is worth seriously weighing.

It’s clear the Jazz have been reticent to trade their veterans for good draft picks attached to bad contracts. And hey, the Jazz like having players like Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson on the roster. They’re talented and good leaders. They’re not dying to get them away from the team. But I also don’t think they Jazz will turn down the right offer.

I would keep an eye out for injured players on competing teams. This could provide a path for the Jazz to trade a veteran for draft capital without bringing back a long-term deal or a player who will add wins. That’s assuming Utah is interested in engineering more losses on the back-half of the schedule.

What Will Happen?

The Jazz have yet to tip their hand. I suspect they will make moves opportunistically. They’re in a position where multiple paths lead to good results. Perhaps the O’Neale and Gobert trades happened not so much because they were determined to trade their veterans, but because phenomenal deals fell into their laps and they couldn’t say no. That they didn’t fold to a premature Mitchell trade with the Knicks shows that they will wait for the right deal. What happens next could be dictated less by committing to a particular strategy like maximizing losses and more by taking the best possible deals that arise.

I wouldn’t be shocked if they Jazz keep their current roster for the rest of the season or make big moves. Optionality remains the key word here. It’s refreshing after last season, when everyone knew what the team needed, but the assets to make moves just weren’t there.