The Jazz Play Postseason Leapfrog in the Western Conference

Many projections anticipate that the Jazz and Thunder may wrestle for playoff seeding down to the season’s final game. (Russ Isabella/USA TODAY Sports)

This season’s Western Conference playoff chase started opening night. That’s how closely matched the teams are in the incredibly deep conference. 

Like last year, a slow start by the Utah Jazz saw them staring at playoff position from the outside for about half of the season. But in what is becoming characteristic of the team, a recent blitz of 11 wins in 13 games has vaulted them into a tie with San Antonio for sixth in the West¹

Moreover, Utah’s brutal early season schedule — road heavy and stocked with quality teams — has provided them a silver-lined path to the playoffs from this point forward. The website Tankathon, which tracks strength of schedule of games yet to be played across major American sports, ranks the Jazz’s remaining schedule the second easiest in the entire league², and the easiest in the conference.

With teams currently seeded third to eighth separated by only five games in the loss column, the remainder of the year is shaping up to be a big, brutal, beautiful game of leapfrog for position. Just how many teams are the Jazz likely to leap?

Three of the most respected playoff projections, courtesy of statistical website FiveThirtyEight, ESPN, and Basketball-Reference, combine to project the Jazz as a likely fourth seed when the tumultuous regular season draws to a close. But this projection simply articulates the most likely outcome as calculated by these entities³.

All the prominent forecasting models project Utah’s climb to continue.

In reality, playoff seeding isn’t determined by estimates or algorithms. It means teams bypassing — or being passed by — other teams, until final positioning is set. 

So it’s worth looking at Utah’s position relative to those likely playoff teams on a case-by-case basis⁴.

Current record: 36-14

Projected Remaining Record: 22-10⁵

Remaining Strength of Schedule: 11th⁶

Current Head-to-Head Record vs. the Jazz: 1-1

Remaining Head-to-Head: One game at Golden State

The Jazz leap the Warriors if: Any two of Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green miss substantial remaining games due to injury, and even in that case it’s only a maybe. The Warriors are simply too far ahead and too loaded with talent to be caught otherwise.

Leapfrog Chances: Very Unlikely

Current record: 34-15

Projected Remaining Record: 18-15

Remaining Strength of Schedule: 2nd

Current Head-to-Head Record vs. the Jazz: 1-1

Remaining Head-to-Head: One game in Denver and one in Salt Lake

The Jazz Leap the Nuggets if: Denver’s early season success was largely a mirage. Several key shooters have struggled from three so far this season. If that continues, Nikola Jokic can’t sustain his all-league play, and Utah wins both remaining games in the matchup, there might be a chance.

Leapfrog Chances: Unlikely

Current record: 31-18

Projected Remaining Record: 20-13

Remaining Strength of Schedule: 1st

Current Head-to-Head Record vs. the Jazz: 2-0

Remaining Head-to-Head: One game in Oklahoma City and one game in Salt Lake

The Jazz Leap the Thunder if: They win both remaining head-to-head match ups. The Thunder have a brutal remaining schedule, which should help the Jazz close the gap. Utah’s shot at the Thunder in OKC will be vital if they are to have any shot at overtaking them in the standings. 

Leapfrog Chances: Possible

Current record: 29-20

Projected Remaining Record: 19-14

Remaining Strength of Schedule: 14th

Current Head-to-Head Record vs. the Jazz: 1-2

Remaining Head-to-Head: One game in Salt Lake

The Jazz Leap the Rockets if: James Harden tires. He’s been dragging his team on his back this season. Chris Paul’s return, plus the addition of Kenneth Faried, make this a better team than early in the year. But without Harden playing at an uncontestable MVP level, the Jazz are a better team.

Leapfrog Chances: Possible

Current record: 31-20

Projected Remaining Record: 17-14

Remaining Strength of Schedule: 10th

Current Head-to-Head Record vs. the Jazz: 1-2

Remaining Head-to-Head: One game in Portland

Current record: 29-22

Projected Remaining Record: 17-14

Remaining Strength of Schedule: 21st

Current Head-to-Head Record vs. the Jazz: 1-2

Remaining Head-to-Head: One game in San Antonio

The Jazz Leap the Spurs if: They win the games they should. The Spurs have a relatively easy schedule remaining, but it doesn’t have all the gimme games Utah should feast on.

Leapfrog Chances: Likely

Current record: 28-23

Projected Remaining Record: 14-15

Remaining Strength of Schedule: 18th

Current Head-to-Head Record vs. Jazz: 0-1

Remaining Head-to-Head: One game in Salt Lake, one game in L.A.

The Clippers Leap the Jazz if: Utah loses Donovan Mitchell or Rudy Gobert for more than a short stretch. Anything short of Utah losing a star should keep the Clippers at the Jazz’s back. 

Leapfrog Chances: Very likely