The Numbers Behind the Jazz’s Turnaround

The Jazz are coming together. Our John Keeffer looks at why. (Trent Nelson, The Salt Lake Tribune)

On December 11, 2023, the Utah Jazz had just lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder in a game where they trailed by 38 at the end of the third quarter, dropping their record to 7-16. At that point, it was fair to ask what direction the Jazz were most likely to take going forward. They could either shake up the roster and push to make a run for the play-in tournament, or they could steer more fully into the rebuild by giving more playing time to their youngest players at the expense of winning games.

Since that loss, they seem to have completely turned the season around. Over the course of their past 12 games, the Jazz have boasted a record of 9-3, and have currently won six of their last seven. Seven of the games (and four of the wins) over that 12-game span were played on the road, making the turnaround that much more impressive.

So with no change to the roster due to trades, what can we point to to explain the drastic improvement? I dove into the numbers to see what jumps out to explain what can hopefully be seen as a long-term sign of success for the rest of the season.

Side-by-side comparison

Games 1-23

As you can see from the numbers above, the Jazz were a bottom 5 team in multiple areas over the first quarter of the season, including the big three: offensive, defensive and net ratings. There was also the issue of those pesky turnovers. The Jazz ranked dead last in turnovers, and were allowing opponents to score a league-worst 21 points off of turnovers per game, including 16.5 points on fast breaks. During that same stretch they were also scoring the least amount of points off of turnovers themselves. 

It’s hard to have an impactful defense when you are gifting the other team multiple additional shot attempts per game that are outside of going against a set half-court defense. 

The other big concerns was the rotation. During the early stretches of the season there was really only one regularly used lineup that was having a positive impact. In just 42 minutes together, the fivesome of Collin Sexton, Talen Horton-Tucker, Ochai Agbaji, Kelly Olynyk and Walker Kessler were plus-20. The two most used lineups to start the season were minus-23 and minus-37 and played over 200 combined minutes together.

Simply put, the Jazz deserved to be 7-16. 

Games 24-35

Obviously the biggest jump has just been in their offensive, defensive and overall net rating. They have gone from bottom-5 in all three, to now being 10th in Offense and Defense, and holding the 7th best Net Rating during that stretch. Incredible improvement!

The offensive improvement can be pinpointed with a few things. The first is simple shot making. At the end of the day, the teams that make more shots win, and the Jazz have jumped from 27th in effective field goal percentage to 16th. Part of the improved shot making can be be linked to improved shot location and ball movement. During the last 12 games, the Jazz are shooting 71 percent at the rim. They are also only allowing opponents to attempt 31 percent of their shots at the rim, or the 4th least in the NBA. The quality of their shots has improved also, since 66.7 percent of their made field goals have been assisted and not in isolation.

The other major boost to both their offense and defense has been the improvement in ball security. After being last in the NBA in turnovers through the first 23 games, they have brought that number down to 17th. Decreased turnovers mean more offensive positions that ended in a shot attempt for the Jazz, and less defensive possessions where you are working to prevent easy transition opportunities for the other team.

One of the biggest reasons for the turnaround though has been finding successful lineups and rotations. As mentioned earlier, the Jazz were only featuring one positive lineup that played a decent amount of time together. Since December 13, they have multiple positive lineups, including the lineup that has played the most time together during that stretch, which amazingly doesn’t feature the team’s lone All-Star, Lauri Markkanen. The group with Simone Fontecchio playing in Agbaji’s spot alongside the other four above (Sexton, THT, Olynyk, and Kessler) has posted a plus-12 in 33 minutes together. 

Fontecchio’s emergence has been a big key to Utah’s turnaround. There are five positive lineups that have played over 15 minutes together over the past 12 games, and Fontecchio is featured in all of them. During that stretch he has upped his playing time to 27 minutes per game, and is averaging 12 points, 4.3 rebounds, is shooting 44.3 percent from three, and has played some superb defense. 

A lot of people closed the book on Simone Fontecchio, but he has had one heck of a season

Some of his best games
24 PTS- 6 REB- 2 AST
24 PTS- 5 REB- 7/8 FG
19 PTS- 2 REB- 4 BLK
16 PTS- 2 REB- 6/12 FG
16 PTS- 5 REB- 5 AST
15 PTS- 6 REB- 2 AST
14 PTS- 4 REB- 2 AST pic.twitter.com/FgaoNfQR3o

— Jazz Lead (@JazzLead) January 4, 2024

This streak of positive play also coincides with the return of a healthy Jordan Clarkson, who struggled mightily to start the season. In the first 19 games he averaged 16.6 points, was shooting just 29 percent from three, had a negative-4.9 differential when he was on the floor, and the two variations of the starting lineup he had been a part of were a minus-8.3 and a minus-21.4. Since returning from injury on December 23 and moving back into a sixth man role, he has looked much more like the JC that Jazz fans had come to love in years past. The Jazz have gone 5-1, and have an Offensive Rating of 123 and a Net Rating of 9.8. Personally, he is averaging 21.5 points, 6.2 assists, 4.8 rebounds, and has the second highest plus/minus on the team at +12.

He also finally broke what was the longest streak for a team without a Triple-Double in NBA history (5,801 days since Carlos Boozer had a Triple-Double vs the then Seattle Supersonics). Finishing with 20 points, a career high 13 assist, and 10 rebounds, and most importantly, helping secure a revenge win over the Dallas Mavericks.

Jordan Clarkson secures his first career triple-double and becomes the first Jazz player with a triple-double since Carlos Boozer on 2/13/2008. pic.twitter.com/iItFL9Nwen

— NBA (@NBA) January 2, 2024

The Jazz need Clarkson’s shot making and offensive production. Markkanen is clearly the best player on the team, but he is still working to develop into a player you can just get the ball to and expect him to create his own shot. During tight games like the most recent win against the Detroit Pistons, the Jazz do not likely win that game without Clarkson’s ability to create quality shots in isolation.

What’s sustainable?

Truly the biggest question going forward is whether this level of play from the Jazz sustainable and what fans should expect going forward.

Diving into the numbers, nothing seems like a fluke. It seems this is a team that just needed time to adjust to one another and to find their identity. Now that they have a clear pecking order along with more set and productive rotations, they should be able to start to see sustained success.

That said, this next 4-game stretch will be absolutely brutal. The head out on the road to face the Eastern Conference’s best three teams in Boston, Philadelphia and Milwaukee before returning home to play the defending champion Denver Nuggets. That may well be the hardest 4-game stretch for any team all season. While six of Utah’s past 12 opponents were playoff teams, 10 of their next 11 are against playoff-level squads. This will be a huge test for the Jazz and they will get a good chance to see who they truly are during that stretch. It will also bring us closer and closer to the February trade deadline and could determine the fate of a few players on the roster.