The Utah Jazz’s Top Trade Candidates

December 28th, 2023 | by John Keeffer

Clarkson and Sexton are vets who could interest other NBA teams this trade season. (Rick Egan, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Trade season has kicked off in the NBA and we are already starting to hear the rumblings of players rumored to be on the trade block on the Jazz and across the league. The track record of team president Danny Ainge and the current state of Utah Jazz would seem to indicate anything could happen, and it could be just around the corner.

The Jazz are currently 13-18 but have played their best basketball of the season over the last two weeks, having won six of their last eight games. They do have a very difficult stretch upcoming though, with Thursday’s matchup in New Orleans followed by a homestand against Miami, Dallas and a hungry Detroit (now losers of 27 straight), followed by a brutal 3-game trip to Boston, Philadelphia and Milwaukee before a home date with Denver.

Accross that stretch, the Jazz will likely only be favored in one game, and that is at home against the embarrissingly bad Pistons. Despite recently winning 6 of 8, if they go 1-7 during their next eight games and find themselves with a record of 14-24, change will almost certainly happen. Especially amoung the guard rotation.

Few players currently on this roster would be considered “untouchable,” though a couple more likey rank as highly unlikely to be traded. Even though we’ve already seen rumors about Lauri Markkanen potentially being available if the price is high enough, it would take a fairly unlikely pile of assets. Recent first-round picks Walker Kessler, Ochai Agbaji, Keyonte George and Taylor Hendricks are the others that would shock me if they were traded. Outside of that though… no one would seem to be off limits.

The Jazz haver a cluttered roster. Lots of solid players, but many who have not proven to be the option as a starter. Will Hardy has constantly been tinkering with the rotation, and a trade could help to clarify everyones role. Currently, I would say there are five rotational players for the Jazz that could very likely be traded by the February trade deadline: John Collins, Kelly Olynyk, Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton, and Talen Horton-Tucker. We are going to evaluate their seasons so far and rank them in order of who would bring back the most value for the Jazz.

5. John Collins

2023-24 Salary: $25.3 Million

Per Game: 14 points, 8 rebounds, 40% 3FG

I don’t know about you, but I honestly feel bad for Collins reportedly being back on the trade block. For years he was a top trade candidate every single trade deadline while playing in Atlanta, and after just 25 games with the Jazz it looks like he is right back there.

The Jazz have a very unique frontcourt situation because they play a 7-footer in Markkanen at small forward, but they also play non-shooting 7-footer in Kessler at Center. As the power forward on this team, you really have to have a unique set of skills to fit in.

Unfortunately, Collins just might not be that player. Olynyk has actually played that role better, and Collins may be more suited to come off the bench. Especially because it gives him the chance to play more center, which the numbers prove to be his better position. To be fair to Collins, he has played fairly well when you just look at his counting stats. He is averaging 14 points, 8 rebounds and is shooting 40 percent from three while attempting nearly four per game. He is also the team leader in double-doubles with nine on the season. The problem is those positive stats haven’t seemed to correlate to positive team play. He has a -11.1 net rating overall, and has been a minus-5.6 on offense and a minus-5.6 on defense.

Overall, the feeling is that Collins is still a good and productive player, but he isn’t malleable enough in his style to fit every team. It limits his market and likely decreases the value you can get out of him. This is a player who was just traded for this off-season and it only took an over-the-hill Rudy Gay (who was subsequently waived and isn’t currently on a roster) and a 2nd round pick. Only six months removed from that trade, it’s hard to expect the Jazz would get much more value than that. He is also making roughly 25 million per year over the remaining 3 years of his contract, which is sure to deter teams.

All things considered, the most likely Collins trade is one where the Jazz attach something to move his salary, similar to how the Hawks did. The upside to this trade is it would pave the way for Hendricks to begin taking on a larger role, and in the few games that he received higher minutes, we saw the flashes of what made him the ninth pick in this last year’s draft.

4. Talen Horton-Tucker

2023-24 Salary: $11 Million (Expiring)

Per Game: 11.4 points, 4.5 assists, 2.7 rebounds

During the preseason, I attempted to predict the Jazz’s starting point guard and ultimatey landed on THT based on his play to close last season. However, the final two months of a season may be the least consistent indicator of future success. That said, in the final 24 games of the 2023 season (19 starts), he averaged 17.3 points, 6.2 assists, and 4.8 rebounds. THT did get that starting role, but he got off to a rough start this season. In the first 19 games, he averaged just 9 points, while shooting only 36.6 percent. Something clicked in December though, and in nine games this month, he is back to averaging 16.3 points, 4.6 assists, on 49.5 percent shooting overall and 44.4 percent from three. His numbers in the past 9 games are much closer to the numbers we saw from the close of last season. 

So what do we think is real? The 16-17 points on solid shooting in 31 games across the end of last season and the past 9-games? Or is it closer to what we saw in the first 19 games to start this season?

If the Jazz want to trade THT, they are selling the impressive performance we have seen recently, and also highlighting the fact that he just barely turned 23 years old (bet you haven’t heard that before). He’s actually younger than Agbaji who is only in his second season. You are selling that he is young and can make his higher performing stretches the norm, and he is on a very team-friendly contract. He picked up his player option over the summer which means he is owed $11 million this year, but that comes off the books at the end of the season. A team give him the reins to see if he can sustain that production over a larger stretch of time, and would have the inside track to re-sign him if the experiment works out, or could simply let him walk otherwise. Perhaps a rebuilding team like San Antonio who could really use a more solid option at point guard to pair with Victor Wembanyama.

3. Collin Sexton

2023-24 Salary: $17.3 Million

Per Game: 15 points, 3.4 assists, 2.8 rebounds

Both Sexton and Horton-Tucker have been playing amazing basketball for the month of December. Despite that, it would not be shocking if at least one of the two was traded. Especially with the desire to give George plenty of opportunity to run the show.

Sexton has especially been impressive as of late. For the month of December, he is averaging 20.7 points, 4.3 assists, 3 rebounds, and is shooting 35 percent from three on 4.8 attempts per game. The Jazz are 7-5 during that stretch, which isn’t bad considering the time Markkanen and JC missed. We shouldn’t be too shocked with this performance though, considering he averaged over 20 points a game during his second and third seasons in the NBA with the Caveliers.

He is also having a positive impact for the lineups he is playing with. He currently has a plus-5.4 net rating for the season. Which isn’t something we have normally seen from Sexton throughout his career. Despite stretches of high level scoring, his production doesn’t have a history of making his teammates better and leading to wins. Sexton has a career assist average of 3.2 per game, compared to his career turnover average of 2.3. Per Cleaning the Glass, his career assist to usage rate percentage has been in the bottom 30 percent for his position since entering the NBA. That’s not great for a lead point guard. In the two seasons that Sexton averaged over 20 points per game for the Cavs, their Offensive Rating ranked 26th and 28th in the NBA, and they finished a combined 41-96.

The biggest question for teams potentially trading for Sexton will be if they feel his production can continue to be high for a winning team. Similar to JC, my personal belief is that he may be better suited in a score-first sixth man role. Either way, the presence of George, coupled with Sexton’s $18 million average salary over the next three seasons makes him an intriguing trade candidate for many teams.

2. Kelly Olynyk

2023-24 Salary: $12.2 Million (Expiring)

Per Game: 7.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 41.4% 3FG

Let it be known that this has nothing to do with how Olynyk has played since joining the Jazz. He is the type of player that everyone who plays with him loves. Olynyk is the embodiment of connectivity, making everyone around him better and more often than not making the right basketball play time and time again. That decision making doesn’t always reflect in his counting stats, but it shows in the advance metrics that tend to show his positive impact on the court. In a season where the Jazz have shown some real deficiencies, Olynyk has maintained a positive 2.6 net rating. The Jazz have an offensive rating that is 5.3 points per possession better when he is on the floor. 

The key is his passing. Olynyk only plays 21 minutes per game, but is averaging 4.6 assists per game. Per cleaningtheglass.com, he is in the 95th percentile in assist percentage for his position, and the 99th percentile for his assist to usage ratio.

So why would the Jazz trade such a positively impactful player? It really boils down to the direction the Jazz decide to go. If the direction is steering more fully into the rebuild, giving your younger players more playing time and looking to get as many assets as you can, then Olynyk is likely the player that gets the most back. He is on a $12 million dollar expiring contract, and as mentioned before, everyone loves playing with him. There is not a single playoff caliber team who would not gladly welcome Olynyk onto their team. He is also 32 years old and I expect he would like to play with a team that has plans on being a bit more competitive over the next two to three seasons.

Olynyk plays basketball the right way, so he is nice player to just hold onto to have influence on the younger guys on the Jazz. He is also a piece that likely gets you real value if you decide to trade him, and if you keep him for the rest of the season, you may lose the asset for nothing in free agency.

1. Jordan Clarkson

2023-24 Salary: 23.4 Million

Per Game: 17.6 points, 5.1 assist, 3.5 rebounds

I have long been a Clarkson defender. His shot selection bothers some on social media, but when he goes on a heater and those shots are going in, it is a sight to behold. There is a reason he is nicknamed the Flamethrower.

Since joining the Jazz, Clarkson has averaged 17.5 points per game and won Sixth Man of the Year in the 2020-21 season. Last season, with the departure of Donovan Mitchell, Clarkson was asked to step away from the Sixth Man role that maybe better suits his abilities, and stepped up as a primary scoring option and facilitator. Known as a shoot-first, ask questions later type player, he worked hard to change his game last season and became much more of a willing passer under Hardy. The results were very positive last season, as he had a career year and averaged career highs in points, assists and rebounds, and was one of 34 players who averaged over 20 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists last season.

That was last season though. This season has been a much different story. His scoring has not only been down, but his efficiency has dropped with it. He is currently shooting a career low on three-pointers at 30.3 percent. We did see an elite 5-game stretch in November where he scored 29.6 points, 4.4 assists, and shot 39.4 percent from three, so he still has that ability to “flame on” but it has been much more inconsistant than in years past. He has a negative 4.9 differential when he is on the floor this year, and the two variations of the starting lineup he has been a part of this season are a minus-8.3 and a minus-21.4.  Not that I am a body language expert, but there just seems to be something off with the normally fiery Clarkson.

The obvious explanation is that the writing seems to be on the wall with his time here in Utah. It was reported that the Jazz are open to trading him, and I’d be sure that he was made aware. The Jazz extended his contract this past off-season, but they made it a very appealing and tradable contract. He is currently making $23.4 million this season, but that salary drops to $14 million per year in the final two years. Similar to Olynyk, there are a lot of teams that would glady add Clarkson as an elite level scorer off the bench. They would also likely be appealing to JC because that would allow him to play more to his strengths in a score first role off the bench. If the Jazz are going to trade him, next to Olynyk, they would likely be receiving the most back compared to anyone else on this list.

No matter what happens, the Jazz should be an active team as the trade deadline nears.

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