The Why Behind Utah’s Frequent Shooting Woes

Over the past several seasons, Kyle Korver has been the league’s most accurate sniper, with Jazz teammate Joe Ingles right behind. With both on the roster, why is Utah ranked only 23rd in the NBA in three-point accuracy? (AP Photo / Craig Mitchelldyer)

Here’s a trivia gem: of the 30 NBA players who have made 350 or more three point shots over the past three seasons¹, who has the highest shooting percentage from long range?

Stephen Curry? Wrong! He’s actually third on the list at 42.2-percent.

Number two? Joe Ingles of the Utah Jazz at 42.7-percent. 

The runaway winner at 44.1-percent? Kyle Korver, also of the Utah Jazz.

Wait a minute… 

So, the Jazz have TWO players who nail threes more accurately than STEPHEN FREAKING CURRY! That’s as measured over a nearly 200-game sample, which is pretty hard to dismiss. With two such marksmen, how can the Jazz rank only 23rd in the NBA in long range shooting this year²? It doesn’t seem to make any sense.

The problem isn’t that Utah lacks quality shooters. It’s that they have serious shot distribution problems. Let’s use the celebrated shooting of the Warriors for comparison.

Golden State has four players shooting 37-percent or better from three this season: Curry (44.9-percent), Quinn Cook (43.3), Alfonzo McKinnie (37.7), and Jonas Jerebko (37.5).

The Jazz have four players shooting 37-percent or better as well: Thabo Sefolosha (50-percent), Kyle Korver (40.5), Joe Ingles (38), and Royce O’Neale (37.3). 

Yet where the Warrior’s four most accurate shooters are taking nearly 53-percent of their team’s long range attempts, Utah’s four most accurate shooters account for only 38.8-percent of attempts.

That’s better than a 14 percentage point difference, which is massive.

The same dynamic can be found on the three-happy Houston Rockets. Even during a down year, when they rank just above the Jazz in 22nd place in three point accuracy, almost exactly half (49.9-percent actually) of their long-range attempts come from players making 46-percent or better from three.

In painful contrast, most of the Jazz’s three point shots — 62-percent, in fact — come from players shooting between 29- and 34-percent. Giving six out of ten shots to mediocre to poor shooters doesn’t seem the best competitive strategy.

And it isn’t. The problem is, the Jazz have limited options to shift that shot distribution in their favor.

The biggest problem is that good as Korver and Ingles are from long range, neither have the modern NBA cheat code that is the off-the-dribble three. I don’t mean a single dribble with a sidestep for a shot. I mean the ability to initiate the pick and roll or isolate a defender, move fluidly with the ball over multiple dribbles, and then drill the three despite a solid contest by a defender.

Having that type of player, almost always a guard, means a team can get a reasonably efficient look from three nearly any time they want. It isn’t only Curry and Harden, though a photo of each appears in the dictionary under “off-the-dribble shooter” as each chucks 11 or more attempts while shooting well³. Kemba Walker, Paul George, Damian Lillard, Buddy Hield, D’Angelo Russell, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Chris Paul, and even Spencer Dinwiddie all take numerous off-the-dribble attempts from downtown yet are shooting at a 35-percent or better clip.

The Jazz guards’ deficiency in this area is glaring. Ricky Rubio (33.8-percent) and Raul Neto (33.3) are managing only middling percentages on mostly wide open shots. Meanwhile, Donovan Mitchell (29.3) and Dante Exum (29.8) are actually shooting worse from long range than Derrick Favors (30.6). Let that sink in.

The problem is compounded by the fact that Utah’s “stretch four,” Jae Crowder, is smack dab in that middling area of accuracy as well, matching Rubio’s 33.8-percent on the season.

Mitchell, Rubio, and Crowder combine for 17 attempted threes per game. That’s exactly half the team’s attempts. Thus far this year, they’re making 5.5, good for a measly 0.97 points per shot.

Meanwhile, Korver and Ingles are making 4.2 threes on only 10.8 attempts, a much richer 1.17 points per shot. But it’s difficult to get them more quality attempts because those shots have to be generated for them by the rest of the offense — which is complicated greatly when opponents simply see no need to check Utah’s guards beyond the three point line. A stretch four with limited stretch-i-ness doesn’t help much either.

The situation is complicated even further by Utah’s utter lack of reputation shooters beyond Korver and Ingles. Sefolosha and O’Neale are both shooting the ball well this season, but even so, how many defenses will panic at a duo who combine to make only a single three a game?

There’s no reason to believe any other player on the roster will blossom into a substantial long distance threat. Even if Mitchell returns to last season’s form, making 34-percent of his threes, that would be unlikely to instill much terror in opponents on its own.

Contrast that with Klay Thompson, shooting 34-percent this year after never being beneath 40-percent from three in his career. Or Eric Gordon, career 37-percent shooter from distance making a piddling 30-percent so far this season. Despite their struggles, these players still exert substantial gravity on defenders. Their rep says the awry shooting is likely to end any moment.

So the Warriors and Rockets will almost certainly improve their long range accuracy as skilled shooters on their rosters find their typical form again. Most Jazz player’s typical form is, well, pretty much what we’ve seen this season.

So is Utah doomed to dwell amongst the NBA’s most shooting inept despite having two of the world’s best shooters on their roster?

There is some cause for hope. Since the Korver trade, Utah has shot a stellar 38.1-percent from three. If carried throughout an entire season, that would be good for fourth in the league.

But smart money is on reversion to the mean, possibly a vicious one. In that same span, look at how well a bevy of Jazz players have shot the long ball: Sefolosha 65-percent; George Niang 55-percent; Crowder 42-percent; Neto 40-percent; O’Neale 39-percent; Rubio 38-percent; even Exum 35-percent. 

Utah won’t fall back to the 32.6-percent mire they floundered in to start the season. Korver and Ingles are genuine snipers and will continue to cash in on their ten-odd attempts per game. Plus, the attention they draw will give teammates continued open shots. Some of those will go down. 

But the fact is the Jazz have made worse than 30-percent of their threes in 13 of the team’s 37 games this year. They did that only 20 times all last season. Probability says fans should brace for more than another seven such stinkers before the playoffs, which isn’t what you’d expect from a team with the league’s two most accurate shooters.