The Year of Parity, Chapter 3: One-Third Down & Still Searching for Big Threes

Who is Utah’s third most valuable player? Steve continues his looks at the new NBA order of star duos, not trios, reigning the league. (David Sherman via espn.com)

For the first time in a very long time, the NBA is balanced. The era of superteams has apparently passed and the year of parity has begun. For once in a very long time, eight to ten teams could make their case as NBA Finals contenders, and potentially even find themselves there. One such team resides in Salt Lake City. The Jazz have legitimate hope. How did the NBA end up here and will this trend last the entire season are two questions to answer not just now, but all the way until June 2020.  Our Steve Godfrey is taking an extended look at the NBA’s 2019-20 season: The Year of Parity. Chapter two can be found here. 

Chapter Three: One-Third Down

When Sports Illustrated released their NBA Preview magazine, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and the Clippers’ supporting cast graced the cover. “Welcome to the Reinvention,” read the headline and a special feature written by Michael McKnight dove into how the Clippers became a contender, a long step away from the laughingstock of yesteryears.

The next article featured the reunion of James Harden and Russell Westbrook titled “Alumni Reunion,” followed by “Think Big,” a focus on Brett Brown and the Philadelphia 76ers. Lastly was a special feature on the Denver Nuggets, who would rise this upcoming season due to Jamal Murray’s ascension. SI scouting reports indicated that the Nuggets would take the 1 seed in the West, but the Clippers would win the NBA Finals over the Milwaukee Bucks. 

Notice, however, that nowhere in that description, nor in pages 38-92 of the Sports Illustrated’s NBA preview issue, were the Los Angeles Lakers mentioned.

Now, we’re nearly a third of the way into the 2019-20 season and it’s the Lakers who boast the best record in the west at 25-7. Sure, they have failed to beat the foes with whom they share the Staples Center, having recently fallen to the Clippers on Christmas day. But they tied a franchise record with a 17-2 start and both LeBron James and Anthony Davis are legit MVP candidates.

Dan Devine of the Ringer gave credit for the hot start to  James who continues to be the “King of Queens” when it comes to NBA chessboard. With AD down low, James is playing point forward and seems deliberate on getting his partner involved. According to Devine, “James-to-Davis is the highest-volume assist combination in the league this season by a considerable amount, according to pbpstats.com; nearly 28 percent of AD’s points have come directly off a LeBron dime.” At the time of this writing, James leads the NBA in assists per game, 10.8. 

You might have also noticed that the Sports Illustrated preview had little emphasis on the other early season best, the Milwaukee Bucks. On the other side of the conference, the Bucks are rolling to an NBA-best 29-5  record, fueled by Giannis Antetokounmpo vying for another MVP, and perhaps a DPOY, trophy addition to his mantle. His sidekick, Khris Middleton, missed seven games with a thigh contusion, but has continued to dominate in a quiet manner that should lead him, alongside Giannis, to the All-Star game in February. A stat of note for the Bucks shows that the team is a complete package, winning 17 games of its first 33 games by double digits including nine by 20-plus points.

Will A Big Three Emerge or Assemble? 

What interests me the most when it comes to the Lakers, the Bucks, and much of the rest of the NBA is that the rosters have stars and depth, but not necessarily a trio in the ways fans have been used to in the past. For example, the trio that has outscored opponents the most when together, +218, is from Denver: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Will Barton. Those aren’t star struck names, but they are a trio you would expect in this type of conversation. Fifth best, however, is from Milwaukee with Giannis, but it’s him with Eric Bledsoe and Wesley Matthews at +186. You have to scroll down to 30th best to find the Lakers, where the third star in the equation is Danny Green (outscoring opponents +127 in in 591 minutes). 

As the New Year begins and the trade deadline creeps closer, it will be interesting to see if contenders hold steady to this new status quo of superstar duos leading teams with depth and chemistry, or if someone will flinch and begin a search for a third star to win it all. Would a Kevin Love type name get someone over a hump? Is he enough a star to help complete a Superteam? What about Jrue Holiday or Kyle Lowry? Will Bradley Beal ever become available? Or, will development for the third star come from within, as someone like L.A.’s Kyle Kuzma or Boston’s Jaylen Brown take a  major step forward?

Either way, trade deadline dreams and armchair GMs are in full swing for good reason. According to Keith Smith, a contributor at YahooSports, at least one NBA GM thinks the deadline could be more impactful than usual. 

Starting to hear a lot team’s think this could be a busy trade deadline. One executive told me: “No good free agents this summer. Only a couple of teams with cap space. And 2021 is overrated. A few great guys that most of us can’t get. That opens up trades for right now.”

— Keith Smith (@KeithSmithNBA) December 29, 2019

ESPN begs to differ, however, as they recently posted an article on ‘Real or Not Real’ trends to monitor in 2020. To them, the chance that a trade swings the balance of power in the NBA is labeled as not real. They pointed out that while a mid-season trade shifted title odds last year with the Marc Gasol addition in Toronto, not many others have had the same results. In fact, as they researched and wrote, “Nazr Mohammed of the 2005 San Antonio Spurs was the last player added via an in-season deal to average at least 20 minutes per game in the playoffs for the eventual champions.” 

It was also of interest and note that both the Clippers and Lakers, as title contenders, are angling more for additions off the waiver wire (hello, Andre Iguodala, oh, and apparently Darren Collison,too) rather than mid-season trades with limited trade assets and draft picks. As Kevin Pelton argues, “Most likely, the championship will be decided by moves made last summer rather than those ahead of the Feb. 7 deadline.” 

Back To Parity

Another interesting article popped up recently at The Ringer by Kevin O’Connor on the NBA moving into the decade of 2020. Sticking with our theme of parity, O’Connor wrote: 

The Warriors juggernaut dissolved this offseason, and now there’s parity. I would give 12 teams a nonzero percent chance of winning it all this season. The Lakers and Bucks have the best records in the league, but plenty of challengers loom that could ruin LeBron’s bid for a fourth title or Milwaukee’s odds of keeping Giannis. In the West, the Clippers are neck and neck with the Lakers; the Rockets, Nuggets, Jazz, and Mavs stand out too. In the East, the Sixers and Celtics remain major threats to the Bucks, and the Heat, Raptors, and Pacers shouldn’t be overlooked either.

It’s true. The balance is there and that list of teams can be argued for or against in any big game or future playoff series. If you look at parity across the league at this specific January 2nd, 2020 moment,  the Eastern Conference has six teams above .500 while the Western Conference houses seven. 

The two rising stars from each conference are leading their teams to hot starts. Photo courtesy the Dallas Morning News.

In the East, Milwaukee, Philly, Boston exist in the mix but the Miami Heat are as hot as the name suggests with Jimmy Butler as the soul of the team, but Bam Adebayo as their best player. Bam, with the best first name in NBAlore, has entered the groupchat for emerging NBA star and even an All-NBA Center type of guy, too. He is a modern day big, runs the floor, rebounds with the best, is nearly automatic for a double-double, and is boasting a PER that is climbing into Top-35 overall player range. At age 22, and yet in his third year, his play is becoming scary. He is becoming their anchor for offense and defense. When you pair that development with a star acquisition in Butler, things look good. When you hit on no-name talent like Tyler Herro (big shot maker and 13.7 ppg) and Kenderick Nunn (Isaiah Thomas-like in 16 points/game) things look great which is what the weather in Miami indicates. Currently, the Heat are third in the East with a 25-9 record. 

In the West, the Dallas Mavericks are surprisingly in that mix with the reigning Rookie of the Year Luka Doncic looking like an MVP candidate while averaging 29 points per game, 9.1 assists, 9.6 rebounds and shooting 47% from the field. Kristaps Porzingis is his running mate, but the two are taking some time to gel. Porzingis is averaging 17.5 points and nine rebounds, but his shooting percentage and usage rates are the lower than his career averages. However, the Mavs are a NBA League Pass must-watch, and that won’t end soon. Like the rest of the NBA, they are searching for their third star as they are using role players like Tim Hardaway Jr., Seth Curry, and the never-aging J. J. Barea to put up the supporting cast points. 

And Now: The Jazz

Is this the Jazz’s big three? Pic via Clutchpoints.com

Our Utah Jazz would be in a similar boat. The closing five — their four regular starters and Joe Ingles — all average 10 points or more per game with Donovan Mitchell leading the way at 25 and Bojan Bogdanovic over twenty as well. It was the bench and the Ingles/Royce O’Neale who-starts-and-who-does-what situation that led to some early season struggles, but newly acquired Jordan Clarkson will be counted on to be the main contributor off the bench and early returns peg him as a double-digit scorer, too.

As for O’Neale and Ingles, that question will be worth monitoring again once Mike Conley returns from his injury. The eye test and the stats test both show, however, that Ingles has been a different player and a better contributor since being reinserted into the starting lineup. The same eye and stats test also show that O’Neale is Utah’s most valuable 3-and-D player and a pest on the perimeter for opposing teams. 

If you were to pick Utah’s main threesome, the first response would have to be Mitchell, Conley, and Rudy Gobert. Arguably, these three are the team’s best players. The trio has been promising, but inconsistent in working together offensively and defensively mainly as Conley learns the system, these two teammates, and adjusts with and without his knicks and knacks. However, they are still a plus-trio as they’ve outscored opponents by 80 points in the 409 minutes played together.

Now, if you think Bogdanovic should be part of the Jazz feared threesome, you’ll see how essential he is, regardless of teammate, when on the floor. He alone is part of three trios that rank in the top-20 of NBA trios and Net Rating. Yet, the best, 7th best in the entire NBA, is Gobert, Mitchell, and O’Neale who are +179 together.

So What? I’m Not Sure. Yet. Are you? 

With a third of the season down, trends do tend to become trustworthy and expectations become rationalized and realized. Contenders and pretenders are sorted out, but some wiggle room exists with development, trades, or injuries added into the scenario. In another third, will the story look the same? After game 82? My personal bet would be that the parity would look much the same. 

It’s fun to see a handful of teams with a real shot to make noise as a result of this balance that has been created around the league. However, it would be other bet that when the Finals roll around next summer, it’ll consist of a team from LA against a team from Milwaukee or Philly. Two or three years ago, that prediction would be Golden State against LeBron, so going from two teams as the shoe-in to four teams is a step forward. Those more optimistic than I might even argue that my prediction is flawed and others beside the four I mention will be in a Conference Championship or playing on the NBA Finals logo.

To me, that’s what makes the NBA season so fun and tantalizing in the year of parity.