This Time Last Season: Underperforming Jazz Ride the Rollercoaster Again

How does this year’s squad compare to last year after 28 games? (Melissa Majchrzak via utahjazz.com)

From time to time, Tyler Crandall checks in on the Jazz relative to how they were performing at the same point last season. In early November, he compared the Jazz’s first 10 games to the same stretch from 2017-18, and now with a third of the season behind the current squad, he checks in again.

This time last year

In comparing the 2017-18 Jazz with the current season to date, there are some similarities and some huge differences. Of course,  Rudy Gobert had already gone down with injury by this point last season, which threw a wrench into the Jazz’s plans. Donovan Mitchell had already taken over Rodney Hood’s starting point and was showing signs of potential stardom, such as his breakout 41-point performance against the New Orleans Pelicans. 

Because of that context, the feeling wasn’t quite as bleak about the 13-15 Jazz after 28 games last season. This year’s identical 13-15 start has some feeling hopeless, but at this point last year, Gobert had recently returned from his first knee injury of the season, Donovan had begun to break out, and despite a tough upcoming December, fans could taste success.

That is, until the 4-game losing streak from games 25 to 28. That skid included a loss to OKC, the start of a very rough December with a schedule that everybody thought was really difficult at the time. Of course, it was a tough schedule, but it doesn’t feel like it holds a candle to the insane travel schedule the Jazz have been dealt this year. 

Underperformers

Just like last season, this year’s Jazz have underperformed through 28 games. But it was different for last year’s team. With only 11 of their 28 games being road games and a good homestand, the Jazz failed to take advantage. The Gobert injury was a huge factor there. But this brings us to a point. Are the Jazz really underperforming? Yes and no. In terms of schedule, the Jazz really aren’t far off from where you would expect them to be. But in style the Jazz have looked at times weak and effortless, with no consistent effort on both sides of the floor. 

Presently, the Jazz rank 21st and 12th in offensive and defensive ratings of 107.9 and 108.5 respectively, per Basketball Reference. At this point last year, the Jazz were better in both categories: a 108.2 offense and a 104.7 defense. That’s somewhat surprising since the Jazz had missed Rudy for extended time and relied instead on Favors as the starting center, who isn’t as fierce a presence on interior defense. That really highlights just how poor the defense has looked at times this season. 

The upside to all of this is that we know the Jazz defense can get much better. We also know the schedule has been insane. The Jazz have played 18 of 28 away from Salt Lake City. To state it again for those in the back, the Jazz have played seven more road games through their first 28 than they did last season.

And in terms of underperforming last season, the Jazz also dropped games to Phoenix, Miami, Brooklyn, New York, and Chicago for five of their 15 losses. These were obviously very winnable games against “bad” teams. This is important to mention because the Jazz haven’t even played five games against teams of that same low caliber this season. Now, those are just excuses, but these are also facts. 

The Upside

A key here is that, despite the rollercoaster, there’s still some silver lining. And I’m not just here trying to dole out small helpings of hope.  The Jazz are not in a hole impossible to pull themselves from. They are not yet 9 games under .500 — the low point they reached in mid January last season — and the contrast even from last season to this is striking. If last year’s Jazz had this starting schedule and travel, along with the same injuries to Gobert, it’s likely they would have been far worse off than 13-15. It’s not hard to imagine that version of the team winning as few as 9-10 games on this schedule as Gobert healed and Mitchell found his way. 

It’s also possible that 13-15 is not the low point this season and the Jazz are not at their  19-28 “We will be fine”¹ moment yet. And that’s okay.  There is some small relief ahead for a matchup with Miami at home and Orlando in Mexico City, but the following games include Portland twice, Golden State, OKC on another back-t0-back, Houston, Philadelphia, and Toronto. Ouch. 

It might will get worse before it gets better, but again, the upside. However hard the starting months have been just makes the months in 2019 that much easier. The easy-ish schedule that led to a 29-6 finish of the year would be a gauntlet stretch compared to the closing half of the 2018-2019 Jazz season. Seriously, go take a look. 

It’s been a rollercoaster, but if it wasn’t, we wouldn’t be Jazz fans.