Trade Season Starts: Which Jazz Players Are Most Likely To Move?

Who in the Jazz’s core is most likely to be involved in the NBA’s trade season? (Mitchell Bernstein via espn.com)

Very suddenly, the NBA’s trade season is here.

So much has been up in the air regarding the various transaction windows that govern the league’s 30 teams, including when exactly teams would be allowed to resume making trades. Then on Sunday morning, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowki (who else?) ended the suspense with a gentlemen-start-your-engines tweet: NBA teams can make trades as soon as 12 EST (10 MST) on Monday.

It could be a big year for trades, as a stagnant salary cap will leave some executives searching for more creative ways to upgrade talent. One deal is reportedly already done: the Lakers are rumored to be sending their No. 28 pick in Wednesday’s draft to Oklahoma City in exchange for veteran guard Dennis Schroder. And that could be the tip of the iceberg.

The Jazz, on the other hand, have only limited trade capital heading into this week. Jazz brass had already dipped into the club’s asset cache for other trades, including the ones that landed Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson in Utah.

But just in case the Jazz do make it interesting between now and the December 22 start of the season, we’re revisiting an annul tradition: the trade likelihood ranking.

A lot of factors influence a player’s likelihood of being dealt, including salary, market value, remaining contract and of course the Jazz’s actual willingness to part with him. We’ve put all of those variables into the super-fancy, top secret, mathematically infallible trade likelihood algorithm and come up with the following ranking.

OK, trades are hardly ever that scientific, but here’s a pretty good guess as to who is more or less likely to be included in a Jazz trade package in the coming days. All 17 Jazz players are included, grouped into five categories — except for two who are in a grouping of their own.

Pending free agents

17. Justin Wright-Foreman

16. Emmanuel Mudiay

15. Jarrell Brantley

We start with these three because they are almost literally untradable. As pending free agents, these three can’t be traded unless it’s part of a sign-and-trade transaction when free agency opens on Friday. But all three of these players are likely to be minimum-salary signees, and such players are never really part of S&T deals. Suitors wouldn’t need to engage the Jazz to add any of these three at their market rate.

There is a fourth Jazz free agent who might be a more viable candidate for S&T, and we’ll get to him later in the ranking.

Not actually untouchable, but… untouchable

14. Donovan Mitchell

13. Rudy Gobert

There are very few players in this league who are truly off limits, and they are nearly all perennial MVP candidates. The Jazz’s two All-Stars fall just short of that designation, but they’re pretty close to untradable. The number of stars for whom the Jazz would legitimately consider swapping these two is very small — and mostly very unrealistic.

No, the Jazz are not going to trade Gobert for Marcus Smart. Or Myles Turner. Or Montrezl Harrell. Or Aaron Gordon. Come on. Those guys are good role players, some even borderline stars but Gobert, as you’ve read over and over again on these pages, empirically has a top-15 impact on winning. You just don’t trade All-NBA level for “solid starter” level, unless you literally have no other choice.

Mitchell is somehow even less likely to be moved. He’s a young player still on his rookie deal, which means the Jazz have some control (via matching rights) that they don’t have with Gobert. Plus, Mitchell’s playoff leap this past summer made him look like another top-20 star in the making, if he’s not there already.

The only way the Jazz trade either guy is if they’re basically forced to at some point. In this age of player empowerment, that could happen. But for now, it sounds like both stars want to keep working toward their goals in Utah, so they’ll stay put, this week and beyond.

Low salary filler

12. Nigel Williams-Goss

11. Juwan Morgan

10. Miye Oni

9. Rayjon Tucker

8. Georges Niang

7. Tony Bradley

Next we arrive at a group of modestly priced, modestly valued pieces. Everybody here was either outside the Jazz’s 2019-20 rotation, or on the fringes of it. Also, everybody here has a very small salary figure attached, making it unlikely that he would be the central figure in a deal.

In other words, since these six guys aren’t likely to be traded on their own, their likelihood of being dealt is a function of someone else’s likelihood of being dealt. By definition, that means they’re less likely than most of their peers to be dealt, since their inclusion is basically dependent on someone else moving first.

Niang probably has the most trade value here, since he has a solid NBA skill (his marksmanship) and has been the closest to rotation regular status. But I would rank Bradley as slightly more likely to be dealt. The latter’s salary is higher, making it more likely that he could mathematically help get a deal over the finish line. And it seems as though the Jazz would more willingly part with him than with Niang — especially if they go after an upgrade for that bench big man spot, something virtually everybody expects them to do.

After Bradley and Niang, it gets a bit “eye of the beholder” in terms of how you’d rank the four minimum-salary dudes entering their respective second years. I listed Tucker next because he likely has more market value. Remember, he was pursued by many teams after an impressive G League start, to the point that the Jazz had to guarantee his rookie salary plus $340,000 of his upcoming year’s salary just to get him. That means there were other bidders, and some of them likely still have him on their radars. Oni has shown borderline rotation-quality defensive chops in spot minutes, and Morgan acquitted himself decently when called into postseason duty. Williams-Goss saw just 50 total NBA minutes in his rookie campaign.

Worth more to the Jazz

6. Joe Ingles

5. Mike Conley

It’s not that Ingles and Conley don’t have value in the marketplace; it’s that their value on court (and culturally) to the Jazz is probably higher.

Let’s start with the fact that both had what could statistically be described as off years. We’ve talked a lot all summer about the context and circumstances behind both guys’ statistical dips; Conley’s otherwise solid numbers were dragged down by the month or so he played hurt, and the season suspension meant Ingles never had a chance to bounce back from his habitual winter shooting funk. That’s fine. But it means that trading either guy now would be trading at a bit of a low point in terms of asset value.

On the other hand, both guys are pretty important to how the Jazz play. Utah wants the ball in Mitchell’s hands a lot, but it’s also just plain factual that the team plays better when Mitchell has a real point guard alongside him — and Conley and Ingles are the two point guards, at least functionally. 

For the season, Utah beat its opponents by 3.3 points per 100 possessions when Mitchell and Conley shared the court, and they were +3.7 when Mitchell and Ingles were on. But they posted an abysmal -6.6 when Mitchell was on the court without either of those two veteran ball movers.

Both Conley and Ingles are heady pick-and-roll practitioners and solid spot-up shooters. More to the point, they’re both just NBA grown-ups. They take some of the pressure off of Mitchell without taking the opportunity away from Mitchell, which sounds like a contradiction, but it’s actually a tough needle to thread. They’re both really important to who the Jazz are, and nothing the Jazz got back in a deal for either guy would likely yield exactly the same stuff, tangibly or intangibly.

Now that Conley is reportedly NOT opting to terminate his contract early, you could argue that it makes some sense for the Jazz to see what his expiring $34.5 million could get them on the open market. But the same Jazz execs who were giddy last summer after finally landing their longtime basketball crush are unlikely to give up after a single year in which Conley’s health was the main culprit behind his ups and downs. Once he was healthy enough to be himself, Conley gave the Jazz nearly 20 points per game in the playoffs, and on 48-53-86 shooting splits. From what I gather, the Jazz are excited to see what he could look like more fully deployed in year two in the Jazz ecosystem.

Sign-and-trade

4. Jordan Clarkson

There is one pending free agent whose market value might make him a candidate for S&T — if the Jazz decide it’s time to move on.

Clarkson undoubtedly helped rescue the Jazz from a midseason slump. Conley was hurt at the time and the bench lacked viable pick-and-roll threats. They needed to find a way to unleash someone who could simply create with the ball in his hands. Mitchell could, but having him run too many minutes with the bench units was costing him important starter minutes in tight fourth quarters.

Getting Clarkson was the perfect answer. He’s mostly a mid-efficiency iso gunner, but in the right context, that’s the perfect staple to keep an offense afloat for a few minutes while Gobert, the team’s lone pick-and-roll monster, caught his breath.

Assuming the Jazz find a bench big capable of running P&R while Rudy rests, they might not need the same iso heroics from Clarkson, and it’s fair to wonder what his role would be if the three other ball-handling guards (Mitchell, Conley and Ingles) are healthy, to say nothing of Utah’s second-leading scorer, whom we’ll discuss shortly.

In a vacuum, the Jazz would prefer to keep Clarkson around. But let’s be honest: there’s also a chance that the ultimate price tag might be higher than what a team typically pays for it’s fifth best overall creation option, or fourth rotation guard. If that happens, it might be worth seeing if there’s a team out there that’s interesting in acquiring Clarkson but that doesn’t have the means to do it without the Jazz’s help on a S&T. Doing so could yield a future asset, or a rotational piece on a more modest salary.

S&Ts aren’t extremely likely because of the number of parties involved, but I’d still rate this as more probable than a deal involving Conley or Ingles.

Honest-to-goodness assets

3. Royce O’Neale

2. Bojan Bogdanovic

Here are two guys whose current value actually lines up fairly well with their reasonable contract values. The caveat here is obvious: the Jazz really like both guys.

O’Neale is a prototype of one of the most challenging roles to replace in the NBA: big, physical wings who can guard multiple positions and hit open jumpers. He’s extremely valuable even if this is the final version, and it’s safe to say it’s not; just in the past year, we’ve seen him make noticeable improvements at show-and-go drives and at moving the ball more decisively when the help comes.

Only 16 wings in the entire NBA are above-average at defending iso scorers AND P&R ball handlers, while also posting an overall positive D-PIPM and shooting 35% or better on catch-and-shoot threes. Sixteen. And the list is a real who’s who of the league’s best two-way talents and/or top 3-and-D prototypes. All-Stars Kawhi Leonard, Pascal Siakam, Khris Middleton, James Harden, Gordon Hayward and LeBron James are on it. It also features known 3-and-D weapons like Wesley Matthews, O.G. Anunoby, Trevor Ariza and Gary Harris.

O’Neale and Ingles are two of the 16. It’s just a ridiculous luxury for the Jazz to have two players who are good at precisely all of the things that are most important in the role of a modern NBA wing. 

O’Neale had parlayed that unique value into a contract extension that takes effect this week, but the reality is that, at $8.5 million to start, that’s still a very tradable deal. It’s just not entirely clear that the Jazz have any interest in trading him.

Same goes for Bogdanovic, who finished 10th in the league in 3-pointers made, fifth in free-throw percentage, 27th in scoring average and first in walk-off buzzer beaters. At $17.9 million for next season, Bogdanovic is essentially making mid-tier starter money while functioning as a borderline star for Utah (at least on offense).

Like Clarkson, he’ll likely see some reduction in his role if everybody is healthy next season and the Jazz add a bench big to soak up some possessions with P&R. So one could argue that this could be the peak value opportunity for Bogey, a sell-high moment for the Jazz. He’s 31 and still has three years left on that deal, but right now he has a real glow about him after helping Mitchell and Gobert carry the team through Conley’s absences and intermittent struggles. He might never have trade value this high again, but that doesn’t mean the Jazz should trade him.

Among other considerations, they should think about optics. Bogey is already one of the most significant free agent signing in the club’s history, the only ready-made 20-point scorer to choose Utah in his prime. (Mehmet Okur and Carlos Boozer rose to star level only after they became Jazz men, and Joe Johnson was well off his prime by the time he inked in Utah.) Getting a long-term commitment from a guy at Bogey’s level could be an important step in changing the perception of Utah as a free agent destination. But they’d lose some of that if they sent him packing just a season later.

Bottom line: if the Jazz have an opportunity to swing some trade magic, it’s more likely that it will involve O’Neale or Bogey than Ingles or Conley. But truth be told, the safest bet is that all four are on the roster on December 22.

Category of his own

1. Ed Davis

Davis is neither modestly priced nor especially valuable in basketball terms. So why does he land here?

Simple: the Jazz may need to move his $5 million off their books to accomplish everything they want to do. And at that salary figure, the likelihood is high that he gets thrown into even some minor deal to help even out the money.

It’s also not like he’s purely salary ballast. Some teams will remember that he was one of the NBA’s top bench bigs heading into 2019 free agency. He didn’t fit in Utah because he wasn’t any kind of threat as a roll finisher, but not every team needs that from their third or fourth big in the rotation. If some team whose guards mostly have the ball in their hands just needs a few minutes of elite rebounding per half, they could do a lot worse than to check with the Jazz on Davis’ value, especially if they have their own small contract they want to get rid of.

Let’s say Stanley Johnson, and out-of-rotation Raptor, opts into $3.8 million in Toronto, where Davis had 2.5 decent years at the start of his career. Would Toronto rather pay Davis $5 million to soak up some rebounds as opposed to paying $3.8M for Johnson to sit and then still having to pay $2.6M for a veteran minimum big? That’s the one kind of deal where I can picture Utah moving Davis on his own without attaching a pick. But the point here is that, at just $5M, there are a lot of ways a Davis deal could happen, and the Jazz are motivated sellers.

If they don’t trade him, they may just cut him and eat the $5 million. The empty roster spot might be more worth it to them than the small chance of being able to deal him later in the season. They could also stretch his remaining salary out over three seasons, paying him $1.67M per year instead, but my guess is they would rather take the hit all at once and try to keep the cap sheet as clean as possible for when Gobert’s and Mitchell’s new contracts take effect.

Other Jazz trade assets

• 2020 No. 23 draft pick — although it can only be traded after the draft, and not before Wednesday evening. (The Jazz may view this as an important time to use the 23rd pick well to add a potential rotation piece at a low salary, since their salary picture is about to get more complicated.)
• GSW’s 2021 second-rounder
• Utah’s own second-round picks starting in 2022 — in 2024, the Jazz will own the better of their own or Cleveland’s pick
• Utah’s own first-round picks, with some complicated protection language — Utah owes a pick to Memphis (Conley deal) that will be conveyed sometime between 2021 and 2024, and they are prohibited from trading future picks in consecutive years. So the earliest they can trade a 1st without some kind of conditional language negotiated in would be 2026, but they could also tweak the language to ensure it conveys two years after the Memphis pick does. Most likely, their debt to the Grizzlies will be satisfied in the 2022 draft.
• Draft rights: Technically, the Jazz still own the exclusive NBA rights to a few oveseas draftees, most notably Ante Tomic. But these rights are worth little, since it is unlikely that any of those players are NBA-bound. (Tomic, for example, just signed with Badalona of Spain’s ACB league.)