Using Past Teams to Chart a Championship Path

Can the Jazz find a template in recent NBA history as they look to unseat the King? (Via espn.com)

The Utah Jazz are a championship contender. Long-time fans may feel imposter syndrome with the current success. After all, Jazz teams in recent past have had hot months, but ultimately weren’t at the same level as eventual playoff foes. Does this team really belong in same conversation as the Laker, Clippers, Bucks, Sixers, or Nets? Many around the league think so.

The Athletic’s John Hollinger recently wrote: “First, if this isn’t a contender, then I don’t know what a contender looks like. For years we’ve mentally put this team in the ‘others receiving votes’ category, but no longer. Utah is a legitimate threat to break the city of Los Angeles’s stranglehold on the top of the Western Conference.”

The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor said in his video breakdown: “The Jazz are really, really good, and have so many different ways of scoring on you and stopping you … This eight-game marathon won’t necessarily change the fact they will be a formidable playoff opponent, but it could however show that they undeniably belong in the finals conversation.

Charlotte Hornets coach James Borrego also sees Utah as a real threat. “The biggest thing is they defend. I mean, they’re an elite defense,” he said of the team that defeated his Hornets last week, 138-121. “They pursue, they fly around at guys, they can stay home and limit 3s. That’s what allows them to be a title contender this season.”

They are the number one seed in the league, have the best net rating, and are the only team with a top-5 ranking in both offensive and defensive rating.

Inevitably, being a contender invites comparisons to teams of the past, and that can be particularly puzzling for a team that doesn’t have a superstar in the tier of LeBron James, Steph Curry, or Kevin Durant. There are plenty of elite regular season teams that couldn’t make it all the way: the 60-win Hawks of 2014-15 (lost to LeBron in the ECF), the 7-second-or-less Suns (two WCF appearances), the James Harden Rockets (lost in second round or WCF four straight year) the Lob City Clippers (never made it out of the second round). Even the John Stockton and Karl Malone-led Jazz never made it to a championship. Recent Jazz teams have been compared to this group, and will be until they prove otherwise.

But there are championship teams that give a team like Utah hope: the 2004 Pistons who interrupted the Lakers’ dynasty, and the 2014 Spurs who beat the James’ star-laden Heat team. Both are frequently cited proofs of concept for a team that doesn’t have a top-5 talent and relied more on collective contribution.

So what do we make of this year’s Jazz team? Can they model these exceptions to the typical championship mold, or are they closer to the the group of very good regular season teams that didn’t quite make it?

Let’s take a closer look at some of those examples.

The 60-win Hawks

This is a fun comp for the Jazz for a few reasons:

• Four different Hakws earned All-Star recognition: Paul Millsap, Al Horford, Jeff Teague, and Kyle Korver. The Jazz hope to earn three All-Star selections by virtue of top seed.
• Quin Snyder was an assistant coach for the Hawks.
• The Hawks lacked a superstar, but found success through their depth and system.
• They ultimately were swept by LeBron in the conference finals. The Jazz will likely have to to go through LeBron at some point, too.

So are the Jazz the 60-win Hawks? There’s some additional context to consider. It’s important to note that Atlanta lost DeMarre Carroll and Thabo Sefolosha in the playoffs. Without those two, they had no way to stop LeBron. Ultimately James’ playoff transcendence would’ve probably trumped the Hawks regardless, but we don’t know what would’ve happened it Atlanta was at full strength.

Further, there are some signs that Utah can be more successful. For one, Utah’s .800 winning percentage is especially impressive in the Western Conference. The Hawks played in an easier conference, and their point differential was more indicative of a 55-win team. Utah has players with higher offensive ceilings in Donovan Mitchell (who has already shown that ceiling in the playoffs), and a better top-end defender in Rudy Gobert (Horford was fantastic, but not at the same level).

To be fair, the Hawks made it to the Conference Finals — that deserves respect. This Jazz team has not. They will have to prove it, but they have the tools to do so.

The Harden Rockets

Comparison have been made to the Rockets, specifically the 2017–18 Rockets, who finished 65-17 and went up 3-1 on the Warriors in the Conference Finals before missing 23 consecutive threes in a historic flameout. This was a really good team, finishing 1st in offense and 6th in defense. They were perhaps the closest of any Western Conference team to dethroning the Warriors dynasty.

The model? Shoot a historic amount of 3s. The Jazz are also shooting a historic amount of 3s. For comparison, this Rockets team shot 42 3s per game at 36% accuracy. The Jazz are also shooting 42 3s per game, but at 42% accuracy.

They way they get those 3s is very different. Everything in Houston ran through Harden, and he’s had several well-documented playoff slumps. The Rockets lived and died by Harden. In contrast, the Jazz have a more balanced approach, finding 3s through ball movement and a variety of ball handlers. However, they don’t have a player with the ceiling of Harden. It remains to be seen whether Utah’s approach can work where Houston’s did not.

The 2004 Pistons

Enough words have been written about the poster child of non-superstar champion model. I can’t blame anyone making this comparison, as the parallels are easy to see. The Pistons had a multi-DPOY-winning anchor in Ben Wallace. The Jazz have Gobert. The Pistons had a steadying veteran point guard in Chauncy Billups. The Jazz have Mike Conley. The Pistons had a dynamic shot creator in Richard Hamilton. The Jazz have Mitchell. Both teams have solid rotations and stingy defense.

But this Pistons team is now 17 years old. It’s a different era, and it’s getting harder to use them as a close comparison. But they handily beat a star-studded Lakers team, and the Jazz hope to do the same.

The 2014 Spurs

Brad Stevens compared this version of the Jazz to the 2014 Spurs… it's a comparison I've been hearing more frequently.

— Andy Larsen (@andyblarsen) February 10, 2021

It may seem unrealistic to put this year’s Jazz side-by-side with a dynastic team that had multiple Hall of Famers, one of the best coaches of all time, and one of the ten best players ever. Oh, and also multiple Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard.

Here’s why this comp is defensible: Tim Duncan was 38-years-old at this point. Kawhi Leonard was only the third-highest scorer on the team that regular season and was considered more of a defensive specialist before his breakout playoffs play. Tony Parker was largely looked at as their best player. The team played *beautiful* basketball. JJ Redick in his podcast with Mike Conley compared guarding Utah’s ball movement to the 2014 Spurs:

“That’s what it felt like last night (against the Jazz), it felt like the Spurs circa 2014. That’s the best approximation of what it felt like last night.”

This Spurs team had Finals experience and Hall of Fame leadership that Utah simply does not have. But they can hope their continuity and unselfishness, combined with 3-point-shooting and sound defense can find them similar success.

The 2015 Warriors

Okay. This may seem like a crazy comp, but Steve Kerr himself made the connection:

Steve Kerr on the Jazz: "They're where we were three or four years ago."

— Connor Letourneau (@Con_Chron) January 24, 2021

The 2015 Warriors were not projected as a championship team before the season started. Steph Curry was sensational, but his 24/8/4 regular season averages weren’t otherworldly. Steve Kerr decided to start Draymond Green, a DPOY-level player. They brought in Andre Igoudala, a 6MOY candidate to lead their bench. The Warriors were deep, hungry, and employed a boundary-pushing style of play. You may think that team was full of shooters, but in truth, only four players shot 38% or better from 3 (to be fair, Curry and Klay Thompson shot 44%). Their rotation could all pass, defend, and put the ball on the floor.

This year’s Jazz team has a dynamic offensive star with a steady sidekick. It has a DPOY anchor and 6MOY candidate. The roster is deep, full of players who can shoot and defend. They’re playing a game-breaking style of basketball, shooting and making 3s at an unprecedented level.

In the playoffs Curry went to a different level, averaging 28/6/5. Mitchell made a similar playoff leap last postseason, averaging 36/5/5. Some of that could’ve been matchup or bubble noise, but he proved capable of superstar play when the stakes were high.

We can make these comparisons on paper, but Kerr, Draymond, Igoudala, Klay, and Steph all proved their mettle at the highest level. The Jazz have yet to do that. But the blueprint is not too dissimilar.

2019 Raptors

Let’s table the fact that the Raptors had a clear superstar in Leonard, one of the few stars to ever lead multiple teams to a Championship. We can debate whether Utah’s trio of stars in Mitchell, Gobert, and Conley can collectively provide what high-end stars like Leonard give you in a playoff setting.

Where these teams are similar is the top-8 rotation depth. Kawhi was sensational, averaging 30/9/4 in the playoffs. Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam were steady co-stars. But Toronto had five other players that played at least 15 mpg in the playoffs: Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Danny Green, Fred VanV leet, and Normal Powell. All could shoot and defend.

This is how they won their playoff matchups: by winning bench minutes and never playing exploitable players. This is how the Jazz can win, too. If there’s a path for Utah to topple the top-tier contenders, it’s in targeting a weak link while providing none fo the opponents. We’ve seen Quin Snyder do this repeatedly in the playoffs. They attacked Carmelo Anthony and Michael Porter Jr. mercilessly. Do the LA teams have similar players? Can Montrezl Harrell, Wesley Matthews, or Lou Williams be abused in the playoffs? Even proven defenders like Marc Gasol and Patrick Beverly are showing signs of age. It will be fascinating to see.

The Path to the Championship

The season is already a third of the way done. It’s enough to declare that this Jazz team is for real. But Utah still has plenty to prove. They have a tough stretch of games this February, and they have to stay healthy and focused the rest of the season. Things can go wrong fast.

Holding on to the No. 1 seed would be huge. A likely playoff scenario would be: very winnable round 1 in the playoffs, a Denver-calibre round 2, and an LA team in round 3. Forcing the LA teams to play each other is Utah’s best case scenario.

A second or third place finish means the Jazz get a winnable round 1 opponent, but then the challenge of beating two LA teams in back-to-back playoff rounds. It’s a grim proposition. A fourth or fifth place finish is grimmer still, comparable to last year’s path that involved Denver in the first round, followed by likely matchups with both the Clippers and Lakers, if the Jazz survive that long.

Matchups aside, a No. 1 seed guarantees homecourt advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs, and as Sarah Todd wrote, home teams win 76% of their series. Assuming the Jazz have a significant fan presence at that point, this could be a very real advantage.

Will this team go the distance? Realistically, the odds are against them. But it sure is fun for that possibility to be as good as it is now. Could this team flame out, get injured, or disappoint in the playoffs? Sure. But enjoy their success right now. It’s been one of the most enjoyable stretches in my Jazz fandom, and that’s largely because this team has a real shot at contention.