Utah Jazz Future Hopes Riding on Mike Conley Trade

Mike Conley cost the Jazz some future pieces. Will he prove worth it? (Joe Murphy via nba.com/grizzlies)

Five years ago, the worst trade to ever happen in the NBA occurred when the Boston Celtics completely fleeced the Brooklyn Nets. Boston sent Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Jason Terry and D.J. White to Brooklyn in exchange for five players, three first-round draft picks and one pick swap in 2017. Brooklyn thought they were adding star talent to a team ready to compete for a championship, but the stars they received were aging and not one lasted more than two seasons with the Nets.

The Nets went from a presumed title contender to a lottery-bound team for years to come, but without the picks to show for it. Boston began one of the quickest rebuilds in history because the Nets’ draft picks ended up producing two blue chip prospects in Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. The key aspect of this trade that killed the Nets franchise was that they still owed draft picks after the players they traded for were gone. It’s hard to rebuild without picks.

Since this trade, general managers and owners have overvalued their draft picks and have been scared to become the next Brooklyn Nets. At least until this past summer, when the L.A. teams got caught up in an arms race.

Both the Lakers and Clippers sent out multiple young players, multiple first-round draft picks and pick swaps to land franchise stars. Both L.A. teams look to be smarter than the Nets were since the players they traded for, Anthony Davis and Paul George, are in their prime and are top ten-ish players in the league.

Still, Lakers acquisition of Davis cost them Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram (both were No. 2 overall picks) and Josh Hart to New Orleans along with three first-round draft picks and a pick swap right in 2023. This haul looks to be better than the deal the Celtics received. The Lakers are going all in on Davis, but he has a couple risks attached to him. First, he is a free agent this summer and if things go wrong, he could bolt. Second, his injury track record isn’t good. He’s only played more than 70 games twice in his career.

The Clippers sent out an even greater package for Paul George (and in a sense Kawhi Leonard). The Thunder received Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danilo Gallinari, plus five first-round draft picks and two picks swaps from the Clippers. L.A. is hoping that bringing a couple of the best two-way players in the league will generate multiple championships. The risk is that Leonard’s knee may never be truly healthy again and both players are free agents again in the summer of 2022. If their plans go awry then they have multiple years of draft compensation to give, when they have no idea how good they will be.

The Utah Jazz went all in on adding a star too, just not to the extent that the L.A. teams did. This summer the Jazz traded for Mike Conley Jr., giving up Jae Crowder, Kyle Korver and Grayson Allen (last season’s first-round draft pick) and two additional picks: this past summer’s 23rd pick in the draft and a lightly protected draft pick to convey during the years of 2021-24. The most likely year it will convey is 2022, due to the protections on it.

That’s also the rumored year of high schoolers being allowed to re-enter the draft, meaning the talent in that draft should be much deeper. Another aspect to remember is that Rudy Gobert’s contract ends after the 2021 season and Donovan Mitchell will be a restricted free agent the following season, unless he and Utah agree to a rookie contract extension before then. It is also unclear if Conley will be a Jazz man then too.

The Jazz have given up a draft pick that could come back to bit them. Like the other teams who took a swing at adding stars, the Jazz are taking a risk in this trade. Conley is older (32), around the age when smaller guards like him begin to slow down. As of now, there isn’t any sign of this but sometimes it comes out of nowhere.

Next summer, after only a year in Utah, Conley can end his contract early, which would make him an unrestricted free agent and able to sign wherever he wants. While it’s unlikely he’ll do that and forego nearly $35 million, either way, in two years he could be gone and the Jazz would still owe a pick to Memphis.

If the Jazz win big in the next couple of seasons then who cares, but it could set back the franchise a bit if worse comes to worst. One item to consider in this debate is how valuable are draft picks. Outside the top ten, only 50 percent of the draftees picked will become rotational players.

Protections put on traded picks can help protect teams if things go bad. The pick the Jazz still owe Memphis is protected (details here). If the Jazz give up the 23rd pick and another non-lottery pick it won’t affect the team much, but if things go wrong and the Jazz lose out on a chance to add top 10 talent, it will prove costly.

The other concern in trading all of the team’s picks, like the Clippers and Lakers did, is that they no longer have their picks to use as a resource to improve. Contenders will use their picks to trade for veteran players to help them on their championship run. Picks can also help unload a bad contract, so the contender can use that money to add a more helpful player. Having draft picks makes life easier for contenders.

This summer, a few teams went all in on the short-term win-now mode at the expense of the long-term aspect of their franchise. A championship of course validates the risk, but if a deal doesn’t directly result in rings, was it worth it?

Time will tell which plan is the most successful and it could be different for each team. The Jazz took a calculated risk in trading for Conley and there can’t be a reward without some risk being taken.